I'm still trying to understand Marrone's decision to kick the FG in the 4th

[OrangePA]

And by the same token, you're telling your offense you don't believe they can convert a 4th and 3 and would rather trust the 92nd best kicker in the country than rely on them to gain three measly yards in a game dominated by offense.

Putting your kicker in a near impossible situation is not a confidence boost.

And look at what happened to the offense after Marrone showed his lack of faith in them.

Near impossible?

Wow.

I don't know how you come up with that.

Do you attend practice every day?

 

[Millhouse]

When you're down 11 points in the 4th quarter and have 4th and 3 on the opponents' 25 yard line, your decision to go for it is telling the kicker that you don't believe in him?

What is it telling your offense?

it tells them and everyone else that he's not that bright

2 of our last 3 coaches are too stupid to do simpler math in the 4th quarter and the 3rd was too stupid for any 4th quarter decision to matter

 

[Millhouse]

Well, two things come to mind.

First, Marrone sees the kid kick everyday in practice - he knows better than we do what the odds are for making the FG.

Second, Marrone may, in part, be investing in the Krautman - he may have made a decision to have him kick in order to give him confidence 0r to convey his confidence in the young man. Giving the player the confidence to perform is part of coaching.

If you go for the first down in that situation you're telling your kicker - the guy you will need to rely on for the next year and a half - that you don't believe in him.

And that might be a mistake.

the imputed odds of a successful field goal try would have to be outrageously high in order for the math to not be completely stupid. and that's not even considering that kicking a FG would require a do or die 4th and short later on just to tie.

 

[orangenirvana]

Near impossible?

Wow.

I don't know how you come up with that.

Do you attend practice every day?

Slight exaggeration.

Rain. Wind. Has been unreliable all season. Already had a FG blocked that day. Few 40+ FG attempts in his career.

Taking all that into consideration, there's probably a 20-30% chance he makes the kick. As opposed to a 70-80% chance they convert the 4th and 3.

Just not fair to Krautman to put him in that situation. Putting the odds of success aside, there was a lot to lose and very little to gain by trotting the kicker out there.

 

[Millhouse]

More dead horse beating statistics...

Up to that point in the game, Syracuse's offense had 15 plays between the Cincinnati 15 and 36 yard lines. They gained at least three yards on 11 of those plays.

That's 73.3%

Significantly higher than Krautman's 55.6% 92nd ranked season average.

Here's another way to look at it.

Let's assume if you get the first down, you either score a td or attempt a FG

Expected value of kicking = 55% fg percentage * 3 points. 1.65 expected points

Now we look at go for it. You have a 73% chance of getting it. Now, let's assume that even if they picked it up, they'd only get a TD 12% of the time.

Expected value of going for it. TD 12% of the time 73% you get the first down * 12% you get the TD after that * 7 = .61 points. FG attempt 88% of the time 73% chance of first down * 88% of the time you kick * 55% of the time you make it * 3 points = 1.67 expected points

Even if you think that we only have a one in eight chance (stupidly low) of getting a TD after converting the fourth down, it still has a higher expected value than kicking.

It's completely f*cking crazy to think that you have less than 1/8 chance from the other team's 20 or so but then bank on a long TD drive and a 4th down conversion after that merely to tie the game.

No one needs to do this actual math. It's common sense. We need TDs. The endzone is right there. Don't kick

 

[44cuse]

When you're down 11 points in the 4th quarter and have 4th and 3 on the opponents' 25 yard line, your decision to go for it is telling the kicker that you don't believe in him?

What is it telling your offense?

^^^^^ This.

44cuse

 

[tbonezone]

IMO 4th and long in that scenario then you chance the kick.but 4th and short in the 4th was a no brainer. wimp ass call.

 

[OrangeDW]

If you go for it and don't get it, then everyone's mad that you didn't take the points. Can't get any simpler than that. Hindsight is always 20/20

I doubt that any Syracuse fans considered that "taking the points" though. I'm sure everyone knew we wouldn't be getting any points out of that FG attempt.