NBA Draft Tonight

[alphaorange]

I do however, a frontcourt of Melo-West-Monroe isn't very complimentary of each other.

IMO, the biggest move I saw was the trade for Jerian Grant who is a pick n roll guard. I don't care if we run some components of the triangle but when Phil Jackson pimps 2 point jumpshots and rips 3 point shooting teams in the Playoffs it makes me worry a bit.

Agree and I don't think they are meant to be right now. West is a place holder for when Porzingus is more ready. I wouldn't be shocked if Melo is gone if he is really unhappy with the pick. I'd do him to the Lakers for Russell and next years #1 round

 

[bpo57]

You mean to tell us that NBA success is NOT guaranteed????

This is a pedantic discussion. Rak has the tools to have a long career as a journeyman, and quality bigs tend to have fairly lengthy careers. Of course it doesn't mean that it is a guarantee. As some have pointed out in this thread, there are plenty of second rounders who have gone on to have lengthy NBA careers--some of them starting / becoming all stars. Just like there are first rounders who bust and barely make a ripple.

Who knows how Rak's career is going to go? He might struggle to make the team he was traded to as a 2nd rounder. Then again, maybe they'll be looking for cheap depth, and his second round salary makes him an attractive end of bench guy. Guess we'll find out. But you certainly can't say with any certainty that he won't be a 10+ year NBA career guy, any more than anyone can forecast with any accuracy how his career will unfold. Using trends is generally informative, but success occurs on a case-by-case basis in the NBA. Rak having success or not making the league won't have anything to do with how other players who've been second round picks have fared before him.

You're the one that alluded to the 10 year + career and how Rak was passed up in favor of so many lesser players. That follows a persistent pattern on this board where posters frequently overrate SU talent in terms of where they will be, or should be, drafted and how they will perform in the NBA. It's so much more competitive than most here think. I recollect numerous bullish NBA predictions for Damone Brown, DNic, Rick Jackson, Southerland, Fab, Kris Joseph, Andy Rautins to name just a few that never came close to panning out.

My point about historical trends was to lay out the statistical odds against Rak having a 10 year + NBA career. Kinda along the odds of a 5-1 type bet if not even longer odds. For me, I couple the statistical odds with my own personal view that he lacks what it takes to have that type of success and conclude a 10 year + career is not going to happen. We'll see.

 

[RF2044]

You're the one that alluded to the 10 year + career and how Rak was passed up in favor of so many lesser players. That follows a persistent pattern on this board where posters frequently overrate SU talent in terms of where they will be, or should be, drafted and how they will perform in the NBA. It's so much more competitive than most here think. I recollect numerous bullish NBA predictions for Damone Brown, DNic, Rick Jackson, Southerland, Fab, Kris Joseph, Andy Rautins to name just a few that never came close to panning out.

My point about historical trends was to lay out the statistical odds against Rak having a 10 year + NBA career. Kinda along the odds of a 5-1 type bet if not even longer odds. For me, I couple the statistical odds with my own personal view that he lacks what it takes to have that type of success and conclude a 10 year + career is not going to happen. We'll see.

My OPINION is that he will have a long career, because he has the right combination of attributes [good size, NBA athleticism, strength, decently refined offensive game, shot blocking, good attitude, hard worker, range on his jump shot, etc.] to make a team and stick in the league. I believe he is a better player at this respective stage of his developmental curve than Etan was [a similar athlete] when he got drafted, and Etan went on to have they type of lengthy journeyman career that I believe Rak could match or exceed.

I'm comfortable owning that prediction, even though I recognize that there are many factors that could prevent that from happening. Yours is that he "lacks what it takes." We'll see how it turns out.

Edit: and I just can't let this go. Please elaborate on all of these bullish predictions on the likes of DNic, Rick, Southerland, Kris, and Damone. Give me a break--I'd be surprised if there was ONE bullish prediction on ANY of them. I recall posters being hopeful that some those guys might find a way to stick in the league--for example, that DNic might have done the one thing [shooting] well enough to latch on, that Rick might have been a good enough rebounder, etc. But I seriously doubt that ANYONE was bullish about their prospects. Certainly not Damone, Andy, Southerland, et al. C'mon.

 

[bpo57]

My OPINION is that he will have a long career, because he has the right combination of attributes [good size, NBA athleticism, strength, decently refined offensive game, shot blocking, good attitude, hard worker, range on his jump shot, etc.] to make a team and stick in the league. I believe he is a better player at this respective stage of his developmental curve than Etan was [a similar athlete] when he got drafted, and Etan went on to have they type of lengthy journeyman career that I believe Rak could match or exceed.

I'm comfortable owning that prediction, even though I recognize that there are many factors that could prevent that from happening. Yours is that he "lacks what it takes." We'll see how it turns out.

Edit: and I just can't let this go. Please elaborate on all of these bullish predictions on the likes of DNic, Rick, Southerland, Kris, and Damone. Give me a break--I'd be surprised if there was ONE bullish prediction on ANY of them. I recall posters being hopeful that some those guys might find a way to stick in the league--for example, that DNic might have done the one thing [shooting] well enough to latch on, that Rick might have been a good enough rebounder, etc. But I seriously doubt that ANYONE was bullish about their prospects. Certainly not Damone, Andy, Southerland, et al. C'mon.

Yours is essentially he has what it takes. We disagree but you're right, we will see how it will turn out.

I'm not saying those views on former SU players were a wide consensus but I absolutely recall several bullish predictions on all of them. Either your memory is faulty or you just immediately dismissed some of those crazy predictions out of hand. Just go back three months ago and the board was full of "Rak is a first round lock" predictions. I remember reading plenty of posts that Southerland was going to be an NBA 3 ball threat, meanwhile he couldn't cover the team trainer.

Rak is going to be 24 in December. That alone makes a 10+ year NBA career very, very unlikely. He was an underachiever for three years at SU. Last year he had an excellent year and kudos to him for raising his game. Is it fair to question why we didn't see that improvement over the two previous campaigns?

I personally think college hoops was very down this year. The # of quality front lines that SU played against was minimal. Okafor for sure. The UNC frontline was decent. The rest? Meh.

I think he will struggle mightily to cover centers and will get exposed trying to cover stretch fours. It's on the defensive end where I think he will struggle. He has enough offensive talent but the key to me is how he rebounds and defends.

 

[AlpharettaCuse]

There are always exceptions. Of course Rak has a chance. I just think many here underestimate how difficult it is to maintain a long nba career. We don't have to look far to see evidence of that wrt to former SU players, many of whom were drafted higher than Rak. The fact that just 5 out of 30 2010 NBA 2nd rounders are still in the league drives that point home quite well.

Why can't Rak be one of those exceptions? Those are excellent players. There are many other 2nd round players playing in the league that are not stars. You don't have to be a star to play 10 years in the NBA. The other Syracuse players and where they were drafted have nothing to do with Christmas. Jason Hart played 12 years or so in the NBA.

 

[bpo57]

Why can't Rak be one of those exceptions? Those are excellent players. There are many other 2nd round players playing in the league that are not stars. You don't have to be a star to play 10 years in the NBA. The other Syracuse players and where they were drafted have nothing to do with Christmas. Jason Hart played 12 years or so in the NBA.

Of course it can happen. Just saying it's very unlikely. The percentage of players drafted in the 1st round still in the NBA at 34 years of age has to be well below 50%. That percentage for 2nd round draftees has to be in the single digits (percentage wise). Long shot written all over it.

 

[AlpharettaCuse]

Of course it can happen. Just saying it's very unlikely. The percentage of players drafted in the 1st round still in the NBA at 34 years of age has to be well below 50%. That percentage for 2nd round draftees has to be in the single digits (percentage wise). Long shot written all over it.

9 of the 28 2nd round draft picks from the 2003 NBA Draft played 10 years or longer. Kyle Korver, Mo Williams, James Jones, Matt Bonner, Keith Bogans, Willie Green, Steve Blake, Jason Kapono, and Luke Walton. Korver just played in this year's All-Star game. No reason Rak can't be another Matt Bonner.

 

[longislandcuse]

When you're a second round pick, it's all about fit and seizing the opportunity. I see guys like Tristan Thompson, Glen Davis, Festus Ezeli etc. getting meaningful minutes in their NBA careers. No reason Rak can't do the same.

*I know TT was a lottery pick but I don't think he is head and shoulders above Rak in terms of talent.

 

[shandeezy7]

Agree and I don't think they are meant to be right now. West is a place holder for when Porzingus is more ready. I wouldn't be shocked if Melo is gone if he is really unhappy with the pick. I'd do him to the Lakers for Russell and next years #1 round

The Lakers would never give up a 19 year old potential superstar guard for a 31 year old forward on the tail end of his prime. Also, the idiot Knicks don't have a first round pick next year, so that is not doable.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Harris measured at 6-3 barefoot. Winslow is 6-4 1/2 barefoot. Winslow is much better shooter than Harris was. Much better player.

Winslow was/is better than Harris after his freshman year than Harris was after his third sophomore year.

 

[alphaorange]

The Lakers would never give up a 19 year old potential superstar guard for a 31 year old forward on the tail end of his prime. Also, the idiot Knicks don't have a first round pick next year, so that is not doable.

The first round would come from the Lakers to the Knicks. Russell is not a superstar and may never be. He has a high potential ceiling but he also has high bust potential. Melo has 5 years left and is a known commodity. Russell and a first is not crazy at all since the first would be out of the lottery, most likely. Jordan Clarkson, the rookie PG who showed a lot, Kobe, Melo, Julius Randle, and whatever FAs they could attract at center would make them very good. Perhaps Deandre Jordan at center?

 

[two3zone]

Well, looks like Russell may be going to Sacramento for Cousins.

 

[bpo57]

9 of the 28 2nd round draft picks from the 2003 NBA Draft played 10 years or longer. Kyle Korver, Mo Williams, James Jones, Matt Bonner, Keith Bogans, Willie Green, Steve Blake, Jason Kapono, and Luke Walton. Korver just played in this year's All-Star game. No reason Rak can't be another Matt Bonner.

Then again 25 of the 30 second round picks chosen just five years ago (2010) are not even in the league right now.

 

[bpo57]

9 of the 28 2nd round draft picks from the 2003 NBA Draft played 10 years or longer. Kyle Korver, Mo Williams, James Jones, Matt Bonner, Keith Bogans, Willie Green, Steve Blake, Jason Kapono, and Luke Walton. Korver just played in this year's All-Star game. No reason Rak can't be another Matt Bonner.

Bonner was a specialist, a 6'10" guy that shot better than 41% from 3. Somewhat similar to an SU grad from 1981 in terms of a big with shooting range. It's not clear to me what particular specialty Rak brings to the table.

 

[OrangeDW]

The first round would come from the Lakers to the Knicks. Russell is not a superstar and may never be. He has a high potential ceiling but he also has high bust potential. Melo has 5 years left and is a known commodity. Russell and a first is not crazy at all since the first would be out of the lottery, most likely. Jordan Clarkson, the rookie PG who showed a lot, Kobe, Melo, Julius Randle, and whatever FAs they could attract at center would make them very good. Perhaps Deandre Jordan at center?

How does Russell have high bust potential? Because of that stupid thing ESPN put up during the draft where they put a number on his superstar potential, and bust potential?

As I see it, he can shoot, handle the ball, pass, can shoot off the dribble, has a nice crossover and quick first step, can make the floaters in the lane, and seems to understand the game. Barring injuries, I really have a hard time seeing him "bust". He's too skilled to not at least be a solid player, in my opinion.

 

[AlpharettaCuse]

Bonner was a specialist, a 6'10" guy that shot better than 41% from 3. Somewhat similar to an SU grad from 1981 in terms of a big with shooting range. It's not clear to me what particular specialty Rak brings to the table.

Brian Scalabrine spent 11 years in the NBA. What specialty did he bring? I think Rak is better than he was.

 

[AlpharettaCuse]

Then again 25 of the 30 second round picks chosen just five years ago (2010) are not even in the league right now.

So it sounds like every year there are at least 2-3 players or more that are drafted in the 2nd round that have a 10 year career? I like Rak's chances.

 

[Briancuse]

The Lakers would be insane to trade russel, his game reminds me of westbrook.

 

[Knicks411]

I'm somewhat coming around on Monroe; my problem is I like Melo as a 4, and Monroe isn't a 5. So it doesn't seem like the best fit.

If Woj is right (LOL, of course he is) and the Knicks are talking Aaron Afflalo for 3/36 or something, then man. That seems steep.

 

[shandeezy7]

The first round would come from the Lakers to the Knicks. Russell is not a superstar and may never be. He has a high potential ceiling but he also has high bust potential. Melo has 5 years left and is a known commodity. Russell and a first is not crazy at all since the first would be out of the lottery, most likely. Jordan Clarkson, the rookie PG who showed a lot, Kobe, Melo, Julius Randle, and whatever FAs they could attract at center would make them very good. Perhaps Deandre Jordan at center?

I think the only team that would actually give up a rookie potential superstar PG AND a future first round draft pick on top of that for an aging superstar would be the Knicks.

 

[Orangezoo]

I'm somewhat coming around on Monroe; my problem is I like Melo as a 4, and Monroe isn't a 5. So it doesn't seem like the best fit.

If Woj is right (LOL, of course he is) and the Knicks are talking Aaron Afflalo for 3/36 or something, then man. That seems steep.

Backloaded maybe? But still thats absurd for him.

 

[Knicks411]

Backloaded maybe? But still thats absurd for him.

There's only so much you can backload a deal.

 

[longislandcuse]

Yea, I'm definitely preparing myself for Monroe and Afflalo at ridiculous salaries.

Awesome. Glad we cleared all that space for these two guys.

 

[Knicks411]

Yea, I'm definitely preparing myself for Monroe and Afflalo at ridiculous salaries.

Awesome. Glad we cleared all that space for these two guys.

I think in general Monroe at $15 million is pretty fair. Afflalo though.

 

[longislandcuse]

I think in general Monroe at $15 million is pretty fair. Afflalo though.

Don't mind Monroe, I'd rather have LMA or Jordan but doubt that happens, and lots of people think Monroe could really flourish in the Knicks system and be a 20/10 guy.

Afflalo, at that contract, is disgusting.