Bubble Watch - Week of February 11

[jncuse]

On the out level line seven of the nine teams that played lost!

However on the in-line we only saw one out of nine teams that we wanted to lose lose excluding SU'scgame

We have slightly different numbers (your figures may well be right) but our conclusions are the same. Above the line generally took care of business, below the line did not.

 

[Digger]

Just wanted to give a quick thank you to jncuse and everyone else who contributes to this thread.

The bubble breakdown is one of my favorite reoccurring threads on the site. Really adds a lot to probably my favorite sports period of the year.

 

[orangenirvana]

Middle Tennessee has a KP of 45 -- I would have no problem giving them the benefit or the doubt over a P5 team... not named Syracuse.

I think they have a decent shot at an at large if they only have one more loss. But they are one of the few real mid-majors that I see having a shot.

I'll forever have an appreciation and rooting interest for Middle Tennessee since they did us a huge favor by knocking off MSU last year. (Although if they beat us in football this Fall that will likely dissipate quickly.)

However, they're 0-1 vs. the Top 50 and 0-0 against the Top 25.

That's pretty rough to overcome if they don't win their conference tourney.

 

[jdubs30]

I'll forever have an appreciation and rooting interest for Middle Tennessee since they did us a huge favor by knocking off MSU last year. (Although if they beat us in football this Fall that will likely dissipate quickly.)

However, they're 0-1 vs. the Top 50 and 0-0 against the Top 25.

That's pretty rough to overcome if they don't win their conference tourney.

To me if Monmouth didn't get in last year as an at-large, I have a hard time believing any non-P5 will get the benefit of the doubt if they don't win their conference. Teams like Gonzaga and Wichita State have that "rep" of several years of success so they'll always have an upper hand compared to other non-P5s. However, if Monmoutn didn't get in last year with their OOC slate - I have a hard time thinking someone like MTSU will get in unless they win their conference. If they end up winning, they will probably get like a 13 though.

 

[FrancoPizza]

The bubble breakdown is one of my favorite reoccurring threads on the site.

Jncuse does a masterful job making things interesting, but this is not the type of thread that we want to be a recurring tradition. We're Syracuse not Virginia Tech!

 

[MSOrange]

Jncuse does a masterful job making things interesting, but this is not the type of thread that we want to be a recurring tradition. We're Syracuse not Virginia Tech!

Exactly. I love the thread - I just don't want us to be the star of the show.

 

[Digger]

Jncuse does a masterful job making things interesting, but this is not the type of thread that we want to be a recurring tradition. We're Syracuse not Virginia Tech!

Good point. As informative/great as these threads are, "favorite" might not be the right word

 

[Knicks411]

To me if Monmouth didn't get in last year as an at-large, I have a hard time believing any non-P5 will get the benefit of the doubt if they don't win their conference. Teams like Gonzaga and Wichita State have that "rep" of several years of success so they'll always have an upper hand compared to other non-P5s. However, if Monmoutn didn't get in last year with their OOC slate - I have a hard time thinking someone like MTSU will get in unless they win their conference. If they end up winning, they will probably get like a 13 though.

didnt MTSU make it as an at large a few years back? It was someone who knocked Virginia out of a bid, i remember that

 

[jncuse]

To me if Monmouth didn't get in last year as an at-large, I have a hard time believing any non-P5 will get the benefit of the doubt if they don't win their conference. Teams like Gonzaga and Wichita State have that "rep" of several years of success so they'll always have an upper hand compared to other non-P5s. However, if Monmoutn didn't get in last year with their OOC slate - I have a hard time thinking someone like MTSU will get in unless they win their conference. If they end up winning, they will probably get like a 13 though.

If they follow last year's process, then absolutely you are correct. But they are not always consistent. I thought they were quite harsh to non P5 or AAC schools last year. Not sure if they will be the same. But the non RPI Ratings do think they are pretty good so I think that could be their ticket in, especially with what seems to be more acceptance to those items.

The point you raise, and Nirvana raise about the top 50 record, though are quite valid. I can't see myself thinking they are likely to get in as an at large at any point, but I guess I would not be totally stunned.

 

[longtimefan]

If they follow last year's process, then absolutely you are correct. But they are not always consistent. I thought they were quite harsh to non P5 or AAC schools last year. Not sure if they will be the same. But the non RPI Ratings do think they are pretty good so I think that could be their ticket in, especially with what seems to be more acceptance to those items.

The point you raise, and Nirvana raise about the top 50 record, though are quite valid. I can't see myself thinking they are likely to get in as an at large at any point, but I guess I would not be totally stunned.

Off on a tangent--

One of the biggest MBB related stories of the past 48 hours concerns Mark Hollis, AD at MSU, who has had to bail out of his responsibilities as chair of the tournament selection committee because of the emerging mess in the Spartans' FB program.

How will this affect the selection process, if at all? No idea.

 

[bpo57]

I'll forever have an appreciation and rooting interest for Middle Tennessee since they did us a huge favor by knocking off MSU last year. (Although if they beat us in football this Fall that will likely dissipate quickly.)

However, they're 0-1 vs. the Top 50 and 0-0 against the Top 25.

That's pretty rough to overcome if they don't win their conference tourney.

RPI in the mid 30s and last year's major exposure will carry them a long way. They also meet the eye test. They can play.

 

[orangenirvana]

RPI in the mid 30s and last year's major exposure will carry them a long way. They also meet the eye test. They can play.

Sagarin - 59
KenPom - 45
BPI - 51
RPI - 37

That RPI won't carry much weight considering it is the outlier.

 

[bpo57]

Sagarin - 59
KenPom - 45
BPI - 51
RPI - 37

That RPI won't carry much weight considering it is the outlier.

Their current RPI is 34. So you're weighting the RPI and BPI equally?

They have four games left in the regular season - two on the road and two at home. If they win all four then they'll be 17-1 in C-USA and 27-4 overall. At that point I'd bet you whatever you want to bet they're in the NCAAT regardless of what happens in the C-USA tourney.

 

[jdubs30]

If they follow last year's process, then absolutely you are correct. But they are not always consistent. I thought they were quite harsh to non P5 or AAC schools last year. Not sure if they will be the same. But the non RPI Ratings do think they are pretty good so I think that could be their ticket in, especially with what seems to be more acceptance to those items.

The point you raise, and Nirvana raise about the top 50 record, though are quite valid. I can't see myself thinking they are likely to get in as an at large at any point, but I guess I would not be totally stunned.

Agreed that they were harsh last year.

If the "early 16" shows anything - it's that this year will be the same. Gonzaga was ranked 4th despite their undefeated season; and Cincinnati was nowhere to be found despite being 22-2 at that time. To me, that it is not setting up so nicely for non-P5 schools.

 

[20Plus]

If they follow last year's process, then absolutely you are correct. But they are not always consistent. I thought they were quite harsh to non P5 or AAC schools last year. Not sure if they will be the same. But the non RPI Ratings do think they are pretty good so I think that could be their ticket in, especially with what seems to be more acceptance to those items.

The point you raise, and Nirvana raise about the top 50 record, though are quite valid. I can't see myself thinking they are likely to get in as an at large at any point, but I guess I would not be totally stunned.

Listen to Katz courtside he had the chair of committee on he says RPI is a strong factor until next year

 

[jdubs30]

Their current RPI is 34. So you're weighting the RPI and BPI equally?

They have four games left in the regular season - two on the road and two at home. If they win all four then they'll be 17-1 in C-USA and 27-4 overall. At that point I'd bet you whatever you want to bet they're in the NCAAT regardless of what happens in the C-USA tourney.

27-4/17-1 would be massive to ignore. MTSU did a solid job OOC with wins over UNC-Wilmington, Vandy, @Ole Miss and @Belmont.

However - how would committee weigh a team with only 4 top 100 wins, and 3 losses of 130 or worse? Has MTSU proven enough? They have played 1 tourney team so far (VCU) and lost by 3 - although a few other of their wins might get in the tourney (Wilmington, Belmont, Ole Miss)

I believe the committee wants to see you beat good teams. Granted, it's not MTSU's fault that they haven't had many opportunities.

We very often see a team or 2 with an outrageous win total get left out - MTSU should win the CUSA though.

 

[20Plus]

Let's Go spiders (vs VCU) and Cardinals (vs California)

 

[jdubs30]

Listen to Katz courtside he had the chair of committee on he says RPI is a strong factor until next year

We better hope not! Our current RPI is 78 (it will improve, especially if we win).

Meanwhile you look at a team like UNC-Wilmington - who is currently 21-5 overall with an RPI of 41; 37 spots higher than ours. However they come in with a much weaker SOS of 152 (ours is 51).

Wilmington has played 1 top 65 team and lost (MTSU). They are 4-2 vs. the 51-100 RPI teams including 3-2 on the road. But 17 of their 21 wins have been 101+ opponents (11 vs. 201+).

Meanwhile we're 5-6 vs. the top 50 and 2-2 vs. the top 100.

44% of our wins have come vs. top 60 teams. 81% of Wilmington's wins have been vs. teams of 120 or worse ( compared to 50% for us); Wilmington has 0 top 60 wins.

No comparison IMO - I don't care what the RPI says

 

[bpo57]

27-4/17-1 would be massive to ignore. MTSU did a solid job OOC with wins over UNC-Wilmington, Vandy, @Ole Miss and @Belmont.

However - how would committee weigh a team with only 4 top 100 wins, and 3 losses of 130 or worse? Has MTSU proven enough? They have played 1 tourney team so far (VCU) and lost by 3 - although a few other of their wins might get in the tourney (Wilmington, Belmont, Ole Miss)

I believe the committee wants to see you beat good teams. Granted, it's not MTSU's fault that they haven't had many opportunities.

We very often see a team or 2 with an outrageous win total get left out - MTSU should win the CUSA though.

Your questions are good ones that we ask of mid-majors every year. These guys don't have the opportunity to play many of the P5 teams as you point out. I just think what MTSU did last year will work in their favor this year should they not get the automatic bid. They're a known quantity to some degree because of last year and two of their stars from last year are back - Giddy Potts and Reggie Upshaw - and their best player JaCorey Williams is a stud transfer from Arkansas. People know they can play.

 

[orangenirvana]

Their current RPI is 34. So you're weighting the RPI and BPI equally?

They have four games left in the regular season - two on the road and two at home. If they win all four then they'll be 17-1 in C-USA and 27-4 overall. At that point I'd bet you whatever you want to bet they're in the NCAAT regardless of what happens in the C-USA tourney.

And last year SU's RPI was 78 going into Selection Sunday. It's been stated that they use all of these ratings and will eliminate the outlier.

 

[bpo57]

And last year SU's RPI was 78 going into Selection Sunday. It's been stated that they use all of these ratings and will eliminate the outlier.

That's fine. In fact they do more than use all of the ratings. They actually watch the teams play too. And a solid team with key players back from a squad that knocked off a #2 seed last year, goes 17-1/27-4 (if that happens), has an RPI in the low 30s and is also low 30s in the ESPN coaches poll is going to get an at-large bid if they don't win their tourney.