2020 PGA Tour...

[Oakland]

Brooks is a very interesting study - an uber Alan North.

I'm not going to doubt Koepka until he actually starts playing poorly in the majors. I have made bad opinions on form one too many times.

Here is what Koepka did in his 3 events before the majors last year, and the events in between the 4 majors - MC, 56th, 56th, 4th, 50th, 57th, 65th. He was certainly playing loose with his driver before all the majors.

And here is what he did in the majors - 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 4th

He had a similar trend in 2018, but not as big a gap.

 

[jncuse]

When was the last stunning major champion?

I couldn't find any major champions since 2011 that were outside of the top 50 in the world rankings at the end of their prior tournament. There was period from 2002-2011 where it was pretty common (counted 11 out of 40 events) --
Rich Beem 2002 (73rd)
Ben Curtis 2003 (393rd)
Shaun Micheel 2003 (169th)
Todd Hamilton 2004 (56th)
Michael Campbell 2005 (80th)
Zach Johnson 2007 (56th)
Angel Cabrera 2009 (69th)
Lucas Glover 2009 (76th)
Y.E Yang 2009 (110th)
Darren Clarke 2011 (111th)
Keegan Bradley 2011 (118th)

In the 32 events since then there has been none outside of the top 50 that I could find Jimmy Walker came the closest at #48 in the 2016 PGA... Ernie Els was #40 in 2012 at the British.

 

[690West]

When was the last stunning major champion?

I couldn't find any major champions since 2011 that were outside of the top 50 in the world rankings at the end of their prior tournament. There was period from 2002-2011 where it was pretty common (counted 11 out of 40 events) --
Rich Beem 2002 (73rd)
Ben Curtis 2003 (393rd)
Shaun Micheel 2003 (169th)
Todd Hamilton 2004 (56th)
Michael Campbell 2005 (80th)
Zach Johnson 2007 (56th)
Angel Cabrera 2009 (69th)
Lucas Glover 2009 (76th)
Y.E Yang 2009 (110th)
Darren Clarke 2011 (111th)
Keegan Bradley 2011 (118th)

In the 32 events since then there has been none outside of the top 50 that I could find Jimmy Walker came the closest at #48 in the 2016 PGA... Ernie Els was #40 in 2012 at the British.

Wow. Great research. Danny Willett’s masters win pops into my head. But I guess he was ranked higher than I thought when he won it. Just not a brand name.

 

[jncuse]

Wow. Great research. Danny Willett’s masters win pops into my head. But I guess he was ranked higher than I thought when he won it. Just not a brand name.

My initial thought was Willett was probably somewhere between 30 and 50 at the time, so I did check him to be sure. I was stunned to find that he was actually #12 in the world entering the masters/

 

[rrlbees]

PGA Championship

Harding Park - I've played this course 8-10 times, never broke 80 there.

Here are ESPN's Tier 1 contenders with my comments:

ESPN: Here are the legitimate contenders to win the PGA Championship. They have the games, guts and nerves to handle four pressure-packed rounds filled with Pacific winds and juicy, thick rough.

Patrick Cantlay
The 28-year-old tied for third at last year's PGA Championship at Bethpage Black, 6 shots behind Koepka, after finishing tied for ninth at the Masters. The California native, regarded as one of the game's best ball strikers, is more than ready to break through at a major. Possible, but don't bet on it.

Jason Day
The 2015 PGA Championship winner broke up with his longtime swing coach and has looked good in three straight tournaments. His chronic back woes are always a concern. No, I don't see him getting back to where he was.

Bryson DeChambeau
Lions, tigers and ants, oh my! It would be almost criminal if the PGA doesn't pair DeChambeau with Koepka -- they have traded barbs the past few months -- in the first two rounds. Talk about must-see TV. Serious threat to win, sometime, but not this week - I like Bryson's unorthodoxy, but the scientist schtick is a turn off - not sure if that is his fault or the media's.

Tony Finau
Clearly, Finau is no Mariano Rivera. He has 30 top-10s since his lone tour victory at the 2016 Puerto Rico Open, tied for the fourth-highest total on tour since the start of the 2016-17 season. Lots of talent and ability to go low, but no - he doesn't seem to have IT - see R Fowler.

Tommy Fleetwood
After a three-month layoff and mandatory 14-day quarantine upon arriving in the U.S. from England, Fleetwood has looked a bit rusty in two starts. He is the highest-ranked player in the Official World Golf Rankings (No. 13) not to have won a tournament on U.S. soil. Was one of my picks to win a major this 'year' but his game doesn't look in good shape.

Rickie Fowler
Since Fowler hired John Tillery as his new swing coach, there have been encouraging signs in his game. If you hadn't heard, he's trying to end an oh-for-39 drought in majors. He has made the cut in 14 straight majors, second to only Koepka's 22 among active players. No, an older version of Finau. I think he is older?

Tyrrell Hatton
The Englishman is controlling his temper and has complete control of his game. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March and had two top-5s after the restart. He has finished in the top 10 in five majors in the previous four years. Possibly.

Dustin Johnson
After winning the Travelers Championship in June, DJ was a mess before a respectable showing in the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational this past week. He nearly chased down Koepka in the final round at Bethpage Black last year before losing by 2. Looks like crap for months and then bombs a win. I would not bet on him this week.

Brooks Koepka
Just when we thought Koepka was in trouble, he returned to form at TPC Southwind. Nobody plays better in majors -- just ask him. Koepka is 70 under in 12 majors since the start of 2017, 36 strokes better than everyone else. The guy that was helped the most by the COVID delay - time to recover from his injury, he looked like crap until last week. Still think that Brooks' super-major-mojo has run out, so no.

Rory McIlroy
The former world No. 1 doesn't have a top-10 in five starts after the long layoff and has looked out of sorts. He won the last tour event at TPC Harding Park -- the 2015 WGC-Match Play. If McIlroy gets his short game in order, he'll be a threat to win a third PGA Championship. My guy! The guy that was hurt the most by the COVID delay - his game was in great shape, he was winning, he was primed for a major win or two - now he is just another contender.

Collin Morikawa
Winning a major in his first 14 months as a pro might be asking a little too much from Morikawa, but everything has come fast for the 23-year-old. He already has two wins and is ranked No. 12 in the world. I don't think it is asking too much - this kid is a legit threat.

Jon Rahm
With his dominant victory at the Memorial, Rahm joined Seve Ballesteros as the only Spaniards to hold the No. 1 ranking in the world. He's also only the third golfer to reach No. 1 without a major championship win; Lee Westwood and Luke Donald were the others. Rahm finished tied for 11th or better in five of the previous eight majors. My pick. Probably a lot of others' pick.

Xander Schauffele
Schauffele is still searching for his first major title and hasn't won in 19 months, but he's typically in the mix on golf's biggest stages. He tied for third at the 2019 U.S. Open and tied for runner-up at the 2019 Masters and 2018 Open Championship. It's only a matter of time until he finally closes one out. Definitely has the game, does he have the mind - not this week.

Adam Scott
The 40-year-old Australian hasn't played on American soil since the coronavirus pandemic shut down the tour in March. He spent the past two weeks working with his team in North Carolina. Scott finished in the top 10 at the past two PGA Championships, including a tie for eighth at Bethpage Black. No.

Webb Simpson
Simpson added a suddenly reliable putter to his world-class irons and has two tour victories to show for it this season. He isn't very long off the tee, but it doesn't matter much when the rest of his game is so good. Very possible - agree with ESPN's assessment.

Justin Thomas
He is coming off a win at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, his 13th victory. All of those have come in the past five seasons. Nobody on tour has more wins than he does over that stretch. Yes, hell yes. My second pick after Rahm.

Brendon Todd
A year ago, Todd was ranked No. 797 in the world. He already has two tour wins, held the 54-hole lead in Memphis and is a legitimate contender for PGA Tour Player of the Year. It's his first PGA Championship start since a missed cut in 2015. Possible, but wouldn't bet on him.

Others:

Tiger - no, his luck ran out at the last masters.
Phil - no, even with his good showing last week, and he does well on soft wet CA courses, and it is fog season so the course will be comparatively soft and wet. But no.
Hovland - would not surprise me a bit. This kid is going to be great.
Woodland - no.
Patrick Reed - please no!

I’m hitting 4 guys. Thomas, Schauffele, Cantlay and Reed.

 

[jncuse]

I'm going Hovland (55-1) , Day (35-1), and Koepka (12-1).

I will also take a team of 10 guys at a few bucks each on two way bets (top 8 finishes)... guys over 100-1 just to follow a few guys.

 

[Oakland]

Please give me the details on this bet.

I'm going Hovland (55-1) , Day (35-1), and Koepka (12-1).

I will also take a team of 10 guys at a few bucks each on two way bets (top 8 finishes)... guys over 100-1 just to follow a few guys.

 

[UpstateSM]

Cantlay, Reed, Woodland, and (even though he’s Duke in golf form) Bryson. Derivatives on Ancer and Connors. Let’s rideeeeee

 

[jncuse]

Please give me the details on this bet.

I gamble for amusement to see if I can stay ahead, and give me a group to cheer for in a tournament, not to try to really make money so my wagers are not huge.

Were talking $30 total here, hoping one of them get top 8, which puts me in positive.
$1.50 Win + $1.50 (Top 8, 1/5 odds)

Chez Reavie - 100-1. If he wins I get $183, if he tops 8 I get $31.
Tom Lewis - 140-1 ($255, $44)
Corey Connors - 150-1
Adam Hadwin - 175-1
McKenzie Hughes - 250-1
Si woo KIm - 250-1
Lanto Griffin - 300-1 ($453, $92)
Cameron Smith - 300-1
Nick Taylor - 400-1
Danny Lee - 400-1

I took the 4 Canadians, largely because they are canadians, but they are decent value for players in the top 100 in the world. Hughes has had three top 6 finishes in fairly strong fields since March. Hadwin has heaters in him. Connors has about 10 top 25's this year, but can't seem to crack the top 10 -- good ball striker though and from what I understand this is not a crazy putting course. Taylor just won at pebble so maybe he is comfortable in the Northern California air being from BC - I'm getting 80-1 on top 8.

Reavie has played quite well the past few years -- did slump since the start of the 2019/20 season but has had some good starts recently. Tom Lewis and Si Woo Kim are players that are very inconsistent, but when they do well, they do well. Cameron Smith - he stinks this year, but I figure at some point he can turn it around -- 300-1 on a player at #51 in the world is pretty good, that also has two top 5 finishes in majors in his career.

Lanto Griffin and Danny Lee - no real reason, seemed like good roll of the dices.

EDIT - It was not Tom Lewis that I took -- it was Matthew Wolff at 125-1. Another player that has been inconsistent, but when he is on seems to be on.

 

[jncuse]

Cantlay, Reed, Woodland, and (even though he’s Duke in golf form) Bryson. Derivatives on Ancer and Connors. Let’s rideeeeee

I like Ancer as well - really gritty player that might work in majors. He has played very well since the restart with 4 top 15's in his 5 tournaments, including a 2nd. And these were all at very strong fields.

 

[UpstateSM]

I like Ancer as well - really gritty player that might work in majors. He has played very well since the restart with 4 top 15's in his 5 tournaments, including a 2nd. And these were all at very strong fields.

I don’t think this is the tournament he breaks through and wins but I definitely think he can compete. Top 20 at +225 was too good to pass up.

 

[jncuse]

31 of 78 players this morning are under par. Seems like a pretty fair distribution. 4 guys at -5. And the 31 of 78 is skewed by about 10 PGA Club Pros who are not supposed to do well anyway.

Just scanning the leaderboard and it seems bombers are doing quite well - Day, Koepka, Finau, Woodland and Johnson are all -3 and below. Although like any tournament there will always be a mix of precision players as well.

 

[jncuse]

Is Koepka doing it again? You can never use regular event trends to read this guy.

-4 though 14, and 1 shot out of the lead

 

[jncuse]

Way too early to gloat about my Jason Day pick, but I am going to do it anyway.

Feel free to re-quote this when I look like an idiot as he falls apart in round 2 and 3.

 

[690West]

Way too early to gloat about my Jason Day pick, but I am going to do it anyway.

Feel free to re-quote this when I look like an idiot as he falls apart in round 2 and 3.

I want him to contend all weekend so badly. A truly good dude. That being said I don’t see it for 3/4 days.

 

[jncuse]

I want him to contend all weekend so badly. A truly good dude. That being said I don’t see it for 3/4 days.

He truly does seem like a good guy -- a guy that had many demon like challenges as a teenager (alcohol + father's death), and carried through to where he is today.

 

[upperdeck]

I thought Day was a solid guy to take this week. but i only bet long shots for cheap money instead of bigger money on lower shots.

 

[Oakland]

Well, it only took one round for this post to look bad, but we will see how it plays out.

PGA Championship

Harding Park - I've played this course 8-10 times, never broke 80 there.

Here are ESPN's Tier 1 contenders with my comments:

ESPN: Here are the legitimate contenders to win the PGA Championship. They have the games, guts and nerves to handle four pressure-packed rounds filled with Pacific winds and juicy, thick rough.

Patrick Cantlay
The 28-year-old tied for third at last year's PGA Championship at Bethpage Black, 6 shots behind Koepka, after finishing tied for ninth at the Masters. The California native, regarded as one of the game's best ball strikers, is more than ready to break through at a major. Possible, but don't bet on it.

Jason Day
The 2015 PGA Championship winner broke up with his longtime swing coach and has looked good in three straight tournaments. His chronic back woes are always a concern. No, I don't see him getting back to where he was.

Bryson DeChambeau
Lions, tigers and ants, oh my! It would be almost criminal if the PGA doesn't pair DeChambeau with Koepka -- they have traded barbs the past few months -- in the first two rounds. Talk about must-see TV. Serious threat to win, sometime, but not this week - I like Bryson's unorthodoxy, but the scientist schtick is a turn off - not sure if that is his fault or the media's.

Tony Finau
Clearly, Finau is no Mariano Rivera. He has 30 top-10s since his lone tour victory at the 2016 Puerto Rico Open, tied for the fourth-highest total on tour since the start of the 2016-17 season. Lots of talent and ability to go low, but no - he doesn't seem to have IT - see R Fowler.

Tommy Fleetwood
After a three-month layoff and mandatory 14-day quarantine upon arriving in the U.S. from England, Fleetwood has looked a bit rusty in two starts. He is the highest-ranked player in the Official World Golf Rankings (No. 13) not to have won a tournament on U.S. soil. Was one of my picks to win a major this 'year' but his game doesn't look in good shape.

Rickie Fowler
Since Fowler hired John Tillery as his new swing coach, there have been encouraging signs in his game. If you hadn't heard, he's trying to end an oh-for-39 drought in majors. He has made the cut in 14 straight majors, second to only Koepka's 22 among active players. No, an older version of Finau. I think he is older?

Tyrrell Hatton
The Englishman is controlling his temper and has complete control of his game. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March and had two top-5s after the restart. He has finished in the top 10 in five majors in the previous four years. Possibly.

Dustin Johnson
After winning the Travelers Championship in June, DJ was a mess before a respectable showing in the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational this past week. He nearly chased down Koepka in the final round at Bethpage Black last year before losing by 2. Looks like crap for months and then bombs a win. I would not bet on him this week.

Brooks Koepka
Just when we thought Koepka was in trouble, he returned to form at TPC Southwind. Nobody plays better in majors -- just ask him. Koepka is 70 under in 12 majors since the start of 2017, 36 strokes better than everyone else. The guy that was helped the most by the COVID delay - time to recover from his injury, he looked like crap until last week. Still think that Brooks' super-major-mojo has run out, so no.

Rory McIlroy
The former world No. 1 doesn't have a top-10 in five starts after the long layoff and has looked out of sorts. He won the last tour event at TPC Harding Park -- the 2015 WGC-Match Play. If McIlroy gets his short game in order, he'll be a threat to win a third PGA Championship. My guy! The guy that was hurt the most by the COVID delay - his game was in great shape, he was winning, he was primed for a major win or two - now he is just another contender.

Collin Morikawa
Winning a major in his first 14 months as a pro might be asking a little too much from Morikawa, but everything has come fast for the 23-year-old. He already has two wins and is ranked No. 12 in the world. I don't think it is asking too much - this kid is a legit threat.

Jon Rahm
With his dominant victory at the Memorial, Rahm joined Seve Ballesteros as the only Spaniards to hold the No. 1 ranking in the world. He's also only the third golfer to reach No. 1 without a major championship win; Lee Westwood and Luke Donald were the others. Rahm finished tied for 11th or better in five of the previous eight majors. My pick. Probably a lot of others' pick.

Xander Schauffele
Schauffele is still searching for his first major title and hasn't won in 19 months, but he's typically in the mix on golf's biggest stages. He tied for third at the 2019 U.S. Open and tied for runner-up at the 2019 Masters and 2018 Open Championship. It's only a matter of time until he finally closes one out. Definitely has the game, does he have the mind - not this week.

Adam Scott
The 40-year-old Australian hasn't played on American soil since the coronavirus pandemic shut down the tour in March. He spent the past two weeks working with his team in North Carolina. Scott finished in the top 10 at the past two PGA Championships, including a tie for eighth at Bethpage Black. No.

Webb Simpson
Simpson added a suddenly reliable putter to his world-class irons and has two tour victories to show for it this season. He isn't very long off the tee, but it doesn't matter much when the rest of his game is so good. Very possible - agree with ESPN's assessment.

Justin Thomas
He is coming off a win at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, his 13th victory. All of those have come in the past five seasons. Nobody on tour has more wins than he does over that stretch. Yes, hell yes. My second pick after Rahm.

Brendon Todd
A year ago, Todd was ranked No. 797 in the world. He already has two tour wins, held the 54-hole lead in Memphis and is a legitimate contender for PGA Tour Player of the Year. It's his first PGA Championship start since a missed cut in 2015. Possible, but wouldn't bet on him.

Others:

Tiger - no, his luck ran out at the last masters.
Phil - no, even with his good showing last week, and he does well on soft wet CA courses, and it is fog season so the course will be comparatively soft and wet. But no.
Hovland - would not surprise me a bit. This kid is going to be great.
Woodland - no.
Patrick Reed - please no!

 

[Newhouser]

Way too early to gloat about my Jason Day pick, but I am going to do it anyway.

Feel free to re-quote this when I look like an idiot as he falls apart in round 2 and 3.

He looks like his back is going to go out every time he picks the ball out of the cup.

 

[jncuse]

He looks like his back is going to go out every time he picks the ball out of the cup.

He does -- he is walking a fine line right now. Sort of looks like Fred Couples used to look like around the cup.

I think with his talent, he has figured out how to swing to offset that back injury. But if the back injury worsens, it will probably throw off everything.

 

[jncuse]

Who had Haatong Li?

Can't see why anyone would have picked him this year... he was a pretty hot prospect back in early 2018, when he won fairly big event in Dubai and moved up to #32 in the world (he had also finished 3rd in the 2017 British Open) But since then it was a steady 2018 and first half 2019, but a rapid decline for the past 12 months from #42 to now #114 in the world... he was pretty much unplayable at the 2019 President's Cup.

His best finish in 8 events this year is 21st at an decent field European event.

 

[MSOrange]

Tringale signs incorrect scorecard, DQ'd at PGA

Cameron Tringale has been disqualified from the PGA Championship after signing an incorrect scorecard following his second round on Friday.

www.espn.com

 

[jncuse]

Dejavu for Tringale. A few hours ago I wanted to find out why he was DQ'd, googled, and found a scorecard error issue from the fourth round of the 2014 PGA.

Perhaps not the sharpest tool out there. These errors typically have nothing to do with cheating but more about being careless.

Cameron Tringale disqualified from PGA Championship after scorecard error

The PGA of America is one of the world's largest sports organizations, composed of PGA of America Golf Professionals who work daily to grow interest and participation in the game of golf.

www.pga.com

 

[upperdeck]

fowler misses the cut when he whiffed a 2in putt.

 

[upperdeck]

reavie made 2 clutch putts to make the cut on the line.. JT gets up and down on 18 to make the cut.

I have Berger/Todd/Wolff also had Reavie gonna need a huge sat though

got all 6 in my fanduel to make the cut. so shot at some money there