Villanova number one in the AP.

[jncuse]

I feel like you can chicken or egg this one though.

Take it as true they are better. How come?

The reason I feel my viewpoint is defensible is because I looked at KP ratings as of December 31 (before conference games) -- to try and remove the chicken and egg impact. They are better in recent years.

Don't get me wrong, the Big East lacks superpowers or even a depth of top 25 teams. But they have a bunch of #30-#100 teams, and not many cupcakes (I think that has to be the case for a league to go 26-17). I think the team "power" distribution (just for the last 3 years) has allowed for 2 conclusions that seem counter intuitive:
1. While Villanova may be a top 10, top 12 team, it makes it much easier for them to get into the top five or a #1 seed.
2. It's not any easier for middle Big East teams like Providence or Seton Hall. They now have a few less hard games, but they also have less cupcakes to boost their record, ***

*** Of course that is just the current makeup of the league. St. John's was not bad last year and they fell. They may have only had one bad team last year, two bad teams this year -- but they are just average programs so they could have 5 bad teams within a couple of years.

I think the Big East is just in a good cycle overall right now. I don't know if it is sustainable. I sort of think this is a conference that could take a quick dive or really fluctuate from year to year, because these are programs that tend to have longer gaps between success periods. If things don't line up they could do poorly in OOC play.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

The reason I feel my viewpoint is defensible is because I looked at KP ratings as of December 31 (before conference games) -- to try and remove the chicken and egg impact. They are better in recent years.

Don't get me wrong, the Big East lacks superpowers or even a depth of top 25 teams. But they have a bunch of #30-#100 teams, and not many cupcakes (I think that has to be the case for a league to go 26-17). I think the team "power" distribution (just for the last 3 years) has allowed for 2 conclusions that seem counter intuitive:
1. While Villanova may be a top 10, top 12 team, it makes it much easier for them to get into the top five or a #1 seed.
2. It's not any easier for middle Big East teams like Providence or Seton Hall. They now have a few less hard games, but they also have less cupcakes to boost their record, ***

*** Of course that is just the current makeup of the league. St. John's was not bad last year and they fell. They may have only had one bad team last year, two bad teams this year -- but they are just average programs so they could have 5 bad teams within a couple of years.

I think the Big East is just in a good cycle overall right now. I don't know if it is sustainable. I sort of think this is a conference that could take a quick dive or really fluctuate from year to year, because these are programs that tend to have longer gaps between success periods. If things don't line up they could do poorly in OOC play.

Sorry, I mean, how come each team improved? Is it so simple in Providence's case that they got Dunn? Maybe recruiting at Seton Hall also improved. Villanova looks like the same Villanova to me.

 

[orange79]

Sorry, I mean, how come each team improved? Is it so simple in Providence's case that they got Dunn? Maybe recruiting at Seton Hall also improved. Villanova looks like the same Villanova to me.

Maybe that too, but Cooley can coach.

 

[jncuse]

Sorry, I mean, how come each team improved? Is it so simple in Providence's case that they got Dunn? Maybe recruiting at Seton Hall also improved. Villanova looks like the same Villanova to me.

Good question -- a few theories, but the best answer in general may be a bailout one -- luck.

These programs have had good teams in the past and also suffered for a string of years as well. Maybe it's just good timing right now that as a group they are on the upside -- I can't see them sustaining a 26-17 record against the P5.

My only theory is that being out of the old Big East some of these schools focus on the top "B" level prospects and don't try to compete as much on the "A" level kids, like they probably thought they needed to. And focusing on the top B's is better than getting shutout on the A's. Just a theory, and one that I have no proof for.

EDIT -- as pointed above for Providence, Cooley seems like a factor.

 

[skurey]

Honestly, I couldn't care less about the numbers. You have great posts with good info, and numbers are important, but there is more than numbers to sports.

I don't think a single big east team will get to a regional final. Maybe I'm wrong, you've probably got numbers that show I am. I don't care. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 or 3 acc teams in a regional final. Again, I don't give a sh$t what the number say.

I think the big east has become like the wcc because nova had something like a 22 game win streak in their conference (please feel free to correct the number, I know you want to). To me that is like gonzaga lording over the wcc. And technically, I called them a rich mans wcc, you need to take that into account for your numbers (though I'll admit I'm not sure how the percentage points get adjusted by adding the qualifier rich mans, but I'm guessing you do).

My opinion is that the big east is over rated and has been since realignment. Do the numbers bear that out? I don't care.

 

[Flacusian]

How the f*** is Arcidiacono still there?

He is going to be there until people can learn how to spell his name...

 

[Moontan]

What ever become of facts to support some of these claims?

The Big East is 26-17 (60% or 58% Rutgers Adjusted) against fellow P5 schools this year.

Since when was the nnoBE* a P-5 conference? Which conference was demoted out of the P-5?

* that's "new new old Big East"

 

[jncuse]

Since when was the nnoBE* a P-5 conference? Which conference was demoted out of the P-5?

* that's "new new old Big East"

Yes, it should just state against P5 schools. No one was demoted. Winning % still the same

 

[dasher]

We need to renew our Big East rivalry with Rutgers!!

I'll pass.

 

[jncuse]

Honestly, I couldn't care less about the numbers. You have great posts with good info, and numbers are important, but there is more than numbers to sports.

I don't think a single big east team will get to a regional final. Maybe I'm wrong, you've probably got numbers that show I am. I don't care. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 or 3 acc teams in a regional final. Again, I don't give a sh$t what the number say.

I think the big east has become like the wcc because nova had something like a 22 game win streak in their conference (please feel free to correct the number, I know you want to). To me that is like gonzaga lording over the wcc. And technically, I called them a rich mans wcc, you need to take that into account for your numbers (though I'll admit I'm not sure how the percentage points get adjusted by adding the qualifier rich mans, but I'm guessing you do).

My opinion is that the big east is over rated and has been since realignment. Do the numbers bear that out? I don't care.

Sometimes in my efforts to be informative, I walk the line between being informative and obnoxious, which I need to improve. My facts still stand and I have no interest in a pissing match

I'll just address the comment in bold

1) So the ACC is likely to have more teams in the regional than the BE. OK, I don't disagree. How does that validate your comment that the Big East is just a rich man's WCC or that they are a poor conference?

Just because the Big East does not have the power at the top like the ACC does not mean they are crap.

2) It's fair if you believe that none of the BE schools are in the top 8 in the country -- or maybe even top 15.

But in a year like this, and in years in the past that has hardly mattered - in the last 10 years, current mid majors that did not appear to be top 15 schools in any sense like Wichita St, Butler, George Mason, VCU, Dayton, Marquette, Davidson, Gonzaga and Xavier all reached the regional finals. 5 of the 10 current Big East schools have reached the Regionals in the last 10 years.

They have a fairly decent shot of getting a team in the regionals this year, only because they are fairly good, and this tournament should be wide open.

 

[pulaski74]

I am not going to say they have not benefitted. They have to a small degree.

But the driving factor behind the improvement of those teams has nothing to do with realignment -- the fact is that they are just better.

I am not going to bother re showing all the calculations I did last year unless asked because I don't feel like being insulted just for presenting information.

But I found the following last year focusing on Seton Hall, Providence and St. John's which had yet to collapse.:
- I usedArchive.org to check the KenPom ratings that exist the closest to December 31 each year.
- I used ratings from the date closest to Dec 31 because conference play has not started. That means that conference affiliation has no impact on your ranking yet.
- Those teams in general were much better on December 31, 2013 and December 31, 2014 as compared to the average of December 31, 2009-Decenber 31, 2012.

That shows that conference is not what was causing the teams to look much better,,, they were just better. And for a middle of the bracket Big East team, getting a similar record was nearly as hard as there are now less cupcakes.

For a top end Big East team likeVillanova -- I agree that it has been easier to achieve a great record, because while you have as many games against decent teams (and in there case more), there has been less games against elite competition in conference.

So I guess after all that my conclusion is this:
1. The Big East had a lot of 8 seedish/NIT level teams the last few years (% wise) with not many cupcakes. this was evident by Kp ratings entering conference season
2. For that reason I don't think it is a driving factor behind Seton Hall or Providence improvment -- they are just on upward trends.
3. While the Big East has had a high % of decent teams on their schedule, there is a lack of top 4 seed level teams for Villanova to face. We had Creighton one year and Xavier this year. The argument can be made that it does indeed make it easier for them to get a dominant record. While they may be top 10, it probably inflates them a bit.

Hey Brother, could you repost that in laymens terms?

 

[HOFCeluck]

Well this is awkward.

 

[Alsacs]

I said I was wrong previously on Villanova and I will say it again. I was beyond wrong on this team. Their D was underrated and man could they shoot the ball.

I didn't think they were any good but I was wrong wrong wrong on them. This tournament run was amazing and dominant.

 

[Cheriehoop]

I've said before that many people here have totally underestimated the effect of the Big East basketball only schools being able to separate themselves from the football/basketball ones. They are now able to concentrate on the only sport that matters to them - basketball, with like schools that have the same goals. Most of these schools have a very long tradition in the sport - not really any johnny come latelies there. Basketball is king - resources and attention now aren't divided with programs that cared more about football and making decisions for what's best for those concerns. The players, coaches are king at their schools, they have good coaches, expectations are high plus fan and alumni support are focused on basketball. I've always thought that they had more going for them to succeed than the AAC where their limited non-P5 resources and focus would be split in favor of supporting expensive football programs.

 

[690West]

Nova is not a No. 1 team,

:noidea: