Babers blew it a little

[Millhouse]

For me it was pretty simple - we had to score twice to win.

We should have kicked the FG - the first score of the two needed.

We couldn't win the game at halftime - we made a mistake.

you can't know what the score is going to be an hour later, you just go with the strategy with the highest expected points.

the TD was the right call if you have a better than 40% chance of scoring and a 95% chance of hitting the fg.

i don't think the odds were that good but no matter what it's going to be close.

4th and 3 punt at the 43 and a 48 yard fg on 4th and 2, that's so much worse. the take the points crowd fixates on the FG because they love kicking for no good reason. i think the FG was slightly worse because there is no benefit to leaving FSU with awful field position to kneel on.

 

[Millhouse]

no one considers that they could've just as easily been down 4 at the end, which would've made a TD attempt at the half sound better in retrospect. a lot of people are thinking about this wrong. it's not that they wished they had three more points at the end, it's that it was a slightly bad bet at the time

 

[JeremyCuse]

As noted by some others the issue isnt going for it, the issue is running a hobbled Dungey 4 yards out against a 4 and 5 star D line. You have to throw the ball there, just a horrible play call.

 

[Chip]

no one considers that they could've just as easily been down 4 at the end, which would've made a TD attempt at the half sound better in retrospect. a lot of people are thinking about this wrong. it's not that they wished they had three more points at the end, it's that it was a slightly bad bet at the time

To me it’s about what you said to start this, you’re not pinning them deep if you miss because they’re just taking a knee and going to the locker room. That should factor in.

Would have been amazing if Erv caught the ball at the 1 for a 1st down after the high football IQ play from FSU that knocked it back into the field of play.

 

[patcuse]

As noted by some others the issue isnt going for it, the issue is running a hobbled Dungey 4 yards out against a 4 and 5 star D line. You have to throw the ball there, just a horrible play call.

As horrible as when he walked in from the 3 for a touchdown on the last score?

 

[JeremyCuse]

As horrible as when he walked in from the 3 for a touchdown on the last score?

That was play action on I believe second down. Not 4th and 3 after we just tried two run plays. Kinda not the same situation no??

 

[patcuse]

That was play action on I believe second down. Not 4th and 3 after we just tried two run plays. Kinda not the same situation no??

It was a designed run bootleg with a hobbled qb against 4 and 5 star D line. But when it works it's a great call.

 

[BuffOrange]

to hell with momentum. it's not a thing. it's just goofy story telling bs. fsu fans could say, we held them to a FG, we have the momentum now.

You didn't play the game bro.

My tv cut out at halftime yesterday; KC won that game right?

 

[Millhouse]

You didn't play the game bro.

My tv cut out at halftime yesterday; KC won that game right?

my functioning brain is glad about it too

i don't remember saying that recovering an onside kick guarantees victory

 

[OrangePA]

you can't know what the score is going to be an hour later, you just go with the strategy with the highest expected points.

the TD was the right call if you have a better than 40% chance of scoring and a 95% chance of hitting the fg.

i don't think the odds were that good but no matter what it's going to be close.

4th and 3 punt at the 43 and a 48 yard fg on 4th and 2, that's so much worse. the take the points crowd fixates on the FG because they love kicking for no good reason. i think the FG was slightly worse because there is no benefit to leaving FSU with awful field position to kneel on.

I'm just a country lawyer.

I'm no scientist.

We needed two scores to win.

We get the sure first score in the compressed time period and then we work the rest of the game to get the less certain second score.

 

[Millhouse]

I'm just a country lawyer.

I'm no scientist.

We needed two scores to win.

We get the sure first score in the compressed time period and then we work the rest of the game to get the less certain second score.

you didn't know we needed two scores at the time

no one ever says, we lost by 1, "we should've gone for two earlier"

it only gets said when a kick would've worked out better

everyone focuses on the end of the half when there were two other drives that might've led to points had they not kicked

but people who have liked football for a long time like the normal way it's played. kick, kick, kick

 

[Ish88888]

you didn't know we needed two scores at the time

no one ever says, we lost by 1, "we should've gone for two earlier"

it only gets said when a kick would've worked out better

everyone focuses on the end of the half when there were two other drives that might've led to points had they not kicked

but people who have liked football for a long time like the normal way it's played. kick, kick, kick

Agree, people hyper focus on decisions and points missed/gained before halfs and end of game. Fact is, we blew opportunities in the 3rd quarter. Actually didn't attack like we needed to. I was ok with the go for a td before the half. I didnt like putting the game in murphs hands, or should i say feet. Kickers are week to week and he showed signs of it not being his week.

 

[OrangePA]

you didn't know we needed two scores at the time

no one ever says, we lost by 1, "we should've gone for two earlier"

it only gets said when a kick would've worked out better

everyone focuses on the end of the half when there were two other drives that might've led to points had they not kicked

but people who have liked football for a long time like the normal way it's played. kick, kick, kick

Yeah I did.

The score was 21-14. I knew that we couldn't win the game at that point.

And, I could not assume that FSU would score again. I didn't know that.

For me a stupid poster the rule is - just keep accumulating points until late in the 4th Quarter.

 

[Millhouse]

Yeah I did.

The score was 21-14. I knew that we couldn't win the game at that point.

And, I could not assume that FSU would score again. I didn't know that.

For me a stupid poster the rule is - just keep accumulating points until late in the 4th Quarter.

can't be that simple. you don't kick on third and 1 at the one. but to go for it on third down means passing up sure points and risking a turnover. egad we could come away with nothing! rather than take the sure 3, people risk getting nothing by trying for the TD.

it's always about maximizing expected points even if people don't know what expected points are. people mess up the weights though. not a huge deal. to me it's close to 6 of one, half a dozen of the other. he's just puzzling me a little bit the last couple weeks

 

[shu 49]

That was play action on I believe second down. Not 4th and 3 after we just tried two run plays. Kinda not the same situation no??

I agree with u. Bad set of calls. Should have been pass to Phillips or ish even just for 1st down. I think they forget we can't run block yet. I know they want too, but meathead football without the meat part doesn't work. Pass the damn ball. Great pass blocking in this game so why deviate.

 

[upperdeck]

i think they just look at the D and call the plays based on that and when we had plays that were 7-8 blockers on 3-5 defenders you have to think we win that sometimes. i didnt like the first 3 plays down there.. no problem with the final play and i dont doubt given the look of the D they would do it again.

 

[OrangePA]

can't be that simple. you don't kick on third and 1 at the one. but to go for it on third down means passing up sure points and risking a turnover. egad we could come away with nothing! rather than take the sure 3, people risk getting nothing by trying for the TD.

it's always about maximizing expected points even if people don't know what expected points are. people mess up the weights though. not a huge deal. to me it's close to 6 of one, half a dozen of the other. he's just puzzling me a little bit the last couple weeks

You go for it on third and one because you have another down - to either kick or go for the TD.

I think this one is simple.

You need two scores to win - you get the easy score now and worry about additional points when there is no longer the compressed time factor.

You couldn't win the game on that call/play.

So you continue to accumulate points - like runs in a baseball game.

 

[upperdeck]

in baseball guy on 3rd no outs, do teams make the simple play to bunt him home? most dont because they trust the players to make plays, others dont because they dont think they can bunt. we had 100 plays how many gained more than 3 yds?

 

[Millhouse]

You go for it on third and one because you have another down - to either kick or go for the TD.

I think this one is simple.

You need two scores to win - you get the easy score now and worry about additional points when there is no longer the compressed time factor.

You couldn't win the game on that call/play.

So you continue to accumulate points - like runs in a baseball game.

I'm using a goofy example on purpose. You could take the points on third down and not risk the turnover. You have a sure 3 points but you pass it up even though there is a higher chance of getting nothing by not kicking on third down. the expected value of trying to score a TD on third down and kicking on 4th if you have to is better than the expected value of kicking on third down. the downside of a potential turnover isn't that bad.

going for it on fourth down obviously has a higher chance of coming away with nothing but my goofy example shows that you pass up sure 3 points for a more uncertain outcome when it's clearly worth it in expected value.

 

[Millhouse]

in baseball guy on 3rd no outs, do teams make the simple play to bunt him home? most dont because they trust the players to make plays, others dont because they dont think they can bunt. we had 100 plays how many gained more than 3 yds?

baseball managers get it more than they used to

they pass up that more certain run to increase their chances of a big inning.

the expected value is higher by not making outs on purpose

 

[upperdeck]

we had crazy numbers on 4th down for a long time.. had to not make a few eventually.. i would be fine if we went for it on 4th and 3-4-5 every time. we lost Miami because of FGs we lost NC st because of FGs and we lost FSU because of FGs. at FSU we had 4 that could have been fgs and made 1 for 3 pts.. odds say we make at least of the other 3 tries if we had gone for it. if we one TD out of those we win the game even if we removed the 3 pts..