Mar 2 to Mar 4 - Bubble Discussion

[longislandcuse]

CBB needs to move to 6 fouls for Officiating incompetence. You can't have players fouling out due to phantom fouls in games like this.

 

[bpo57]

CBB needs to move to 6 fouls for Officiating incompetence. You can't have players fouling out due to phantom fouls in games like this.

Been saying that for years.

 

[pearl31]

CBB needs to move to 6 fouls for Officiating incompetence. You can't have players fouling out due to phantom fouls in games like this.

but what about the incompetence the other way - the many clear fouls throughout a game that are missed/ignored?

 

[bpo57]

If Cincinnati gets a 15 seed that can score I am picking against them first round.
They are not a good offense team. Those type of teams lose early in the NCAAT.

Cinci has always been known for tenacious defense and rebounding but not much proficiency on the offensive end. I actually think they're better on offense this year then they've been in the past. They'll be a tough out.

 

[Tom W.]

UConn up 5 over Houston with about 12 mins to go. It would be nice if UConn could improve from 107 in the RPI to a top 100 win for us.

 

[jdubs30]

If Cincinnati gets a 15 seed that can score I am picking against them first round.
They are not a good offense team. Those type of teams lose early in the NCAAT.

FGCU is a very high scoring team who will be a 15/16 seed.

 

[orangenirvana]

Congrats to Lip Scum for their first trip to the NCAA's.

 

[jdubs30]

Upon up 3 over Houston with about 11 mins to go. It would be nice if UConn could improve from 107 in the RPI to a top 100 win.

CBS has Houston a 6 seed.

They are decent in RPI at 19, but are 88 in SOS and 242 in OOC SOS. They've lost to #158 Tulane and #242 Drexel. They have 6 wins vs. the top 65. OOC they beat Arkansas and PC. They beat Cincy and Wichita.

Looking at their resume, other than the extra top 10 win, ours is stronger. If they lost today and in the 1st round of the AAC Tournament, could they be on the cut line?

 

[upperdeck]

No reason to not at least go to 4 refs in the P5.. then just 2 guys have to move a small amount and the back ref just moves a little. no chasing plays .

 

[pearl31]

and a really close loss to unc

(this one is for bpo57 )
I'm of the belief that this is the week where the proverbial "eye test" can actually come into play with these conf tourneys and the committee splitting hairs in regard to seeds and who's in/out... so, yes, a well-played loss to unc could *COULD* nudge us in

 

[NineOneSeven]

UConn up 5 over Houston with about 12 mins to go. It would be nice if UConn could improve from 107 in the RPI to a top 100 win for us.

No way. Go houston.

 

[Tom W.]

No way. Go houston.

I don't care about rivalries, I only care about our resume inching better any way possible.

 

[blust2i3d4]

It is because yesterday Baylor and Alabama fell apart. So did Arizona State lost to Stanford. Now we only need to not let Wake Forest beat us. Just avoiding upset sometimes is enough. Especially this year. I think after beating Wake, losing to UNC is OK. We might gain RPI by losing to UNC.

 

[Tom W.]

CBS has Houston a 6 seed.

They are decent in RPI at 19, but are 88 in SOS and 242 in OOC SOS. They've lost to #158 Tulane and #242 Drexel. They have 6 wins vs. the top 65. OOC they beat Arkansas and PC. They beat Cincy and Wichita.

Looking at their resume, other than the extra top 10 win, ours is stronger. If they lost today and in the 1st round of the AAC Tournament, could they be on the cut line?

I don't know. I had looked at them as pretty much a lock, but you bring up good points. They have some good wins and really good computer #'s though.

 

[orangenirvana]

No way. Go houston.

This game is unwatchable. I've seen high school field hockey games with less whistles. UConn will lose by 10-15 anyway.

 

[Chris02M]

any team projected as a 6 seed this time of year is basically a lock as 1 loss isnt dropping you 20 teams

 

[bpo57]

(this one is for bpo57 )
I'm of the belief that this is the week where the proverbial "eye test" can actually come into play with these conf tourneys and the committee splitting hairs in regard to seeds and who's in/out... so, yes, a well-played loss to unc could *COULD* nudge us in

I agree with you. As you have acknowledged, I believe the eye test should be one element of the process and would be disappointed if they don't use it. They can deny it but we know it's a factor. It has to be. I can just imagine a committee member being asked about XYZ University. "Uh I don't know, I've never seen them play... but they have an RPI of 44." Thx pal.

 

[orange79]

I agree with you. As you have acknowledged, I believe the eye test should be one element of the process and would be disappointed if they don't use it. They can deny it but we know it's a factor. It has to be. I can just imagine a committee member being asked about XYZ University. "Uh I don't know, I've never seen them play... but they have an RPI of 44." Thx pal.

Yup. If not, just plug the numbers into a computer and the field falls out.

 

[20Plus]

"orangenirvana, post: 2514850, member: 156"]Current situation (just my own opinion, I can't trust all of the brackets out there)...
You have some mistakes


Locks: 25 Took out Butler

1Houston, Wichita State, , Cincinnati-3
2 Kentucky, Tennessee,Auburn,Florida-7
3West Virginia, Texas Tech,Kansas, Tcu-11
4Arizona,-12
5Virginia, Duke, Clemson, UNC-16
6Rhode Island,-17
7Xavier, Villanova- Creighton -20
8 Michigan State, Michigan,Ohio State,Purdue-24
9Gonzaga's-25

25Locks here not 26 that is 1 slots
Extra Butler below added

I count 9 of 32 autos Conferences
32-9= 23

23-auto 1 bid leagues
25 locks and multi bid conference

48
Automatic bids: 23.

I estimate that 9 of the 32 conference tourney championships will be won by a locked team

Which leaves 20 spots available. 68-48=20

Ranking the Bubbles - Sagarin/KenPom/BPI = Average...Quadrant 1 record (Q2 wins, Q3 wins, Q4 wins)

In

1. Virginia Tech - 35/31/29 = 31.7...6-7 (3,4,8)
2. Miami - 29/35/33 = 32.3...5-5 (3,7,7)
3. Texas A&M - 26/32/38 = 32.0...5-7 (8,3,4)
4. Seton Hall - 28/29/30 = 29.0...4-7 (3,6,7)


****5. Nevada - 36/20/26 = 27.3...2-2 (5,13,6)*** maybe counting this twice

6. Florida State - 39/37/37 = 37.7...6-6 (1,4,9)
7. Baylor - 22/34/34 = 30.0...4-10 (3,3,7)
8. Arkansas - 33/37/36 = 36.7...5-7 (4,6,6)
9. Louisville - 21/33/31 = 28.3...3-9 (1,8,7)
10. Notre Dame - 30/28/32 = 30.0...2-7 (4,4,7)
11. Oklahoma - 34/44/43 = 40.3...6-8 (3,3,6)
12. Saint Mary's - 32/23/22 = 25.7...1-1 (2,11,13)
13. Missouri - 43/42/50 = 45.0...5-7 (5,6,2)
14. Penn State - 40/30/28 = 32.7...3-7 (2,6,10*)
15. Texas - 37/40/42 = 39.7...5-10 (3,5,5)
16. Arizona State - 46/38/44 = 42.7...3-4 (4,8,5)
17. Kansas State - 44/43/47 = 44.7...3-7 (6,6,6)
18. ****Middle Tennessee - 50/44/43 = 45.7...3-3 (2,7,11)****** would be counted twice or assuming they Lose auto and still get a bid
19. NC State - 47/43/48 = 46.0...5-7 (3,4,8)
20. Marquette - 46/49/45 = 46.7...4-7 (4,3,7)

Cut line

I think two of these teams below are in from 21 to 29 if middle Tennessee either Wins conference or doesn’t get in (and) if Nevada takes care of business

21Butler
22Alabama - 53/53/54 = 53.3...5-6 (5,5,2)
23 USC - 38/46/49 = 44.3...3-6 (5,8,5*)
24. St. Bonaventure - 48/63/54 = 55.0...4-2 (3,7,9*)
25. Syracuse - 52/51/50 = 51.0...3-7 (3,8,5)
26. UCLA - 45/50/56 = 50.3...2-6 (4,8,5)
27.Oklahoma State - 51/57/58 = 55.3...4-10 (4,1,8)
28. Providence - 51/71/72 = 64.7...4-8 (5,5,5***)
29.Washington - 92/97/115 = 101.3...3-5 (3,8,6)


Done
30.LSU - 71/59/63 = 64.3...6-6 (3,2,6)
31. Maryland - 41/48/40 = 43.0...0-11 (2,7,9)
32. Loyola - 66/45/52 = 54.3...1-1 (3,14,7*) one bid
33Oregon - 48/65/65 = 59.3...2-5 (4,7,6)
34Boise State - 57/52/53 = 54.0 ...1-2 (4,5,11)
35. New Mexico State - 70/54/71 = 65.0...1-2 (2,7,11)
36. Mississippi State - 64/62/70 = 65.3...3-7 (3,6,8)
37. Nebraska - 60/56/64 = 60.0...1-7 (3,8,10)
38. Utah - 58/61/81 = 66.7...2-5 (5,6,5)
39. San Diego State - 55/60/60 = 58.3...1-3 (2,5,9*)
40. Davidson - 67/55/39 = 53.7...2-6 (0,6,10**)
41. South Carolina - 68/77/87 = 77.3...3-9 (2,6,4)
42. Louisiana - 72/70/51 = 64.3...0-1 (1,8,15)

* 1 Q4 loss
** 2 Q4 losses
*** 3 Q4 losses

 

[Tom W.]

I put together some stats to make everything easier to find in one spot. Nothing you won't find anywhere else, just easier to read and formulate IMO. I took the last 10 in and the first 8 out based on the Bracket Matrix most current update.

link------

I put together some stats to make everything easier to find in one spot. Nothing you won't find anywhere else, just easier to read and formulate IMO. I took the last 10 in and the first 8 out based on the Bracket Matrix most current update.

...2018 NCAA Bubble Stats TCW8848.....

Actual link to doc

 

[bpo57]

One thing I'll say about Lunardi - he's a lazy son of a gun. He updates his brackets about three times a week. Whenever you're ready, Joe.

 

[Tom W.]

I put together some stats to make everything easier to find in one spot. Nothing you won't find anywhere else, just easier to read and formulate IMO. I took the last 10 in and the first 8 out based on the Bracket Matrix most current update.

...2018 NCAA Bubble Stats TCW8848...

Actual link to doc

I think I'll throw up my own bracket predictions on the doc before Selection Sunday, see how I do! Link above.

 

[orange79]

I think I'll throw up my own bracket predictions on the doc before Selection Sunday, see how I do! Link above.

I have one little quibble...

 

[Tom W.]

I think I'll throw up my own bracket predictions on the doc before Selection Sunday, see how I do! Link above.

I have one little quibble...

Am I not allowed to post link? Sorry, not sure about the rules with linking and embedding. Just LMK.

 

[orange79]

Am I not allowed to post link? Sorry, not sure about the rules with linking and embedding. Just LMK.

My quibble was not with what you posted (or course you are allowed to post that), it was with one specific team not being in the green.