2021 Lineup Predictions

[Powellfan]

I hope Stephen is more aggressive and shoots at the goal more this season like his first three seasons. I know he’s turning into more of a facilitator but he only had 3 shots on goal through all five games last year but I also noticed his shooting% has been going down every year too.

Yes, this. He took only nine shots all season, which is less than 2 per game, and ninth on the team. Always like an unselfish player but you still need establish yourself as a scorer on some level. Of course I'm sure this is partly why Hopkins short sticked him last year and that was a disaster for them.

It’s actually rather easy to distribute equal playing time to four players over three spots. They each play three quarters or 75% of the game. Plenty of run for everyone.

Whether that’s the goal, only the staff knows. But it is easy to achieve. The hard part is deciding which three you want on the field in the tight moments when they need a goal or three.

I have given this some thought too and it might make the most sense to start the season. If you are looking for a QB to facilitate things, that is Rhefuss' game more than Cook's. I think there is a misconception about Cook being a facilitator, high school stats don't tell the whole story obviously, but he is more of a scorer than a passer. I think he had something like 60 goals and 30 assists his senior year. To me he looks best when he is coming around from X and shaking free his defender. I think most of his assists come in unsettled situations. He may look physically like Kevin Rice out there but they are two different players.

FWIW Hiltz had more assists in high school than college, so you might not necessarily need Rhefuss directing traffic if Hiltz can do it better. And as pointed out before from people like Ivorytower and Ohiomilax, it's not necessarily about left-handedness vs right handedness that dictates who should play, but where those players operate from. I haven't watched a ton of Hiltz tape but from what I gathered he is strictly a wing player and almost never goes behind the goal. Cook is usually operating from the right side of the field or behind the goal. Rhefuss operates a lot from the left wing but can also go behind the goal. On paper it seems like Cook would balance things out better, but Rhefuss might be okay if he can stay at X more.

Its's a tough call. Cook is the better dodger (though not dominant by any means) and the better rider, but Rhefuss is the better passer. Given you have two guys in Scanlan and supposedly Hiltz who are lights out shooting, its probably best if that third guy is a passer (especially with the midfield dodgers SU has). So my final verdict would be to play Rhefuss with Hiltz and Scanlan and use Cook as a change of pace for Rhefuss and Hiltz. Its really hard to tell until we see all three of them on the field, but I think this is a good "problem" to have.

 

[sholokov2]

Yes, this. He took only nine shots all season, which is less than 2 per game, and ninth on the team. Always like an unselfish player but you still need establish yourself as a scorer on some level. Of course I'm sure this is partly why Hopkins short sticked him last year and that was a disaster for them.



I have given this some thought too and it might make the most sense to start the season. If you are looking for a QB to facilitate things, that is Rhefuss' game more than Cook's. I think there is a misconception about Cook being a facilitator, high school stats don't tell the whole story obviously, but he is more of a scorer than a passer. I think he had something like 60 goals and 30 assists his senior year. To me he looks best when he is coming around from X and shaking free his defender. I think most of his assists come in unsettled situations. He may look physically like Kevin Rice out there but they are two different players.

FWIW Hiltz had more assists in high school than college, so you might not necessarily need Rhefuss directing traffic if Hiltz can do it better. And as pointed out before from people like Ivorytower and Ohiomilax, it's not necessarily about left-handedness vs right handedness that dictates who should play, but where those players operate from. I haven't watched a ton of Hiltz tape but from what I gathered he is strictly a wing player and almost never goes behind the goal. Cook is usually operating from the right side of the field or behind the goal. Rhefuss operates a lot from the left wing but can also go behind the goal. On paper it seems like Cook would balance things out better, but Rhefuss might be okay if he can stay at X more.

Its's a tough call. Cook is the better dodger (though not dominant by any means) and the better rider, but Rhefuss is the better passer. Given you have two guys in Scanlan and supposedly Hiltz who are lights out shooting, its probably best if that third guy is a passer (especially with the midfield dodgers SU has). So my final verdict would be to play Rhefuss with Hiltz and Scanlan and use Cook as a change of pace for Rhefuss and Hiltz. Its really hard to tell until we see all three of them on the field, but I think this is a good "problem" to have.

I've always had the impression that Rehfuss takes a flatter angle from x than is conducive to getting to a location in front of the net where he can take a shot. Because he needs more time to correct to a good shooting angle, he makes himself more vulnerable to doubles that push him further away.
He has compensated by improving his passing. And once and a while, he shoots from an impossible angle and scores, but not often. He's smart enough not to shoot out of frustration, so his patience gives him time to find Scanlan on the other side.

As for Cook, I remember it took JoJo almost through his junior season before he became a dangerous scorer from x and from in front. Cook often gets himself into good position in front of the net, but when he does he is easily knocked just as he shoots even in close and misses. Strength, physical maturity will help this year, but I think he will need this year to come into his own. His major contributions and I don't think he gets enough credit for them are his intensity and hustle. They have a palpable impact on the other offensive players. Just for these, he will play a great deal. Every second he's on the field he will improve his offensive capabilities. And he will pick up his teammates psychologically.

 

[CuSeLaX]

I was exaggerating when I said 90% but I guarantee you see that line 75% of the time if not more. I don’t have the stats but visually last year that line played close to 75% of the minutes at midfield. And correct me if I’m wrong but I remember times where one 1st liner got a break while the other two went out with 1 second liner.

In this specialized game lacrosse is now there is much less running for the midfield. A Matt Abbott isn’t walking into the white lines at Syracuse maybe ever again.

Desko is going to play the 1st midfield a ton this year. These guys are fantastic athletes they won’t get tired. If we want to win our best chance is to have those 3 on the field as much as possible.

 

[ctlax]

I think it was the Hopkins game last year & they had a nice lead & Desko kept putting 1st midfield in. Then Dordevic pulled up lame, luckily he was fine but that is always in the back of my mind.

 

[ivorytower]

Wish there were full JHU game vid instead of just highlights.

Do recall 1st line being in JHU late but O play in 4q was lethargic and sloppy with several unforced to's and O taking very few shots. Checked box and JHU actually outshot us 15-5 in fourth. Maybe team bit disinterested by then sitting on lead but also could have been tiredness and perhaps caution . In any event, we have the talents to keep them fresh enuff for 4q.

However much 2nd line is used, someone on it will have to anchor and lead as Lipka did. That player does not necessarily have to be the most productive member of unit.

Throw this idea out there - maybe infrequently see all 4 attackman on field since both Refhuss and Hiltz are capable of playing n directing 2nd mf line Would not use Cook at mid again.

 

[OrangWest]

Good post, hard to really disagree with any of that to be honest. Going to try and give some quick thoughts and include some dark horse guys at a few of the positions.

Attack - Scanlan, Rhefuss, Hiltz - Cook and ? - It might not happen right away but I expect Hiltz to take over the third attack spot from either Cook or Rhefuss depending on the matchup and who maybe struggling at the time. Hiltz just answers to many questions at the attack unit for SU to not see major minutes. That leaves Cook or Rhefuss as your 4th attack which is a great problem to have. I remain sky high on Cook but he needs to take his offensive game up another notch, the riding and hustle is there but the O game is still lacking from his pedigree and HS results. Fifth attackmen is completely unknown at this point. I expect Seebold to see time a middie so I won't include him here. I had heard real good things about Birtwistle but SU has him listed as a Mid. Could be they feel he has an easier track to PT there. Assuming he is now a middie I will go with Ferris as my dark horse and Berkman as the logical choice.

Middie - 1st line - Trimbo, Dordevic, Curry - No comments needed, best midfield in the country and its not even close though there a few other really good mid lines out there.
2nd line - Buttermore, Seebold (assuming staff will really play him here if not then Quinn) Max Rosa
3rd Line - Fiorini, Magnan, Quinn or McGuire
As noted no comments needed for the 1st line. As for the 2nd line as Powell noted the only sure thing is Buttermore and he didn't look like himself last year, although I am thrilled he ended up coming back as there were some rumblings. If your a middie this is your chance to make a move and get on that second line because with Lipka gone and the Kim Twins at Rutty there are spots to be had. I assume the staff will give Seebold the first crack at it but I could be wrong. I put Quinn down but to be honest it's hard to have any real faith he can stick. Were in year four now with him and while he flashed early last year he started making the same mistakes (bad shot selection and turnovers) and his playing time waned by the time of the Hop game. I am certainly not giving up on him by any stretch but you get the feeling this spring is make or break for him. Rosa is my dark horse here, guy the staff likes and played well in the fall scrimmages in 2019, keep an eye on him. As for the the third line I went with two highly regarded guys who ahven't gotten much run yet in Fiorini and Magnan. I was real high Magnan but so far he hasn't shown much in limited PT. Fiorini got some run with the third line his frosh year but then only saw pt in one game like Magnan last year when SU rolled with the 1 line a lot. I wouldn't put them in the same spot as Quinn as far as a last go but the clock is ticking on both. McGuire is my dark horse and I thought about Birtwistle here to. A young middie usually comes out of no where to see some PT albeit in the third line each year, I beleive the staff likes both of these guys. I think Tenaglia could have pushed for PT on the 2nd line but I believe hes hurt and not expected to play.

EMO Group - To me this is where Desko/March need to think outside the box a little bit. SU has been going with all starters for several years now and I think this is a bit of a mistake. A guy like Buttermore is perfect for the man up unit. I would love to see him out there in place of say Cook. Gives you 4 (really 5 with Scanlans mid background) deadly shooters. I really hope the staff gives him a look. If we know about a media session I will try and see if we can get one of the reporters to ask about it.

FOGO - Phaup/Varello/Savage - Great 1-2 punch and I think Savage is the third guy as I have heard nothing but good stuff on him. Not a lot say here to be honest, Phaup was outstanding last season and Varello looked like a different guy. The new rules on grip could cause some issue but those three a great trio to have.

Wings - Wykoff, Drago, Page, Dearth, Aviles, Barlow,
Plenty of options here for SU and with Dearth and Aviles they have two great options for the short stick player. Aviles who I was sky high on last year was better then advertised, he looked like a RS Jr out there not a true frosh. He's just putting it together, watch out, he has the potential to be a lot like a certain two way middie from 08 and 09. Fernandez is definitely a loss on teh wings but Wykoff is a groundball machine and a veteran of playign the wing, were in good shape there. I went with Drago and Page as SU likes to run LSM's as the pole guy and they both have speed and size. In a perfect world Kennedy would get some run but we can't risk him blowing out a knee on a FOGO scrum.

Will try and get to the defense tomorrow.

Thanks and look forward to the d. Great look at the depth chart. Pumped!

 

[CuseNHouse]

Landon Clary has been minimized here . I predict he will play a much bigger role. He’s an animal and I think in many ways pushed Fernandez out. Let’s see.

 

[ivorytower]

Fernandez left for other reasons but yes, Clary n Page are both good young talents n should be in the mix

 

[W'boro'Cuse315]

Fernandez will be a top 10-12 LSM nationally & be All Big Ten for the remainder of his career. His tenacity & stick work are elite. That being said, I’m excited for our young LSM group.

 

[ivorytower]

Yes. He was a good player especially off wing. He now plays for another but maybe sidelined so time to move off discussing our ex's and move on to the range of talents here. Lsm will be manned by good atheletes be it Wykoff, Clary, Pag or any combo of such and always have the nuclear option of Kennedy. Use to enjoy us double poling on faceoffs and wonder if that will be used again with the new face-off rules. How that change impacts our fogo duo n their acc counterparts is a thread in and of itself since possession will be ultra important in the high powered ACC .

 

[ThundrTroll]

IF there is a logjam at attack DUE TO emergence of Hiltz (I admit to never seeing him play to know strengths etc.), what about Scanlan getting runs at midfield? Pretty sure he was a midfielder freshman year at Loyola. A first line getting 90% of reps is unrealistic...those guys would be knackered in a single game at that rate let alone across an entire season. Having Curry on the second line would provide better balance while justifying that midfield line getting more reps and having fresher legs for both lines.

 

[Powellfan]

IF there is a logjam at attack DUE TO emergence of Hiltz (I admit to never seeing him play to know strengths etc.), what about Scanlan getting runs at midfield? Pretty sure he was a midfielder freshman year at Loyola. A first line getting 90% of reps is unrealistic...those guys would be knackered in a single game at that rate let alone across an entire season. Having Curry on the second line would provide better balance while justifying that midfield line getting more reps and having fresher legs for both lines.

Understand the reasoning, but I can’t see that happening. For one, I don’t think any of the current starting midfielders would take kindly to being demoted. Second, I don’t think it’s good to move players back and forth between positions and lastly, if you move Curry to the second line you’d be playing your starters without one of your top four players, which I don’t think is a good idea.

 

[ClvrUsrnm]

Fun little hypothetical:

What does the lineup look like if Josh Zawada hadn’t flipped to Michigan?

The rest of the roster is the same, including Hiltz flipping to Cuse.

 

[ivorytower]

Fun little hypothetical:

What does the lineup look like if Josh Zawada hadn’t flipped to Michigan?

The rest of the roster is the same, including Hiltz flipping to Cuse.

Is Winauskaus also still here? A unpleasant mental exercise . Pass.

 

[ClvrUsrnm]

Is Winauskaus also still here? A unpleasant mental exercise . Pass.

This isn’t meant as woe-is-me cryfest about what could of been. Just a thought exercise. But, sure, crap on it right from the start.