Assist to field goal ratio decline (Poor passing team)

[billsin01]

I also have noticed consistently the past few years that when a guy like CJ gets doubled or whenever a secondary defender comes to help on a drive that an extra pass is rarely made. That's when we get into all of these charge/block predicaments. Not much passing/cutting going on when a player is getting help sent his way. It's clearly been a problem in recent years with this scoring and off. efficiency plummet.

I think the offense has been tougher and tougher to watch since that 09-10 team. Now I think teams are playing slower than they have in the last but two other factors:

1) playing more halfcourt highlights the fact that JB's offense isn't as precise (or is more freelance than sets) as many other teams.

2) this team hasn't had a post scoring threat since RJ so fewer fast breaks and no inside-out game is a bad combo for assists.

 

[BostonOrange]

Last year we were ISO to a tee. Our offense was like an NBA team last year. Give to Ennis dribble the ball to death or pass it to Cooney, Fair, Grant and they did their own thing. We didn't give the ball to Rak in the post enough. We need ball movement and players who dribble the ball and create things instead of NBA ISO.

NBA ISO usually doesn't work in the NBA either. Re us last year you are absolutely right about the way we played, but I do think it was the skill set of the players that dictated our style, not that we really wanted to play that way. Trevor, CJ, and Jerami are not guys who can create for others at all. Which can be ok, but only if they are paired with other guys that can create.

 

[BostonOrange]

Actually, my historical stats suggest that the higher the assist ratio, the lower the winning percentage. Most assist are horizontal passes to jump shooters, not vertical passes to players next to or closer to the basket. The more you relay on jump shots, the worse your winning percentage. It's our lack of an inside scoring threat that's hurt us in recent years, (since Rick Jackson left).

I am shocked by that stat...is your data just for Cuse? Also I looked it up and in the NBA the most assisted shot is the dunk, followed by jump shot, followed by the 'close shot'. I guess that kind of makes sense because you get a lot of dunks off fast breaks and dribble penetration, and 'close shots' are posts and off offensive boards

 

[NineOneSeven]

As a fan of excellent offense, including ball movement and high assist numbers, it was painful watching us at times last year.

 

[BostonOrange]

I am shocked by that stat...is your data just for Cuse? Also I looked it up and in the NBA the most assisted shot is the dunk, followed by jump shot, followed by the 'close shot'. I guess that kind of makes sense because you get a lot of dunks off fast breaks and dribble penetration, and 'close shots' are posts and off offensive boards

Ps - here are nba assist ratios. It isn't a perfect correlation but generally the best teams have very high asst ratios http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/assistRatio

 

[billsin01]

SoBeCuse is correct, CJ was the main offender. He almost never kicked the ball out. Remember that we were TERRIBLE against zone 2 years ago with CJ manning the free throw line. This year Grant played at the free throw line against zone and we were much better.

I disagree with this a bit not so much b/c I think it's wrong so much as because I think it's a bit over-simplified. CJ was not a great passer but is suggest the bigger part of the equation is that he was far more suited to be a 2nd or 3rd banana in an offense. Running the majority of the offense through him -- as great a player as he was -- put us in a tough spot. Couple that with the lack of a post presence (offensively) and not especially good passing from grant, cooney and the host of Gus who barely played and it's not a recipe for a productive, efficient offense.

 

[billsin01]

i posted about this a lot last year. I think last years team was all finishers, no creators (save Ennis). All pretty good players, but not ideal from a team construction standpoint. Not sure if I would say that generally we are playing much differently than in the past, cept we have run less recently which also lends itself to more iso/less assists

I think tempo is a huge key for this program. When you have better athletes -- which we do most of the time, you need to punish teams for turnovers. I don't think the construction was bad last year. Not great, but it looked far, far worse with cooney's prolonged and profound shooting slump.

 

[SoBeCuse]

NBA ISO usually doesn't work in the NBA either. Re us last year you are absolutely right about the way we played, but I do think it was the skill set of the players that dictated our style, not that we really wanted to play that way. Trevor, CJ, and Jerami are not guys who can create for others at all. Which can be ok, but only if they are paired with other guys that can create.

Yes. You and Alsacs pretty much nailed it. Lots of indecisive possessions as well and the whole throwing the ball around the perimeter/one pass one shot when you don't have many players who can create for others. Arizona for instance was still VERY good without Brandon Ashley because Nic Johnson, Gordon, and Hollis-Jefferson could make plays for others and themselves.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I think tempo is a huge key for this program. When you have better athletes -- which we do most of the time, you need to punish teams for turnovers. I don't think the construction was bad last year. Not great, but it looked far, far worse with cooney's prolonged and profound shooting slump.

Right, but with the whole running the offense through CJ (which I agree with your assessment); it does fall under a roster construction issue as well as a strategic one. I mean there really wasn't anything else that could've been done except to run more. Of course, hypothetically, we would've been slowed down in the Tourney putting us in halfcourt 'try to execute' mode which would've been impossible with the limited skill sets of the roster.

 

[OttoMets]

... Arizona for instance was still VERY good without Brandon Ashley because Nic Johnson, Gordon, and Hollis-Jefferson could make plays for others and themselves.

And because they appeared to make a conscious effort to pick up the tempo after Ashley got hurt.

When a team has an athletic advantage, it should use it. Arizona did; Syracuse didn't. So frustrating to watch us slow it down and choose to run half-court sets knowing that that was our weakness.

 

[SWC75]

I am shocked by that stat...is your data just for Cuse? Also I looked it up and in the NBA the most assisted shot is the dunk, followed by jump shot, followed by the 'close shot'. I guess that kind of makes sense because you get a lot of dunks off fast breaks and dribble penetration, and 'close shots' are posts and off offensive boards

I did a post called "Efficiency" after the 2008-09 season using the stats that were available on the SU website at that time, which went back to 1988-89. I ranked the teams in order of winning percentage and then by several stats I wanted to look at and then looked at the average differential between the rankings:

"I won’t reproduce all the charts here but I used the same system to relate 2 point field goal percentage, 3 point field goal percentage, percentage of shots that are three pointers, the percentage of made field goals that are assisted, offensive vs. defensive rebounding, turnovers, steals and blocks to both offensive and defensive efficiency to see how those things contribute to a team’s efficiency on either end. Here is the bottom line on each:


- 2 point field goal percentage had an average differential ranking of 4.25

- Rebounding had an average differential ranking of 4.70

- Percentage of field goal attempts from three point range had an average differential ranking of 4.98

- Turnovers had an average differential ranking of 5.41

- Steals had an average differential ranking of 5.93

- 3 point field goal percentage had an average differential ranking of 6.14

- Blocks had an average differential ranking of 6.84

- Percentage of made field goals that were assisted had an average differential ranking of 8.27


In other words that’s the order of importance of these things to playing efficient basketball. If you want to win, take the ball inside, (but don’t forget the medium range jump shot) and prevent the other team from doing so. When a shot misses, get the damn ball! Take care of the ball and see if you can generate some turnovers. The rate at which three pointers are made is not as important as how many you, (or they) are taking. Blocks are overrated and assists are even more overrated."

 

[billsin01]

Right, but with the whole running the offense through CJ (which I agree with your assessment); it does fall under a roster construction issue as well as a strategic one. I mean there really wasn't anything else that could've been done except to run more. Of course, hypothetically, we would've been slowed down in the Tourney putting us in halfcourt 'try to execute' mode which would've been impossible with the limited skill sets of the roster.

I guess where I struggle with the whole roster construction issue is that we went to a final four a year earlier with a similar roster: NBA caliber PG, spotty 2G, the same three guys at C, the same guy at the SF and quality (though obviously very different) PF in Southerland. I think you could even argue that very few would take southerland over grant at the 4. I suppose Triche was a more versatile and better 2, but I don't know that I'd point that out as the difference, particularly since the MCW/Triche combo was just miserable shooting the ball.

So, while I see where everyone is coming from on the roster construction angle, I'd suggest it's a combination of three factors (IMHO):

1) Tempo
Already covered this to a degree but I just want to make it clear that we didn't have to play like Loyola Marymount but not strongly encouraging Ennis and MCW to push the ball in unsettled situations (which I'd have to assume was a conscious decision, though I have no inside info on that) seems really strange to me. Especially with as dangerous as MCW was in an unsettled situation and how pedestrian he was (until the tourney) in the halfcourt.

2) Post touches/development
These probably should be separate points but I'll combine them b/c I'm lazy. It's a chicken-egg scenario but we haven't consistently gotten the ball to the post since 10-11 and we also have had essentially zero threat to score or create from there in that span. That's bad. We need to have more inside-out to this offense AND we need the staff and the bigs to step to the plate to actually offer some sort of incentive to pass the ball there. To be fair to the staff, Melo probably had that ability and was headed that way before *ahem* departing, and Grant had the potential to be such an unusual and dangerous player next year with the physical tools to dominate down low, out-quick guys going to the basket from the win/high post, and potential to keep teams pretty honest with an improved jumper. Regardless, the fact that DC has been such a colossal disaster (yes I realize he's had injuries), Rak still doesn't have a post move anyone could call remotely close to a go-to basic move, and none of the wing guys (Fair, KJ ...) has developed any sort of back-to-the-basket game has hurt this program's offense the past few years.

3. Guys jumping to the NBA/moving on
This obviously is part of life in college sports and college hoops in particular. But, though there is no one to blame, per se, the attrition has really hurt this team. It's one thing when you lose a super freak like Wes Johnson, MCW or Waiters with eligibility left or a really polished kid who had a phenomenal year decides to cash in (Ennis), but losing kids who still have so much room to improve (Melo, Grant) in addition to quality seniors like Scoop, Fair, RJ, Triche (to some extent), Southerland, is a really tough balancing act for coaches. It puts programs in a spot where something as stupid as a random NCAA clearinghouse issue for a month or so potentially has a major impact on your season. If Roberson is playing with the team in Canada and then available for big minutes vs. cupcakes early, he would have been a valuable contributor late. It hurts that he wasn't b/c it was pretty clear that the lack of depth was a difficult issue for this team.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

I think tempo is a huge key for this program. When you have better athletes -- which we do most of the time, you need to punish teams for turnovers. I don't think the construction was bad last year. Not great, but it looked far, far worse with cooney's prolonged and profound shooting slump.

thats quite a slump. two years and running. perhaps he is just not a very good real game shooter who went through a hot streak at the beginning of the year rather than the bad shooting being the outlier.

good shooters make shots. i dont care how much attention you pay to them or how little help he received from a lack of other deep threats.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I guess where I struggle with the whole roster construction issue is that we went to a final four a year earlier with a similar roster: NBA caliber PG, spotty 2G, the same three guys at C, the same guy at the SF and quality (though obviously very different) PF in Southerland. I think you could even argue that very few would take southerland over grant at the 4. I suppose Triche was a more versatile and better 2, but I don't know that I'd point that out as the difference, particularly since the MCW/Triche combo was just miserable shooting the ball.

So, while I see where everyone is coming from on the roster construction angle, I'd suggest it's a combination of three factors (IMHO):

1) Tempo
Already covered this to a degree but I just want to make it clear that we didn't have to play like Loyola Marymount but not strongly encouraging Ennis and MCW to push the ball in unsettled situations (which I'd have to assume was a conscious decision, though I have no inside info on that) seems really strange to me. Especially with as dangerous as MCW was in an unsettled situation and how pedestrian he was (until the tourney) in the halfcourt.

2) Post touches/development
These probably should be separate points but I'll combine them b/c I'm lazy. It's a chicken-egg scenario but we haven't consistently gotten the ball to the post since 10-11 and we also have had essentially zero threat to score or create from there in that span. That's bad. We need to have more inside-out to this offense AND we need the staff and the bigs to step to the plate to actually offer some sort of incentive to pass the ball there. To be fair to the staff, Melo probably had that ability and was headed that way before *ahem* departing, and Grant had the potential to be such an unusual and dangerous player next year with the physical tools to dominate down low, out-quick guys going to the basket from the win/high post, and potential to keep teams pretty honest with an improved jumper. Regardless, the fact that DC has been such a colossal disaster (yes I realize he's had injuries), Rak still doesn't have a post move anyone could call remotely close to a go-to basic move, and none of the wing guys (Fair, KJ ...) has developed any sort of back-to-the-basket game has hurt this program's offense the past few years.

3. Guys jumping to the NBA/moving on
This obviously is part of life in college sports and college hoops in particular. But, though there is no one to blame, per se, the attrition has really hurt this team. It's one thing when you lose a super freak like Wes Johnson, MCW or Waiters with eligibility left or a really polished kid who had a phenomenal year decides to cash in (Ennis), but losing kids who still have so much room to improve (Melo, Grant) in addition to quality seniors like Scoop, Fair, RJ, Triche (to some extent), Southerland, is a really tough balancing act for coaches. It puts programs in a spot where something as stupid as a random NCAA clearinghouse issue for a month or so potentially has a major impact on your season. If Roberson is playing with the team in Canada and then available for big minutes vs. cupcakes early, he would have been a valuable contributor late. It hurts that he wasn't b/c it was pretty clear that the lack of depth was a difficult issue for this team.

Good post. All factors for sure. All of the points we have been making just illustrates all of the problems the past few seasons and yet they have generally been very good seasons. The flaws get magnified in a one and done scenario like the Tourney where there is little room for error. We did make the F4 but excluding Montana and parts of the Cal game the offense was not good. The defense was superb the whole Tournament but offensively it was a struggle. 2H of Cal, Indiana, and Marquette were ugly. Pretty easy to see that we were given a nice draw and dealt with some inept handling of our zone until Michigan. Like all of us; I am very anxious to see this if this team's parts fit better together and if some strategic coaching tweaks happen.

 

[billsin01]

thats quite a slump. two years and running. perhaps he is just not a very good real game shooter who went through a hot streak at the beginning of the year rather than the bad shooting being the outlier.

good shooters make shots. i dont care how much attention you pay to them or how little help he received from a lack of other deep threats.

You need to change your andle b/c I find it hard to disagree with anything STEVEOLT says

But I do have to disagree, albeit slightly. I agree that Cooney's shooting in the second half is largely inexplicable. A 'good' shooter wouldn't consistently miss as many open looks as he did for prolonged stretches of a season. It doesn't make a lot of sense.

But to say he's in a two-year shooting slump and to intimate that he's a 'poor game shooter' is at least premature, if not wrong. I mean, he hit .375 for the season. Just for reference, GMac bettered that number only once in his career and I think we all consider him a good shooter.

Now the obvious counter to that is that his numbers were buoyed by some phenomenal early performances and the ND game in conference. Outside of ND he was largely dreadful in conference play.

But it's hard to say those good games don't count somehow. I mean, it's not like they were all cupcakes. Sure, he was 7-for-8 against Cornell, but that was a game we were losing by 6 at the half. He was really good in two of the three games in Maui, great against IU, he was great vs. High Point, a game we were actually losing in the second half. Overall I think he was near or above. .500 from 3 through 13 games.

What kind of player is Cooney -- I'm not really sure but I'd suggest it would be every bit as remarkable for a bad shooter to have a 13 game stretch like that (regardless of competition) as it would be for a good shooter to such a piss poor 8-game stretch at the end of conference play.

If I had to guess I'd say that the combination of a huge amount of minutes and some confidence issues tanked him in the last month (10 games including the tourney) of the season. Of course, having said that, it'd be crazy not to have some concerns about him heading into this season.

 

[billsin01]

Good post. All factors for sure. All of the points we have been making just illustrates all of the problems the past few seasons and yet they have generally been very good seasons. The flaws get magnified in a one and done scenario like the Tourney where there is little room for error. We did make the F4 but excluding Montana and parts of the Cal game the offense was not good. The defensive was superb the whole Tournament but offensively it was a struggle. 2H of Cal, Indiana, and Marquette were ugly. Pretty easy to see that we were given a nice draw and dealt with some inept handling of our zone until Michigan. Like all of us; I am very anxious to see this if this team's parts fit better together and if some strategic coaching tweaks happen.

Yup -- I don't, or at least I try not to judge on tournament successes and failures because I'm a big believer in luck and draw being huge factors on that stage. I understand that the truly great teams won't lose on that stage but most teams have flaws and it's not really all that crazy for a very good team to bow out early or a significantly flawed team to come together and make a nice run ('96, '13).

But yeah, it will be interesting. I really do think they need to make some tweaks and I would be lying if I said I had a great feeling about this upcoming season.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

LOL ... I was thinking the same thing, but for his poor shooting percentage in the second part of the season, and not because he didn't pass it. The PG, or for that matter SG, PF, SF, C, can pass all they want - the players have to hit their shots. Also, it would be nice to have centers that can post up, bring the defense in and pass the ball out to an open shooter. Just saying.

Cooney always seemed to hesitate with the ball after catching it if he didn't have a shot - he needs to be quicker to react to get the ball to an open player. However, I have to say that I always hoped (and prayed, dear god I prayed last season) that he would knock down those threes!!!!

Looking for good things from Roberson and BJ this year (and silently Patterson).

The thing that Cooney did way too much and which hasn't been addressed yet here was to receive the ball from Ennis, look for his shot, not get it, and then just immediately return the ball to Ennis. He rarely looked inside at all, almost as if he was directed to play that way. It was incredibly frustrating to see our big guys fight for some position and never, ever, ever get rewarded with the ball.

 

[SoBeCuse]

The thing that Cooney did way too much and which hasn't been addressed yet here was to receive the ball from Ennis, look for his shot, not get it, and then just immediately return the ball to Ennis. He rarely looked inside at all, almost as if he was directed to play that way. It was incredibly frustrating to see our big guys fight for some position and never, ever, ever get rewarded with the ball.

Very good points.

 

[Dave85]

Just saw this article posted on twitter, and Im not so much paying attention to what he had to say about this upcoming years team but its staggering how much our passing has dropped off the past few years. Cant say it hasn't been noticeable, a lot of people including me have wondered why the offense has gone to so much isolation. I think you can attribute this to our poor offensive outputs that last 2 years as a main reason. Their is no ball movement and we are relying on one person to create, to much standing around.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/99512/best-passing-teams-in-2014-15

Syracuse: In the past five seasons, the Orange's assists-to-field goals ratio has intermittently declined. In 2009-10, Syracuse baskets were the result of an assist nearly 65 percent of the time, one of the top figures in the country. A year later, that number was 60.5 percent. From there, it went to 56.1 (in 2011-12) to 55.8 (in 2012-13) to 49.1 (in 2013-14). Now the Orange are losing Tyler Ennis, the freshman point guard who accounted for a huge portion of their assists last season. It stands to reason that in 2014-15, Syracuse won't be a particularly productive passing team.

When I was coaching my son's 5th/6th grade basketball team we had play number 5. Play number 5 meant we had five passes and who ever received the fifth pass had to shoot. It actually worked out pretty good because the other 4 players would crash the boards as soon as someone received the fifth pass. So we got a lot of rebounds and put backs.

Our Orange needs some kind of improvement in offense. I wish the coaching staff would practice some read-react type offense. Bobby Knight won 3 NC using a motion offense.

 

[Dave85]

The thing that Cooney did way too much and which hasn't been addressed yet here was to receive the ball from Ennis, look for his shot, not get it, and then just immediately return the ball to Ennis. He rarely looked inside at all, almost as if he was directed to play that way. It was incredibly frustrating to see our big guys fight for some position and never, ever, ever get rewarded with the ball.

Last season there was a couple of times Ennis passed the ball to one our big guys at their waistline. The big was not able to get a handle on the ball. I think the PGs have to pass the ball to the big guys at shoulder height so they can pivot to the basket without getting the ball stripped. Whatever happens we need more offense.

 

[ORANGEsPHK]

The thing that Cooney did way too much and which hasn't been addressed yet here was to receive the ball from Ennis, look for his shot, not get it, and then just immediately return the ball to Ennis. He rarely looked inside at all, almost as if he was directed to play that way. It was incredibly frustrating to see our big guys fight for some position and never, ever, ever get rewarded with the ball.

Agreed. Hopefully he has worked on this during the off-season. I'm hopeful that the coaches have seen this tendency of his and asked to work on being a playmaker even when not running around screens and shooting. I just remember him holding the ball for too long when he doesn't have shot - things need to be more fluid with him as one of the leaders (?) on the floor.

 

[Dave85]

Yup -- I don't, or at least I try not to judge on tournament successes and failures because I'm a big believer in luck and draw being huge factors on that stage. I understand that the truly great teams won't lose on that stage but most teams have flaws and it's not really all that crazy for a very good team to bow out early or a significantly flawed team to come together and make a nice run ('96, '13). I would be lying if I said I had a great feeling about this upcoming season.

I agree with your luck assessment. At the highest level of competition it becomes a 50/50 bet. So to win a NC you it's like throwing 4 pennies and getting all heads. The important thing is to get the team to a point where they can actually be competitive. Going 4 for 6 the last 10 games of the season is not being competitive.

I am pretty positive about next year's team. I'm hoping McCullough will be the second coming of Carmelo Anthony. He has a good outside shot and he's good driving to the basket. And I am especially looking forward to K-JO2 as PG. It will be nice to have Dion Waiters like fast break again. Ennis on a fast break was like watching the game tape in reverse.

 

[billsin01]

The thing that Cooney did way too much and which hasn't been addressed yet here was to receive the ball from Ennis, look for his shot, not get it, and then just immediately return the ball to Ennis. He rarely looked inside at all, almost as if he was directed to play that way. It was incredibly frustrating to see our big guys fight for some position and never, ever, ever get rewarded with the ball.

I think we discussed this during the season but I see it on both ends -- I agree that our guards and personnel in general don't effectively enter the ball into the post. It's frustrating. I also get frustrated when the bigs don't do much when they do get it. I am saying prayers every night that Rak has an actual post move and/or DC learns how to use his body and athleticism to make some things happen in the post. We desperately need that.

 

[billsin01]

I agree with your luck assessment. At the highest level of competition it becomes a 50/50 bet. So to win a NC you it's like throwing 4 pennies and getting all heads. The important thing is to get the team to a point where they can actually be competitive. Going 4 for 6 the last 10 games of the season is not being competitive.

Agreed. Ugly finish.

I am pretty positive about next year's team. I'm hoping McCullough will be the second coming of Carmelo Anthony. He has a good outside shot and he's good driving to the basket. And I am especially looking forward to K-JO2 as PG. It will be nice to have Dion Waiters like fast break again. Ennis on a fast break was like watching the game tape in reverse.

I always get nervous banking on someone who just got kicked off their high school team. McCullough may prove me wrong (waiters certainly did) but I just worry he's a disaster from a team standpoint. Makes me nervous.

 

[Dave85]

Agreed. Ugly finish.
I always get nervous banking on someone who just got kicked off their high school team. McCullough may prove me wrong (waiters certainly did) but I just worry he's a disaster from a team standpoint. Makes me nervous.

Well, you can't coach 6'10" 230 pounds. He has an overall rank of 18. I hope he's just as good as Parker was for Duke and I will be happy.