SWC75
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: S24, S32, S25, S19, S14, S13, S19, S27, S27, S10, S37 = 247/11 = S22 with 853 yards to go.
KO: M21, M35, M35, S25, S42 (onsides)
Total: Syracuse 1 Minnesota 4
P: 27 to M15, 32 to M38, 34 to M17, 21 to M21
Total: Syracuse 2 Minnesota 2
FG: Good from 40, Good from 38
Total: Syracuse 2 Minnesota 2
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 2 Minnesota 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Minnesota 6
1r: 5, 0, 1, 0, 1TD, 17(p), 0, 29, 8, 5, 3, 2, 6, 6
Total: Syracuse 8 Minnesota 6
1p: 16, 5, I, I, 8, 9, I, 21, 31, 4, 9, 11, 25, 12, 6, I, 7, I, I, 12(15), I, 4, I, 6, 10, I
Total: Syracuse 17 Minnesota 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 25 Minnesota 15
2r: 8(5), 20, 7, 2(1), 12, 5(3), 1(7), 7(12), 9(4), 1(3), -1
Total: Syracuse 8 Minnesota 3
2p: 1(5), -7s, I, 9(9), 8, 29(6), 4(15), 2(11), Interception-TD, -1, I, 18, 6, I, I, 12
Total: Syracuse 6 Minnesota 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 Minnesota 13
3r: 4(9), 4(2), 2(1), 1(2), 9(6), I, 3(2), 6(4)
Total: Syracuse 5 Minnesota 3
3p: 5(17), I, 6(5), -9(s), I, 28, I
Total: Syracuse 2 Minnesota 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Minnesota 8
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Minnesota 0
4p: 2(3), I, 8TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Minnesota 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Minnesota 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 21 Minnesota 12
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 26 Minnesota 26
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 47 Minnesota 38
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +5, -5, -10 Syracuse 1 Minnesota 4
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 55 Minnesota 48
Big Plays: 20yd run, 21yd pass, 31yd pass, 29 yd pass, 25yd pass, 29yd run, 27yd punt return, 28yd pass
When Minnesota had the ball:
Drive Starts: M21, M15, M38, M17, M35, S25, M45, M40, S42 = 382/10 = M38 with 618 yards to go.
KO: S25, S19, S13, S27, S27
Total: Syracuse 2 Minnesota 3
P: 34 to S24, 46 to S32, 55 to S14, 40 to S19, 37 to S10, 20 to S37
Total: Syracuse 2 Minnesota 4
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Minnesota 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Minnesota 4
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 Minnesota 11
1r: 6, 10, 6, 8, 2, 4TD, 2, 0, 3, 0, 9, 1, 6 -10
Total: Syracuse 6 Minnesota 8
1p: 6, 21, 11, 15, I, -5(s), I
Total: Syracuse 3 Minnesota 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 9 Minnesota 12
2r: 4(4), 6, 0, -2, 2, 3(15), 3, -1, -3, 2(4)
Total: Syracuse 7 Minnesota 3
2p: I, 7(8), I, 10, I, 25TD, 5(13)
Total: Syracuse 4 Minnesota 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Minnesota 6
3r: -7, 3(1), 10(8), 4(12), 3(7), 0, 0
Total: Syracuse 5 Minnesota 2
3p: -9(s), 8(4), 12(8), 20TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Minnesota 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Minnesota 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Minnesota 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Minnesota 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Minnesota 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Minnesota13
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 8 Minnesota 10
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 26 Minnesota 23
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +2, +15 Syracuse 0 Minnesota 2
Game total when Minnesota had the ball: Syracuse 30 Minnesota 36
Big Plays: 21yd pass, 20yd TD pass, 25yd TD pass, 70 yard interception return, 72yd Kick-off return, (and (A 64 yard fumble recovery was called back)
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 85 Minnesota 84
Comments: Field position was huge in this game. Minnesota averaged starting 16 yards closer to the goal than we did. In ten possessions, that an extra 160 yards of offense for them. The kicking game was obviously a huge factor. That’s a big difference between this team and the 0218: we had an excellent kicking game in all departments and consistently favorable field position.
It was a strange game. We out-gained them 477-215 and had 27 first downs to 14 yet only ‘won’ one more play than they did. We must have had more big plays than they did – and we did. We had 7 played from scrimmage of at least 20 yards plus a 27-yard punt return. The Gophers had only three plays of more than 20 yards. The problem is, none of our big plays went more than 31 yards. They had two huge plays and almost a third with a 70 yard pick six, a 72 yard kickoff return and a 64 yard fumble return called back. Their huge plays trumped out big plays. We also had some good drives that fizzled and resulted in field goals. Both teams scored four times but theirs were all touchdowns.
This was +1 game for Syracuse (85-84). Here are the 5 closest games to that result in the Babers Era:
2016 Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1 SU won 31-17
2017 Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1 SU won 24-17
2017 Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2 SU won 27-24
2018 Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2 SU lost 37-44
2018 Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2 SU won 40-37
We’d been pretty fortunate in these games to this point – but they can go either way.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: S24, S32, S25, S19, S14, S13, S19, S27, S27, S10, S37 = 247/11 = S22 with 853 yards to go.
KO: M21, M35, M35, S25, S42 (onsides)
Total: Syracuse 1 Minnesota 4
P: 27 to M15, 32 to M38, 34 to M17, 21 to M21
Total: Syracuse 2 Minnesota 2
FG: Good from 40, Good from 38
Total: Syracuse 2 Minnesota 2
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 2 Minnesota 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Minnesota 6
1r: 5, 0, 1, 0, 1TD, 17(p), 0, 29, 8, 5, 3, 2, 6, 6
Total: Syracuse 8 Minnesota 6
1p: 16, 5, I, I, 8, 9, I, 21, 31, 4, 9, 11, 25, 12, 6, I, 7, I, I, 12(15), I, 4, I, 6, 10, I
Total: Syracuse 17 Minnesota 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 25 Minnesota 15
2r: 8(5), 20, 7, 2(1), 12, 5(3), 1(7), 7(12), 9(4), 1(3), -1
Total: Syracuse 8 Minnesota 3
2p: 1(5), -7s, I, 9(9), 8, 29(6), 4(15), 2(11), Interception-TD, -1, I, 18, 6, I, I, 12
Total: Syracuse 6 Minnesota 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 Minnesota 13
3r: 4(9), 4(2), 2(1), 1(2), 9(6), I, 3(2), 6(4)
Total: Syracuse 5 Minnesota 3
3p: 5(17), I, 6(5), -9(s), I, 28, I
Total: Syracuse 2 Minnesota 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Minnesota 8
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Minnesota 0
4p: 2(3), I, 8TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Minnesota 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Minnesota 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 21 Minnesota 12
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 26 Minnesota 26
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 47 Minnesota 38
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +5, -5, -10 Syracuse 1 Minnesota 4
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 55 Minnesota 48
Big Plays: 20yd run, 21yd pass, 31yd pass, 29 yd pass, 25yd pass, 29yd run, 27yd punt return, 28yd pass
When Minnesota had the ball:
Drive Starts: M21, M15, M38, M17, M35, S25, M45, M40, S42 = 382/10 = M38 with 618 yards to go.
KO: S25, S19, S13, S27, S27
Total: Syracuse 2 Minnesota 3
P: 34 to S24, 46 to S32, 55 to S14, 40 to S19, 37 to S10, 20 to S37
Total: Syracuse 2 Minnesota 4
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Minnesota 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Minnesota 4
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 Minnesota 11
1r: 6, 10, 6, 8, 2, 4TD, 2, 0, 3, 0, 9, 1, 6 -10
Total: Syracuse 6 Minnesota 8
1p: 6, 21, 11, 15, I, -5(s), I
Total: Syracuse 3 Minnesota 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 9 Minnesota 12
2r: 4(4), 6, 0, -2, 2, 3(15), 3, -1, -3, 2(4)
Total: Syracuse 7 Minnesota 3
2p: I, 7(8), I, 10, I, 25TD, 5(13)
Total: Syracuse 4 Minnesota 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Minnesota 6
3r: -7, 3(1), 10(8), 4(12), 3(7), 0, 0
Total: Syracuse 5 Minnesota 2
3p: -9(s), 8(4), 12(8), 20TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Minnesota 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Minnesota 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Minnesota 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Minnesota 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Minnesota 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Minnesota13
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 8 Minnesota 10
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 26 Minnesota 23
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +2, +15 Syracuse 0 Minnesota 2
Game total when Minnesota had the ball: Syracuse 30 Minnesota 36
Big Plays: 21yd pass, 20yd TD pass, 25yd TD pass, 70 yard interception return, 72yd Kick-off return, (and (A 64 yard fumble recovery was called back)
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 85 Minnesota 84
Comments: Field position was huge in this game. Minnesota averaged starting 16 yards closer to the goal than we did. In ten possessions, that an extra 160 yards of offense for them. The kicking game was obviously a huge factor. That’s a big difference between this team and the 0218: we had an excellent kicking game in all departments and consistently favorable field position.
It was a strange game. We out-gained them 477-215 and had 27 first downs to 14 yet only ‘won’ one more play than they did. We must have had more big plays than they did – and we did. We had 7 played from scrimmage of at least 20 yards plus a 27-yard punt return. The Gophers had only three plays of more than 20 yards. The problem is, none of our big plays went more than 31 yards. They had two huge plays and almost a third with a 70 yard pick six, a 72 yard kickoff return and a 64 yard fumble return called back. Their huge plays trumped out big plays. We also had some good drives that fizzled and resulted in field goals. Both teams scored four times but theirs were all touchdowns.
This was +1 game for Syracuse (85-84). Here are the 5 closest games to that result in the Babers Era:
2016 Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1 SU won 31-17
2017 Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1 SU won 24-17
2017 Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2 SU won 27-24
2018 Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2 SU lost 37-44
2018 Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2 SU won 40-37
We’d been pretty fortunate in these games to this point – but they can go either way.