16-4 going into game at unc

[two3zone]

I'm only saying that you're not following your own logic, which would be that if any of the key players--not the whole team--has an off-day, we are in trouble. So maybe one or two were not playing well, we play badly vs. Cornell. I don't necessarily subscribe to that. I don't know if it was New Year's Eve, or a bad meal, or missing a nap. Just that, according to you, the whole team need not have a problem to put us in jeopardy.

I was mainly speaking about ACC teams and the schedule coming up. If all 5 of our starters were out against Cornell I'd still expect to best them by 10.

You think we beat ND with Kaleb Joseph turning the ball over 8 times? What about Miami?

Maybe not all 4 are guys are key to this, you can probably take G out of that mix. But this team really does need to fire from all cylinders for a W, I've think we've shown that as out only moderately good victory was a 3 point win over Iowa.

 

[Cusefan0307]

If we're making excuses on why we played such poor offense against Cornell in the first half and we're using "it's New Year's Eve" it defies logic to me.

And let me add to post #57, it's not if just one of them have a bad game, it just makes it that more difficult to overcome. I consider Rak a superstar at this point. If he misses a lot of a game to foul trouble, I think it results in a loss. I don't think it's crazy.

I also don't think it's crazy with what I said in my post, look at the numbers on our losses and questionable game a as well. We win when we have multiple guys playing good or better. It's not crazy.

We really didn't play that bad on offense against Cornell. It was a lot of missed shots at the beginning with some bad turnovers, but we still averaged 1.2 points per possession. The game was slow paced and that's the reason we really only scored 61 points.

 

[jncuse]

Who then?

Virginia Tech is a terrible team - Ken Pom 181.

 

[Knicks411]

We really didn't play that bad on offense against Cornell. It was a lot of missed shots at the beginning with some bad turnovers, but we still averaged 1.2 points per possession. The game was slow paced and that's the reason we really only scored 61 points.

Pomeroy has the game at 63 possessions, pretty slow, but not slow enough to where we got 1.2 points per possession. You'd need something like a 50 possession game for that, I think we had a few close to that last year.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Pomeroy has the game at 63 possessions, pretty slow, but not slow enough to where we got 1.2 points per possession. You'd need something like a 50 possession game for that, I think we had a few close to that last year.

My bad I should of said 1.2 points per shot. 14 turnovers against Cornell is too much.

 

[Dave85]

If an entire D1 team is distracted because of New Years game against Cornell we have even bigger problems than I thought.

I don't agree with you opinion on this. The team played fine.

 

[jordoo]

Every basketball game I've ever coached if our team wins nobody complains about the referees. Every single game my team lost my players and parents complain about the referees. It's really funny. I think this is a universal quality about basketball games.

I'm unsure what that has to do with my original post although I certainly concede your point while also maintaining that the refs screwed us @ Nova just look at the tape and the foul numbers.

 

[jordoo]

That's true, but at the same time, after the NC state game to get to 25-0, we were 2nd in Ken Pom, which is based entirely on MOV and opponent strength. So we may have been lucky to still be 25-0 at that point, but we still had been one of the best teams in the country up to that point. This year? Not so much

Our defense was very strong last year and in the first 20 or so games our offense rated well but with a slow pace. That combined with winning always rates well in POM's system. When teams figured out how to better defend us and Cooney fell into that prolonged slump the offensive was under tremendous pressure especially with our slow pace.

 

[TBCuse11]

My biggest fear is starting 0-2. Winning on the road in any conference is not easy to do. Everyone thinks the first two games are gimmies. Didn't we lose at home to GT last year? If Christmas gets into any foul trouble in any game, we will be hard pressed to win that game. He's dominating right now and Cooney and Gbinije are playing well. If they don't play well, I don't think we can win, especially on the road. SU has very little room for error.

if we start o-2 in league, the NIT is out best case scenario. I LOVE the optimism on here, but we will be very lucky to win 3 of our last 10 games.

 

[TBCuse11]

I think we can win 1 of the 3 home games, Duke/UVA/Lville. If you just add up the 3 win probabilities Ken Pom has for those games, it .89 expected wins, for whatever that's worth. So that doesn't totally help my argument.

I'm just looking at the schedule and trying to figure out where the wins over tournament teams are coming from. Iowa has wins @Ohio State and @UNC, so that's a win that's going to look good in March. Probably. But I get what you're saying; I might rather trade a home Virginia game for a home UNC or home ND game; we'd have a much better chance of winning that one and we simply need to stack up some wins against teams that make the dance. We could conceivably win 10 games in the league and have no league wins against tourny teams. I think we need to root for Pitt and/or Miami to become more of a solid tournament team; we have 3 games against them, 2 of them at home.

That Nova game is just a killer. They are probably going to win their league and a be a top 2 or 3 seed; even with the St. Johns and Michigan losses if we could pair a neutral site win over Iowa with a win @ Nova, that could have gone a long way.

agree, if we miss the tourney... we can look squarely at the Nova loss.

 

[pearl31]

we will be very lucky to win 3 of our last 10 games.

Very lucky, huh? A last 10 that includes BC, VT, Pitt x2, NC st. And we'll be very lucky to win 3 of those?

 

[CorduroyG]

I'm always confident we're gonna win our home games. I don't look at Louisville duke and UVA at the dome and think we'll be lucky to win 1 of them. I think those will be very tough games for Louisville duke and UVA to win. I fully expect us to be in position in the 2nd half to win all 3, and right now I say we beat lville and UVA and lose to duke.

 

[Knicks411]

I'm always confident we're gonna win our home games. I don't look at Louisville duke and UVA at the dome and think we'll be lucky to win 1 of them. I think those will be very tough games for Louisville duke and UVA to win. I fully expect us to be in position in the 2nd half to win all 3, and right now I say we beat lville and UVA and lose to duke.

I get that, I think probably the most likely scenario is that we win 1 of the 3 games, with I guess 0 being a little more likely than 2. So I wouldn't say we'd be lucky to go 1-2.

If we can get Lville and UVA, we should be in pretty good position to go dancing, and realistically, probably a single digit seed as well.

 

[Henny & Coke]

Very lucky, huh? A last 10 that includes BC, VT, Pitt x2, NC st. And we'll be very lucky to win 3 of those?

Oh come on, you know it's true - stop acting as if we wouldn't be extremely lucky to win 3 of our last 10 basketball games.

Fact of the matter is that it did happen once in the past 13+ seasons (went on a 3-7 stretch in 08-09; that's the worst 10 game period going back past 01-02)...so why would you ever give SU the benefit of the doubt, based on that kind of crappy track record?

 

[syr14]

I know people on here are tempering their expectations of this team a bit, but we are playing noticeably better of late. I am expecting this team to get into a groove to start the ACC sched. A lot of talk about how we are screwed if one of our big contributors has a bad game. I don't think enough credit is being given to our Defense which has been improving along with our overall play.

VTech is garbage and they don't have much home court advantage with students on break. Just lost by 30 to WV Should win comfortably there.

 

[Knicks411]

Using the KP projections, we're expected to win about 4.5 of the final 10, fwiw.

 

[TBCuse11]

Very lucky, huh? A last 10 that includes BC, VT, Pitt x2, NC st. And we'll be very lucky to win 3 of those?

VERY lucky might be a stretch. but lucky? yeah. if you take off the orange colored glasses, you can see we arent clearly better than any of those teams. Probably not even equal.

 

[TBCuse11]

I know people on here are tempering their expectations of this team a bit, but we are playing noticeably better of late. I am expecting this team to get into a groove to start the ACC sched. A lot of talk about how we are screwed if one of our big contributors has a bad game. I don't think enough credit is being given to our Defense which has been improving along with our overall play.

VTech is garbage and they don't have much home court advantage with students on break. Just lost by 30 to WV Should win comfortably there.

the one good thing is that this is a down year all across the NCAA's. tons of teams are bad that are usually good (SU, Uconn, Mich St, FLorida, etc...). Since we are young, we can certainly improve. Its also going to be a very weak bubble this year, so I think 9-9 in conference will get us in. That said, we have ZERO good wins for a bubble team. If people want to count Iowa, then i guess thats close to one. But nothing that sets u apart.

 

[pearl31]

Probably not even equal.

Did you really just type this?

 

[CorduroyG]

VERY lucky might be a stretch. but lucky? yeah. if you take off the orange colored glasses, you can see we arent clearly better than any of those teams. Probably not even equal.

you dont think we're better than va tech and bc?? actually not even better, you think we're worse?????

 

[GardenOrange]

To get into the NCAA, we probably need 16-4, cause the rest of the schedule has many Ls on it.

 

[two3zone]

It's going to be impossible.

 

[syr14]

It's going to be impossible.

Well we did win today so its still possible. Probably not likely, but possible.

I know you're freaking out but you like to throw out things as facts that aren't true.

 

[two3zone]

Well we did win today so its still possible. Probably not likely, but possible. I know you're freaking out but you like to throw out things as facts that aren't true.

Really? What facts do I throw out that aren't true?

 

[syr14]

Really? What facts do I throw out that aren't true?

2 posts ago you said its impossible to get to 16-4. We won today, its still possible.