The conclusion given the little amount of actual information out there seems to be that there was a complaint. Winston's name came up somehow as part of it. The police contacted his attorney, and cleared him without needing to interview him. The fact that the description doesn't match by a long shot may be a part of that, or Winston may have a credible alibi. His lawyer says he's provided affidavits that show Winston wasn't involved.
The investigation is "ongoing" because a complaint was made, and nobody has ever been arrested. Just because Jameis is cleared doesn't mean they close the case, unless the police are prepared to declare that no crime took place at all and call the girl a liar. Which they wouldn't and shouldn't do. But just because the investigation is ongoing, it doesn't mean the investigation into Winston is ongoing. But apparently somebody got a hold of it and decided to leak it. While the temptation is to blame Alabama or the SEC or whatever, the fact that it went to TMZ means it was probably somebody just making some money. And as far as I can tell, TMZ didn't report anything that wasn't true, only that he came up in the investigation.
The reason it was turned over to the AG now is not because there was some change in the case (unless there's more that we don't know), it's being reported it was turned over because of the media inquiries stemming from TMZ getting ahold of it.
I hope that's the scenario. There are a lot of things that to me fly in the face of this being a guilt and cover-up situation, but I suppose I could always be surprised.
First, at the time this happened, Jameis Winston was just a big time recruit, certainly not a star, and not even the presumed starter. It's not like there would be incredible pressure on the police to cover it up.
Second, while in general athletes get away with a lot, Tallahassee law enforcement doesn't really have a rep of taking it easy on athletes like they do in Gainesville. They generally arrest and prosecute. Years ago Travis Johnson was put on trial on a pretty dubious rape charge, and acquitted in 30 minutes by an all-female jury. Obviously you know they prosecuted Peter Warrick in the midst of a Heisman season and national title chase, and that was for basically having a shoplifting "hookup." We just had a player arrested and charged with sexual assault this summer. I'm not saying nothing has ever been covered up for an athlete, but Tallahassee law enforcement is generally not considered to play that game.
Also, I would be VERY surprised that Jimbo Fisher would roll the dice with this if it wasn't 100%, totally not an issue. Not because he's of some great moral character necessarily (although he has been pretty intolerant of offenses so far), but because having this come up as a distraction and a disruption is absolutely the most un-process, un-Saban scenario imaginable. If there was any fire here at all, and Jimbo took a chance anyway, it would be opposite of everything we think we know about him. That's certainly possible, but seems unlikely.
I have to think if Jimbo had even a nagging doubt of this disrupting the season, he goes with Coker, a guy that most certainly could have won 10+ games this year for us. It's not as if FSU was expected to play for a national title this year, they weren't even the ACC favorite. He wasn't coaching for his job or anything. I just don't see this like a Chizik/Auburn situation where they're going to roll the dice and take their chances it all works out because it will be worth it. That is not they way Jimbo has presented himself at least.
Who knows, maybe that's wrong and this is a legit crime that was covered up. I would certainly be disappointed.