wow JS looking good!!

[SoBristol]

Statistics can also be totally bogus in measuring shooting.
Take this example -- Dion steals in the backcourt, breaks away, makes a one-handed jam.
Or, near the end of the shot clock, closely defended, James takes a 15 ft jumper (no one else doing anything to get open) and cans it.
Both guys 1 for 1 -- same stats, 2 points each. But the skills and situations had no comparison.

Or Keita was 4 for 4, on stuffs from 2 ft out. Fine, but that won't be there against UConn or North Carolina at the end of the shot clock. Stats don't tell you that.

What James was doing yesterday (mid-range and 3 pt shooting by a 6ft 7 in forward who can elevate) was something this team lacks, but will need against some defenses.

 

[BlackKnight76]

I use linear regression to analyze sports statistics for a living. I used to do empirical work for the Blue Jays. I currently represent a client purchasing a major sports franchise, and I'll be in a pro front office within six months. Don't worry, I'll keep ya updated . I'm no slouch on statistical analysis.

 

[orangefan13]

For a Soph going to a JR one can make the argument Comparing last years stats to this years is as ignorant as saying he will be any better then last years play. It goes both ways.

 

[fanfanclubclub]

. Sometimes a player improves. How are you modelling that? Your rather primitive analysis of JS is predicated on the theory that players are statues that can't or don't improve their skills or approach to the game...Why do you want to act like everyone who thinks that is not worthy to bow at your feet?

I didn't mean to give that impression at all. I'm not sure what I said that was so offensive, but I take it back. You raise some good points, but I don't think Southerland's performance against this poor competition is any more meaningful than his performance last year against Colgate, Iona, Morgan State, etc (or Scoops hot start last year).

 

[fanfanclubclub]

JB kindof agrees though.

He said postgame "James really saved the first half. He made a bunch of shots or it would have been a close game" He said.." Thats not the way you want to play its not a good way to play."

Thanks, JB articulated the point better than I did. IMO, efficient offense is the most important part of NCAA basketball. Relying on jump shooters is not a great strategy, so I am bearish on players who do little more than shoot jumpers.

Oftentimes, Syracuse plays really lousy offense, and us fans all end up praising whoever's jump shots happen to fall: Scoop, GMAC, Moten, etc, whoever scored. Sometimes, ironically, the shooters-and-scorers are actually the players most responsible for making our offense stagnant.

That creates a weird situation where our leading scorers end up being the players who hold us back. If Southerland is taking so many jump shots, that he is one of our top 3 players in FGA: odds are, our offense must be playing poorly. Just like last season, where the mere fact that Jardine led our team in field goal attempts was highly indicative of the team's problems. Look how much better the team is without Jardine taking so many shots (kudos to scoop). IMO, we will look even better with JS lowering his usage as well. It's great to have shooters who look for the extra pass first, and knock it down later. JS has never shown me that patience: he could hit 10 in a row, but until I see that patience, I worry.

I am not yet convinced that Southerland can be a key part of a Kentucky-UNC caliber offense, let alone defense. Even if JSouth goes out and scores 20, and Fair only scores 4 points: as long as Fair is doing all the little things on both sides of the ball, C.J.'s performance is usually more impressive to me. I'm sure Mookie would outscore BMK every day of the week: but BMK is the much better player right now.

 

[AlaskaSU]

He doesn't put the ball on the deck during a game but I've seen him fancy dribble when he is messing around although standing in one spot. I also notice, like everyone else, that he has a most unnatural gate, like some vertebrae are fused. He can sky but he shied away from the boards last year. Coincidence?

I've seen enough this year to know that South will be an important part of the team. He is a specialist and a very proficient one. His specialty happens to be scoring points from mid-range and out. I'll take it.

As to his improvement. Linear regression is irrelevant. Think curvilinear. By the end of next week everyone will agree.

 

[jordoo]

I am not yet convinced that Southerland can be a key part of a Kentucky-UNC caliber offense, let alone defense. Even if JSouth goes out and scores 20, and Fair only scores 4 points: as long as Fair is doing all the little things on both sides of the ball, C.J.'s performance is usually more impressive to me. I'm sure Mookie would outscore BMK every day of the week: but BMK is the much better player right now.

You don't have to be convinced of anything. All you have to do is stop dumping on the kid for playing some great bball to start this season.

 

[fanfanclubclub]

Seriously man, what is wrong with you?...nut job post recently on the football board and now this.

Uhh, my "nut job" post on the football board was that Nassib is not a top 50 QB. Many Cuse fans agree. What was "nut jobbish" about that post?

Who the cares what James did last year?

One of the topics of this post is whether "James has done this before." For empirical approaches, last year's data is relevant.

Like almost all of the younger guys, he has moved his game up a notch.

James is not one of the younger guys, and I disagree that he has improved. He's always been a real good shooter, he's just lost in the sea of elite talent here.

I care about THIS year, and oh by the way...if your arguement is solid, you don't have to factor in data from a time that no longer exists to make your point.

This year is a very small sample size against lousy competition. Solid arguments ought to include sample sizes bigger than 4 games.

How about if someone described your height as an average between your current height and your height at 6 months old? Would that be valid? Of course not. But that's more or less what you are doing.

No I am not. I am comparing a 21 1/2 year old James Southerland to a 20 1/2 year old James Southerland. I am not comparing a 6 month old toddler to a grown man.

James is playing well and deserves court time. In fact, he probably deserves to be starting ahead of Christmas.

I disagree. I think he is our 10th man, and we play a 8.5 man rotation. I don't want to spent time investing our early season in an offense led by our 10th man taking jump shots.

Can he keep it up against tougher competition? I have no idea, but then again I have no idea if a lot of the other guys...particularly the frosh...can either.

Obviously, I am very convinced that he cannot keep this up against better competition. Might he score well against Florida? Sure, but over the long run, I do not think he can justify minutes when it really counts. We only have 5 spots on the floor.

As far as "gunners taking over the offense", a few names come to mind who have done that in the past at key times; GMac, Rautins, Devo, Jimmy Lee, Greg Kohls, and the list goes on and on.

I would hate to have Devo or GMAC on this team. Senior Rautins would be nice, but I'd hate frosh-soph-junior version. Lee and Kohls played a different game.

As Charlie Brown of Peanuts fame once said "Tell your statistics to shut up"

I don't know man, Southerland's true shooting percentage from last season is a relevant thing to bring up.

 

[fanfanclubclub]

You don't have to be convinced of anything. All you have to do is stop dumping on the kid for playing some great bball to start this season.

I'm not dumping on him. I've said a dozen times that he is a very good college player, competing for one of five spots on the floor, or one of 8.5 spots in a rotation, on an amazingly talented team.

We only have so many pre-conference games. If James is, in reality, our 10th man, then it is obvious that it hurts Syracuse's championship chances to spend our early season games investing in an offense led by our 10th man shooting jump shots.

I want to see James develop his game by lowering his usage rate, improving his rebounding/post defense, and looking to make the quick, efficient pass: haven't seen that yet.

A few posters have pointed out that Southerland's mid range game will open up the lane for us, and I do think I've under-appreciated that part of Dirty's game.

 

[fanfanclubclub]

I'm sure it will

I was disappointed that my previous comments regarding Nassib weren't recorded in his football posters' database. I feel unloved when the crazys ignore me...

It wasn't a "database." I simply re-quoted a bunch of ridiculous pro-Nassib quotes from three threads that were about a week old: just like I did to your post above Dick. The posters who were embarrassed reacted by: 1) insisting that Nassib is still better than Collaros and Daniels; and 2) pretending that I had made a database.