Any thought regarding this comment by MCW?

[alphaorange]

If the buzz is that he will be a lotto pick, he would be a fool not to go. Next years class is going to be a monster. This years class has been considered very weak for a long time. Next year's class has been just the opposite. There are a lot of top flight guys in next years draft and if he doesn't show major improvement, they may think his ceiling is lower. If he gets advised he'll be a lottery pick, he pretty much HAS to go.

 

[bozophobe]

If he were to stay, what would Cooney or Patterson do? Boeheim isn't exactly known for his 5 guard death punch maneuver. In the long term, transfers have been more common than altruistic red shirts.

 

[Consigliere]

It's all $$$ and sense at the end of the day.

MCW, as has been noted here, is already 21 and will be 22 before the college basketball season starts next year.

If he stays another year, he loses a year of earning potential. One extra NBA year is at the about $400,000, minimum. Does that year lost outweigh the potential injury risk?

I'd love for him to come back, but it would not be a wise choice.

Consider the $$ and sense in this scenario. MCW spends the offseason in the weight room and gym, adds 20 lbs of muscle so he becomes a better finisher and improves his perimeter game to the point he adds a consistent 3 - point shot. If taken 15th in the 2013 draft, based on the rookie salary scale he would be slotted to make $1.4M, $1.5M and $1.6M (total $4.5M) his first three years with the first two guaranteed. With the improvements noted say he moves up to 5th in 2014. Using the 2013 figures that's $2.8M, $2.9M, and $3.1 M so he'd make more in his first two years than all 3 if he leaves now.

We can debate to the end what the right move is now (and for the record I think he goes), but the numbers can present a case for staying as well.

 

[bozophobe]

Regarding MCW's unsatisfying comment, I completely understand that. No mention here yet of the house fire situation? That, and the fact his team just got knocked out. He's sure better with the media than Boeheim, though.

 

[ClamOtto]

With rare exceptions (Melo) these guys will never be as big stars ever again as they are in college. Playing in front of 30K in the Dome, regular national TV appearances, rabid fan base, cover of Sports Illustrated, etc. And that gets multiplied by 10 in the Final Four. I'm not saying it outweighs the lure of money, but for some it could also be a factor.

 

[bozophobe]

Consider the $$ and sense in this scenario. MCW spends the offseason in the weight room and gym, adds 20 lbs of muscle so he becomes a better finisher and improves his perimeter game to the point he adds a consistent 3 - point shot. If taken 15th in the 2013 draft, based on the rookie salary scale he would be slotted to make $1.4M, $1.5M and $1.6M (total $4.5M) his first three years with the first two guaranteed. With the improvements noted say he moves up to 5th in 2014. Using the 2013 figures that's $2.8M, $2.9M, and $3.1 M so he'd make more in his first two years than all 3 if he leaves now.

We can debate to the end what the right move is now (and for the record I think he goes), but the numbers can present a case for staying as well.

Great points, but he'll never add 20 pounds of weight in one year. Not this year anyway, unless he makes love 5 ways to a turkey baster full of Jose Canseco's private stash. With his frame, 10 might be adequate, though.

 

[orange_cream]

For everyone saying well he would not want to come back because he would not be a lock for the top 10 of the draft. Do you really think that is what he's thinking? If he is thinking that then he's mentally weak. There is no chance hes thinking to himself I am leaving because this year I can be a high pick.

It comes down to

Leaving:
I cant turn down that much guaranteed money

Staying
I want to graduate
Coach Boeheim and my parents want me to improve my jump shot
I want the chip

 

[Orangezoo]

With rare exceptions (Melo) these guys will never be as big stars ever again as they are in college. Playing in front of 30K in the Dome, regular national TV appearances, rabid fan base, cover of Sports Illustrated, etc. And that gets multiplied by 10 in the Final Four. I'm not saying it outweighs the lure of money, but for some it could also be a factor.

exactly ... add to that .. Noah and Horford are doing ok in the NBA from what I hear... its not necessarily a guarantee that jumping earlier works out better in the long run. Personally I think if you are an underclassmen and top 10 is out of the question - coming back makes sense.

Every kid is different. MCW is super competitive and you could see how badly he values winning vs making a name for himself. The way he jumped out of the gate against Indiana - that will to get after it and win speaks volumes. Add to that this ultimately became his team as we got to the BET and you saw him getting everyone where they should be - he is a real leader of this group with CJ as the silent leader. He would have that again. Also don't discount him seeing Melo's jersey in the rafters - the ability to seal your name into history like that is a big thing to some kids. Not everyone wants just money - legacy is important as well. Think of the story - kid comes back after leading team to a FF, graduates in 3 years and brings JB a 2nd title..
you never know..

 

[Hoov50]

going 6 7 in mann would we have a chance to win it all

Wrong, one of the reasons we have the opportunity to have a 6-7 shooting guard is because he didn't play much as a freshman at Duke due to his lack of man to man defense skill.

 

[Hoov50]

If the buzz is that he will be a lotto pick, he would be a fool not to go. Next years class is going to be a monster. This years class has been considered very weak for a long time. Next year's class has been just the opposite. There are a lot of top flight guys in next years draft and if he doesn't show major improvement, they may think his ceiling is lower. If he gets advised he'll be a lottery pick, he pretty much HAS to go.

Has to be careful who is advising him. Remember Donte Greene was "advised" he was going to be a lottery pick and look how that turned out.

 

[Knicks411]

Consider the $$ and sense in this scenario. MCW spends the offseason in the weight room and gym, adds 20 lbs of muscle so he becomes a better finisher and improves his perimeter game to the point he adds a consistent 3 - point shot. If taken 15th in the 2013 draft, based on the rookie salary scale he would be slotted to make $1.4M, $1.5M and $1.6M (total $4.5M) his first three years with the first two guaranteed. With the improvements noted say he moves up to 5th in 2014. Using the 2013 figures that's $2.8M, $2.9M, and $3.1 M so he'd make more in his first two years than all 3 if he leaves now.

But it's also possible he doesn't improve that much, and the scouts see a guy who will be 23 before his rookie season starts and don't want to spend a top 5 pick on him. It's definitely possible, but i think there's more downside than upside. The more tape teams have on you, the more flaws you can find (and everyone has flaws)

 

[Madbiker]

Would you pass on a guaranteed 2 year contract for at least $3 million? Of course not, and neither will MCW. He can finish his degree by going to summer school in the off season. That is what Shaq did. He promised his family that he would go back and get his degree and he did. I was amazed when I read that he actually went to summer school for several years and made good on his promise. If MCW is that close to graduating he could do it too. Too many risks to pass on the money if it's there now.

 

[EastCoast2]

how many of these kids would you take over MCW?

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/b...position/point-guard/class/2013/view/position

 

[Alsacs]

Honestly there is no need to discuss this Michael Carter-Williams is gone. He should go and he delivered this fanbase a Final Four run. If we get to a position where we average 1 Final Four every 4 years rather than 1 every 10 years his legacy would still be a success at Syracuse. Michael's draft stock isn't going to improve if he returned he won't be a guaranteed top 5 pick next year with Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, and Aaron Gordon entering college basketball. I am a Syracuse fan, but we need to encourage our kids to leave and strike while the iron is hot so we can recruit future studs and realize we care about their future and the program. If this was last year, and MCW wanted to leave it would have been stupid, but he has shown his potential and now its time to get paid. Donte Green made a mistake leaving because the team that year wasn't successful and he needed another year to improve his game MCW has flaws, but he has shown a lot and played really well this year. Thank you for the 2 years Michael and work your ass so you don't have to play in the NBDL at all next year.

 

[timkay99]

Consider the $$ and sense in this scenario. MCW spends the offseason in the weight room and gym, adds 20 lbs of muscle so he becomes a better finisher and improves his perimeter game to the point he adds a consistent 3 - point shot. If taken 15th in the 2013 draft, based on the rookie salary scale he would be slotted to make $1.4M, $1.5M and $1.6M (total $4.5M) his first three years with the first two guaranteed. With the improvements noted say he moves up to 5th in 2014. Using the 2013 figures that's $2.8M, $2.9M, and $3.1 M so he'd make more in his first two years than all 3 if he leaves now.

We can debate to the end what the right move is now (and for the record I think he goes), but the numbers can present a case for staying as well.

Now while I agree that if he improves as much as you state, he would make a ton of money and it would look better.

However, if he stays the same, no chance he goes 15th in the draft. Forget about the rest of the draft board. A PG who can't hit a jumper and is 23 years old is not someone a GM takes in that range of the draft. A junior who hasn't developed a jumper will never develop a jumper. He falls to the late first round (which could be a good thing for him from a bball perspective, but not from a wallet perspective).

Now, lets say the unthinkable happens and he tears his ACL (people point to the Ware injury, but the Noel injury will be the biggest factor for anyone). Teams won't draft him in the 1st round.

If you can get a guaranteed contract in the NBA, you HAVE to jump, IMO. People talk about Donte Greene, but he still got paid.

If you fail in the NBA, you can always go to Europe and make money. It is always better to go to Europe after failing as a 1st round pick then failing as a non-guaranteed 2nd rounder.

 

[ImperialOrange]

I agree. Ideally for MCW, he would fall to the tail end of the lottery to a team like the Mavericks, for example, who are certainly in need of a point guard and might miss the playoffs this season so they'll probably be picking between 12-15. In that case he would get to play for an owner who loves his players, with a great player in Dirk, and some decent overall talent (though much of said talent is getting up in years).

Ideal playing situation wise but not for his checkbook. The difference between being the #12 pick this year and the #6 pick is ~ $1 mil per year. If he fixes his shot and is a top 3 pick he'd make $2 mil more per year vs being the #12 this year. While he probably is a lottery pick this year, he's likely not a high lottery pick and probably has googled these numbers as quickly as I have.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciajessop/2012/06/28/the-structure-of-nba-rookie-contracts/

 

[jekelish]

Ideal playing situation wise but not for his checkbook. The difference between being the #12 pick this year and the #6 pick is ~ $1 mil per year. If he fixes his shot and is a top 3 pick he'd make $2 mil more per year vs being the #12 this year. While he probably is a lottery pick this year, he's likely not a high lottery pick and probably has googled these numbers as quickly as I have.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciajessop/2012/06/28/the-structure-of-nba-rookie-contracts/

But he won't be a top 3 pick, I don't care what anyone says. He simply will not be a top 3 pick. His age is going to be a huge factor. He would already be 22 by next year which, for whatever reason, is a red flag in the NBA Draft. Add the fact that next year has several prospects viewed as sure things and there's no chance he goes in the top 3.

 

[Captnhowdy]

But he won't be a top 3 pick, I don't care what anyone says. He simply will not be a top 3 pick. His age is going to be a huge factor. He would already be 22 by next year which, for whatever reason, is a red flag in the NBA Draft. Add the fact that next year has several prospects viewed as sure things and there's no chance he goes in the top 3.

Less years of having that person in the future. But honestly, even if you get lucky and that person you take in the top 3 actually becomes a Superstar player, 22 or 23 doesn't matter when they usually can play till thier mid 30's. Especially PG's.

 

[Alsacs]

But he won't be a top 3 pick, I don't care what anyone says. He simply will not be a top 3 pick. His age is going to be a huge factor. He would already be 22 by next year which, for whatever reason, is a red flag in the NBA Draft. Add the fact that next year has several prospects viewed as sure things and there's no chance he goes in the top 3.

I agree he won't a top 3 pick unless his jumper improved greatly and he shot like 50% from the field and was north of 35% from 3 pt range. He has elite PG height, and his a natural toughness. However, MCW's shooting woes will prevent him from being a top 5 NBA draft pick. If you combined Dion Waiters offensive abilities with MCW's height and passing skills you have a number 1 overall draft pick. MCW is 21 right now for some dumb reason NBA personnel/GMs want their kids young, but its stupid when you consider Michael Jordan was drafted as a 21 year old out of North Carolina, Charles Barkley was 21 when he was drafted out of Auburn.
I would rather have a player more developed and ready to contribute at 22 years old rather than a raw 19 year that may take 3 years to develop. Jermaine O'Neal is the perfect example he was drafted out of high school as an 18 year old by the Portland Trailblazers it took 4 years and a trade to Indiana before he showed his true talent. MCW is 21 years old and while he isn't a finished product(he needs to work to develop a consistent jumper) he has ideal NBA point guard height, he passes the ball really well if MCW works on his jumper best case scenario he is a poor man's Jason Kidd. Remember Kidd couldn't shoot a lick while with the Mavs, Suns, and Nets and it wasn't till the tail of his career his shooting percentage's improved, but like Kidd MCW is good at getting rebounds, and passing the ball in transition and setting his teammates up for easy looks. The only way MCW would be a top 5 NBA pick is if he shoots thousands of jumpers this offseason and he comes back and is unbelievable on the court. Last year Kendall Marshall a player who isn't as good as MCW IMO who is shorter and played with more talent at UNC than MCW did at SU was drafted 14th overall by the Phoenix Suns and he has played in the NBDL a lot. MCW is going to get drafted in that 8 to 12 range and will need to work on his game to avoid being sent down to NBDL, but if he will have gotten a contract worth a couple million dollars and will be able to get professional coaching to improve his game.

 

[Flacusian]

Stranger things have happened. If he came back we would have one heck of a team next year and there would be some serious excitement in these here parts! I'm not so sure that anyone has any idea of what's really going on inside that kids head~! He breaks the mold in many ways and I mean that in a positive fashion. Those tears at the end of the game are indicative of a kid who is pretty deep on an emotional level. The camaraderie of the college team experience may have a more profound impact than we would be led to believe.

 

[Bayside44]

I think he's gone, but honestly he should come back and work on his game...and would be better suited to be drafted by a contending team where he can be a change of pace guard.

The kid cannot shoot and cannot finish well...going to a stinker isn't going to help him.

 

[CU44SE]

The thing is, Ennis, Patterson, Cooney, Silent G, and MCW would be in the rotation next year. Jimmy B said he doesn't play 4 guards, look at MCW minutes freshman year. So if he stays and Silent G is as good as we think, it's a battle between cooney (already redshirted and won't accept less PT), Patterson (already went to Prep school, didn't redshirt James and doesn't make sense to redshirt him either), and Ennis (top 30 recruit won't want to redshirt). My guess is MCW is basically forced out or Cooney would transfer or one of the other 2 would ask out of their commits.

 

[omniorange]

The thing is, Ennis, Patterson, Cooney, Silent G, and MCW would be in the rotation next year. Jimmy B said he doesn't play 4 guards, look at MCW minutes freshman year. So if he stays and Silent G is as good as we think, it's a battle between cooney (already redshirted and won't accept less PT), Patterson (already went to Prep school, didn't redshirt James and doesn't make sense to redshirt him either), and Ennis (top 30 recruit won't want to redshirt). My guess is MCW is basically forced out or Cooney would transfer or one of the other 2 would ask out of their commits.

I think the logjam was done believing MCW would leave which is why I still think that is what is going to happen.

But if he's willing to come back the rest doesn't matter. Who plays, plays.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[Captnhowdy]

The thing is, Ennis, Patterson, Cooney, Silent G, and MCW would be in the rotation next year. Jimmy B said he doesn't play 4 guards, look at MCW minutes freshman year. So if he stays and Silent G is as good as we think, it's a battle between cooney (already redshirted and won't accept less PT), Patterson (already went to Prep school, didn't redshirt James and doesn't make sense to redshirt him either), and Ennis (top 30 recruit won't want to redshirt). My guess is MCW is basically forced out or Cooney would transfer or one of the other 2 would ask out of their commits.

Is it a good or a bad thing for a team that it might be better for them in the long run if they lose a player to the lottery?

 

[omniorange]

Is it a good or a bad thing for a team that it might be better for them in the long run if they lose a player to the lottery?

I think it depends. A lottery pick bust is still a bust. It certainly helps our image more if we get more players who are actually successful in the NBA. Right now we have Melo and maybe potential with Waiters.

Cheers,
Neil