I'm still trying to understand Marrone's decision to kick the FG in the 4th

[orangenirvana]

It's still driving me nuts.

Stat guru's out there - what is the higher rate of success?

Converting a 4th and 3?
Or making a 42 yard FG?

Consider the following...

• Syracuse's offense was averaging 5.99 yards per play at the time of the decision
• On that drive alone, Syracuse's offense was averaging 7.14 yards per play
• It had been raining for a while
• Kicking team had already had a FG blocked
• Krautman is not exactly Olindo Mare - tied for 92nd in the nation in FG percentage (10 of 18)
• Krautman has attempted only 4 FG's at 40+ all season to that point (50%), and none of those were attempted in wet conditions

Benefits to making the FG (1)

1. It pulls you to within 8 points. You're down 11 in the 4th quarter, so even if Krautman defies all odds and makes the FG, you still need a defensive stop and a touchdown and a two-point conversion...and that's just to tie the game.

Benefits to converting the 4th and 3 (3)

1. Keeps drive alive to score a touchdown
2. Gets closer for a FG attempt later on
3. 4th down conversions are often morale boosters for offenses

Where in Marrone's Coaching Decisions for Dummies book does it say it's a good idea to attempt a FG in that situation?

 

[OrangeinBoston]

It's still driving me nuts.

Stat guru's out there - what is the higher rate of success?

Converting a 4th and 3?
Or making a 42 yard FG?

Consider the following...

• Syracuse's offense was averaging 5.99 yards per play at the time of the decision
• On that drive alone, Syracuse's offense was averaging 7.14 yards per play
• It had been raining for a while
• Kicking team had already had a FG blocked
• Krautman is not exactly Olindo Mare - tied for 92nd in the nation in FG percentage (10 of 18)
• Krautman has attempted only 4 FG's at 40+ all season to that point (50%), and none of those were attempted in wet conditions

Benefits to making the FG (1)


1. It pulls you to within 8 points. You're down 11 in the 4th quarter, so even if Krautman defies all odds and makes the FG, you still need a defensive stop and a touchdown and a two-point conversion...and that's just to tie the game.

Benefits to converting the 4th and 3 (3)

1. Keeps drive alive to score a touchdown
2. Gets closer for a FG attempt later on
3. 4th down conversions are often morale boosters for offenses

Where in Marrone's Coaching Decisions for Dummies book does it say it's a good idea to attempt a FG in that situation?

He said in a postgame interview that he thought SU was down 9 points. Aaarghhh...

 

[PhatOrange]

How much time was left?

Was it still plausible to get two more possessions? FG, TD, FG?

 

[Millhouse]

It's still driving me nuts.

Stat guru's out there - what is the higher rate of success?

Converting a 4th and 3?
Or making a 42 yard FG?

Consider the following...

• Syracuse's offense was averaging 5.99 yards per play at the time of the decision
• On that drive alone, Syracuse's offense was averaging 7.14 yards per play
• It had been raining for a while
• Kicking team had already had a FG blocked
• Krautman is not exactly Olindo Mare - tied for 92nd in the nation in FG percentage (10 of 18)
• Krautman has attempted only 4 FG's at 40+ all season to that point (50%), and none of those were attempted in wet conditions

Benefits to making the FG (1)


1. It pulls you to within 8 points. You're down 11 in the 4th quarter, so even if Krautman defies all odds and makes the FG, you still need a defensive stop and a touchdown and a two-point conversion...and that's just to tie the game.

Benefits to converting the 4th and 3 (3)

1. Keeps drive alive to score a touchdown
2. Gets closer for a FG attempt later on
3. 4th down conversions are often morale boosters for offenses

Where in Marrone's Coaching Decisions for Dummies book does it say it's a good idea to attempt a FG in that situation?

the best case scenario of making the kick is that you'll have to make the same conversion that you're foregoing right now

if you need touchdowns go for touchdowns

i get that football coaches are all big stupid dumbasses. i've actually come to accept it. anyone that isn't a big stupid dumbass probably hasn't spent their lives perfecting the art of crushing people. so there's a tradeoff.

big stupid dumbasses need to have simple crude rules that don't always work out. i get that too. but why must their simple crude rules always point towards using soccer players?

if you need touchdowns, try to get touchdowns.

 

[Pyle]

If you go for it and don't get it, then everyone's mad that you didn't take the points. Can't get any simpler than that. Hindsight is always 20/20

 

[OrangeXtreme]

If you go for it and don't get it, then everyone's mad that you didn't take the points. Can't get any simpler than that. Hindsight is always 20/20

Against Stonybrook, everyone was mad that Marrone didn't kick the FG. That was 4th and goal from inside the 1.

Can't blame Marrone for reading the message boards, and giving the people what they want.

 

[DPCuse]

The reason is simple. To keep the game alive, you take the path with the best odds of success which was making the field goal and playing for the TD later on. To me you had better odds making that field goal than you had converting on 4th down. And you have to get it to one score to have a chance. Getting it to a one score game regardless of the deficit puts the pressure on Cincy and most likely gets them conservative with their play calling. So I can see why he chose that route. Unfortunately he missed it and it backfired. But I'm fine with the decision.

 

[Millhouse]

If you go for it and don't get it, then everyone's mad that you didn't take the points. Can't get any simpler than that.

that's just not true.

 

[Pyle]

that's just not true.

Ok fine, everyone's mad but you.

 

[orangenirvana]

If you go for it and don't get it, then everyone's mad that you didn't take the points. Can't get any simpler than that. Hindsight is always 20/20

1. That's absolutely not true
2. Marrone's decisions should be based on what will more likely win the game, and not "They're going to be mad at me."

 

[Halfmooncuse]

It's still driving me nuts.



1. It pulls you to within 8 points. You're down 11 in the 4th quarter, so even if Krautman defies all odds and makes the FG, you still need a defensive stop and a touchdown and a two-point conversion...and that's just to tie the game.
yup agree need three scores to win even if you make the fg and a td and a 2!. Go for the first try to get a Td then go for 2 and if unsuccessful you go for td on next possession. Playing for a fg then TD and 2 point conversion to tie is playing not to lose. trhat is HCDM "not to lose "coach and then loses. Maybe he thinks we are in NFL going for a wildcard in playoffs.

 

[TexanMark]

The reason is simple. To keep the game alive, you take the path with the best odds of success which was making the field goal and playing for the TD later on. To me you had better odds making that field goal than you had converting on 4th down. And you have to get it to one score to have a chance. Getting it to a one score game regardless of the deficit puts the pressure on Cincy and most likely gets them conservative with their play calling. So I can see why he chose that route. Unfortunately he missed it and it backfired. But I'm fine with the decision.

42 yards in the cold, rain and wind from the left hash is no gimme. Going for it was the call I would've made. I agree with Millhouse on this one.

 

[Millhouse]

The reason is simple. To keep the game alive, you take the path with the best odds of success which was making the field goal and playing for the TD later on. To me you had better odds making that field goal than you had converting on 4th down. And you have to get it to one score to have a chance. Getting it to a one score game regardless of the deficit puts the pressure on Cincy and most likely gets them conservative with their play calling. So I can see why he chose that route. Unfortunately he missed it and it backfired. But I'm fine with the decision.

what do you think the odds were of krautman making that kick. rough ballpark

the only way the kick makes sense is if you think you have a 90% chance of making it

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/4thdncalc1.php

i'm getting the 90% by trying to match the expected points to the expected points of going for it

 

[Pyle]

I'd rather have to make 1 defensive stop against a team that has gashed you all day than have to make 2. If you go for it on 4th and don't get it, the game is over. That being said if you go for the FG and don't get it, the game is also over. Before that kick, krautman was .500 on FGs from 40+. Cuse was 7 for 11 on 4th down conversions but many of those were from a yard or less. Not from 3. Honestly there I don't even think there is a right answer here, half the people will feel one way, half the other. No matter what you choose, if you don't get it then the game is over.

At least if you make the FG there is still plenty of time to play D and try to get the ball back. If you extend the drive, you eat more clock, possibly turn the ball over, run the risk of penalties taking you back out of FG range.

Simply put, I'm glad it wasn't my call. And I understand the thought process that led to the FG attempt.

 

[Bayside44]

If you go for it and don't get it, then everyone's mad that you didn't take the points. Can't get any simpler than that. Hindsight is always 20/20

Outside of 30 plus you're not giving away points (sadly).

 

[Chip]

It's still driving me nuts.

Stat guru's out there - what is the higher rate of success?

Converting a 4th and 3?
Or making a 42 yard FG?

Consider the following...

• Syracuse's offense was averaging 5.99 yards per play at the time of the decision
• On that drive alone, Syracuse's offense was averaging 7.14 yards per play
• It had been raining for a while
• Kicking team had already had a FG blocked
• Krautman is not exactly Olindo Mare - tied for 92nd in the nation in FG percentage (10 of 18)
• Krautman has attempted only 4 FG's at 40+ all season to that point (50%), and none of those were attempted in wet conditions

Benefits to making the FG (1)

1. It pulls you to within 8 points. You're down 11 in the 4th quarter, so even if Krautman defies all odds and makes the FG, you still need a defensive stop and a touchdown and a two-point conversion...and that's just to tie the game.

Benefits to converting the 4th and 3 (3)

1. Keeps drive alive to score a touchdown
2. Gets closer for a FG attempt later on
3. 4th down conversions are often morale boosters for offenses

Where in Marrone's Coaching Decisions for Dummies book does it say it's a good idea to attempt a FG in that situation?

I was shaking my head the moment the FG team came on the field, not just afterwords. If we hit it, and we're down 8, you are forcing a defense that has been battered the 2nd half to get a full stop, not even allow a FG. If you score a TD, even if you miss the 2 point conversion, you are asking the defense to give up no more than a FG. That's probably more motivational for a unit that is tired, beaten up, and having trouble stopping the opponent that half.

Offense against USF and up to that point against Cincy, had been better than the defense. So let the offense win the game. It's 4th and 3, not 4th and 10. Balance that out with the place on the field, given your kicker, ground that has been rained on for however long, the issues you have with FG protection. Just made no sense. It was completely NFL.

When I saw Marrone's reaction to the miss, which was probably his most angry reaction of the day, it almost made me wonder if it was a stubborn call, like I'm the ST coach, and we can make an FG. Probably off base, but couldn't help but wonder.

 

[orangenirvana]

Against Stonybrook, everyone was mad that Marrone didn't kick the FG. That was 4th and goal from inside the 1.

Really? I don't believe that for a second.

I think people were more pissed at the playcalls and/or execution than the decision to go for the TD. You never kick a FG from the 1 unless there's 2 seconds left and you're down by less than 3.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Really? I don't believe that for a second.

I think people were more pissed at the playcalls and/or execution than the decision to go for the TD. You never kick a FG from the 1 unless there's 2 seconds left and you're down by less than 3.

90% of the posts were Anti-Marrone for not taking the 3 points. There was a pretty huge thread right after the game.

Of course, if Marrone had kicked the FG, 90% of the posts still would have been Anti-Marrone.

 

[Bayside44]

I'd rather have to make 1 defensive stop against a team that has gashed you all day than have to make 2. If you go for it on 4th and don't get it, the game is over. That being said if you go for the FG and don't get it, the game is also over. Before that kick, krautman was .500 on FGs from 40+. Cuse was 7 for 11 on 4th down conversions but many of those were from a yard or less. Not from 3. Honestly there I don't even think there is a right answer here, half the people will feel one way, half the other. No matter what you choose, if you don't get it then the game is over.

At least if you make the FG there is still plenty of time to play D and try to get the ball back. If you extend the drive, you eat more clock, possibly turn the ball over, run the risk of penalties taking you back out of FG range.

Simply put, I'm glad it wasn't my call. And I understand the thought process that led to the FG attempt.

I hate the extend the game logic. The best way to win is to try to score touchdowns and hold onto the ball. No one thought Krautman was gonna make that kick.

 

[orangenirvana]

The reason is simple. To keep the game alive, you take the path with the best odds of success which was making the field goal and playing for the TD later on. To me you had better odds making that field goal than you had converting on 4th down. And you have to get it to one score to have a chance. Getting it to a one score game regardless of the deficit puts the pressure on Cincy and most likely gets them conservative with their play calling. So I can see why he chose that route. Unfortunately he missed it and it backfired. But I'm fine with the decision.

I listed reasons why that assertion is ridiculous. The offense was averaging 6 yards per play from scrimmage. They needed half that. Krautman is in the bottom 10% in the country.

Do you have anything to back up your feeling?

 

[Millhouse]

Ok fine, everyone's mad but you.

nope

that's just a crappy presumption made by am radio guys

you hear it at the games when people yell go for it. no one boos a team going for it. why is that? because wisdom of crowds applies to probabilities and estimates of expected values.

and as others said, even if fans are hypocrites, who cares?

 

[Millhouse]

I hate the extend the game logic. The best way to win is to try to score touchdowns and hold onto the ball. No one thought Krautman was gonna make that kick.

i say it all the time the goal is to maximize your odds of winning, not to maximize the time where your odds of winning are greater than zero.

 

[Orangello]

I have to believe the odds of Krautman making that FG in those conditions given his performance to that point, is less than 50%. That's why I thought it was the wrong call.

 

[Pyle]

I listed reasons why that assertion is ridiculous. The offense was averaging 6 yards per play from scrimmage. They needed half that. Krautman is in the bottom 10% in the country.

Do you have anything to back up your feeling?

You do know how averages are calculated right? If you run the ball 9 times for 1 yard each then bust one for 41 then you are averaging 5 yards per play. However, what is the most likely outcome of your next run. Less than 5, exactly 5, or more than 5? There is a 90% chance your next run will be for less than 5 yards.

 

[orangenirvana]

I'd rather have to make 1 defensive stop against a team that has gashed you all day than have to make 2. If you go for it on 4th and don't get it, the game is over. That being said if you go for the FG and don't get it, the game is also over. Before that kick, krautman was .500 on FGs from 40+. Cuse was 7 for 11 on 4th down conversions but many of those were from a yard or less. Not from 3. Honestly there I don't even think there is a right answer here, half the people will feel one way, half the other. No matter what you choose, if you don't get it then the game is over.

At least if you make the FG there is still plenty of time to play D and try to get the ball back. If you extend the drive, you eat more clock, possibly turn the ball over, run the risk of penalties taking you back out of FG range.

Simply put, I'm glad it wasn't my call. And I understand the thought process that led to the FG attempt.

There was 12+ mins left. The game was far from over.

I hope that wasn't Marrone's attitude at the time. But based on his standing fetal position reaction to the miss...