13 games left in regular season play...record to get in?

[SUOrangeSU]

11-7 (1-4 in conference)

Obviously we need to get some W's...from all the analysts that I've read/heard on tv, we have some good wins from non conference

going 9-9 would make us go to 19-12...is that enough?

I think we got to get Pitt when we play again and another ranked opponent.

 

[Forloveoforange]

I think you meant that that would make us 19-12.

 

[SUOrangeSU]

I think you meant that that would make us 19-12.

you are right..can't do kindergarten math right now LOL

 

[NineOneSeven]

We lose every game the rest of the way. Cooney plays over 40 mpg (three OT games that we lose due to FT's and giving up game-tying treys from 25 feet) and earns the nickname "sine wave" due to his incredible up and down performances, G breaks 5 rims on attempted throw downs, and Richardson's hair grows enough to make him look 7'8" ala Jerami Grant.

However, we win the ACC tournament behind a historic performance by our savior, Franklin Howard, who leads us into the tournament as a 13 seed, the first ever to win the NCAAT.

 

[Knicks411]

The home games are ND, Ga Tech, Va Tech, FSU, Pitt, and Nc State. Looking at Pomeroy, we'll probably be favored in all but the Pitt game, which will likely be close to pick em. I don't think 9-9 is happening, but if it does, you probably need all 6 of those.

Road games: Wake, UVA, Duke, BC, Lville, UNC, FSU. (Man thats a killer road slate, with Miami and Pitt, is it possible we got the 6 best teams in conf at their place?) UVA, Duke, Lville, and UNC; I'm kind of writing those off. Can you get 2 of 3 from FSU/BC/Wake? BC is pretty terrible, we can probably get that one, and I guess we'll know about Wake on Saturday.

UConn and A&M are probably tournament teams. Notre Dame and Pitt are as well. FSU might be? So basically if you go 9-9 you enter the ACC tournament 19-12 with 4 wins over tournament teams. I would think that at least puts you int he conversation? The Clemson loss could end up really hurting. My guess is we're looking at 7 or 8 wins

 

[pearl31]

The Clemson loss could end up really hurting.

Why? I mean, it was a painful loss considering how it felt like we essentially had it won. But they very well could be a tourney team, so our loss to them certainly won't be regarded as a "bad" loss.

 

[pearl31]

We lose every game the rest of the way. Cooney plays over 40 mpg (three OT games that we lose due to FT's and giving up game-tying treys from 25 feet) and earns the nickname "sine wave" due to his incredible up and down performances, G breaks 5 rims on attempted throw downs, and Richardson's hair grows enough to make him look 7'8" ala Jerami Grant.

However, we win the ACC tournament behind a historic performance by our savior, Franklin Howard, who leads us into the tournament as a 13 seed, the first ever to win the NCAAT.

On fire.

 

[Knicks411]

Why? I mean, it was a painful loss considering how it felt like we essentially had it won. But they very well could be a tourney team, so our loss to them certainly won't be regarded as a "bad" loss.

I could see us ending say 8-10 and losing a winnable game to a team like that who could be a tournament team could be the difference for us

 

[AZOrange]

Why? I mean, it was a painful loss considering how it felt like we essentially had it won. But they very well could be a tourney team, so our loss to them certainly won't be regarded as a "bad" loss.

I think the OP meant because it should have been a W...

 

[OrlandoCuse]

11-7 (1-4 in conference)

Obviously we need to get some W's...from all the analysts that I've read/heard on tv, we have some good wins from non conference

going 9-9 would make us go to 19-12...is that enough?

I think we got to get Pitt when we play again and another ranked opponent.

Not all wins are equal. For example, last night's win was really with 1/2 a win. At home vs. a really bad team.

A win at Dukc, UVA, or UNC - those would be worth 2 wins.

I think we need to get to 9+ "weighted wins" in our last 13 games (equates to 18 "weighted games"). Big hill to climb.

01-16 at Wake Forest worth 1.5 wins
01-18 at Duke worth 2 wins
01-23 at Virginia worth 2 wins
01-28 Notre Dame worth 1 win
01-30 Georgia Tech worth 1 win
02-02 Virginia Tech worth 1 win
02-11 Florida St. worth 1 win
02-14 at Boston Coll. worth 1 win
02-17 at Louisville worth 1.5 wins
02-20 Pittsburgh worth 1.5 wins
02-27 N.C. State worth 1 win
02-29 at N. Carolina worth 2 wins
03-05 at Florida St. worth 1.5 wins
Total = 18 weighted games

 

[Briancuse]

Have to beat Pitt, and steal a game on the road. It would also help if Uconn could get into the top 50.

 

[MorangeFan]

We lose every game the rest of the way. Cooney plays over 40 mpg (three OT games that we lose due to FT's and giving up game-tying treys from 25 feet) and earns the nickname "sine wave" due to his incredible up and down performances, G breaks 5 rims on attempted throw downs, and Richardson's hair grows enough to make him look 7'8" ala Jerami Grant.

However, we win the ACC tournament behind a historic performance by our savior, Franklin Howard, who leads us into the tournament as a 13 seed, the first ever to win the NCAAT.

Ill have some of that ish, pass the pipe

 

[upperdeck]

if we get to 9-9 and the committee really does review the non JB games we end up what 9-7 in league and 6/7 - 1 OC? cant remember them all.

 

[pearl31]

Have to beat Pitt, and steal a game on the road. It would also help if Uconn could get into the top 50.

Are you still going on about rpi? Look at KenPom, ucon is top 30

 

[Briancuse]

Are you still going on about rpi? Look at KenPom, ucon is top 30

I was going by realtimerpi.com, I didn't check out kenpom yet, thats good to hear.

 

[pearl31]

I was going by realtimerpi.com, I didn't check out kenpom yet, thats good to hear.

(of course they still suck tho )

 

[jdubs30]

10-8 in conference should do it ... so 9-4 the rest of the way...9-9 would cut it close (8-5)

 

[jncuse]

Why? I mean, it was a painful loss considering how it felt like we essentially had it won. But they very well could be a tourney team, so our loss to them certainly won't be regarded as a "bad" loss.

We could end up one win short. While not a bad team, it's a game you need to get at home.

A bubble team can't have too many bad losses. But it also can't go 0-3 against Wisconsin, At Georgetown, Clemson like we have. A normal bubble team would go 2-1 in those games, so we need to make up for in other ways.

None of the individual losses are "bad", but it is the 0-3 in those games that hurt... or the 2-7 so far this year in games that matter. (or 3-7 if we include Bonnie) 4-6 would be easier to dig out of then 3-7.

 

[Briancuse]

(of course they still suck tho )

Well tonight they lost to their bitter rival Tulsa.

 

[pearl31]

Well tonight they lost to their bitter rival Tulsa.

ucon is underachieving this year as bad as any team in the country Oh Lord

 

[jncuse]

I came up with last 4 in at 9-9 in my other thread. I think the Boeheim factor may help if we were square on the bubble (i.e break a near tie)

No probelms at 10-8 in my view.

I tend not to give too much value to the first game of the ACC tourney or any P5 tourney -- typically they are "nuisance" games. They don't help your resume (not top 100 teams) , and the only advantage of winning is you did not lose -- and typically there is one or two bubble teams that slip in those. The big game that can push you above is the second tourney game. So 1-1 typically keeps you square with the bubble.

 

[Delmar]

9-9 in conference, 2 wins in ACC tourney.
Or, 10-8 in conference, 1 win in ACC tourney.
Or, 1-17 in conference, 4 wins in ACC tourney.

 

[RandygoCuse]

I think we need to go 10-8 in conference. At 9-9, we need to win at least one tourney game.

 

[Nicknack]

I've thought from the start that 10 wins (10-8 record) is what we need. However, who we beat could definitely make a difference. We win at Duke or VA, then maybe a 9-9 record is the magic number. At this point, I'm hoping for a 9-9 record with at least one win in the ACC tourney.

 

[jncuse]

9-9 in conference, 2 wins in ACC tourney.
Or, 10-8 in conference, 1 win in ACC tourney.
Or, 1-17 in conference, 4 wins in ACC tourney.

1-17 and 5 wins.

I view your totals as the "just safe" totals. I think 9-9, with 1 tourney win, is sort of the 50/50 number right now.

Ultimately the strength of the bubble in general is determined by one main factor. How well do the top teams in OOC in an individual P6 conference correlate to the top teams in the regular season in that conference. The lower the correlation and the more the bubble shifts downwards.