I'm still trying to understand Marrone's decision to kick the FG in the 4th

[Noexcuse]

you ignore that you can still kick later.

Simple math, simple assumptions

50% chance of converting the first down. Let's stupidly assume Krautman is automatic

You would only need a 43 % chance of getting a TD to make it worth it.

If you lower Krautman's fg % to 75%, you'd only need a 1/3 chance of getting a TD on that drive after the coin flip 4th down.

If you lower Krautman's fg % to 50%, you'd only need a 22% chance of getting a TD on that drive after the coin flip 4th down.

I'm sure all of that was running through Marrone's head as he was making the decision.

 

[Millhouse]

I'm sure all of that was running through Marrone's head as he was making the decision.

which is why i suggest simpler rules that aren't fing stupid.

such as

we need TDs, get TDs.

our kicker sucks, don't kick.

or

having the ball is better than them having the ball

 

[Chip]

you ignore that you can still kick later.

Simple math, simple assumptions

50% chance of converting the first down. Let's stupidly assume Krautman is automatic

You would only need a 43 % chance of getting a TD to make it worth it.

If you lower Krautman's fg % to 75%, you'd only need a 1/3 chance of getting a TD on that drive after the coin flip 4th down.

If you lower Krautman's fg % to 50%, you'd only need a 22% chance of getting a TD on that drive after the coin flip 4th down.

The arguments in this post are staggering.

1. Nassib wasn't having his best day.
2. How do you know we would have scored a TD?

I mean, why even bother kicking then? We could be risking injury to our kicker on a wet field when we clearly have no shot of winning. Just have Nassib down the ball the rest of the game, run the clock out, and hope Cincy doesn't pull a Schiano and force a fumble.

 

[Millhouse]

The arguments in this post are staggering.

1. Nassib wasn't having his best day.
2. How do you know we would have scored a TD?

I mean, why even bother kicking then? We could be risking injury to our kicker on a wet field when we clearly have no shot of winning. Just have Nassib down the ball the rest of the game, run the clock out, and hope Cincy doesn't pull a Schiano and force a fumble.

It's really hard to get TDs so we should bank on getting one when we're on our own 25 and not their 25

 

[storange]

42 yards in the cold, rain and wind from the left hash is no gimme. Going for it was the call I would've made. I agree with Millhouse on this one.

I screamed at the tv set before the kick. Krautman has been Mr inconsistency this year, if you have a kicker thats deadly and your pretty sure of the 3 i think the kick isnt that bad a decision.

 

[TexanMark]

I screamed at the tv set before the kick. Krautman has been Mr inconsistency this year, if you have a kicker thats deadly and your pretty sure of the 3 i think the kick isnt that bad a decision.

In addition the line just gave up a blocked kick...Kicking is mental as much as physical (like hitting a golf ball) and you don't think Ross was thinking about the block. The kick was actually well hit just stayed left.

We need a full time Special Teams Coach.

 

[TexanMark]

Exactly. If we got the first down there was no guarantee we go on to score a TD.

But theoretically it would have been that much closer...although with 2 mins less on the game clock. If it was in the Dome I wouldn't have had as much an issue with it.

 

[orangenirvana]

It was going to be a short yardage throw or power run.

Why do you assume this? They had 25 yards of field to work with. Up to that point it was a high-scoring game. Trust your freakin' offense. This isn't debateable.

Another reason to go for it - it shows faith in your players. The fact that Nassib was 2 for 11 after Marrone's decision to not trust the offensive unit may be proof that Marrone gutted the heart out of the guys. Doesn't bode very well for the Louisville game.

 

[SUbear]

It's still driving me nuts.

Stat guru's out there - what is the higher rate of success?

Converting a 4th and 3?
Or making a 42 yard FG?

Consider the following...

• Syracuse's offense was averaging 5.99 yards per play at the time of the decision
• On that drive alone, Syracuse's offense was averaging 7.14 yards per play
• It had been raining for a while
• Kicking team had already had a FG blocked
• Krautman is not exactly Olindo Mare - tied for 92nd in the nation in FG percentage (10 of 18)
• Krautman has attempted only 4 FG's at 40+ all season to that point (50%), and none of those were attempted in wet conditions

Benefits to making the FG (1)


1. It pulls you to within 8 points. You're down 11 in the 4th quarter, so even if Krautman defies all odds and makes the FG, you still need a defensive stop and a touchdown and a two-point conversion...and that's just to tie the game.

Benefits to converting the 4th and 3 (3)

1. Keeps drive alive to score a touchdown
2. Gets closer for a FG attempt later on
3. 4th down conversions are often morale boosters for offenses

Where in Marrone's Coaching Decisions for Dummies book does it say it's a good idea to attempt a FG in that situation?

Just plain stupid, assuming one was trying to actually have a shot at the win..

 

[Millhouse]

Why do you assume this? They had 25 yards of field to work with. Up to that point it was a high-scoring game. Trust your freakin' offense. This isn't debateable.

Another reason to go for it - it shows faith in your players. The fact that Nassib was 2 for 11 after Marrone's decision to not trust the offensive unit may be proof that Marrone gutted the heart out of the guys. Doesn't bode very well for the Louisville game.

the defense deflated after the awful USC punt too. although that could be coincidence

 

[orangenirvana]

I don't buy this argument. When the D has to defend the entire field, it opens things up for the offense. SU was not going to go for the home run play on 4th and 3 from the 25 or wherever they were. It was going to be a short yardage throw or power run. Nassib was terrible in these circumstances on Saturday. I'm not sure if the field was crowned and that is why he was overthrowing people or what. The D could have easily crowded the box to defend. Just like a goal line situation. And how do we do in those situations? Awful. This was not a slam dunk bad call on Marrone's part. No way.

More dead horse beating statistics...

Up to that point in the game, Syracuse's offense had 15 plays between the Cincinnati 15 and 36 yard lines. They gained at least three yards on 11 of those plays.

That's 73.3%

Significantly higher than Krautman's 55.6% 92nd ranked season average.

 

[kirbivore]

meatheads have unrealistic expectations of kickers because know nothing about kicking.

kickers need to make everything inside 50 yards

and punters need to put punts out of bounds inside the 5.

the only way you can justify kicking mathematically is to be absolutely sure he'll make it

Precisely. The only NFL team that can say that is the Raiders. SU doesn't have the college versions of Shane Lechler and Sebastian Janikowski walking through that door.

 

[Cuseman78]

Just a week earlier with 8 min left against USF down 9, he did the exact opposite. i Was screaming when he sent Krautman out there with 11 min left. I would like hm to explain the difference in his thought process between both games with very similar circumstances. Drove me nuts.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Against Stonybrook, everyone was mad that Marrone didn't kick the FG. That was 4th and goal from inside the 1.

Not me.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

So let the offense win the game.

This is actually always the answer.

 

[Scooch]

Trying to kick the FG made no sense whatsoever. Any argument to the contrary is simply wrong.

It's not debatable, it was a lousy decision, and one that Marrone has made before.

You play to win the game, not to go a little longer where winning is still conceivably possible.

:bang:

I've given up hope that Marrone will ever get it. He did against USF, and it worked. But then he crawled right back into his cave against Cincy. I just hope that someday we have enough big play weapons on O and we score so damn much that it just becomes an endearing quirk, like Les Miles.

 

[OrangePA]

the best case scenario of making the kick is that you'll have to make the same conversion that you're foregoing right now

if you need touchdowns go for touchdowns

i get that football coaches are all big stupid dumbasses. i've actually come to accept it. anyone that isn't a big stupid dumbass probably hasn't spent their lives perfecting the art of crushing people. so there's a tradeoff.

big stupid dumbasses need to have simple crude rules that don't always work out. i get that too. but why must their simple crude rules always point towards using soccer players?

if you need touchdowns, try to get touchdowns.

But you need two scores.

I remember very well when John Madden would take the FG during the last two minutes of a game to get within a TD of either winning or sending the game to OT.

He was always a proponent of getting a score when you can score.

 

[Scooch]

But you need two scores.

I remember very well when John Madden would take the FG during the last two minutes of a game to get within a TD of either winning or sending the game to OT.

He was always a proponent of getting a score when you can score.

Always cracks me up how a FG from any distance is considered definite points. But getting a yard or three to convert a 4th down is considered a monumental task.

And no, we didn't need 2 "scores". We needed 2 TDs to win. You needed a FG, a TD *and* a 2-point conversion to tie.

It's just the usual wimpy decision making from a head coach. Par for the course, almost all of them are cut from the same cloth.

 

[Millhouse]

Always cracks me up how a FG from any distance is considered definite points. But getting a yard or three to convert a 4th down is considered a monumental task.

And no, we didn't need 2 "scores". We needed 2 TDs to win. You needed a FG, a TD *and* a 2-point conversion to tie.

It's just the usual wimpy decision making from a head coach. Par for the course, almost all of them are cut from the same cloth.

this is a perfect example of a coach trying to delay losing. it couldn't be a better example

He passes up a chance to win in regulation (going for 2 TDs) because he wants to delay the EXACT SAME do or die conversion til later even though at best you'd only tie

coaches should maximize the chance of winning. even if it means people might turn off the tv a little earlier if it doesn't go your way

john madden was wrong. he was way better than I am at teaching raiders how to maim people so good for him.

 

[orangenirvana]

But you need two scores.

I remember very well when John Madden would take the FG during the last two minutes of a game to get within a TD of either winning or sending the game to OT.

He was always a proponent of getting a score when you can score.

Yes, you need two scores.

But when the odds of a FG are extremely slim, much more so than converting a 4th and 3, you don't attempt a FG.

Simple stuff.

 

[OrangePA]

Yes, you need two scores.

But when the odds of a FG are extremely slim, much more so than converting a 4th and 3, you don't attempt a FG.

Simple stuff.

Well, two things come to mind.

First, Marrone sees the kid kick everyday in practice - he knows better than we do what the odds are for making the FG.

Second, Marrone may, in part, be investing in the Krautman - he may have made a decision to have him kick in order to give him confidence 0r to convey his confidence in the young man. Giving the player the confidence to perform is part of coaching.

If you go for the first down in that situation you're telling your kicker - the guy you will need to rely on for the next year and a half - that you don't believe in him.

And that might be a mistake.

 

[Chip]

Well, two things come to mind.

First, Marrone sees the kid kick everyday in practice - he knows better than we do what the odds are for making the FG.

Second, Marrone may, in part, be investing in the Krautman - he may have made a decision to have him kick in order to give him confidence 0r to convey his confidence in the young man. Giving the player the confidence to perform is part of coaching.

If you go for the first down in that situation you're telling your kicker - the guy you will need to rely on for the next year and a half - that you don't believe in him.

And that might be a mistake.

When you're down 11 points in the 4th quarter and have 4th and 3 on the opponents' 25 yard line, your decision to go for it is telling the kicker that you don't believe in him?

What is it telling your offense?

 

[orangecuse]

Well, two things come to mind.

First, Marrone sees the kid kick everyday in practice - he knows better than we do what the odds are for making the FG.

Second, Marrone may, in part, be investing in the Krautman - he may have made a decision to have him kick in order to give him confidence 0r to convey his confidence in the young man. Giving the player the confidence to perform is part of coaching.

If you go for the first down in that situation you're telling your kicker - the guy you will need to rely on for the next year and a half - that you don't believe in him.

And that might be a mistake.

Well, in practice, the pressure isn't anywhere near the real situation, I don't care how much you simulate game situations, you can not duplicate the tension, significance, etc. It's somewhat apparent that Krautman's mental toughness is lacking. Your second point is appreciable, though, imo, it's not what he was attempting to do in that particular moment on Saturday...

 

[su fever]

When you're down 11 points in the 4th quarter and have 4th and 3 on the opponents' 25 yard line, your decision to go for it is telling the kicker that you don't believe in him?

What is it telling your offense?

The fact is if you plan on kicking a field goal of 42 yards than increase the chances by putting the ball in the middle of the field-kickers should not have to worry whether the line will be able to block-kicking is a mental game and that along with the rain and the left hash decreases the percentage significantly of converting the kick. Krautman has had 6 kicks blocked since last season (none his freshman year when we had a ST Coach) Totally inexcusable at this level. My feeling is if he doesen't get the kick blocked his chances to make the next kick dramatically increase. With that being said probably 50% of NFL Kickers in that situation miss that kick.

 

[orangenirvana]

Second, Marrone may, in part, be investing in the Krautman - he may have made a decision to have him kick in order to give him confidence 0r to convey his confidence in the young man. Giving the player the confidence to perform is part of coaching.

If you go for the first down in that situation you're telling your kicker - the guy you will need to rely on for the next year and a half - that you don't believe in him.

And that might be a mistake.

And by the same token, you're telling your offense you don't believe they can convert a 4th and 3 and would rather trust the 92nd best kicker in the country than rely on them to gain three measly yards in a game dominated by offense.

Putting your kicker in a near impossible situation is not a confidence boost.

And look at what happened to the offense after Marrone showed his lack of faith in them.