RF2044
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We're a little bit past the quarter pole, and twelve games into the season, we've got a less than impressive 8-4 record--very unusual, in Orange Nation. The team's offensive concept at the beginning of the year was non-existent, with rampant inexperience, players being required to step into more prominent roles, and a general lack of cohesion in terms of our offensive execution. We also started out the season not being able to hit the broad side of a barn, going 0-fer in a game from three and generally being the gang that couldn't shoot the ball straight. 4 games ago, this looked like a team that was primed for an NIT debacle year.
But where do things stand now?
One thing is for certain: this is a team unlike what we've had over the entire run of our program's recent resurgence, and it will be fun to see how the team continues to gel when they get into conference play. There's bound to be some speed bumps, but I now believe that we can overcome our limitations, be a team that nobody wants to play come March, and most importantly score some points--none of which seemed likely just a few short games ago
The future looks bright!
Let's Go Orange!!!
But where do things stand now?
- The offense is much improved: about three games into the season, it seemed unlikely to suggest that a team that seemed so anemic offensively might be able to turn things around. Kaleb Joseph was hemorrhaging the ball at a discouraging rate, nobody--including our ostensible deadeye shooter--could connect from deep, and our offensive sets looked completely discombobulated [more on all of these issues below]. Complicating matters was that we had many new players playing for the first time and / or stepping into increased roles, which led to too much forcing, too much one-on-one play, and not enough team basketball. Against Cal, we looked completely inept offensively. What changed over the last few games? For one thing, several players have settled into roles that were undefined at the beginning of the season. Some of the pressure has been taken off of Kaleb Joseph from a playmaking standpoint, and the lights have gone on for Cooney and Michael Gbinije. And to make matters even better...
- Three point shooting has really come on: let's face facts: this team needs Trevor Cooney to provide some production from deep to win most games. But a team can't get by on having only one shooter alone--especially not when that shooter has wild variance in his productivity. Early in the season, nobody was connecting from deep. Not Cooney, not Joseph, not Gbinije, and not Patterson / BJ [both of whom came in with reputations for being shooters]. I'll discuss what's changed for Cooney / Gbinije below, but suffice it to say, the team that seemed congenitally incapable of making a three point shot earlier in the year is now shooting the ball quite effectively. The difference? Better ball movement, better penetration for kick outs, and now a secondary shooter [Gbinije] has emerged to space the floor opposite Cooney.
- We have several players who are capable of creating their own shots: For a time this season, it seemed like Kaleb Joseph was going to be thoroughly overmatched. He was picking up his dribble as soon as he got defended on the perimeter, he wasn't doing much purposeful off of the bounce, and he had a propensity to commit unforced turnovers whenever he faced any on the ball pressure. Many of our halfcourt offensive sets never even had a chance to get initiated due to the bungled way those possessions started off. And it looked like more of the same at the beginning of the Louisiana Tech game, where an experienced team forced us into a plethora of turnovers that led to run outs / easy baskets for the opposition. But at halftime, JB made an adjustment: he basically gave Cooney and Gbinije the green light to handle the ball [note--this reminds me a lot of the wrinkle from the 96 championship game, where JB made the non-traditional adjustment of having Burgan handle the ball to help offset some UK pressure]. Cooney--who'd spent the entire season [and most of the previous season] primarily running around off of screens hoping to get a clean catch / look, suddenly had the ball in his hands. Perhaps most surprisingly to many, he was able to not only get into the lane effectively, but also to either score in the lane or pass. Between this newfound ability from Cooney, Joseph now being able to play off the ball, and Gbinije looking like the versatile offensive weapon many envisioned when he transferred here, we now have three players who can create off of the bounce. And that has unlocked a lot of things offensively for this team.
- Cooney has come to life: speaking of that Louisiana Tech game, it couldn't have been more important to Cooney's confidence--and I'm not overstating that. Instead of just being a catch-and-shoot, one dimensional player--he's now playing like a complete guard. He's handling the ball a lot, but more importantly he's doing good things with the ball--including passing and getting assists. He's shown that when he gets into the lane--either for a pull up mid-range jumper or taking it to the rack--that he can finish. Nobody has to respect the pump fake on the perimeter from a guy who never drives. With so many teams willing to commit to overplaying Cooney defensively last year and this year, his ability to blow past them off of the bounce is an important aspect of his game diversification--now he can make teams pay for overplaying him. And perhaps most importantly, instead of just running around and cranking the ball up every time he had an open look [even when he didn't necessarily have "good" looks], Cooney is now thriving having the ball in his hands more. He's more focused. He's more in the flow. He's playing like a complete guard. He doesn't "only" have to rely upon three pointers to get his points. And since he's more in the game flow, his three point shot is now beginning to drop. With the exception of the St. John's game, he's lighting it up in the last six games or so from three. He's not going to shoot 50% from three point range every game, nor does he have to. But we needed Cooney to be more than just a one-dimensional shooter for this team to maximize its potential--and he's starting to show that diversification now. Forget shooting guard, Cooney is a guard. Period. And the added dimension of the ball handling is really paying dividends for Kaleb Joseph. Speaking of which...
- Joseph is beginning to settle in: the games don't compare much, but early on it seemed like the frosh seasons might--much like Jason Hart in 96-97, Kaleb Joseph, touted as a dynamic ball-handler and talented scoring point, didn't seem to be able to do anything right. He wasn't doing a good job of initiating the team's half court offensive sets, he was turning the ball over like a BC guard trying to shave points, and his defense was poor. Hart wasn't ready that year, and neither did Joseph seem to be. But with the insertion of Michael Gbinije into the starting lineup and a more concerted emphasis on having Gbinije / Cooney handle the ball, Joseph has found his groove. A LOT of pressure has been taken off of him to be a "traditional" point guard who predominantly handle the ball. That has helped to not only unlock Silent G and Cooney, but also has enabled Kaleb to play a bit more off of the ball and not worry about orchestrating the offense. Instead, he's receiving the ball, and then using his talents to drive and dish. The Villanova game gave us a glimpse into Joseph's future as a dynamic lead guard. He's not there yet, but like Jason Hart--who was thrown to the wolves that freshman year and struggled, but went on to have a fine career--the future looks bright for Joseph.
- Gbinije starting: Silent G's insertion into the starting lineup has been a freaking godsend on many levels. First of all, it made his offensive come alive--and infused our offensively challenged lineup with a much needed shot in the arm of shooting / scoring. Second, Gbinije has provided that much needed second shooter to balance the floor and spread defenses out, preventing them from being able to clog the lane. Third, Gbinije is starting to show the promise that made him a McDs all american caliber recruit coming out of high school. His versatility has brought a different dimension to the offense that was lacking the first 7 - 8 games. And he isn't just a shooter--G has done great things off of the bounce, getting into the lane for pull up jumpers, taking it all the way to the rim, etc. I'll be the first to issue a mea culpa on Gbinije--I believed based upon what we saw last year / early this year that his scoring upside was limited to him being a Ryan Blackwell-esque complimentary scorer--say, 6-8 points, but not a focal point. Boy, was I wrong [mea culpa!!]. Perhaps most importantly, Boeheim has been able to capitalize on Gbinije's versatility and the experience gained backing up the PG spot last year to use the aforementioned wrinkle: letting Gbinije be the primary facilitator of the team's half court offense. And doing so has caused the team's offensive concept to click.
- The 3 was an enormous liability, but is now a strength: Gbinije's emergence has helped to rectify an enormous problem this team faced for the first bunch of games: we were getting virtually NO production from the small forward position. Little used sophomore Tyler Roberson has great promise, but no experience--and he struggled right out of the gate, showing a tendency to overthink things, and hence be a step slow in everything he tried to do. BJ Johnson showed that he could rebound, but can't seem to get the lid off of the basket. And even Gbinije sleep walked through a few games without being able to do anything. Roberson's abdominal strain injury forced JB to turn first to BJ Johnson, and eventually to Gbinije to start at the 3. And once he got comfortable, Gbinije's game has taken off. He's set / broken his career highs in scoring a couple of games, but he's also giving us scoring, three point shooting, and versatility on offense--all things we weren't getting from the 3 early on. Syracuse's offense has been so traditionally forward-driven that we simply couldn't afford to have ZERO production from the 3. Gbinije has not only stabilized that situation, he's also provided the team with a much-needed third scorer who can light it up any given night [along with Cooney / Rak]. And a team with a triumvirate of legitimate scorers surrounded by a couple of complimentary players can be an effective, dangerous team.
- Rak hasn't tailed off: instead, he's thrived. I don't expect him to average 17 and 9 the entire year, but you never know. His improved play is one of the most impressive late career player developments we've seen under Boeheim, considering he's a senior. With all due respect to Danny Schayes, Demetris Nichols, Lazarus Sims, and Rick Jackson, who all made similar senior year jumps, Rak's improved offensive play has been nothing short of highly impressive. We've lacked interior scoring for several seasons; the 2012 final four team went practically the entire year without having any inside scoring, until Keita suddenly began to provide a modicum of scoring [~6 ppg] in the BET / NCAAs, and suddenly the team took off. Having a legit inside presence is a terrific building block upon which to build an offensive concept. Maybe its the realization that with a big year, he could play for pay. Or maybe its just the recognition that this is his senior year / last go-around, but Rak has gone from a player who often drifted around not doing much to being a reliable scorer who is capable of punishing teams inside. And that development has been facilitated by...
- Miraculously, the team is feeding the post: Getting the ball inside has been a lost art on many SU teams, which haven't emphasized inside scoring. But with Rak's emergence, the team is making a concerted effort to get the ball inside, which is very nice to see. And Rak is delivering.
- McCullough is struggling now, but let's see how things play out: Recent posts have been justifiably critical of McCullough's performance of late, but the frosh has a ton of ability. Right now, he's struggling to figure things out, but I'm guessing that he will by February, and provide us with a nice compliment to Rak inside for the stretch run.
- The potential is there for this to be a solid rebounding team: Rak is posting impressive rebounding numbers. McCullough has the potential to be a formidable, above average rebounder alongside him. And perhaps most importantly, Gbinije has shown that unlike last year, he can be a more than adequate rebounder on the back line of the zone. We struggle when playing "undersized" 3's on the back end, but Gbinije has erased my concerns about that issue.
- We can handle the press: A couple of games ago, I was fearful about what would happen when we played the likes of Louisville. Joseph was a sieve with the ball, and we got away from JB's "system" for handling the press and showed too much improvisation--most of which resulted in turnovers. The last few games--albeit against not as good opponents--we are handling pressure defenses MUCH better. Having a trio of players who can confidently handle the ball not only enables us to not have to rely upon Joseph to be a one-man show against pressure defenses, but it enables us to adroitly get the ball over half court despite facing heavy pressure. I like what I'm seeing out there on this front.
- Trevor Roberson has settled down: Roberson, a highly touted prospect, looked like a deer in the headlights early on. He struggled as a starter, couldn't buy a basket, and forced seemingly every time he touched the ball. When he started to overthink things, he was a step slow on both offense and defense, and got pulled for his mistakes. But similarly to what I describe with Cooney above, the Lousiana Tech game was an absolute godsend for Roberson [who registered 16 points and 17 rebounds]. It is almost like he just needed to have a good game to settle down and just start playing. Now, he's comfortable coming off of the bench and is making positive contributions spelling either forward spot. His shot is beginning to drop, he's rebounding well, and he's looking much more comfortable offensively out there. I don't think it will all perfectly come together for Roberson this year, but he's going to be a key backup contributor this year, and be positioned to break out next year as a starter. And this year, his versatility in being able to play multiple positions is helping to mask a lack of frontcourt depth.
- Frosh will be frosh: over the first 12 games, McCullough alternated between looking solid and inconsistent, and Kaleb Joseph looked like the game was going too fast for him. Relying upon frosh to lead the way in a conference like the ACC is generally not a formula for success, but with other players stepping up [most notably, our experienced trio of Cooney / Rak / Gbinije], we're now in a position where we don't have to rely upon the two freshmen to drive our offensive play. The result has been that a LOT of the pressure has been released like a safety valve for the frosh. Joseph looks like a very solid fourth scoring option, and McCullough--when he rounds back into form--will give us a starting unit with all five players being capable of posting double figures. Which means...
- We have the weapons to exceed 65 points per game: last year's games were often painful, with the team struggling to score. Heck, the same was even true of the final four team in most games, where our overall anemic offensive play made it difficult for the team to keep up with teams who COULD score. And if we got behind--we were toast. Its tough to come back from big deficits when the team can't put the ball in the basket. And heading into this year, a lot of SU fans were justifiably concerned about where the points would come from, given the lack of returning proven scoring. This year's team is still a work in progress, but recent developments have demonstrated that this team has scoring potential, and could round into form as a dangerous offensive team by year's end. S0 much so that they might barely resemble the team that took the court initially at the beginning of the year.
- We can actually shoot the three: I stated this above, but it bears repeating: it is difficult to win games if you can't shoot the three with some reasonable level of consistency. And for a lengthy stretch of the first 12 games, it looked like this problem would be a major albatross hanging over the team's head all year long. I'm not going to pull the stats / data, but over the last six games we've shown that we can be a team that hits better than 35% from three, with multiple players [not just Cooney] being capable of connecting from deep. Things will get tougher in the ACC portion of the schedule, but we've gone from "can't" to "can" in fairly short order.
- The beginning portion of the ACC schedule sets up favorably: I want to be clear, this team has a very slim margin for error, sitting at 8-4. And we can't take any team lightly from here on out, or count any game as a guaranteed "W." But if we can somehow find a way to scrap out two road wins against VT / GT, then we're going to have a chance to go on a mini-run to start the ACC portion of the schedule. Can this team claw its way to 15-16 wins without dropping any more games? I believe that it can--and that will go a LONG way toward turning the rough early start around and making a run at the NCAA tournament.
- We're already road tested: For all of our struggles, we've actually played reasonably well on the road. Games like Michigan and Villanova ultimately didn't go our way, but we showed in both games that we can compete even at tough venues, and that will pay dividends down the road. Most importantly, it will help us get off to the quick start in conference play that we need to capitalize on a softer beginning portion of the ACC conference schedule. Most SU teams traditionally don't play true road games in the preseason portion of the schedule and aren't road tested at this point of the season, but this team is.
- Many of the issues are correctable: We're still turning the ball over too much. We absolutely have to do a better job taking care of the ball. But execution is correctable. Having players who aren't capable of scoring isn't correctable. And our issues fortunately seem to be more of the former instead of the latter.
- This team's best basketball is ahead of it: In our recent run of sustained success, our teams have been mostly finished products even early in the season. That's been true of every year since 2009. And while that's enable us to get off to quick starts, score impressive early wins, and win most of the invitation tournaments we've participated in, those teams haven't improved much in terms of the aggregate from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. Conversely, many other premier teams over that span of time have faced speed bumps early, but improved and peaked by the postseason. Other than 2012, that hasn't been the case for SU. I believe that even in spite of the tougher end of the ACC conference schedule, we have the building blocks in place for this to be a dangerous team at the end of the season, heading into post-season play. I could see us being a 6 or 7 seed that gets to the elite 8, knocking off some higher rated teams along the way if a few things continue to improve over the course of the season.
- We're turning the ball over too much: Recent teams have excelled at taking care of the ball. In our best seasons [especially 2012], we'd get other teams' best shots, and find ways to win precisely because we turned the ball over 7 or 8 times for the entire game, while the opposing team would turn it over 18 times--enabling us to claw out victories. This year, turnovers cost us at least two games that could and should have been wins [Michigan and Villanova]. How much we improve taking care of the ball will go a long way toward this year's team actualizing its full potential.
- Depth is an issue: After lots of tinkering, our starting five is now firmly established, and players are settling into their roles nicely. But the bench still is undefined. Patterson has the capability to provide defensive energy and a much-needed bench shooter. He's inconsistent, and needs more PT to get his sea legs. But JB has been going to him more in recent games, and he needs to continue to show that he can get the job done to help round out our backcourt rotation. BJ Johnson is another talented scorer has had had wild ups and downs. The team really needs him to be able to provide at least a few minutes of play to provide us with some additional frontcourt depth.
- Defensive lapses: Our calling card since 2010 has been the zone, and with the exception of last year our perimeter defense has been quite formidable. We're still making mistakes and having players be out of position too much up top. This is a correctable issue, and we simply have to do better. I think this can improve, as players like Joseph / Patterson gain experience.
- Backup center looms as a year-long problem: For all of the accolades I heaped upon Rak above, he's still committing dumb fouls, and that is going to bite us in some games this year. Roberson emerging gives us the capability of sliding McCullough into the pivot--but the Villanova game showed what can happen when he picks up quick fouls and has to sit for long stretches in either half. I have nightmares about playing @ Pitt, where they'll get a couple of bogus calls and saddle Rak with 2 fouls in the first 90 seconds of play. Obokoh doesn't seem ready this year, and Coleman now seems like a significant longshot to play this year. Which means that we need Rak to play smarter and avoid dumb fouls, because otherwise we're going to be disadvantaged inside on both ends of the floor.
One thing is for certain: this is a team unlike what we've had over the entire run of our program's recent resurgence, and it will be fun to see how the team continues to gel when they get into conference play. There's bound to be some speed bumps, but I now believe that we can overcome our limitations, be a team that nobody wants to play come March, and most importantly score some points--none of which seemed likely just a few short games ago
The future looks bright!
Let's Go Orange!!!
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