Thinking about Turnover and Next Years Lineup

[capeorange]

He is already gone; invisible on the court. Even the man guarding him acts as if he is gone.

I've been hoping that he would find his shot, what few he takes, but tonight I gave up on him.

 

[pokercuse08]

I don't buy the he got the roster dumped on him argument, the same posters who say that are some of the same ones that said the assistants were the only ones recruiting when JB was here.

This comes up a lot. The assistants were recruiting for the system JB ran, and presumably at his direction. Autry didn't have the freedom to go out and get man-to-man defenders or players who didn't have the right athletic profile for the zone. Presumably some of these guys would have been the same, but some definitely would not have been.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I cannot imagine why Maliq would stay without a promise to start at the 4.

This is why they have to seriously recruit a quality 5. I didn't think Jesse Edwards was even in our top 10 centers all time, but this team would have been much better with him, and with Girard, too.

 

[capeorange]

This comes up a lot. The assistants were recruiting for the system JB ran, and presumably at his direction. Autry didn't have the freedom to go out and get man-to-man defenders or players who didn't have the right athletic profile for the zone. Presumably some of these guys would have been the same, but some definitely would not have been.

He brought in 4 portal players and 3 of then had injuries last year. He knew he needed a forward and didn't bring one in. The existing players weren't good in either system. I question all of the coaches ability to evaluate talent.

 

[pokercuse08]

I think one of the main issues with the roster turnover is that we have a few guys who I would be fine with staying, in the right role. Obviously we need to lose enough of them to be able to go get the portal PG, C, and 3 point shooter that we need.

Like, Westry's been hurt, not his fault. I don't want him gone, but also I don't think we can count on him going into next year as a major contributor. Taylor can't shoot, but he plays hard so I don't hate the guy or feel like he HAS to go. I'd be okay with him coming back as a bottom of the roster guy who has a longshot chance at finding his confidence and becoming valuable situationally. I feel similarly about Cuffe, I don't want him back as a major part of the rotation, but a down the roster guy? OK. Bell likewise, if we had enough talent I'd say "Hey, maybe he develops. If not, he can ride the bench and we've got other guys who can play."

Ironically, the guy I think I most want to see gone is Judah, because I just don't think he plays winning basketball. He's not a PG, and he's not a good outside shooter, and if he comes back that's 33 minutes a game at the 1 or 2 that's not going to a PG or a good outside shooter, and it's a detriment to getting a PG or a good outside shooter in the portal.

Anyway we pretty desperately need three portals we can count on (PG, 3 point shooter at the 2/3, C), plus our two incoming freshman, so we need to open up five scholarships. Benny is 1. So basically four of the above five players need to be gone.

As it stands we currently have:

Combo Guards who Can't Shoot 3's:
Judah, Copeland, Westry, JJ (he's showing signs of becoming a decent 3 point shooter), Cuffe

3 and D forwards who can only do one or the other:
Taylor, Bell

Power Forwards:
Maliq

Injured Centers:
McLeod, Hima

TBD:
Carey, Patterson

Dismissed:
Benny

I would argue the only two pieces that we know we can count on that actually fit on a good team in the starting lineup are Maliq at the 4 and JJ at the 2. Starling is shooting 37% from three his last 10 games, which would be top-10 in conference play in the ACC this year if it were for the full season. That's good enough for a guy who can also drive and distribute, and spell the PG. Maliq is obviously a starting 4 on a good team.

Judah is not a PG, he's only shooting 23% from 3 in conference play, he's too reliant on getting to the free throw line, and gambles too much on defense. I doubt he'd take kindly to being a sixth man "instant offense" type, so...

Copeland on the other hand seems like a good, versatile 6th man. He plays hard, he can play multiple positions, he's high energy.

I'm worried Red will gamble on guys developing, and keep Taylor and Cuffe, leaving us with one less portal player than we need.

 

[pokercuse08]

He brought in 4 portal players and 3 of then had injuries last year. He knew he needed a forward and didn't bring one in. The existing players weren't good in either system. I question all of the coaches ability to evaluate talent.

He also had a... complex... transition. I think he was hired like five days before the portal opened? I was in favor of opening it up for a full national search, but we didn't and here we are. I think we've seen a mix of good and bad this year from Red, but more good than bad and some improvement. I don't think it's fair to judge him on his first year in the portal, given the circumstances.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I think one of the main issues with the roster turnover is that we have a few guys who I would be fine with staying, in the right role. Obviously we need to lose enough of them to be able to go get the portal PG, C, and 3 point shooter that we need.

Like, Westry's been hurt, not his fault. I don't want him gone, but also I don't think we can count on him going into next year as a major contributor. Taylor can't shoot, but he plays hard so I don't hate the guy or feel like he HAS to go. I'd be okay with him coming back as a bottom of the roster guy who has a longshot chance at finding his confidence and becoming valuable situationally. I feel similarly about Cuffe, I don't want him back as a major part of the rotation, but a down the roster guy? OK. Bell likewise, if we had enough talent I'd say "Hey, maybe he develops. If not, he can ride the bench and we've got other guys who can play."

Ironically, the guy I think I most want to see gone is Judah, because I just don't think he plays winning basketball. He's not a PG, and he's not a good outside shooter, and if he comes back that's 33 minutes a game at the 1 or 2 that's not going to a PG or a good outside shooter, and it's a detriment to getting a PG or a good outside shooter in the portal.

Anyway we pretty desperately need three portals we can count on (PG, 3 point shooter at the 2/3, C), plus our two incoming freshman, so we need to open up five scholarships. Benny is 1. So basically four of the above five players need to be gone.

As it stands we currently have:

Combo Guards who Can't Shoot 3's:
Judah, Copeland, Westry, JJ (he's showing signs of becoming a decent 3 point shooter), Cuffe

3 and D forwards who can only do one or the other:
Taylor, Bell

Power Forwards:
Maliq

Injured Centers:
McLeod, Hima

TBD:
Carey, Patterson

Dismissed:
Benny

I would argue the only two pieces that we know we can count on that actually fit on a good team in the starting lineup are Maliq at the 4 and JJ at the 2. Starling is shooting 37% from three his last 10 games, which would be top-10 in conference play in the ACC this year if it were for the full season. That's good enough for a guy who can also drive and distribute, and spell the PG. Maliq is obviously a starting 4 on a good team.

Judah is not a PG, he's only shooting 23% from 3 in conference play, he's too reliant on getting to the free throw line, and gambles too much on defense. I doubt he'd take kindly to being a sixth man "instant offense" type, so...

Copeland on the other hand seems like a good, versatile 6th man. He plays hard, he can play multiple positions, he's high energy.

I'm worried Red will gamble on guys developing, and keep Taylor and Cuffe, leaving us with one less portal player than we need.

Very good post! I agree with most of your points, except that I don't think we can tie up so many scholarships in injured and unproductive players.

We got 2 very good recruits, so Red did the job there. But he has to WIN the portal this summer. We really need 2 or 3 top quality guys, not injured guys hoping for a comeback.

We should look for guys looking to step up a level from a lower tier P5/P6 team, or look for a starter at a G5 team who is going to be a junior or a senior.

For us to have enough spots, we have to get rid of 1 F, 1 C and probably 1 G or combo guy. Taylor, Hima, and either Judah or Westry, if he can't get healthy by next summer.

 

[pokercuse08]

By the way, I do now think the NIT would be valuable to these guys. If that's where we end up, I'd start...

1 - Mintz
2 - Starling
3 - Copeland
4 - Maliq
5 - Carey

Could be valuable experience for Carey, gives Maliq a chance to play the right position.

Bell comes off the bench at the 3. Give Cuffe decent minutes and see what he can do with them. Bring Taylor off the bench... wherever.

 

[pokercuse08]

I agree with most of your points, except that I don't think we can tie up so many scholarships in injured and unproductive players.

I think we agree here, I don't individually feel like they each need to leave, but we need the majority of those guys I put in that category to leave. We need 3 or 4 guys on scholarships to leave, not counting Benny. I'm hoping Judah is one. That means 2 or 3 of the rest. I actually didn't realize Hima was healthy. If he's healthy and can't get on the floor, I guess you give him the talk and then you need 1 or 2 others after that.

I'd probably sort by effort/attitude, given that they're going to be rotation guys if they come back, not starters or big contributors.

 

[zilo]

Here's my wish list...

Benny, Judah, Taylor, Carey, and Hima gone

Incoming - Freeman, Moore, portal pg, portal f, portal c (All starting caliber)

1. Portal PG
2. Jj
3. Portal F or Freeman
4. Maliq
5. Portal C

Cope, Westry, Freeman/portal F, Bell, and McLeod off the bench for a 10 man rotation.

Moore is 11th man and Cuffe is 12th. No clue how good Westry will be though after 2 back to back injuries so maybe Moore slides into the rotation.

 

[Giants1973]

Pg- jj
Sg- Moore or portal
Sf - Bell
Pf- freeman
C- Brown
6th - Westry/ Copeland
7th portal C
8th portal pg

 

[kcsu]

Here's my wish list...

Benny, Judah, Taylor, Carey, and Hima gone

Incoming - Freeman, Moore, portal pg, portal f, portal c (All starting caliber)

1. Portal PG
2. Jj
3. Portal F or Freeman
4. Maliq
5. Portal C

Cope, Westry, Freeman/portal F, Bell, and McLeod off the bench for a 10 man rotation.

Moore is 11th man and Cuffe is 12th. No clue how good Westry will be though after 2 back to back injuries so maybe Moore slides into the rotation.

I like this but I believe that Carey will be back, and I think he will contribute. I also believe that we will roll with Q at the PG position unless we can land a true stud a true difference maker at PG. Don't see Red bringing in anyone for that position unless they are a sure-fire starter. Center, McCloud and Carey if they are healthy are decent. Yes, we need one, but I think our biggest need is a scoring forward. We need a kid that can flat out ball at the forward position in order for Reds O to go. Freeman, JJ, and Q will start if they are back. Brown as well. We have nothing on the bench at the forward position. Bell is a situational player not a starter. Q needs to play the point. JJ can handle the ball and play the two with Moore. Cuffe can play both G positions and might surprise after another year as the kid has talent. Give me a forward who can score of the shot and off the bounce. This isn't a perfect roster, but it will get us to the dance. Last point Judah just might be back.

 

[newmexicuse]

Interesting take, particularly on Mintz.

I see it differently and I’m going to try and refrain from saying X player will leave, with two exceptions. I’ll also toss out the disclaimer that some one or two players we definitely want back could pull a Jesse Edwards and leave anyway, which would suck but is a potential reality.

So with that:

Very likely to return: Brown (we at least want him back), Cope, Starling — all three due to their play. Cuffe, Westry, McCleod because they have burned the free transfer. Patterson because I doubt he’d leave after redshirting. Possible, but doubtful.

New additions: Freeman, Moore, two or three others.

Gone: Benny, obviously

Likely gone: Mintz, Hima

Wild cards: Taylor, Bell, Carey

Analysis: Red likely needs to find a resolution with Hima because a good percentage of the fanbase was convinced he wasn’t the man for the job to begin with and another chunk can’t believe we don’t have 25 wins right now. So I’m not sure he can burn a scholly on a kid too injured to play. Crappy situation, but you need to find some sort of solution.

Cuffe missed two years with injury, didn’t play a ton this year and then would have to sit a year to transfer? Don’t see that happening. Think he stays. McCleod, not sure how much of a factor he’ll be but doubt he leaves before being a grad transfer at least.

Mintz — maybe the NIL money convinces him to stay but feel like a professional opportunity somewhere is the next step for him so he’s gone, IMO.

Could Brown get poached? I hope not.

The interesting group is Carey/Bell/Taylor and my gut says we only bring back 1. Carey still intrigues me, but I wonder about the injuries. Like, do they feel they can trust him to have a healthy off-season, preseason and season? I would kinda like to see him back b/c I think his profile is interesting for this system, but not sure.

Taylor/Bell are opposites in many ways but the same in one key way — they’re players with big holes in their games. My guess is the staff chooses one and encourages another to find a better opportunity elsewhere. To that end, my feeling is Taylor could really benefit from being somewhere where he can get touches. Needs confidence in his offense.

Bell I could see returning but what’s interesting is does he want to be somewhere where he plays 35 mpg and gets a ton of shots. Not sure that will be here. Maybe, but not sure.

Will be interesting to watch.

Really nice analysis.

My only point of disagreement is that Taylor has to go. He just has not shown anything close to high D1 skills IMHO. There are lots of threads out there about how Red is doing - how would any high D1 coach do with Justin as a starter ???

I think Bell comes back as he is our best three point shooter despite other weaknesses in his game.

Carey needs to go, the injuries have totally set back his development. We dont need another injury/developmental risk on the roster, we need to replace him with a starting caliber 5 from the portal.

If we are able to portal in a starting caliber PG then probably Cuffe or Westry go as between JJ, Cope, Moore, and the new starter the backcourt would be looking pretty crowded.

 

[Newhouser]

I doubt Cuffe will leave. No inside info, but I think some people are being a bit too harsh on him. He has missed a ton of time due to injuries and is just now getting healthy. His development has been severely hindered. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot more from him next season.

I guess the other question is where would he go? There won't be a ton of pusuers at our level.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Team needs roster turnover & talent but according to some posters on this board, we’ll do this by exchanging guys in roster spots 11,12 & 13 for starting caliber portal transfers.

 

[capeorange]

I think one of the main issues with the roster turnover is that we have a few guys who I would be fine with staying, in the right role. Obviously we need to lose enough of them to be able to go get the portal PG, C, and 3 point shooter that we need.

Like, Westry's been hurt, not his fault. I don't want him gone, but also I don't think we can count on him going into next year as a major contributor. Taylor can't shoot, but he plays hard so I don't hate the guy or feel like he HAS to go. I'd be okay with him coming back as a bottom of the roster guy who has a longshot chance at finding his confidence and becoming valuable situationally. I feel similarly about Cuffe, I don't want him back as a major part of the rotation, but a down the roster guy? OK. Bell likewise, if we had enough talent I'd say "Hey, maybe he develops. If not, he can ride the bench and we've got other guys who can play."

Ironically, the guy I think I most want to see gone is Judah, because I just don't think he plays winning basketball. He's not a PG, and he's not a good outside shooter, and if he comes back that's 33 minutes a game at the 1 or 2 that's not going to a PG or a good outside shooter, and it's a detriment to getting a PG or a good outside shooter in the portal.

Anyway we pretty desperately need three portals we can count on (PG, 3 point shooter at the 2/3, C), plus our two incoming freshman, so we need to open up five scholarships. Benny is 1. So basically four of the above five players need to be gone.

As it stands we currently have:

Combo Guards who Can't Shoot 3's:
Judah, Copeland, Westry, JJ (he's showing signs of becoming a decent 3 point shooter), Cuffe

3 and D forwards who can only do one or the other:
Taylor, Bell

Power Forwards:
Maliq

Injured Centers:
McLeod, Hima

TBD:
Carey, Patterson

Dismissed:
Benny

I would argue the only two pieces that we know we can count on that actually fit on a good team in the starting lineup are Maliq at the 4 and JJ at the 2. Starling is shooting 37% from three his last 10 games, which would be top-10 in conference play in the ACC this year if it were for the full season. That's good enough for a guy who can also drive and distribute, and spell the PG. Maliq is obviously a starting 4 on a good team.

Judah is not a PG, he's only shooting 23% from 3 in conference play, he's too reliant on getting to the free throw line, and gambles too much on defense. I doubt he'd take kindly to being a sixth man "instant offense" type, so...

Copeland on the other hand seems like a good, versatile 6th man. He plays hard, he can play multiple positions, he's high energy.

I'm worried Red will gamble on guys developing, and keep Taylor and Cuffe, leaving us with one less portal player than we need.

Agree wholeheartedly that Juda needs to go. I don't think I'd hold my breath on Westry staying healthy, it's a high risk with his history.
I have the same worry about Red gambling on players developing.
McLeod seems too slow and uncoordinated, I'd rather have someone mobility and strength even if they are under 7'. We need guys who can and are willing to rebound. I'm tired of hearing my wife yell 'why don't they even try to get the rebound'.

 

[tptcuse]

Here's my wish list...

Benny, Judah, Taylor, Carey, and Hima gone

Incoming - Freeman, Moore, portal pg, portal f, portal c (All starting caliber)

1. Portal PG
2. Jj
3. Portal F or Freeman
4. Maliq
5. Portal C

Cope, Westry, Freeman/portal F, Bell, and McLeod off the bench for a 10 man rotation.

Moore is 11th man and Cuffe is 12th. No clue how good Westry will be though after 2 back to back injuries so maybe Moore slides into the rotation.

I would love to see the starting 5 work out the way you have outlined, with a very good portal PG and C. Seems that Freeman has to start, but our forwards have been mediocre for years, and relying on Freshmen has gotten us in trouble. Judah gains nothing for himself by coming back. At the very least he needs a fresh start somewhere. No idea where Q fits in. He is a mystery to me, as he is so inconsistent in his play. We can't continue to have four centers who can barely play.

 

[FrancoPizza]

I like this but I believe that Carey will be back, and I think he will contribute. I also believe that we will roll with Q at the PG position unless we can land a true stud a true difference maker at PG. Don't see Red bringing in anyone for that position unless they are a sure-fire starter. Center, McCloud and Carey if they are healthy are decent. Yes, we need one, but I think our biggest need is a scoring forward. We need a kid that can flat out ball at the forward position in order for Reds O to go. Freeman, JJ, and Q will start if they are back. Brown as well. We have nothing on the bench at the forward position. Bell is a situational player not a starter. Q needs to play the point. JJ can handle the ball and play the two with Moore. Cuffe can play both G positions and might surprise after another year as the kid has talent. Give me a forward who can score off the shot and off the bounce. This isn't a perfect roster, but it will get us to the dance. Last point Judah just might be back.

Q is not a starting talent for any of our better teams. Not consistent enough. The occasional flashes don’t offset the boneheaded forced turnovers. This won’t cut it if we have top 25 aspirations. We’ve been desensitized by 10 years of mediocre talent.

 

[NineOneSeven]

None of us have seen Patterson play. Griff was very complementary of him, saying he is ahead of where Edwards was when he was a freshman.

If you want Carey gone, you and I have watched very different games where he has played. I see an aggressive, athletic guy who has a chance to be a good player. The form on his shot looks good, and he doesn't back down. He has good awareness. (Referring specifically to taking a jump shot to avoid a shot clock violation.)

He is also engaged. He talked about paying attention to what was happening on the court so he had an idea of what he needed to do when he went in the game.

You have to realize he lost 2 years. He is a freshman in terms of eligibility. His growth could be exponential. I see him as more of a 4 than a 5, but we will have to see what Red does. The coaches see him in practice, and will have an idea of his ceiling.


You want to run that guy off the team?

Hima was a good back up to Jesse. He had 47 (19 Off.) rebounds and 26 blocks in 200 minutes last year. His per 40 minute numbers were 9.4 rebounds (4.8 Off) and 5.2 blocks. We would take that all day from a starting center. Unfortunately, his physical injuries seem to be too much for him to be considered. He may just want to walk away.

I'm ok with McCloud. If he leaves, ok. If we recruit over him, fine. He will be a good practice foe, who can give minutes in games.

I feel badly for Taylor. I think if he could get some shots to fall, his confidence would soar and he could be an effective player. His defense is as good as our starting guards, and he is playing out of position against bigger guys. As a 2G, he might have a better time getting shots off against non-forwards. I would not be surprised if he left, but coach won't run him off. He works hard, and if you read between the lines, he is one of few who understand the defensive assignments and rotations. He has value right now, you just have to look for it.

This is (allegedly) high level D1 ball. The highest level actually. Personnel decisions need to be handled maturely and tactfully, but they will also be tough. You wish it didn’t have to be that way, but it is part of this level of bball. I wouldn’t want to do it, but that’s the job.

I am not going to trash players publicly because I don’t know everything behind the scenes, and I don’t doubt based on what we know, most are good college kids that will have some “immature” moments. But again, top level ball. It’s hard. VERY hard. Top tier competition. Unless told or seen otherwise I also assume every player works hard each week to represent this team. Step 1 is always work hard. But production matters.

There are too many players on this team that don’t produce enough at this level right now. Those are the facts. Will they ever “get there”? It’s not always obvious. I see 4 centers (call Carey a PF if you want) that don’t produce enough. Injuries suck, and they are showing up big time on this team, but that’s part of the entire evaluation process as well. Hima is just not near good enough for this level of basketball. This should be pretty obvious to all. I like Carey’s energy too, but will he be good enough? Way too thin and the injuries keep piling up. McLeod was at minimum a body which matters. I see someone that can’t move well enough though, or react to rebounds quick enough, and is more suited for a backup C roll.

I’ve been a supporter of Taylor going back to last season, but as we’ve collected more data it seems his production isn’t good enough for this level of basketball, at least for the minutes he gets. If you want to keep him for the hard work and the things you “have to look for”, be prepared to lower the team’s ceiling. BTW- It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s back. You need a well rounded team that does those things, but you also need a team with players that can do more than he does, at equal minutes. I also feel bad for him, he’s well aware of the struggles.

The 2 most critical players for me to come back Maliq and JJ (not the only, but penciled in starters).

 

[CuseFaninVT]

I wouldn’t count on Cuffe or Taylor leaving.

Taylor got the talk last year and promised Red he’d improve. Red won’t be fooled twice.

 

[ACCobservor]

I have no idea who stays/goes. But one thing has to change. Am i the only one who sees the activity during a timeout looks like a group argument rather than a strategy session?

 

[MikeSU02]

This is (allegedly) high level D1 ball. The highest level actually. Personnel decisions need to be handled maturely and tactfully, but they will also be tough. You wish it didn’t have to be that way, but it is part of this level of bball. I wouldn’t want to do it, but that’s the job.

I am not going to trash players publicly because I don’t know everything behind the scenes, and I don’t doubt based on what we know, most are good college kids that will have some “immature” moments. But again, top level ball. It’s hard. VERY hard. Top tier competition. Unless told or seen otherwise I also assume every player works hard each week to represent this team. Step 1 is always work hard. But production matters.

There are too many players on this team that don’t produce enough at this level right now. Those are the facts. Will they ever “get there”? It’s not always obvious. I see 4 centers (call Carey a PF if you want) that don’t produce enough. Injuries suck, and they are showing up big time on this team, but that’s part of the entire evaluation process as well. Hima is just not near good enough for this level of basketball. This should be pretty obvious to all. I like Carey’s energy too, but will he be good enough? Way too thin and the injuries keep piling up. McLeod was at minimum a body which matters. I see someone that can’t move well enough though, or react to rebounds quick enough, and is more suited for a backup C roll.

I’ve been a supporter of Taylor going back to last season, but as we’ve collected more data it seems his production isn’t good enough for this level of basketball, at least for the minutes he gets. If you want to keep him for the hard work and the things you “have to look for”, be prepared to lower the team’s ceiling. BTW- It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s back. You need a well rounded team that does those things, but you also need a team with players that can do more than he does, at equal minutes. I also feel bad for him, he’s well aware of the struggles.

The 2 most critical players for me to come back Maliq and JJ (not the only, but penciled in starters).

Just posted this in SWC’s thread but adding it here.

Counting last night, JT:

7.6 PER
41.9% true shooting

He can’t be playing. Those numbers are anemic. The fact he’s starting is insane.

 

[kcsu]

Q is not a starting talent for any of our better teams. Not consistent enough. The occasional flashes don’t offset the boneheaded forced turnovers. This won’t cut it if we have top 25 aspirations. We’ve been desensitized by 10 years of mediocre talent.

He most definitely has the talent. He is a Kadary type player. The question for him is will he grow as a basketball player and use his talent to the best of his ability. Play within himself. If so, his ceiling is as high as we have had in a very long time. If not i agree.

 

[AZOrange]

Everyone is dissing Taylor. Do you realize we only have six players right now that play on the team and he is one of them? Don’t you think deserves some credit for being there every game? Have you ever seen any plays that are run specifically for him? He moves on the floor for both offense and defense, set picks and at least tries for rebounds.

I don’t think people are dissing him per se. But if he’s a starter on this team next year we have not turned the corner.

 

[AZOrange]

Judah, Bell, Taylor, Carey, transfer. Hima retires. Hope like heck we can hang on to Maliq.

If Bell doesn’t transfer I’d say Q does.