Bubble Watch - Week of February 11

[orangenirvana]

Last year was as complex a bubble as we had in years from my perspective. The committee went with the P5 instead of mid-tier conference teams.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2016

3 teams got in that were not in per "consensus" which is higher than normal
Syracuse was in 55 of 144 (38%)
Vanderbilt (32%)
Tulsa (1%) ... total stunner

3 teams that got left out.
St. Bonaventure 86%
St. Mary's 65%
San Diego St 57%

I do think some on the matrix are a little influenced by chief idiot Joe Lunardi, which is why a team like San Diego St got so much love.

Yeah, that's why I don't track the brackets. Most of them have no idea what they're talking about.

 

[jncuse]

Yeah, that's why I don't track the brackets. Most of them have no idea what they're talking about.

I think it's a very good guide as you try to follow teams. Of course it will never be bang on with the final selection. But used as a guide it's helpful IMO.

With respect to last year, it was a very difficult bubble to dissect in my view. I also claimed we just had a decent shot -- the committee could have went in multiple directions, but they went quality wins that are easier for P5 teams to get.

 

[jncuse]

Texas Tech not getting any mention now, but like us beating Virginia this moves them into the discussion.

 

[pearl31]

View attachment 89369

Texas Tech not getting any mention now, but like us beating Virginia this moves them into the discussion.

yeah I think this puts them squarely on the bubble now - they have other big wins too

 

[jncuse]

yeah I think this puts them squarely on the bubble now - they have other big wins too

Certainly above Auburn and Ohio St. Still don't understand that from Palm.

 

[obliterata]

I don't want to predict that 10-8 would could have us in entering the ACC tourney. I need more time to get any degree of confidence on that. (and know the mix). But after the brutal weekend, I am not outright dismissing the possibility yet. Let's hope we don't even have to think about it.

If the ACC gets 9 bids I like our chances at 10-8, even if it's just 8 bids I still think we have a decent chance. If the conference gets 10 bids we're a virtual lock. I will say winning one game in the ACCT would really help too no matter how many bids the conference gets.

Worst case 10-8 scenario I believe would be beat GTech twice and lose to Duke and at Louisville. We'd be 5-0 in head to head games vs all the other ACC bubble teams if you don't count VaTech and Pitt as being on the bubble (I don't right now, VaTech is in, Pitt not near the bubble). We'd probably be in 7th place with a 10-8 record, maybe tied for 7th. I just don't see the commitee taking 2 teams over SU in this 9-bid scenario. 5-0 vs the other teams on the bubble - Miami, Clemson, Wake Forest, and GTech - cannot be ignored.

If the ACC only gets 8 bids and VaTech and Pitt are on the bubble too I still think we have at least a 50% chance of getting one of the two remaining bids. We'd be 6-2 vs the other 6 ACC bubblers and that would probably be the best head to head record of this group of 7.

 

[orangenirvana]

Updated Cuse rankings (through Louisville):

Sagarin - 39
KenPom - 47
BPI - 31
RPI - 76

Average: 48.25 (gulp)
Average after eliminating outlier: 39 (10 seed)

 

[CaptainJ]

Does anyone else ever do any "bubble watch"ing in real life? You know, sitting on the park bench, like Aqualung? Verse 7(click to enlarge). For I have come unto you, heathens, inspired though I was not before now(cough, cough).

EDIT: as a disclaimer, whomever's bubble Aqualung(tm) was eyeing with "bad" intent in my example were all of legal age to be oggled in whatever state he was in at the time. Thank you for your support.

 

[jncuse]

THIS CAN SERVE AS YOUR BUBBLE CALENDAR FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS

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View attachment 89347

Based on the above probabilities the 23 teams above will go 10-10 in games before Friday. So a good result for us would be 10 wins or less.

7 games to watch tonight per the table.

The group is 0-1 so far this week.

 

[jdubs30]

Looks like Tennessee and Auburn will not capitalize on big chances tonight.

Clemson at home is taking it to Wake - I think we would have preferred Wake to win, but this isn't a huge blow to us - we have beaten both of these teams

VaTech with a furious comeback @Pitt - Pitt still has that nice OOC list of wins - a loss tonight would most likely put the nail in their coffin and VaTech as of this moment is probably safely in. I think we want VaTech to pull this out - but VaTech lost Chris Clarke for the season in the UVA game - so if they go on a massive slide the rest of the way they could play their selves out. Much like the Clemson game, I think we would have preferred if VaTech win this (they still can) - but this result won't kill us either way

Ole Miss is home tonight against LSU - they can't lose that one.

MSU/OSU I think we'd rather see OSU win this one. MSU on the brink and I don't think OSU is close to an at-large

Miss St/UGA - I don't think this game matters too much - I suppose Miss State winning this on the road would be a big blow to UGA

 

[orangenirvana]

VaTech with a furious comeback @Pitt - Pitt still has that nice OOC list of wins - a loss tonight would most likely put the nail in their coffin and VaTech as of this moment is probably safely in. I think we want VaTech to pull this out - but VaTech lost Chris Clarke for the season in the UVA game - so if they go on a massive slide the rest of the way they could play their selves out. Much like the Clemson game, I think we would have preferred if VaTech win this (they still can) - but this result won't kill us either way

I'm rooting for Pitt. VaTech is far from a lock right now (even after the Virginia win) and SU has played Pitt twice and beat them.

 

[orangenirvana]

Pitt's coach is awful.

 

[PauliePeppas]

God I hate Pitt

 

[jncuse]

Looks like Tennessee and Auburn will not capitalize on big chances tonight.

Clemson at home is taking it to Wake - I think we would have preferred Wake to win, but this isn't a huge blow to us - we have beaten both of these teams

VaTech with a furious comeback @Pitt - Pitt still has that nice OOC list of wins - a loss tonight would most likely put the nail in their coffin and VaTech as of this moment is probably safely in. I think we want VaTech to pull this out - but VaTech lost Chris Clarke for the season in the UVA game - so if they go on a massive slide the rest of the way they could play their selves out. Much like the Clemson game, I think we would have preferred if VaTech win this (they still can) - but this result won't kill us either way

Ole Miss is home tonight against LSU - they can't lose that one.

MSU/OSU I think we'd rather see OSU win this one. MSU on the brink and I don't think OSU is close to an at-large

Miss St/UGA - I don't think this game matters too much - I suppose Miss State winning this on the road would be a big blow to UGA

Agree with all your analysis.

 

[jdubs30]

I'm rooting for Pitt. VaTech is far from a lock right now (even after the Virginia win) and SU has played Pitt twice and beat them.

Going into tonight Tech had a 64 SOS and 39 RPI while Pitt had 14 SOS and 55 RPI.

However, Pitt is just 5-8 vs. the Top 100. And while Pitt has a decent OOC schedule - a win @Maryland, on neutral courts vs. Penn State and Marquette - as well as a neutral court loss vs. SMU; they just have too many losses now. 13 overall and 11 in the ACC. Can't overcome that.

Pitt was in a unique spot that if they got in a little run - they would have had a decent resume. In addition to the OOC - they have wins against Virginia and Syracuse. While it would have been a longshot for them to get in - they are now 100% done.

Tech on the other hand is pretty safe. The RPI/SOS is decent and they are 9-6 vs. the top 100. Wins against UVA, @ Clemson, Duke, Syracuse and GaTech in conference. While a decent OOC slate of wins of @Michigan, Ole Miss, New Mexico (Neutral) and Nebraksa (neutral).

Tech's worst losses are @NC State (103 RPI) and Texas A&M (90 RPI). Besides that - their worst loss is #26 ND. Having 4 wins away from home against the top 90 is also solid.

Tech was in a pretty good spot - all tonight did was eliminate Pitt. Tech would have had to have a massive collapse to lose their spot

 

[jncuse]

I'm rooting for Pitt. VaTech is far from a lock right now (even after the Virginia win) and SU has played Pitt twice and beat them.

Good points as well. Some of these ACC games you can rationalize both ways. Pitt was on the verge of the bubble -- they needed to do more than win tonight, but at least now we can knock one less team out of the mix.

I only saw the last 20 seconds of the Pitt game. They got 3 great looks to tie, and gagged.

 

[jncuse]

Overall, the first half of the games tonight went as expected, (in terms of tracking the 23 teams around the bubble this week)

4 ACC teams were going to go 2-2, and as expected Tennessee lost to Kentucky. Auburn had no mentions on the matrix, but deserve watch merely because Palm has them close. They needed to do something large but lost to Florida.

So including the unfortunate 0-1 last night, the bubble teams I am tracking are now 2-4 this week. They are expected to go 10-10 based on win probabilities. So anything below that would be a good week for any teams that win... or at least help us hang around.

 

[pearl31]

I think it's better that Clemson won - they're further off the bubble than Wake and a home win over Wake isn't looked at as any kind of huge win for them

 

[jdubs30]

Ah - Clemson and Wake.

Wake with the heavy love from RPI/SOS as they sit at 30 and 15 respectively in those. However now at 15-11 overall and 6-8 in the ACC - they face an uphill battle and have to get to at least 9-9 in the ACC to stay in the conversation. Wake with still no wins vs. the top 50 (0-8) and are a solid 5-3 vs. 51 - 100.

Wake had a big time OOC schedule - Nova (N), @Northwestern, @Xavier, CofC (N), Bucknell, @Richmond. However, they only won games vs. the last 3. They have 1 top 70 win - Miami. They have also now lost to Clemson twice. They have a solid resume but the lack of top 50 wins is a killer. But their worst loss is us. Wake can prove that if you play a hard schedule, lose all the games vs. good teams, and beat teams you should beat - that the committee finds it favorable. Ultimately if they get in the tourney they will probably back in. They still need 3 more wins.


Clemson is trending in Pitt territory - now 4-9 in the ACC - a loss tonight would have ended them. But they now have wins @South Carolina, @Wake, Wake and UNC Wilmingotn. In addition to solid wins vs. UGA, @Pitt, and @Alabama. 10 of their 11 losses are vs. top 86 RPI teams. They played a nice OOC schedule, but not nearly to the quality of Wake and beat a solid collection of teams - both home and away. Clemson has also proven they can win away from home - with wins @South Carolina, @Wake, @Pitt, @Alabama and Davidson on a neutral floor. They also suffered a loss vs. Xavier (N) by 6

I don't love either of the above resumes. Clemson could really use a win vs. an upper tier ACC team (they are 0-4 vs. them now) meanwhile Wake could use a win vs. ANY good team. Clemson has a nice collection of wins but lacks the big time win. Wake is an interesting case due to literally no bad wins and no bad losses

 

[jncuse]

As rivals interesting to see them fall apart at the same time (nowhere close to tourney)

They have been quite solid programs with respected coaches that are totally falling apart. Oklahoma 4 tourneys in a row including a final four. Texas made the tourney 12 of 13 years.

It's interesting that Texas brought in one of the most respected young coaches in Shaka Smart and let go one of the least respected veterans (perhaps deservedly so) in Rick Barnes. Smart has got them nowhere, and Barnes goes to Tennessee where he has them on the bubble. I have no clue if there is a message there for us.. maybe be careful what you wish for before sending Hopkins out the door for some hotshot,

 

[jncuse]

A couple of the farther outliers on my table won in the 9:00 games.

12th last team in Michigan St won at Ohio St. They are creating some space for themselves

9th team out Georgia won vs Miss St.

So right now, the bubble is 4-4 on the week (4-3 excluding us).

 

[jncuse]

8 Games Tonight. One ACC game of note Georgia Tech at Miami. I am also following the Illinois St game, as Sagarin says they have a 66% chance of winning (not a gimme), and a loss to Missouri St would do a lot of damage to them.

 

[jncuse]

In the 36 new brackets on the matrix (posted after Louisville game), Syracuse is still in on 24 of them. (67%). I think the biggest reason for that is the bubble teams I tracked last weekend went 8-15. So we are definetely in the iffy category with a decent chance.

 

[NineOneSeven]

8 Games Tonight. One ACC game of note Georgia Tech at Miami. I am also following the Illinois St game, as Sagarin says they have a 66% chance of winning (not a gimme), and a loss to Missouri St would do a lot of damage to them.

We want Miami right?

 

[pearl31]

A couple of the farther outliers on my table won in the 9:00 games.

12th last team in Michigan St won at Ohio St. They are creating some space for themselves

9th team out Georgia won vs Miss St.

So right now, the bubble is 4-4 on the week (4-3 excluding us).

Mich St was at home, but point still stands - that result was probably best for us, as an OSU win @ MSU could have put them back in the discussion