Neil, you need to only go back a couple of days and read the AP Reports. There are no "projections" about it. That's straight from the reports of the arrangements finalized this past week.
The playoff will distribute playoff monies evenly among the five major conferences. However, each conference gets to keep its tie-in share on top of the playoff revenue.
For the Rose Bowl this is $40 million each to the Big Ten and Pac-12
For the Sugar Bowl this is $40 million each to the SEC and Big 12
For the Orange Bowl, this is $30 million each to the ACC and either Big Ten/SEC or Notre Dame
So in years where the Big Ten places two teams in major bowls, that is $40 million additional revenue more than the ACC. There's nothing fuzzy about that math.
Let me first begin by saying, you were right and I was obviously wrong in terms of the Maryland rumor to the BiG. It is definitely a real possibility.
As for your $$$ statement, I am of the opinion that the new system is more complicated than what you presented, and we still don't have all of the answers as of yet. But, yes, it does appear from the contract bowl revenues ONLY, the Big Ten conference in the three years it will be an OB opponent, they will receive $40 million more than the ACC conference.
In the three years when an SEC team is the opponent in the OB, the Big Ten conference will receive $12.5 million more than the ACC conference.
But what potentially happens the other six years?
We know that ND will get substantially less than the SEC or BiG. So isn't it reasonable to assume that the split those years might be 40/15? If that is the case then the two years when ND is the likely opponent, the ACC and Big Ten conferences will likely receive the exact same amount.
What happens in the four years when the OB is a semi-final game? Isn't it possible that the ACC conference as the sole rights owner of the OB gets the entire $55 million? And if so, doesn't that mean in those 4 years, the ACC conference receives $15 million more than the Big Ten conference from contract bowl monies?
How this may break out over a 12-period from contract bowl monies is as follows:
Big Ten - $562.5 million over 12 years
SEC - $562.5 million over 12 years
Big 12 - $480 million over 12 years
Pac 12 - $480 million over 12 years
ACC - $465 million over 12 years
ND - $30 million over 12 years
Now, when one divides the total amount by 12 years and then by the number of members in each conference, right now the big winners are the Big 12 and the Big Ten. But if the Big 12 remains at 10 and the Big Ten expands to 14, then basically it means that per team the Big 12 gets $4 million annually while BiG (at 14), SEC and Pac teams get about $3.3 million annually, while ACC teams get about $2.8 million annually. So the gap between the ACC and BiG is less than the gap between the BiG (if it goes to 14) than the Big 12. Should the likes of Nebraska, Iowa, etc petition the Big 12 for membership?
From my perspective, what you pointed out above in terms of contract bowl monies is not as significant as you presented it when it is looked at over the entire 12 year period. And who knows what will happen in terms of the playoff monies and the at-large selections? And it was this I was reacted to.
In terms of TV dollars, I was on the BTN bandwagon long before most, having written a post about how it and the Plus ONe model was likely to change the college landscape back prior to when the BTN was struggling to start-up. Still, the difference right now in terms of TV money is also not as significant as you claim, but I have no doubt when they renegotiate in the very near future, that yes the BiG will open up that gap even further.
After a huge win tonight, that is about all I'm going to say on this topic until we find out early next week where things stand.
Cheers,
Neil
