that st johns loss is gonna haunt us

[NineOneSeven]

Tell that to Orangehomer or Hulk. The red flag to me concerning Atlantis was that we were absolutely on fire from 3 but won very close games outside of Charlotte.

Tis the season... To avoid delusion at all costs.

 

[jncuse]

A) KenPom sucks at projecting records and ranking teams. Good at other stuff though.

B) 8-10 is more like the expected result than best case scenario. Best case is probably around 11-7 or 12-6. Worst case is like 6-12

KenPom is actually quite good at projecting records and ranking teams (if you look at ranges within the 351... i.e s team is in the 30-40 range). Problem is its a formula meant to rank 351 teams, and some people get all up in arms when the top 5/top 10 doesn't meet what they want or how the AP would rank teams.

The system is not aiming to nail the top 5 teams -- but it is trying to provide a fair evaluation for 351 teams.

 

[Brooky03]

KenPom is actually extremely good at projecting records and ranking teams (if you look at ranges within the 24`). Problem is its a formula meant to rank 351 teams, and people get all up in arms when the top 5 doesn't meet what they want.

Nope. He sucks

 

[pearl31]

Tis the season... To avoid delusion at all costs.

and it never goes too far the other way, does it?

 

[pearl31]

The red flag to me concerning Atlantis was that we were absolutely on fire from 3 but won very close games outside of Charlotte.

The red flag for you was when we beat a very good A&M by 7 with Cooney and Richardson going a combined 4/16 from three and us getting outrebounded by 8?
Like, that's as good as we could have possibly played and we squeaked by a decent team??

 

[NineOneSeven]

and it never goes too far the other way, does it?

Huh?

 

[pearl31]

Huh?

over the top we-suck pessimism

 

[PoppyHart]

Tell that to Orangehomer or Hulk. The red flag to me concerning Atlantis was that we were absolutely on fire from 3 but won very close games outside of Charlotte.

I look at it like they played about as well as possible and still only beat Charlotte by 10. Kinda the same sentiment.

 

[pearl31]

I look at it like they played about as well as possible and still only beat Charlotte by 10. Kinda the same sentiment.

and the two games that followed didn't count?

 

[Knicks411]

Some games you play really well, some you don't. The overall body of work speaks for itself right now.

 

[PoppyHart]

Ken pom projects 8-10 in the ACC. 8.26 wins, to be exact.

We will not go 8.26-9.74.
Book. Mark. It.

 

[PoppyHart]

and the two games that followed didn't count?

We played very well against UConn, slightly worse the following day, but by and large it was a magical three days for this particular squad.

 

[NineOneSeven]

over the top we-suck pessimism

Obviously. That's not me though.

We will win another game this year. Book it!

 

[pearl31]

We played very well against UConn, slightly worse the following day, but by and large it was a magical three days for this particular squad.

I get what you're say, but like I just posted above in regard to vs A&M - they are a very good team and we were able to win by 7 with sub-par games from everyone but G and Lydon - I wouldn't call that "magical."

 

[SoBeCuse]

I look at it like they played about as well as possible and still only beat Charlotte by 10. Kinda the same sentiment.

Charlotte has given up a 100 twice, lol.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I get what you're say, but like I just posted above in regard to vs A&M - they are a very good team and we were able to win by 7 with sub-par games from everyone but G and Lydon - I wouldn't call that "magical."

Definitely not magical. We still had 11 threes. Texas A&M was 6-20 from 3 yet it was still close. We were 19-24 FTs they were 7-11 and it was close.

I actually think that was one of Mal's best games. He wasn't just one dimensional. He put it on the floor great, got some and-1s, and was 6-6 from the line.

 

[pearl31]

Definitely not magical. We still had 11 threes. Texas A&M was 6-20 from 3 yet it was still close. We were 19-24 FTs they were 7-11 and it was close.

I actually think that was one of Mal's best games. He wasn't just one dimensional. He put it on the floor great, got some and-1s, and was 6-6 from the line.

but still - as a team we could have played better - and still beat a very good team (I personally think A&M will win the SEC this year) - I can just as easily say they outrebounded us by 8 and Mal/Cooney were pretty dismal from 3 and we still managed to beat a good team by 7...
clearly we're capable of complete crap (SJU) but we're also capable of being really good - I just think it's amusing how some on this board are completely writing off Atlantis as a "magical" fluke while using SJU/Wisc as the *true* evidence of what the team is capable of

 

[SoBeCuse]

but still - as a team we could have played better - and still beat a very good team (I personally think A&M will win the SEC this year) - I can just as easily say they outrebounded us by 8 and Mal/Cooney were pretty dismal from 3 and we still managed to beat a good team by 7...
clearly we're capable of complete crap (SJU) but we're also capable of being really good - I just think it's amusing how some on this board are completely writing off Atlantis as a "magical" fluke while using SJU/Wisc as the *true* evidence of what the team is capable of

I'm not sure how that translates into just as easily. We were +33 from 3 and +12 from the FT line, lol. Mal played well. 2-8 from 3 in that game for Mal is quite close to where he is for the season- 28%. That was a bad game for Cooney. I know the team played well and probably a bit over their heads at Atlantis. Certainly not magical. I just think we have so little margin for error. I'm not dissing the team and there is certainly nothing wrong with observing that in games where we have pretty much all the mojo going for us that we aren't getting much separation. I would be surprised if aTm doesn't place 1 or 2 in the SEC.

 

[pearl31]

I'm not sure how that translates into just as easily. We were +33 from 3 and +12 from the FT line, lol. Mal played well. 2-8 from 3 in that game for Mal is quite close to where he is for the season- 28%. That was a bad game for Cooney. I know the team played well and probably a bit over their heads at Atlantis. Certainly not magical. I just think we have so little margin for error. I'm not dissing the team and there is certainly nothing wrong with observing that in games where we have pretty much all the mojo going for us that we aren't getting much separation. I would be surprised if aTm doesn't place 1 or 2 in the SEC.

no need to keep going back and forth on this but I'll just quick respond by saying 11/24 three-point shooting for a team is very good but certainly not magical (not that you're using that term) and certainly a number this team is capable of on any given night. You cite +33 from three, but at the same time A&M murdered us inside. I look at that A&M game as how we could do against a North Carolina or a Virginia if we're playing well - at least 2 of our 4 shooters hitting threes while the opponent has their way on the glass - we force some timely turnovers, hit FTs at a decent % and essentially outscore them...
I don't know, we've seen that our guys have it in them and I'm not ready yet to say it was only an aberration

 

[Sgt Cuse]

The St John's fiasco may not hurt us as bad as you think. Some reasons:

Later in the season this portion of the schedule has an easy narrative - Hop was thrust into head coaching duties and was clearly over his head. We looked scared at Gtown and wilted in the lights at MSG. That can happen with a young team looking up to a rookie coach.

We have two prominent frosh in the rotation, along with a new PG and a person back from injury. All conditions that can explain an improving club.

Most teams in our expected range will have What losses (it is happening a lot so far). At least we will have a couple of excuses.

 

[pearl31]

The St John's fiasco may not hurt us as bad as you think. Some reasons:

Later in the season this portion of the schedule has an easy narrative - Hop was thrust into head coaching duties and was clearly over his head. We looked scared at Gtown and wilted in the lights at MSG. That can happen with a young team looking up to a rookie coach.

We have two prominent frosh in the rotation, along with a new PG and a person back from injury. All conditions that can explain an improving club.

Most teams in our expected range will have What losses (it is happening a lot so far). At least we will have a couple of excuses.

and the committee chair is on record saying they will take JB's absence into account

 

[jncuse]

The St John's fiasco may not hurt us as bad as you think. Some reasons:

Later in the season this portion of the schedule has an easy narrative - Hop was thrust into head coaching duties and was clearly over his head. We looked scared at Gtown and wilted in the lights at MSG. That can happen with a young team looking up to a rookie coach.

We have two prominent frosh in the rotation, along with a new PG and a person back from injury. All conditions that can explain an improving club.

Most teams in our expected range will have What losses (it is happening a lot so far). At least we will have a couple of excuses.

I like that more as an excuse in terms of why we can right the ship.

Our losses will not be discounted because of a new coach if we are on the bubble. No chance.

 

[jncuse]

and the committee chair is on record saying they will take JB's absence into account

Really? That is surprising to me.

They have never liked to play god on events, and nor should they IMO. Only for injuries to true stars have they adjusted things.

 

[pearl31]

Really? That is surprising to me.

They have never liked to play god on events, and nor should they IMO. Only for injuries to true stars have they adjusted things.

yeah I forget where/in what context it was stated, but he (or someone else on the committee) specifically said that JB being out would be considered for us.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Really? That is surprising to me.

They have never liked to play god on events, and nor should they IMO. Only for injuries to true stars have they adjusted things.

There was an article on it, saying it could happen. And I believe that was before Hop put the exclamation point on it with the debacle in MSG.