No second round guarantee for Tyus

[OttoinGrotto]

I read the SBNation piece when it came out. Who's a better source on this than Boeheim? Agents, GMs, scouts? History says you can't believe anything they tell you. Boeheim has been around NBA players in, what is it, three Olympics. I'd think he'd have a pretty good idea from the players' perspective of how things actually work.

"The disappointing part is, NBA teams really don't even want the draft picks after the first 15 (picks). They would rather trade them. Give 'em away, whatever. Because they don't want that guy, they've got too many guys and don't want to give that guy guaranteed money. So, you'll find a lot of NBA teams trade those picks."

He's right.

C'mon, players don't bank the money. If they did, 60% or more wouldn't be broke after five years in the league.

No, he's wrong.

Late draft choices that overperform their slot are franchise changers.

 

[Waltdods]

I read the SBNation piece when it came out. Who's a better source on this than Boeheim? Agents, GMs, scouts? History says you can't believe anything they tell you. Boeheim has been around NBA players in, what is it, three Olympics. I'd think he'd have a pretty good idea from the players' perspective of how things actually work.

"The disappointing part is, NBA teams really don't even want the draft picks after the first 15 (picks). They would rather trade them. Give 'em away, whatever. Because they don't want that guy, they've got too many guys and don't want to give that guy guaranteed money. So, you'll find a lot of NBA teams trade those picks."

He's right.

C'mon, players don't bank the money. If they did, 60% or more wouldn't be broke after five years in the league.

He’s not right. Golden state paid $3.5 million for an early second round pick last year to select a guy who played big minutes in the conference finals as a rookie. First round picks, even late ones, are highly valued sources of both cheap (relatively) labor and as, in essence, lottery tickets. He was demonstrably wrong about both grant and Ennis, who plainly benefited from leaving when they did.

It’s true of course that agents, etc have agendas. So does Boeheim! He barely tries to hide it!

I’m not sure what the point of your last paragraph is. If taken seriously, it would prove far too much - everyone should just keep playing for free forever because they aren’t going to keep the money anyway. I’m not sure how it’s relevant at all to whether a player should leave as a sophomore or a junior.

 

[manleyzoo]

You're a bit naive here. The difference between Boeheim having an agenda and an agent having an agenda is vast..as in millions of dollars in the agent's pocket.

$3.5 million is chump change to an NBA franchise. With the Warriors, I'm assuming you're talking about Bell. Let's be clear...If Iguodala doesn't go down, Bell never gets off the bench. In the regular season, he averaged 14 mins a game, much of it in mop up time. I know, I live out here and watch the Warriors a lot. Often, he was the last big off the bench.

As for the last paragraph, it was you who said players are banking the money. I'm saying they're not and the facts bear that out. Playing for free has nothing to do with keeping the money or spending it nor does it have anything to do with staying or leaving. I'm merely saying that it's a roll of the dice for players picked after the lottery.

Taken a recent look at the back half of 2017 round 1 and all of round 2? How many have stuck on NBA rosters? Boeheim's point, and I'll say it again, is that it's all about who picks you rather than when you get picked. He means you stand a greater chance to stick if the team that drafts you actually has a need for what you do. The better prepared you are the more chance you have of that happening. Grant got picked by Philly. They had playing time available. If he'd been picked by a better team with no playing time available, he likely goes into the G league scramble. Ennis has stuck because he's been fortunate enough to find teams with a need for a backup point. Denver's got 5 PF ahead of Lydon...think he's gonna stick?

 

[SBU72]

It's tough out there when a team doesn't have much money invested you. With MLB it's more like 99.9% play in the minors -- only 8 since 1980 and two since 2000 haven't. Most who went straight to the big leagues came from the bonus baby era in the 50s and early 60s. But MLB is a whole different animal than NBA -- much more refining of your game needed to even get a cup of coffee. A good friend of mine was the 5th outfielder behind the 1990s Pirates team that had Bonds, Bonilla (in his prime) and Andy Van Slyke. He hit .347 in AAA, ran a 6.4 60, had a cannon, made the 40 man and couldn't even get a call up. There were 3 guys ahead of him who never got more than 30 games in the OF and together made up the 4th outfielder. Unless you're a super stud and the organization has money into you, you ain't getting a call up. They'll trade for somebody before they'll call you up. The front office wouldn't trade him because he was too good to let go.

Everything you say is true but the point is you can shade percentages to fit what you want and if more and more go younger because the percentages says so, the percentages will drop.