Help me understand why UNC is a more winnable game than Clemson

[TheHaze315]

vs Clemson -6.5
vs UNC -8.5
I don't think it's more winnable at all and neither do the odds makers. We're going to need some fitzmagic out of Shredder to even stand a chance.

Clemson was -6.5 in the dome while UNC is only a bigger favorite on their home turf by 2 points. If we were playing in Death Valley against Clemson the line would’ve been higher than the -8.5 UNC is at right now. So in theory, the odds makers do think it’s more winnable in terms of they clearly think Clemson is better than UNC.

 

[Cuse1992]

The thing that makes this more winnable is that we haven’t lost yet. There is no way we can win against Clemson, time to flush that , learn , grow, coach up these guys and go play your asses off. Games can change in an instant , we should get ready for that!

 

[CanadianSU]

I oddly think Cuse might be a better road team this year.

 

[Lukeyloo]

Unfortunately I don't think our defense matches up well here. Whether people want to acknowledge it or not our secondary is clearly not on the level that it was last year, so unless we can get pressure on the QB often we're likely to give up a lot of passing yards. Hopefully we can bring their receivers down to avoid long TDs and try to hold them to FGs when in the red zone.

 

[FrancoPizza]

Offense may score more but is just not consistent enough.

Turnovers once again are the hope.

 

[GoSU96]

Offense may score more but is just not consistent enough.

Turnovers once again are the hope.

What does that mean?

They are tenth in 3rd down conversions, 17th in scoring, 19th in long plays, 25th in total offense, 8th in red zone attempts

what’s not consistent?

 

[FrancoPizza]

What does that mean?

They are tenth in 3rd down conversions, 17th in scoring, 19th in long plays, 25th in total offense, 8th in red zone attempts

what’s not consistent?

By that I mean we seem just as likely to go 3 and out as we are to score a TD.

 

[storange]

Looking at Pitt vs UNC stats , fairly even , Pitt 3 turnovers UNC 0. Didn’t see how the game played out but clearly should have been much closer.

 

[Bayside44]

Looking at Pitt vs UNC stats , fairly even , Pitt 3 turnovers UNC 0. Didn’t see how the game played out but clearly should have been much closer.

Watched bits and pieces, Pitt was awful. Carolina looked a lot better and pulled away easily.

 

[Pyle]

Clemson was -6.5 in the dome while UNC is only a bigger favorite on their home turf by 2 points. If we were playing in Death Valley against Clemson the line would’ve been higher than the -8.5 UNC is at right now. So in theory, the odds makers do think it’s more winnable in terms of they clearly think Clemson is better than UNC.

Admit, I forgot about the extra points usually given for homefield.

 

[storange]

Watched bits and pieces, Pitt was awful. Carolina looked a lot better and pulled away easily.

Pitt is really bad, part of my point. UNC has one impressive win on the season . They should be favored by exactly what the line is (7 ). But I’m not looking at this as un winnable by any means.

 

[JeremyCuse]

What does that mean?

They are tenth in 3rd down conversions, 17th in scoring, 19th in long plays, 25th in total offense, 8th in red zone attempts

what’s not consistent?

Most of those stats are against Colgate, Western Michigan and Army. Purdue was Shrader going nuts and almost single-handedly willing the team to a win. Without Oronde and Jones the offense struggled mightily at times to move the ball against Clemson especially through the air and its a major issue moving forward against any peer or upper level team.

 

[Cuse181]

Most of those stats are against Colgate, Western Michigan and Army. Purdue was Shrader going nuts and almost single-handedly willing the team to a win. Without Oronde and Jones the offense struggled mightily at times to move the ball against Clemson especially through the air and its a major issue moving forward against any peer or upper level team.

Receivers were open plenty, this is not an orande or jones issue, this is an over powered O-line and terrible accuracy issue. Were there drops? A couple, but there were also circus catches made just out of bounds because they were constantly left in awful spots

 

[Dick_in_MI]

I would never say "I think we will lose the next two" because I consider publicly predicting an SU loss to be bad mojo. That is why I never do predictions of our final record during the preseason. Unless I were to predict 12-0, I fear the whole season would turn to crap. Merely superstition or instead complete power over space and time? Well, I don't know...you tell me.

However, the last 5 are all winnable. I mean, could we stub our toe in one of them simply because we are "us"? Would it be, in fact, likely that would really happen just because we are "us"? I refuse to answer that question...see paragraph #1.

Still, when all is said and done, I am hopeful for a pretty attractive final record. I mean, it is understood that we have to keep Shrader in bubble wrap, but if we can stay healthy...

 

[GoSU96]

Most of those stats are against Colgate, Western Michigan and Army. Purdue was Shrader going nuts and almost single-handedly willing the team to a win. Without Oronde and Jones the offense struggled mightily at times to move the ball against Clemson especially through the air and its a major issue moving forward against any peer or upper level team.

3rd down 7 of 12 vs Purdue, 9 of 17 vs Clemson.

Redzone 3 of 5 vs Purdue, one missed fg, one kneel down. 1 for 1 vs Clemson.

who cares where the stats came from against Purdue? It’s because of the defense Purdue chose to play.

they struggled against Clemson, not exactly unexpected, at least not by me. Clemson is the hardest defense they play all year.

no need to expect that to happen the same way going forward.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Receivers were open plenty, this is not an orande or jones issue, this is an over powered O-line and terrible accuracy issue. Were there drops? A couple, but there were also circus catches made just out of bounds because they were constantly left in awful spots

We were watching a different game if you felt receivers were open a lot. Yes there were some but those sideline routes in particular were covered and Clemson made sure our #1 had plenty of attention. Wr remains a huge issue on this team.

 

[JeremyCuse]

3rd down 7 of 12 vs Purdue, 9 of 17 vs Clemson.

Redzone 3 of 5 vs Purdue, one missed fg, one kneel down. 1 for 1 vs Clemson.

who cares where the stats came from against Purdue? It’s because of the defense Purdue chose to play.

they struggled against Clemson, not exactly unexpected, at least not by me. Clemson is the hardest defense they play all year.

no need to expect that to happen the same way going forward.

9 of 17 vs Clemson and 1 of 1 in the redzone is great but doesn't change the fact they scored 14 pts the entire game. Again the offense isn't terrible by any stretch but based on the absolute cratering that we have seen from Dino's offenses in late October on pretty muchy 7 of his 8 years here its not crazy to be concerned about the ability to score points as we continue to play peer programs instead of Colgate, WMU, Army etc.

 

[Cuse181]

We were watching a different game if you felt receivers were open a lot. Yes there were some but those sideline routes in particular were covered and Clemson made sure our #1 had plenty of attention. Wr remains a huge issue on this team.

I was at the game in the 300 level, pretty great view. The issue was Garrett having no time, the WR had space pretty consistently

 

[Cusester]

In football motivation and focus can make up for a talent deficit. I believe that will be the case Saturday. If I were a betting man I’d be taking the points.

 

[GoSU96]

9 of 17 vs Clemson and 1 of 1 in the redzone is great but doesn't change the fact they scored 14 pts the entire game. Again the offense isn't terrible by any stretch but based on the absolute cratering that we have seen from Dino's offenses in late October on pretty muchy 7 of his 8 years here its not crazy to be concerned about the ability to score points as we continue to play peer programs instead of Colgate, WMU, Army etc.

Last three games last year 477, 35 pts, 443, 32pts, 477, 20pts,

21’- yep fell off the cliff last three.

20 - Covid

19, last four games, 448/27pts, 395/49pts, 510/34pts, 441/39pts

18, last seven games other than ND, four games over 518yds, 40, 51, 41, 54, 42, 34 pts

17, last two games, no Dungey 10, 14 pts - still moved the ball

16, last four games, no Dungey, offense had no juice.

‘Dungey doesn’t go out the first two years, it would be one non pandemic season where the wheels fell off

and it certainly wasn’t 7 of 8.

What if this last game was the ND game from 18?

 

[JeremyCuse]

Last three games last year 477, 35 pts, 443, 32pts, 477, 20pts,

21’- yep fell off the cliff last three.

20 - Covid

19, last four games, 448/27pts, 395/49pts, 510/34pts, 441/39pts

18, last seven games other than ND, four games over 518yds, 40, 51, 41, 54, 42, 34 pts

17, last two games, no Dungey 10, 14 pts - still moved the ball

16, last four games, no Dungey, offense had no juice.

‘Dungey doesn’t go out the first two years, it would be one non pandemic season where the wheels fell off

and it certainly wasn’t 7 of 8.

What if this last game was the ND game from 18?

This last game certainly could be ND from 18 and I think SU could easily win 4 of the last 5 after FSU assuming minimal injuries the next two games. That said I also think its more then fair for people to be skeptical that the torrid pace the team was on prior to Clemson will hold up against the peer schools of the ACC. UNC and Va tech are the two biggest tests, SU should at minimum be at upper 20's in both and really in the 30's for Va tech. Dino's history here leaves that a legit question. Even in 2019 two of those big outputs was because SU was getting killed 58-27 loss to BC and 56-34 to Lville and the last game SU scored 13 pts in OT vs Wake

 

[GoSU96]

This last game certainly could be ND from 18 and I think SU could easily win 4 of the last 5 after FSU assuming minimal injuries the next two games. That said I also think its more then fair for people to be skeptical that the torrid pace the team was on prior to Clemson will hold up against the peer schools of the ACC. UNC and Va tech are the two biggest tests, SU should at minimum be at upper 20's in both and really in the 30's for Va tech. Dino's history here leaves that a legit question. Even in 2019 two of those big outputs was because SU was getting killed 58-27 loss to BC and 56-34 to Lville and the last game SU scored 13 pts in OT vs Wake

None of that is what I was addressing to the original lunatic post. He was talking about this year and how the offense has been inconsistent. It’s a ridiculous assertion.

You’ve brought in this year as if I was projecting they are going to continue to average 38pts a game and 463 yds a game. Who knows, they get guys back and don’t lose anyone, that’s very doable.

You asserted the offense collapsed 7 of 8 years. 21 it clearly did. Other than that, it’s not true.

 

[anglerman]

Clemson has better athletes at almost every position than NC. That’s why this game is different period

 

[JeremyCuse]

None of that is what I was addressing to the original lunatic post. He was talking about this year and how the offense has been inconsistent. It’s a ridiculous assertion.

You’ve brought in this year as if I was projecting they are going to continue to average 38pts a game and 463 yds a game. Who knows, they get guys back and don’t lose anyone, that’s very doable.

You asserted the offense collapsed 7 of 8 years. 21 it clearly did. Other than that, it’s not true.

Were discussing a different issue then what the OP brought up. YOu noted that SU was currently tenth in 3rd down conversions, 17th in scoring, 19th in long plays, 25th in total offense, 8th in red zone attempts. I responded by indicating that was mostly against bad teams and history says its unlikely SU will be able to keep that up or really anything close to that because the offense usually craters later in the year.

I never insinuated that you felt they were going to continue to average 38 and 463, no idea where you got that from.

As for the collapse in 7 of 8 years late in the season, yes that is mostly accurate with a couple exceptions. Crater might have been a tad strong but I already noted how in 2019 most of the points were in garbage time, 2020 the O was awful late or really most of the year, 2021 it collapsed the last month + and even in 2022, SU scored 9 and 3 pts in 2 of the last 4 and barely broke 30 against a god awful BC team. Again I am not saying this year is destined to be a repeat but clearly the offense has been mediocre most years late in the season* outside of 2018

 

[GoSU96]

By that I mean we seem just as likely to go 3 and out as we are to score a TD.

What?

That is just stupid. They’ve had 10 three and outs in 5 games. 3 when the second and third strings were in.

Those same five games 23 offensive tds and 6 fgs on 62 possessions.