Regarding the money, I agree it will be significantly more down the road. I guess my point is that difference in the first couple of years will not come close to offsetting a $24 million exit fee...but it would if it were in the $5 -$6 million range.
With football, I think things will be about the same. I honestly don't think the opponent makes a big difference right now. There are only a handful of schools that make a really positive impact here (USC, ND, etc.). and they aren't going to play in the Dome, at least not when they don't have to. All things being equal, I think it does down a little but the most important thing here is whether we are winning or not.
For basketball, yes, I think we will take a hit. Let's assume that the statements by Dr Cantor that SU will play some home games in MSG that were later recanted, kind of, by Dr Gross, were not true.
No question that home games against Duke and UNC (maybe we get one a year) will be major events. Pitt will remain an interesting game and a schedule highlight, though I don't think we can even count on a home and home with them each year. Who else? I don't think any of the other teams in the ACC are going to bring fans to the Dome.
We are leaving a conference where what, 11 teams made the NCAA tournament last year? We had somewhere in the neighborhood of 9 or 10 are ranked during that season (I think we have 8 or 9 this year too), we had 6 or 7 ranked in pretty much every poll last season. It is a conference Syracuse founded and played in for 32 years. From it, SU established some of the best rivalries in the history of Eastern basketball. It is without question the best conference in the country, we play a ton of ranked or almost ranked teams and there are lots of great games to watch in the Dome each season. It was a pretty special place.
The ACC has a proud history but it has been down for a while and it will be down when we join it. There aren't going to be as many games against ranked teams, we are losing a lot of traditional rivalries, the fanbase has to start from square one building hatred over all the new teams...I just don't see the attendance remaining at current levels. I think it has to go down somewhat. Not a collapse but a definite decrease. Too many Clemson, Wake, BC, GT, UM, FSU, UMD, UVa, VT, NC St snoozers.
If they decide to move some home basketball games to MSG, things really get interesting and not in a good way.
I hope some of the downtrodden lost sheep ACC hoops programs find their way and become good soon.