I'm still trying to understand Marrone's decision to kick the FG in the 4th

[Millhouse]

I was shaking my head the moment the FG team came on the field, not just afterwords. If we hit it, and we're down 8, you are forcing a defense that has been battered the 2nd half to get a full stop, not even allow a FG. If you score a TD, even if you miss the 2 point conversion, you are asking the defense to give up no more than a FG. That's probably more motivational for a unit that is tired, beaten up, and having trouble stopping the opponent that half.

Offense against USF and up to that point against Cincy, had been better than the defense. So let the offense win the game. It's 4th and 3, not 4th and 10. Balance that out with the place on the field, given your kicker, ground that has been rained on for however long, the issues you have with FG protection. Just made no sense. It was completely NFL.

When I saw Marrone's reaction to the miss, which was probably his most angry reaction of the day, it almost made me wonder if it was a stubborn call, like I'm the ST coach, and we can make an FG. Probably off base, but couldn't help but wonder.

meatheads have unrealistic expectations of kickers because know nothing about kicking.

kickers need to make everything inside 50 yards

and punters need to put punts out of bounds inside the 5.

the only way you can justify kicking mathematically is to be absolutely sure he'll make it

 

[Millhouse]

You do know how averages are calculated right? If you run the ball 9 times for 1 yard each then bust one for 41 then you are averaging 5 yards per play. However, what is the most likely outcome of your next run. Less than 5, exactly 5, or more than 5? There is a 90% chance your next run will be for less than 5 yards.

do you think that's how it goes for our offense?

 

[Pyle]

meatheads have unrealistic expectations of kickers because know nothing about kicking.

kickers need to make everything inside 50 yards

and punters need to put punts out of bounds inside the 5.

the only way you can justify kicking mathematically is to be absolutely sure he'll make it

If you think there is absolute certainty to anything happening on a football field then you are watching the wrong sport.

 

[Cuseregular]

It's still driving me nuts.

Stat guru's out there - what is the higher rate of success?

Converting a 4th and 3?
Or making a 42 yard FG?

Consider the following...

• Syracuse's offense was averaging 5.99 yards per play at the time of the decision
• On that drive alone, Syracuse's offense was averaging 7.14 yards per play
• It had been raining for a while
• Kicking team had already had a FG blocked
• Krautman is not exactly Olindo Mare - tied for 92nd in the nation in FG percentage (10 of 18)
• Krautman has attempted only 4 FG's at 40+ all season to that point (50%), and none of those were attempted in wet conditions

Benefits to making the FG (1)

1. It pulls you to within 8 points. You're down 11 in the 4th quarter, so even if Krautman defies all odds and makes the FG, you still need a defensive stop and a touchdown and a two-point conversion...and that's just to tie the game.

Benefits to converting the 4th and 3 (3)

1. Keeps drive alive to score a touchdown
2. Gets closer for a FG attempt later on
3. 4th down conversions are often morale boosters for offenses

Where in Marrone's Coaching Decisions for Dummies book does it say it's a good idea to attempt a FG in that situation?

he was going for the 9 point FG, dont you get it?

 

[Pyle]

do you think that's how it goes for our offense?

I'm not even sure what you are asking, my point though is that averages don't always affect probability. Averages are easily skewed by large numbers outside the range of normal probability.

 

[Millhouse]

I'm not even sure what you are asking, my point though is that averages don't always affect probability. Averages are easily skewed by large numbers outside the range of normal probability.

do you think our offense is a feast or famine big play offense?

 

[JeremyCuse]

Against Stonybrook, everyone was mad that Marrone didn't kick the FG. That was 4th and goal from inside the 1.

Can't blame Marrone for reading the message boards, and giving the people what they want.

Two totally different situations that arent even on the same spectrum.

 

[Millhouse]

If you think there is absolute certainty to anything happening on a football field then you are watching the wrong sport.

i was imitating a meathead there, i don't actually think that. i was making fun of their stupid expectations of kickers.

 

[Pyle]

do you think our offense is a feast or famine big play offense?

Now I understand your question and see your point. I'm not going to argue all day that Marrone made the right call, just that I understand why he made the call he did. FWIW, Nassib was less than 50% on the day. Are you going to run on 4th and 3? Probably not. So yeah Nassib was less than 50% passing, krautman was 50% from beyond the 40, and with the conditions his odds were less than 50% as well. No matter how you want to look at it, our odds at that point were going to be less than 50%.

 

[orangenirvana]

You do know how averages are calculated right? If you run the ball 9 times for 1 yard each then bust one for 41 then you are averaging 5 yards per play. However, what is the most likely outcome of your next run. Less than 5, exactly 5, or more than 5? There is a 90% chance your next run will be for less than 5 yards.

Ok then let's take the ypp average out of the equation.

Instead, let's focus on plays where at least 3 yards were gained.

Not counting the four plays from inside the 3 yard line...

First quarter: 20 of 31 plays = 64.5%
Second quarter: 17 of 20 plays = 85%
Third quarter: 9 of 14 plays = 64.3%
Four quarter (one drive): 6 of 7 plays = 85.7%

TOTAL: 52 of 72 plays = 72.2%

So the Orange offense gained at least three yards on 72.2% of their plays from scrimmage when Marrone decided to hand the ball over to his 92nd ranked kicker to attempt a 40+ yarder in the rain on 4th and 3 down 11 in the 4th.

Still a good decision?

 

[Millhouse]

Now I understand your question and see your point. I'm not going to argue all day that Marrone made the right call, just that I understand why he made the call he did. FWIW, Nassib was less than 50% on the day. Are you going to run on 4th and 3? Probably not. So yeah Nassib was less than 50% passing, krautman was 50% from beyond the 40, and with the conditions his odds were less than 50% as well. No matter how you want to look at it, our odds at that point were going to be less than 50%.

TDs are worth more than FGs

and you abandoned your big play argument where it was convenient for you. incomplete deep balls skews completion down, that doesn't mean he's inaccurate on short passes

 

[Pyle]

Ok then let's take the ypp average out of the equation.

Instead, let's focus on plays where at least 3 yards were gained.

Not counting the four plays from inside the 3 yard line...

First quarter: 20 of 31 plays = 64.5%
Second quarter: 17 of 20 plays = 85%
Third quarter: 9 of 14 plays = 64.3%
Four quarter (one drive): 6 of 7 plays = 85.7%

TOTAL: 52 of 72 plays = 72.2%

So the Orange offense gained at least three yards on 72.2% of their plays from scrimmage when Marrone decided to hand the ball over to his 92nd ranked kicker to attempt a 40+ yarder in the rain on 4th and 3 down 11 in the 4th.

Still a good decision?

This is a much better evaluation than looking at average ypp. Given these numbers and krautmans' track record, it would seem going for it was the better option. I'm willing to concede this. Well done.

 

[orangenirvana]

This is a much better evaluation than looking at average ypp. Given these numbers and krautmans' track record, it would seem going for it was the better option. I'm willing to concede this. Well done.

Thanks. For some reason I don't feel any better.

My only hope is that Marrone starts to understand why decisions like this are bad ideas and stops making them. Because there's no one I'd rather coach this team, as I'm a huge fan of his aside from these wacky gametime choices that have unfortunately been the norm during his tenure.

 

[MikeSU02]

TDs are worth more than FGs

and you abandoned your big play argument where it was convenient for you. incomplete deep balls skews completion down, that doesn't mean he's inaccurate on short passes

Nassib was missing guys in the flat. He didn't have it yesterday (and obviously not just him).

Millhouse, I'm usually with you and I think he should have gone for it, but Nassib was 23 of 47. He missed a lot of short ones.

 

[Millhouse]

Nassib was missing guys in the flat. He didn't have it yesterday (and obviously not just him).

Millhouse, I'm usually with you and I think he should have gone for it, but Nassib was 23 of 47. He missed a lot of short ones.

you don't have to throw

and you don't have to throw well to have a better completion percentage than krautman in the rain behind a line who can't block on fgs for whatever reason

this isn't some goofy math nerd stuff. we suck at making field goals. we are good at making first downs

 

[MikeSU02]

you don't have to throw

and you don't have to throw well to have a better completion percentage than krautman in the rain behind a line who can't block on fgs for whatever reason

this isn't some goofy math nerd stuff. we suck at making field goals. we are good at making first downs

I'm with you. Like I said, I think we should have gone for it. Just pointing out that it wasn't Nassib's best day.

 

[orangenirvana]

Nassib was missing guys in the flat. He didn't have it yesterday (and obviously not just him).

Millhouse, I'm usually with you and I think he should have gone for it, but Nassib was 23 of 47. He missed a lot of short ones.

Nassib went 2 for 11 after the FG miss.

Which means he was 21 of 36 at the point of the decision. Not great, but not that terrible.

 

[DPCuse]

I listed reasons why that assertion is ridiculous. The offense was averaging 6 yards per play from scrimmage. They needed half that. Krautman is in the bottom 10% in the country.

Do you have anything to back up your feeling?

The offense averaged 6 yards per play when the down and distance when it wasn't 4th down. Why do you think we are so bad in the red zone? Why do you see so many teams stuffed on 3rd or 4th and 1? The defense can focus in on what you are attempting to do. You are more one dimensional. My point was, I can understand his thinking and can not be critical of his choice to kick it. It was a no win situation.

 

[CuseCrew08]

I feel like everyone assumes that if we went for it and got the first down we somehow were destined to score a TD. We have been HORRIBLE scoring TD's in the redzone all season long. And lets face it, Krautman should be able to make a 42 yard FG rain or shine. DM was thinking, make it a one possession game, play some defense and have a chance to tie it at the end.

We go for it and don't get it? We're in the same position having to play defense but still 2 scores down.

 

[orangenirvana]

The offense averaged 6 yards per play when the down and distance when it wasn't 4th down. Why do you think we are so bad in the red zone? Why do you see so many teams stuffed on 3rd or 4th and 1? The defense can focus in on what you are attempting to do. You are more one dimensional. My point was, I can understand his thinking and can not be critical of his choice to kick it. It was a no win situation.

It was 4th and 3 from the 25. Not 4th and 3 from the 3.

 

[DPCuse]

Ok then let's take the ypp average out of the equation.

Instead, let's focus on plays where at least 3 yards were gained.

Not counting the four plays from inside the 3 yard line...

First quarter: 20 of 31 plays = 64.5%
Second quarter: 17 of 20 plays = 85%
Third quarter: 9 of 14 plays = 64.3%
Four quarter (one drive): 6 of 7 plays = 85.7%

TOTAL: 52 of 72 plays = 72.2%

So the Orange offense gained at least three yards on 72.2% of their plays from scrimmage when Marrone decided to hand the ball over to his 92nd ranked kicker to attempt a 40+ yarder in the rain on 4th and 3 down 11 in the 4th.

Still a good decision?

I don't buy this argument. When the D has to defend the entire field, it opens things up for the offense. SU was not going to go for the home run play on 4th and 3 from the 25 or wherever they were. It was going to be a short yardage throw or power run. Nassib was terrible in these circumstances on Saturday. I'm not sure if the field was crowned and that is why he was overthrowing people or what. The D could have easily crowded the box to defend. Just like a goal line situation. And how do we do in those situations? Awful. This was not a slam dunk bad call on Marrone's part. No way.

 

[DPCuse]

I feel like everyone assumes that if we went for it and got the first down we somehow were destined to score a TD. We have been HORRIBLE scoring TD's in the redzone all season long. And lets face it, Krautman should be able to make a 42 yard FG rain or shine. DM was thinking, make it a one possession game, play some defense and have a chance to tie it at the end.

We go for it and don't get it? We're in the same position having to play defense but still 2 scores down.

Exactly. If we got the first down there was no guarantee we go on to score a TD.

 

[DPCuse]

It was 4th and 3 from the 25. Not 4th and 3 from the 3.

I realize that. I was alluding to the stats quoted and our results in short yardage situations all year.

 

[Pyle]

Exactly. If we got the first down there was no guarantee we go on to score a TD.

Krautman was also 50% from 40+ and the field conditions were less than ideal. As somebody else pointed out above, it was a no win situation. It's also not the only reason we lost the game. Penalties and turnovers played just as big or a role in the loss.

 

[Millhouse]

I feel like everyone assumes that if we went for it and got the first down we somehow were destined to score a TD. We have been HORRIBLE scoring TD's in the redzone all season long. And lets face it, Krautman should be able to make a 42 yard FG rain or shine. DM was thinking, make it a one possession game, play some defense and have a chance to tie it at the end.

We go for it and don't get it? We're in the same position having to play defense but still 2 scores down.

you ignore that you can still kick later.

Simple math, simple assumptions

50% chance of converting the first down. Let's stupidly assume Krautman is automatic

You would only need a 43 % chance of getting a TD to make it worth it.

If you lower Krautman's fg % to 75%, you'd only need a 1/3 chance of getting a TD on that drive after the coin flip 4th down.

If you lower Krautman's fg % to 50%, you'd only need a 22% chance of getting a TD on that drive after the coin flip 4th down.