16-4 going into game at unc

[cuseattle]

I am all in!

 

[Dave85]

We may slip into the bottom half of the top25 if we were 16-4 headed into UNC but there are no real impressive wins to catch the voters attention there. It would be more a case of winning games while ranked teams lost them. Had we pulled off the Nova game we might be ranked right now that's how muddled college bball is after the top 8 or so teams.

Every basketball game I've ever coached if our team wins nobody complains about the referees. Every single game my team lost my players and parents complain about the referees. It's really funny. I think this is a universal quality about basketball games.

 

[Dave85]

Louisville just hasn't passed the eye test for me.

You need to be on your 4th or 5th beer. Oh, I thought we were talking about girls.

 

[Orangezoo]

Based on the fact we are playing better overall basketball 15-5 or 16-4 is very likely. The things that were the difference between 9-4 and 12-1 have improved significantly. Teams now have 3 guys to tune into every game. We just need others to step up and make enough plays and we should be able to get a nice winning streak rolling. 8-0 then 5-5 or 4-6 should get us a bid. 3-7 even if we get to 16-4 and win a game or two in the acc t. The way we are playing we have a good shot at beating some ranked squads in the league. Get a couple of those and hold serve enough and we are dancing.

 

[rhcuse]

13 & 7, we ain't dancin' this season

Cheers and Happy New Year

 

[hoopsupstate]

My biggest fear is starting 0-2. Winning on the road in any conference is not easy to do. Everyone thinks the first two games are gimmies. Didn't we lose at home to GT last year? If Christmas gets into any foul trouble in any game, we will be hard pressed to win that game. He's dominating right now and Cooney and Gbinije are playing well. If they don't play well, I don't think we can win, especially on the road. SU has very little room for error.

 

[two3zone]

My biggest fear is starting 0-2. Winning on the road in any conference is not easy to do. Everyone thinks the first two games are gimmies. Didn't we lose at home to GT last year? If Christmas gets into any foul trouble in any game, we will be hard pressed to win that game. He's dominating right now and Cooney and Gbinije are playing well. If they don't play well, I don't think we can win, especially on the road. SU has very little room for error.

That is my thinking as well. As long as G, Cooney, Rak, and Joseph are playing like they've been playing, we can run through this stretch without a loss. Problem is, if ONE of those wheels fall off it's most likely a L.

Rak scares me the most with foul trouble, you just don't know what a referee is going to do, he might only have games where he can play 20 minutes.

Cooney is a three point shooter, he isn't going to shoot 4-10 from out there every game, there are going to be 2-12 games, it happens, it's not his fault. Happens to everybody, ask the living three point legend on the bench next to him.

G, absolutely love what he's doing, knew he was capable of it and glad to see all the work he's put in for the past 3+ years is paying off, but again, it's been a few games, against one solid team and then cupcakes. I don't know how consistent of a showing this will be for G but with were we stand right now we need it to be to get anywhere. I reverts back, doesn't bode well for us.

I doubt Joseph has 8tos in a game again in his career here and while we did pull out the W, it was a game against La Tech. He has a game even 75% against a decent team we lose. Rak, Roberson, and Cooney all had great games that game as well.

 

[Orangezoo]

That is my thinking as well. As long as G, Cooney, Rak, and Joseph are playing like they've been playing, we can run through this stretch without a loss. Problem is, if ONE of those wheels fall off it's most likely a L.

Rak scares me the most with foul trouble, you just don't know what a referee is going to do, he might only have games where he can play 20 minutes.

Cooney is a three point shooter, he isn't going to shoot 4-10 from out there every game, there are going to be 2-12 games, it happens, it's not his fault. Happens to everybody, ask the living three point legend on the bench next to him.

G, absolutely love what he's doing, knew he was capable of it and glad to see all the work he's put in for the past 3+ years is paying off, but again, it's been a few games, against one solid team and then cupcakes. I don't know how consistent of a showing this will be for G but with were we stand right now we need it to be to get anywhere. I reverts back, doesn't bode well for us.

I doubt Joseph has 8tos in a game again in his career here and while we did pull out the W, it was a game against La Tech. He has a game even 75% against a decent team we lose. Rak, Roberson, and Cooney all had great games that game as well.

The cornell game is useless except for one thing. In that game we shot horribly and yet cooney had a decent stat line shooting. The 2-12s might still occur but there wont be many. He is looking to attack a lot more and using that to balance his game out. If he can get 12 inside the arc consistently then the 2-12 games will be more like 2-6 or 1-5. Same with mike g. Smarter shots/attacking the boards etc will help improve efficiency and eliminate wasted possessions. Those things coupled with bad turnovers are what did us in. Otherwise we can be competitive with anyone.

 

[Knicks411]

I said this after Nova. I agree. We will be favored in 8 out of our first 9. UNC isn't great either. We can beat them. They lost to Iowa at home.

8 of the first 9, and if you look at Pomeroy, we're pretty close to a tossup @Pitt and then favored @ BC.
The other side of this is UNC is probably the only team in that group who is a tournament team. Maybe Pitt or Miami, I guess? But we could rack up a lot of wins but nothing of any real significance.

 

[Knicks411]

last year's team also squeaked out alot of close wins against pretty bad teams during that 25-0 run. if they lost a couple of those then we're probably not saying last year's team is definitely better. we were losing to miami both games midway 2nd half. at pitt and nc state wins we pulled out of our ass. first bc game we were losing in 2nd half. pitt at home we were losing late 2nd half. its not like that team was blowing everyone out during the 25-0 run.

That's true, but at the same time, after the NC state game to get to 25-0, we were 2nd in Ken Pom, which is based entirely on MOV and opponent strength. So we may have been lucky to still be 25-0 at that point, but we still had been one of the best teams in the country up to that point. This year? Not so much

 

[Phillymoose]

After Jan 1st last year, every game was close. Any margin of victory (if there were any) came in the final minutes. We mistook a bit of how we played in the final 4 minutes of those games for prowess vs. luck and it caught up with us down the stretch as the basketball gods evened the score.

That said, we knew (for better or worse) that every game would be close. We weren't ever going to get blown out (I guess UVA was an exception), but that we were never going to be comfortable either.

As this team has improved, I am optimistic that we can get back to hammering at least some of our foes - and that will appease both the basketball gods and our blood pressure as fans. It makes it a bit easier to watch and enjoy.

I have seen enough to be optimistic and throw caution to the wind.

 

[007]

My biggest fear is starting 0-2. Winning on the road in any conference is not easy to do. Everyone thinks the first two games are gimmies. Didn't we lose at home to GT last year? If Christmas gets into any foul trouble in any game, we will be hard pressed to win that game. He's dominating right now and Cooney and Gbinije are playing well. If they don't play well, I don't think we can win, especially on the road. SU has very little room for error.

Va tech is terrible. They have losses to Radford and Appalachian St.

But i'm with you, if Rak gets in foul trouble and we shoot less than about 42% from 2s, we could start 0-1 in ACC. Even if we play well, with Buzz Williams as the HC, this could be a much closer game than people think.

 

[Knicks411]

I'm just gonna keep posting; looking at the schedule, and not having done a lot of looking at bracketology, I get the feeling that the really solid NCAA tournament teams in the league (let's set us aside) are: Duke, Lville, UVA, UNC, ND (no real order there). The first 4 are all in the KP top 10, and ND is 18th. We have 6 games against that group, home and home with Duke, Lville and UVA at home, and UNC and ND on the road. Can we win 2 of those 6? The other tossup type games we have are Pitt for two, Miami at home, and @NC State. The other games we should be pretty solid favorites, obviously doesn't mean we'll win them all, you will probably drop one you don't expect. Hopefully one if you're lucky. But 2 out of 6 from the first group, maybe split 2 out of 4 from the second group, and then 7 out of 8 from the other group of solid favorites (@ Va Tech, @ Ga Tech, FSU, Wake, Clemson, BC, Va Tech, @BC). That's 11-7. 2 of 6 from the elite group might be tough, but we have 3 of them at home. I think it's in play.

 

[pearl31]

the worst ACC team we play will be much better than anyone we have beat (outside of MAYBE Iowa).

Bunk

 

[007]

After Jan 1st last year, every game was close. Any margin of victory (if there were any) came in the final minutes. We mistook a bit of how we played in the final 4 minutes of those games for prowess vs. luck and it caught up with us down the stretch as the basketball gods evened the score.

That said, we knew (for better or worse) that every game would be close. We weren't ever going to get blown out (I guess UVA was an exception), but that we were never going to be comfortable either.

As this team has improved, I am optimistic that we can get back to hammering at least some of our foes - and that will appease both the basketball gods and our blood pressure as fans. It makes it a bit easier to watch and enjoy.

I have seen enough to be optimistic and throw caution to the wind.

There is no doubt the O has looked better during the L Tech, Nova, Colagte, LBS, Cornell run...

But, I have a very hard time reconciling that improvement against the very real fact that we just scored 61 points against a below .500 Ivy. There has been a lot of smoke this year to suggest that the ACC season is more likely to be a titanic struggle rather than an unbeaten run to UNC.

 

[Dave85]

There is no doubt the O has looked better during the L Tech, Nova, Colagte, LBS, Cornell run...

But, I have a very hard time reconciling that improvement against the very real fact that we just scored 61 points against a below .500 Ivy. There has been a lot of smoke this year to suggest that the ACC season is more likely to be a titanic struggle rather than an unbeaten run to UNC.

Cornell game on News Year's Eve has some distraction. They played better on offense in the second half. I think we will do well in conference play. My hope for this team is just to make it the big dance. If we lose two games we should not have lost and do not win any games we are not supposed to win this will clearly be a bubble team. We have to be perfect against teams we are suppose to beat from here on out. And we have to upset at least one top 20 ranked team.

 

[two3zone]

Bunk

Who then?

 

[two3zone]

I'm just gonna keep posting; looking at the schedule, and not having done a lot of looking at bracketology, I get the feeling that the really solid NCAA tournament teams in the league (let's set us aside) are: Duke, Lville, UVA, UNC, ND (no real order there). The first 4 are all in the KP top 10, and ND is 18th. We have 6 games against that group, home and home with Duke, Lville and UVA at home, and UNC and ND on the road. Can we win 2 of those 6? The other tossup type games we have are Pitt for two, Miami at home, and @NC State. The other games we should be pretty solid favorites, obviously doesn't mean we'll win them all, you will probably drop one you don't expect. Hopefully one if you're lucky. But 2 out of 6 from the first group, maybe split 2 out of 4 from the second group, and then 7 out of 8 from the other group of solid favorites (@ Va Tech, @ Ga Tech, FSU, Wake, Clemson, BC, Va Tech, @BC). That's 11-7. 2 of 6 from the elite group might be tough, but we have 3 of them at home. I think it's in play.

I could see the 2 out of the first group if it wasn't for the home/away.

I can see us beating UNC, but not at UNC, exact same with ND.

Both places are difficult to play at, even when you're good.

I don't mean to sound like a downer but I really don't believe this team is good enough to take down Duke, Lville, or/and UVA.

 

[007]

Cornell game on News Year's Eve has some distraction. They played better on offense in the second half. I think we will do well in conference play. My hope for this team is just to make it the big dance. If we lose two games we should not have lost and do not win any games we are not supposed to win this will clearly be a bubble team. We have to be perfect against teams we are suppose to beat from here on out. And we have to upset at least one top 20 ranked team.

It doesn't mean much, but Jerry Palm doesn't even include us in the last 4 out the last time I looked.

Many here don't want to hear this, but I think we have some work to do to even play our way on the bubble at this point. The good news is, there is a lot of basketball left to be played.

 

[two3zone]

Cornell game on News Year's Eve has some distraction. They played better on offense in the second half. I think we will do well in conference play. My hope for this team is just to make it the big dance. If we lose two games we should not have lost and do not win any games we are not supposed to win this will clearly be a bubble team. We have to be perfect against teams we are suppose to beat from here on out. And we have to upset at least one top 20 ranked team.

If an entire D1 team is distracted because of New Years game against Cornell we have even bigger problems than I thought.

 

[Knicks411]

I could see the 2 out of the first group if it wasn't for the home/away.

I can see us beating UNC, but not at UNC, exact same with ND.

Both places are difficult to play at, even when you're good.

I don't mean to sound like a downer but I really don't believe this team is good enough to take down Duke, Lville, or/and UVA.

I think we can win 1 of the 3 home games, Duke/UVA/Lville. If you just add up the 3 win probabilities Ken Pom has for those games, it .89 expected wins, for whatever that's worth. So that doesn't totally help my argument.

I'm just looking at the schedule and trying to figure out where the wins over tournament teams are coming from. Iowa has wins @Ohio State and @UNC, so that's a win that's going to look good in March. Probably. But I get what you're saying; I might rather trade a home Virginia game for a home UNC or home ND game; we'd have a much better chance of winning that one and we simply need to stack up some wins against teams that make the dance. We could conceivably win 10 games in the league and have no league wins against tourny teams. I think we need to root for Pitt and/or Miami to become more of a solid tournament team; we have 3 games against them, 2 of them at home.

That Nova game is just a killer. They are probably going to win their league and a be a top 2 or 3 seed; even with the St. Johns and Michigan losses if we could pair a neutral site win over Iowa with a win @ Nova, that could have gone a long way.

 

[longtimefan]

If an entire D1 team is distracted because of New Years game against Cornell we have even bigger problems than I thought.

Based on your own logic--that if any of our key 4 have a bad game, we lose (see #57 above)--the entire team does not need to be distracted.

 

[jncuse]

12-8: 5%
13-7 : 15%
14-6 - 40%
15-5 - 25%
16-4 - 15%

 

[two3zone]

Based on your own logic--that if any of our key 4 have a bad game, we lose (see #57 above)--the entire team does not need to be distracted.

If we're making excuses on why we played such poor offense against Cornell in the first half and we're using "it's New Year's Eve" it defies logic to me.

And let me add to post #57, it's not if just one of them have a bad game, it just makes it that more difficult to overcome. I consider Rak a superstar at this point. If he misses a lot of a game to foul trouble, I think it results in a loss. I don't think it's crazy.

I also don't think it's crazy with what I said in my post, look at the numbers on our losses and questionable game a as well. We win when we have multiple guys playing good or better. It's not crazy.

 

[longtimefan]

If we're making excuses on why we played such poor offense against Cornell in the first half and we're using "it's New Year's Eve" it defies logic to me.

And let me add to post #57, it's not if just one of them have a bad game, it just makes it that more difficult to overcome. I consider Rak a superstar at this point. If he misses a lot of a game to foul trouble, I think it results in a loss. I don't think it's crazy.

I also don't think it's crazy with what I said in my post, look at the numbers on our losses and questionable game a as well. We win when we have multiple guys playing good or better. It's not crazy.

I'm only saying that you're not following your own logic, which would be that if any of the key players--not the whole team--has an off-day, we are in trouble. So maybe one or two were not playing well, we play badly vs. Cornell. I don't necessarily subscribe to that. I don't know if it was New Year's Eve, or a bad meal, or missing a nap. Just that, according to you, the whole team need not have a problem to put us in jeopardy.