15-18 WKU Tourney-Bound

[jncuse]

Not sure Garbs. In the past, when the field was 65, it was not always the worse teams. I believe the conferences get an extra share of the NCAA pie for that game, so that $$ wise conferences don't mind being in that game.

I work under the assumption that it will be the four worst. It wouldn't be fair if they always based it on who was closest to Dayton -- Dayton has had the Play in game forever.

 

[Marsh01]

Not sure Garbs. In the past, when the field was 65, it was not always the worse teams. I believe the conferences get an extra share of the NCAA pie for that game, so that $$ wise conferences don't mind being in that game.

I work under the assumption that it will be the four worst. It wouldn't be fair if they always based it on who was closest to Dayton -- Dayton has had the Play in game forever.

Last year was the first year of 68 teams so the 4 worst 16 seeds did end up playing each other.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Hey Marsh you seem to have a good handle on the potential 16 seed teams so let me run this by you. Is there a potential 16 seed out there including Ashville that in your mind could give SU some trouble? Let me be clear I am not worried about a 16 seed matchup but after Richmond theres that little 1% that wont let me just pencil it in.

 

[Marsh01]

Hey Marsh you seem to have a good handle on the potential 16 seed teams so let me run this by you. Is there a potential 16 seed out there including Ashville that in your mind could give SU some trouble? Let me be clear I am not worried about a 16 seed matchup but after Richmond theres that little 1% that wont let me just pencil it in.

No team will give us or any one seed a game unless we play just an atrocious game. Asheville is a decent team but they are so small (I did a scouting report and its somewhere in this thread) and they love to play up tempo that we would just wear them down. I mean they dont start a guy over 6'5".

I have watched Stonybrook and Vermont a few times and neither team is very good and we would roll both teams. You saw WKU tonight (if you watched the game). Not much there to see.

The SWAC and MEAC are basically glorified D2 athletes and we would destroy either of them. The only school that I havent seen much of is Pat Knights Lamar squad. Based on his comments thought they seem to be very undisciplined.

 

[JeremyCuse]

No team will give us or any one seed a game unless we play just an atrocious game. Asheville is a decent team but they are so small (I did a scouting report and its somewhere in this thread) and they love to play up tempo that we would just wear them down. I mean they dont start a guy over 6'5".

I have watched Stonybrook and Vermont a few times and neither team is very good and we would roll both teams. You aw WKU tonight (if you watched the game). Not much there to see.

The SWAC and MEAC are basically glorified D2 athletes and we would destroy either of them. The only school that I havent seen much of is Pat Knights Lamar squad. Based on his comments thought they seem to be very undisciplined.

Thanks for the response and I did see your scouting report on Ashville, great job really got afeel for that team now even though I saw them play like once maybe twice. As I was reading your Ashville write up actually thought the same thing you did team that doesnt shoot the three well, no big men, up tempo team sounds like a great matchup. Of course now that I said that we will probably play them and they will go nuts from three keeping it closer then it should be, lol.

 

[jncuse]

UNC Asheville may be sliding up to 15 seed.

For sure the following teams will be seeded lower
SWAC Champ
MEAC Champ
AEast Champ
Western Kentucky
Very likely the Southland champion would be worse.

One more upset in Patriot, Big West, NEC, could move UNC Asheville up.

 

[Marsh01]

Thanks for the response and I did see your scouting report on Ashville, great job really got afeel for that team now even though I saw them play like once maybe twice. As I was reading your Ashville write up actually thought the same thing you did team that doesnt shoot the three well, no big men, up tempo team sounds like a great matchup. Of course now that I said that we will probably play them and they will go nuts from three keeping it closer then it should be, lol.

probably

 

[Garbs]

I imagine the #1 overall does not face a play in because the committee will want to guarantee that the overall #1 plays the worst team no?

 

[Moontan]

I told you, I watch lot of basketball...

One can only wonder what Mrs. Marsh does during all of this alone time...

 

[Moontan]

15-18 is being generous. They were 11--18 entering the Sun Belt tournament. Nice start for a fill-in coach.

 

[Marsh01]

One can only wonder what Mrs. Marsh does during all of this alone time...

watches with me, reads her books, usually is in bed by 9:30.

 

[RandygoCuse]

They have a player whose name is pronounced "nanu nanu." I totally want to play this team.

 

[Marsh01]

One additional team there is a chance we play is LIU Brooklyn. I have finished the scouting report on them as well. They play Robert Morris tonight for an NCAA bid. I expect LIU to win but if RMU wins I will post a scouting report for them as well tomorrow.

LIU Brookyln Blackbirds (24-8) – Team Scouting Report

Conference: Northeast – 2012 Regular Season Champions (16-2)

RPI – 94
SOS – 289
Opponent SOS – 268
0-0 vs. Top 25 RPI
0-1 vs. Top 50 RPI
2-1 vs. Top 100 RPI

Notable Opponents:

Iona – (lost 100-84)
Penn St. – (lost 77-68)

Season Summary:

LIU Brooklyn won the Northeastern Conference regular season title for the second straight season. They edged out Wagner by one game (they also beat Wagner both times they played them this season) to win the regular season title.

They finished with 24 wins and 16 wins in conference. Their non conference schedule was not very strong. The two marquee games they played were Iona and Penn State and they were beaten by both teams. They play Robert Morris in the Northeastern Conference championship game with the winner advancing to the NCAA tournament. In their only meeting with Robert Morris they did lose to the Colonials.


Team Summary:

LIU Brooklyn returned many players from last year’s squad including 3 starters. Their top 3 scorers average in double figures and they have 2 players who average just under 10 ppg. This team can score with the best of anyone as they averaged 81.6 ppg this season which is 3rd in the nation. They do share the ball well and average 14.8 assists pregame which ranks 41st in the country. This is not a great shooting team from behind the arc as they only shoot it 36% from three point range. They do however have the ability to put the ball in the basket as they are 29th in the country in FG% shooting 47% from the floor. They are a very good FT shooting team and average 73% from the charity stripe.

Much like many small conference teams that we are seeing this year, LIU Brooklyn lacks the size in their starting 5. They do not start a player above 6’7”. Despite their lack of size they are a good rebounding team that averages 38.6 RPG which ranks them 21st in the country.

This is not a very good defensive team as they average giving up close to 78 PPG. They do average 6.3 steals per game and 3.2 blocks per game. They are very prone to turning the ball over and average 16.3 turnovers per contest.

Player Summary:

Their best player is junior forward Julian Boyd. He is the 2012 Northeaster conference player of the year. The 6’7” forward averages 17.4 ppg and 9.5 rpg. He does not shoot much from the perimeter but did shoot 18-44 from 3 point range this season. He does get to the line a lot and is a good FT shooter at 74% for the season.

Along side Boyd on the Blackbirds frontcourt is first team all conference player Jamal Olaswere. The junior 6’7” forward averages 17 ppg and 7.6 RPG. He is also not much of a perimeter player only making 11 three pointers this season. He also does get to the FT line quite a bit shooting almost 75% from the stripe. He is prone to foul trouble and averages 3.5 fouls per game and also turns the ball over a lot for a front court player at over 3 a game.

LIU’s third starter is 5’10” junior guard CJ Garner. He averages 12.3 ppg and dishes out 3.4 assists per game. Despite being a perimeter player he has only made 7 three point shots this season. He is another player who likes to get to the FT line and averages over 80% from the stripe.

The second of the 3 guard lineup that LIU uses is senior 6’1” Michael Culpo. He averages 9.5PPG and 3.2 assists pergame. He is one of their best perimeter shooters and has made 69 three pointers this season and shoots it at 38%.

Their last starter is sophomore 5’10” G Jason Brickman. He averages 9.5 PPG and 7.2 assists per game which ranks 5th in the nation. He also is a threat from behind the arc as he has made 51 three pointers this season and averages 41% from behind the arc. Much like his teammates he is also a good FT shooter and shoots it at 81%. He is prone to turning the ball over as he averages almost 4 TO per contest.

The Blackbirds predominately play 3 people off of their bench. The first is junior 6’7” F Kenny Onyechi. He averages 5.4 PPG and 3.3 RPG. The next is junior 6’1” G Brandon Thompson who averages 4.5 PPG and 2.5 RPG. Lastly is senior 6’7” forward Arnold Mayorga who averages 2.8 PPG and 1.9 RPG.


Final Summary:

LIU Brooklyn is a middle of the road mid major team that has some experience in the NCAA tournament. They were the 15 seed last season and lost to 2 seed North Carolina 102-87. They were able to keep the game close due to the fact that UNC turned the ball over 17 times and shot a paltry 3-17 from behind the arc.

This team does like to score and run and will not play a slow down style game. They do lack size on the frontcourt but do a decent job rebounding the basketball. They do not rely on the three point shot as much as a typical 16 seed would have to although they did make 11 three pointers in their first round victory over Sacred Heart in their conference tournament. The only shot 4-19 during their semi-final victory over Quinnipiac. This Achilles heel of this team is turning the ball over and this is something that will rear its ugly head when playing a top seed in the NCAA tournament.

Although playing in last year’s NCAA tournament will certainly help this team should they get in I do not see them being able to compete with a #1 seed unless they can limit the turnovers and shoot it very well from behind the arc. They will certainly score points but they will also give up a ton of points and I do not believe that they will be able to outscore one of the top seeds in the tournament.

 

[Marsh01]

I broke down the 16 seeds with one of the old posters on this board (GothamCuse) and here is what we came up with after last nights games:

Kansas will get the Southland winner which is UT Arlington or Lamar. Syracuse will play UNC Asheville. Kentucky should get one of the play in game winners which is probably the SWAC champ (Miss Valley St.) vs the winner of Stonybrook/Vermont. Carolina will then get the other play-in game winner (winner of Western Kentucky vs. MEAC champ - Savannah St). Jerry Palm switched his bracket this morning. He had SU vs. UNC Asheville yesterday. Now he has SU vs. LIU-Brooklyn, while Asheville is a 15. I don’t see that happening. If anything, UT Arlington would get kicked up to the 15, not Asheville. Still, the NEC bears watching to see if LIU wins. If Bob Morris wins, it’s moot. The NCAA cannot place them in Pittsburgh against us. The NCAA Bracketing Principles document says that they can’t place a top 5 seed in an adverse home court situation. If we were a 6 and Bob Morris was an 11 it would be ok, but not otherwise. FYI, that’s why on some of these brackets you see 10 and 11 seeds playing close to home. They can because their 6 and 7 opponents are not protected.

 

[jncuse]

I imagine the #1 overall does not face a play in because the committee will want to guarantee that the overall #1 plays the worst team no?

I think it comes down to fit for the bracket and nothing else really. But the worst team should be in the play in.

Marsh is also right in that if there is only one 16/16 matchup on Tuesday, it would be Kentucky that plays them since Louisville is closer to Dayton. It doesn't matter who the number one overall seed is.

 

[MGP]

If we ever played Lamar they'd have to delay tip-off unitl the reefer smoke haze cleared from the arena

 

[jncuse]

I broke down the 16 seeds with one of the old posters on this board (GothamCuse) and here is what we came up with after last nights games:

Kansas will get the Southland winner which is UT Arlington or Lamar. Syracuse will play UNC Asheville. Kentucky should get one of the play in game winners which is probably the SWAC champ (Miss Valley St.) vs the winner of Stonybrook/Vermont. Carolina will then get the other play-in game winner (winner of Western Kentucky vs. MEAC champ - Savannah St). Jerry Palm switched his bracket this morning. He had SU vs. UNC Asheville yesterday. Now he has SU vs. LIU-Brooklyn, while Asheville is a 15. I don’t see that happening. If anything, UT Arlington would get kicked up to the 15, not Asheville. Still, the NEC bears watching to see if LIU wins. If Bob Morris wins, it’s moot. The NCAA cannot place them in Pittsburgh against us. The NCAA Bracketing Principles document says that they can’t place a top 5 seed in an adverse home court situation. If we were a 6 and Bob Morris was an 11 it would be ok, but not otherwise. FYI, that’s why on some of these brackets you see 10 and 11 seeds playing close to home. They can because their 6 and 7 opponents are not protected.

I respectfully disagree with the premise of trying to build the one line without first considering the 3/4 line. The 3/4 pods are the starting point because of the 4's all being in Omaha or Alberquerque. Teams in those seeds are also harder to bracket for because they are typically all from conferences with multiple teams -- the 16 seed teams are always easy to move around without breaking bracket rules. The 16/16 split is neither a rule or preference from what I understand (the fact that it happened last year - well naturally its going to be a 50% chance). But if it is, I stand corrected, and your analysis is bang on. UK will get the play in, even if they are seeded lower, merely because they are playing closer to Dayton. I do know the committee chair noted that reducing travel for play in's is an absolute priority this year.

The only 4 seed near Dayton is likely going to be Nashville (two other four seeds will be in Portland, one will be in Alberquerque)

So Nashville on Friday will certainly get a 5 - 12/12 matchup.

That means there will be play in for an 11 seed, in either Louisville, Columbus or Nashville. That will come down to fit. They probably prefer to make it in Lousisville, so they can split up the 16/16 games, but at the same time when you consider conference bracketing rules, they may have no choice but to put it in Columbus or Nashville.

And if they have to put in Columbus or Nashville, then the 11/11 and 12/12 play in games are on Wednesday, and both 16/16 games are on Tuesday.

And in that scenario Syracuse would get a play in game.

**** BTW, TV may mandate only one 16/16 game per night as well, so it could be a rule.

**** I also have no life for posting so much on this point.

 

[Marsh01]

I respectfully disagree with the premise of trying to build the one line without first considering the 3/4 line. The 3/4 pods are the starting point because of the 4's all being in Omaha or Alberquerque. Teams in those seeds are also harder to bracket for because they are typically all from conferences with multiple teams -- the 16 seed teams are always easy to move around without breaking bracket rules. The 16/16 split is neither a rule or preference from what I understand (the fact that it happened last year - well naturally its going to be a 50% chance). But if it is, I stand corrected, and your analysis is bang on. UK will get the play in, even if they are seeded lower, merely because they are playing closer to Dayton. I do know the committee chair noted that reducing travel for play in's is an absolute priority this year.

The only 4 seed near Dayton is likely going to be Nashville (two other four seeds will be in Portland, one will be in Alberquerque)

So Nashville on Friday will certainly get a 5 - 12/12 matchup.

That means there will be play in for an 11 seed, in either Louisville, Columbus or Nashville. That will come down to fit. They probably prefer to make it in Lousisville, so they can split up the 16/16 games, but at the same time when you consider conference bracketing rules, they may have no choice but to put it in Columbus or Nashville.

And if they have to put in Columbus or Nashville, then the 11/11 and 12/12 play in games are on Wednesday, and both 16/16 games are on Tuesday.

And in that scenario Syracuse would get a play in game.

**** BTW, TV may mandate only one 16/16 game per night as well, so it could be a rule.

Certainly a possibility. I am pretty confident that they will not put 2 16/16 teams on the same night. I think they way they did it last year is the way they are going to do it this year with one on Tuesday and one on Wednesday and that is what the premise of the breakdown was based on. Now if that changes and both 16/16 matchups are on the same night then all bets are off.

 

[Marsh01]

**** BTW, TV may mandate only one 16/16 game per night as well, so it could be a rule.

**** I also have no life for posting so much on this point.

Lol, I dont either...

They will probably put the 16/16 games on at 6:30 like they did last year and keep the more marquee games in prime time at 9:00. I dont see those games given the better TV slot.