PGA Championship
Harding Park - I've played this course 8-10 times, never broke 80 there.
Here are ESPN's Tier 1 contenders with my comments:
ESPN: Here are the legitimate contenders to win the PGA Championship. They have the games, guts and nerves to handle four pressure-packed rounds filled with Pacific winds and juicy, thick rough.
Patrick Cantlay
The 28-year-old tied for third at last year's PGA Championship at Bethpage Black, 6 shots behind Koepka, after finishing tied for ninth at the Masters. The California native, regarded as one of the game's best ball strikers, is more than ready to break through at a major. Possible, but don't bet on it.
Jason Day
The 2015 PGA Championship winner broke up with his longtime swing coach and has looked good in three straight tournaments. His chronic back woes are always a concern. No, I don't see him getting back to where he was. He did much better than I expected, maybe he is back.
Bryson DeChambeau
Lions, tigers and ants, oh my! It would be almost criminal if the PGA doesn't pair DeChambeau with Koepka -- they have traded barbs the past few months -- in the first two rounds. Talk about must-see TV. Serious threat to win, sometime, but not this week - I like Bryson's unorthodoxy, but the scientist schtick is a turn off - not sure if that is his fault or the media's. Not surprised that he was in the hunt, not surprised that he didn't win.
Tony Finau
Clearly, Finau is no Mariano Rivera. He has 30 top-10s since his lone tour victory at the 2016 Puerto Rico Open, tied for the fourth-highest total on tour since the start of the 2016-17 season. Lots of talent and ability to go low, but no - he doesn't seem to have IT - see R Fowler. He made those three 1-putts on the back nine and held up longer than I thought he would. He looks like he has a bad case of Sergio Garcia disease.
Tommy Fleetwood
After a three-month layoff and mandatory 14-day quarantine upon arriving in the U.S. from England, Fleetwood has looked a bit rusty in two starts. He is the highest-ranked player in the Official World Golf Rankings (No. 13) not to have won a tournament on U.S. soil. Was one of my picks to win a major this 'year' but his game doesn't look in good shape. Did better than I expected, hope to see him win one soon.
Rickie Fowler
Since Fowler hired John Tillery as his new swing coach, there have been encouraging signs in his game. If you hadn't heard, he's trying to end an oh-for-39 drought in majors. He has made the cut in 14 straight majors, second to only Koepka's 22 among active players. No, an older version of Finau. I think he is older?
Tyrrell Hatton
The Englishman is controlling his temper and has complete control of his game. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March and had two top-5s after the restart. He has finished in the top 10 in five majors in the previous four years. Possibly.
Dustin Johnson
After winning the Travelers Championship in June, DJ was a mess before a respectable showing in the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational this past week. He nearly chased down Koepka in the final round at Bethpage Black last year before losing by 2. Looks like crap for months and then bombs a win. I would not bet on him this week. I wanted Paul Casey to win, but Dustin would have been my second choice - the golf gods owe him. Dustin might be developing a case of Greg Norman disease.
Brooks Koepka
Just when we thought Koepka was in trouble, he returned to form at TPC Southwind. Nobody plays better in majors -- just ask him. Koepka is 70 under in 12 majors since the start of 2017, 36 strokes better than everyone else. The guy that was helped the most by the COVID delay - time to recover from his injury, he looked like crap until last week. Still think that Brooks' super-major-mojo has run out, so no. As expected, he didn't win, but he looked damn good for 3 rounds - not sure his major-mojo is totally gone.
Rory McIlroy
The former world No. 1 doesn't have a top-10 in five starts after the long layoff and has looked out of sorts. He won the last tour event at TPC Harding Park -- the 2015 WGC-Match Play. If McIlroy gets his short game in order, he'll be a threat to win a third PGA Championship. My guy! The guy that was hurt the most by the COVID delay - his game was in great shape, he was winning, he was primed for a major win or two - now he is just another contender. Not bad, but not good - as expected, unfortunately.
Collin Morikawa
Winning a major in his first 14 months as a pro might be asking a little too much from Morikawa, but everything has come fast for the 23-year-old. He already has two wins and is ranked No. 12 in the world. I don't think it is asking too much - this kid is a legit threat. Great win. Everyone will remember his drive on 16, which is as good as it gets, but I think the chip in on 14 was more important.
Jon Rahm
With his dominant victory at the Memorial, Rahm joined Seve Ballesteros as the only Spaniards to hold the No. 1 ranking in the world. He's also only the third golfer to reach No. 1 without a major championship win; Lee Westwood and Luke Donald were the others. Rahm finished tied for 11th or better in five of the previous eight majors. My pick. Probably a lot of others' pick. Good tournament - he will win sooner rather than later.
Xander Schauffele
Schauffele is still searching for his first major title and hasn't won in 19 months, but he's typically in the mix on golf's biggest stages. He tied for third at the 2019 U.S. Open and tied for runner-up at the 2019 Masters and 2018 Open Championship. It's only a matter of time until he finally closes one out. Definitely has the game, does he have the mind - not this week.
Adam Scott
The 40-year-old Australian hasn't played on American soil since the coronavirus pandemic shut down the tour in March. He spent the past two weeks working with his team in North Carolina. Scott finished in the top 10 at the past two PGA Championships, including a tie for eighth at Bethpage Black. No.
Webb Simpson
Simpson added a suddenly reliable putter to his world-class irons and has two tour victories to show for it this season. He isn't very long off the tee, but it doesn't matter much when the rest of his game is so good. Very possible - agree with ESPN's assessment.
Justin Thomas
He is coming off a win at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, his 13th victory. All of those have come in the past five seasons. Nobody on tour has more wins than he does over that stretch. Yes, hell yes. My second pick after Rahm. Can't win them all - but he will be one of my top 2 picks for the foreseeable future.
Brendon Todd
A year ago, Todd was ranked No. 797 in the world. He already has two tour wins, held the 54-hole lead in Memphis and is a legitimate contender for PGA Tour Player of the Year. It's his first PGA Championship start since a missed cut in 2015. Possible, but wouldn't bet on him.
Others:
Tiger - no, his luck ran out at the last masters.
Phil - no, even with his good showing last week, and he does well on soft wet CA courses, and it is fog season so the course will be comparatively soft and wet. But no. Was his stint in the announcers' booth a test run? Maybe he realizes that he will be done sooner than the fans do.
Hovland - would not surprise me a bit. This kid is going to be great.
Woodland - no.
Patrick Reed - please no! Thank you.