Will Judah run it back again? (again) | Page 8 | Syracusefan.com

Will Judah run it back again? (again)

atlanticuse said:
That's one way to evaluate advanced analytics.
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I mean if the team plays bad, and he’s playing most minutes at a key position then his +/- is going to be garbage. The efficiency was so bad overall that a couple made shots could make a huge relative difference
 
Brooky03 said:
There’s a strong likelihood we’re a tourney team next year.
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based on what? Half of the roster may be completely turned over. Too early to make predictions.
 
atlanticuse said:
Um, I don't think. It's part of the extended and advanced analytics. If we want to go all Hollinger, so be it.

Advanced statistics in basketball - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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Actually I never go by the plus minus . In the WNBA on the New York Liberty and before on Seattle.
Breanna Stewart would usually have a worse + ,- then the other starters.
The reason was the coach would leave her in longer with the subs, as steady influence.
 
baggerbob said:
Actually I never go by the plus minus . In the WNBA on the New York Liberty and before on Seattle.
Breanna Stewart would usually have a worse + ,- then the other starters.
The reason was the coach would leave her in longer with the subs, as steady influence.
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as soon as someone can draw the parallel between NCAA men's basketball and the WNBA, I'm game.

Then again I was at a NCAA Women's game with 167 people this weekend.

Women's Basketball vs Mary Washington on 2/3/2024 - Box Score - Salisbury University

The official box score of Women's Basketball vs Mary Washington on 2/3/2024
suseagulls.com suseagulls.com
 
OttoinGrotto said:
You're still overthinking this.

Because no time elapses, they're free points. If a guy shoots 1% on his free throws, it's still a great shot.

Nobody shoots 1% tho.

And you're thinking about a turnover incorrectly too, but no need to get into that.
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It does not matter that no time elapses, if you do not make at least one point you gain nothing and lose a possession, also the addition of the three point shot further negates any advantage even if you make one foul shot. All the Dean Smith nonsense came before the three point shot was enacted. The final analysis is if you do not make your foul shots your likekihood of losing is greater, end of story.
 
OttoinGrotto said:
Because no time elapses, they're free points. If a guy shoots 1% on his free throws, it's still a great shot.

Nobody shoots 1% tho.
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It's not just about time, you're also trading possession. The average possession is worth X points. I'm just going to pull some numbers out of my butt to illustrate the point.

For simplicity sake, let's say a shot is worth 1 point - we make 50% of twos or 33% of threes. Let's call the offensive rebounding percentage 33% on a regular shot and 15% on a free throw.

So on a regular shot, we're generating 1 point and a 33% chance at another possession. That possession is worth about 1 point, plus the chance of another, etc, etc. Let's just say every time a shot goes up, we end up generating like 1.5 points before losing possession.

So we need to shoot a high enough free throw percentage to overcome the fact that we're losing possession like 95% of the time (all made second free throws, 85% of missed second free throws). Ballpark, we probably need to shoot like 70% on free throws for them to be better than a regular shot.

Obviously there are other benefits to generating fouls on opponents, so you'd have to account for that too, but there's a reason Hack-a-Shaq is a strategy, and it's not that everyone doing it is stupid.
 
SUbear said:
It does not matter that no time elapses, if you do not make at least one point you gain nothing and lose a possession, also the addition of the three point shot further negates any advantage even if you make one foul shot. All the Dean Smith nonsense came before the three point shot was enacted. The final analysis is if you do not make your foul shots your likekihood of losing is greater, end of story.
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And I’d still rather have a clean basket because judah passed to the open guy for a dunk as opposed to trying to take on the world hunting fouls.
 
FrancoPizza said:
based on what? Half of the roster may be completely turned over. Too early to make predictions.
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Freeman.

Freeman is billed as a guy ready to contribute at a high level immediately. If he’s not that, then the projection changes, naturally. If he is that, he’s exactly the difference between a mediocre team and a good team. And that’s not asking him to be Melo or anything.

My post was regarding Mintz returning, so that would be Mintz and Starling running it back, more experienced, less injured, stronger, etc. If Red’s 3 guard vision comes to fruition, we appear to have some good options with Westry and Moore. Then, Freeman and Maliq. If JT, Bell, Benny leave, it’s not like that makes the team any worse. A guy at the end of the bench at OCC would give us the same production those guys have.
 
Nicknack said:
A few in this thread ask why Judah gets crap from fans. Those two posts are why many of us are a bit hard on him at times. Granted, he is a special talent and I for one, would be absolutely thrilled if he were to come back for another year. That said, I am disappointed this year in that he really hasn't improved much. I was expecting more.

Looking at his stats, his 2pt shooting is down a bit (45.2% versus 46.9% last year), his 3 pt shooting is up a little, but lately hasn't been trending well (33.3% versus 30.3% last year). He's averaging a couple more points a game and rebounding about one more a game. However, he's turning the ball over more this year and assists are the same. Overall, I'd say he's pretty much the same player as last year, which is still really good, but I was hoping for improvement.
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He doesn't have the right mentality. We're not going anywhere with him as our best player. For a month or so, he worked hard on making the players around him better, but he's a luxury player. He thinks he's a star, when he would be a good 3rd guard on a good team - part PG, part 2G with some team's 2nd unit.

His gramps was on here complaining about how he wishes he was playing on a better team. If Naheem and Hima didn't get hurt, and we had a pair of big rim protectors, this could still be a pretty good team, but he felt that long before those guys got hurt. That's a guy who is not committed to the team he currently supposed to be the "leader" of. He's not about winning games, or he would play a lot harder on defense.

He's not going to the NBA until / unless, he checks his ego at the door and actually starts playing like a guy trying to win games, not pose for the cameras or chirp at the ref every time he falls down driving to the hoop. And for chrissakes, you aren't playing ANYWHERE unless you start to play some defense. There's no room for luxury players, who only do one part of the game, when you are supposed to be the rock that they build on.
 
I dropped this post after BC before the Wake blowout.

A lot of posts all over the place. If he’s any good or useless or cares or doesn’t.

I think it’s safe to say Judah will be done with his college career in a month.

Whether he decides to play defense and we win a few more games in February who knows.
 
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