2021 O/U conference Wins

[Chip]

The new renovation should help recruiting.

Fans need to do our part and put 40K in the Dome

I'd be shocked if we get 25k for Rutgers.

I think there are people that will still be nervous to attend.

But more importantly, I think there are a lot more people who just don't care.

 

[SUskibum]

He said “any time”, so it depends how you define “time”; one drive, a quarter, a half, a whole game, a stretch of games or a whole season.
Yes we all know the lore of the “Two Games”, but the playing time was about a quarter in one game and a half in the other.
Is that a significant amount of time? Do you factor in Western Michigan and Notre Dame from the same season?
You say yes those two games count as a “time”, others look on a bigger scale and say no.
For me the disappointment of the last two years makes those two games a distant memory of another era.

The selective Memory around TD is unbelievable (I think I know why)

So you want to cherry pick his 2 drives vs Western Mich in 2018 but completely ignore his full game vs them the next year where he threw for 4 TDs, ran for another, threw for 287 yarfs (77% comp) and ran for another 85 yarfs

He has has bad games (MD game and Clemson 2019 comes to mind) and great games and some ok games.

Heck even his last two games in 2020 he was decent, he threw for 450 yarfs, 4 TDs and 1 pick with no line and tons of drops

If Tommy is healthy and his line is average and his receivers start catching the ball (go rewatch duke and GT from last year and count the yarfs and TDs left on table because of drops on great throws) he will be somewhere between good and great. I won’t say elite until I see better pocket presence

Edit, also if the line gets to average we will come a lot closer to 2018 than 2020. I think Tommy being healthy helps that but Jorts has shown he can lead a team to wins as well

 

[Scooch]

I'd be shocked if we get 25k for Rutgers.

I think there are people that will still be nervous to attend.

But more importantly, I think there are a lot more people who just don't care.

I'm also not convinced that the Dome renovations move the needle in a big way when it comes to recruiting. If one is familiar with the old Dome -- the inflatable roof, subpar lighting and tiny video boards -- the renovations look spectacular. And I'm not saying it doesn't appear to be an impressive facility in its own right these days. But these kids see a lot of impressive facilities. I suspect landing better recruits still has more to do with the pitch and hard work of the staff. But maybe I'm wrong.

 

[Chip]

I'm also not convinced that the Dome renovations move the needle in a big way when it comes to recruiting. If one is familiar with the old Dome -- the inflatable roof, subpar lighting and tiny video boards -- the renovations look spectacular. And I'm not saying it doesn't appear to be an impressive facility in its own right these days. But these kids see a lot of impressive facilities. I suspect landing better recruits still has more to do with the pitch and hard work of the staff. But maybe I'm wrong.

The video board may help. Kids like seeing themselves on the big screen.

But yeah, unless that stadium is full of people and loud, it's not going to be all that effective in getting more kids to play there.

 

[OrangeAl]

The new renovation should help recruiting.

Fans need to do our part and put 40K in the Dome

As fans, we were really doing our part in the 2018 and 2019 seasons. We averaged 42,164 per game in 2019. The crowd atmosphere in 2018 was "electric" as Dino would say. Now the question is, can we regroup after the buzz-kill of the 2019 and 2020 seasons?

 

[elimunelson]

I'm also not convinced that the Dome renovations move the needle in a big way when it comes to recruiting. If one is familiar with the old Dome -- the inflatable roof, subpar lighting and tiny video boards -- the renovations look spectacular. And I'm not saying it doesn't appear to be an impressive facility in its own right these days. But these kids see a lot of impressive facilities. I suspect landing better recruits still has more to do with the pitch and hard work of the staff. But maybe I'm wrong.

You don't know what you don't know. School would probably attract more recruits ironically if they had moved the dome and built a super fancy new facility. Fans/Alum like me would hate this because we're sentimentally attached to a large on campus facility but for recruits who knows?

 

[TheCusian]

That’s all fine and good on the AD’s side. But as a fan I don’t consider a buyout when it comes to if I think a coach should stay or not. When you look at the stats anything less then 6 must go

Well, yeah - as a fan this stuff is easy. Fire the coach! Get better at recruiting 4*! But that's not reality.

I think we need to refer to this chart more. It takes into account schedule strength - which is huge when you're comparing W/L. Not all win/loss records are created equal. SRS is simple rating system and accounts for schedule strength. 0 is average, a negative number is below, positive above for both SRS and Schedule strength:

HC by Win%	Average SRS	Best SRS Year	Win % at Syracuse	Overall schedule strength while HC
Marrone	0.0	6.27	.500	0.54
Babers*	-1.22	12.14	.400	2.51
Shafer	-1.18	2.81	.378	3.26
Robinson	-8.18	-2.08	.213	3.67

* I don't know how to remove 2020 from the data, but the asterisk should be huge. No HC here had faced a year like that in the "stuff you don't control" category.

I think this tells a pretty accurate story. We've been bad to mediocre since P left. Marrone and Babers are the best of the bunch. EDIT: Obviously, Shafer and Robinson were fired, while Marrone left. Dino is on the edge, but probably closer to safe than the board common opinion IMO

 

[SuFTW]

The selective Memory around TD is unbelievable (I think I know why)

So you want to cherry pick his 2 drives vs Western Mich in 2018 but completely ignore his full game vs them the next year where he threw for 4 TDs, ran for another, threw for 287 yarfs (77% comp) and ran for another 85 yarfs

He has has bad games (MD game and Clemson 2019 comes to mind) and great games and some ok games.

Heck even his last two games in 2020 he was decent, he threw for 450 yards, 4 TDs and 1 pick with no line and tons of drops

If Tommy is healthy and his line is average and his recovers start catching the ball (go rewatch duke and GT from last year and count the yarfs and TDs left on table because of drops on great throws) he will be somewhere between good and great. I won’t say elite until I see better pocket presence

Edit, also if the line gets to average we will come a lot closer to 2018 than 2020. I think Tommy being healthy helps that but Jorts has shown he can lead a team to wins as well

For the record it was 5 drives vs Western Michigan.
The frame of reference was 2018, but sure at times he has looked promising and played well since then.

 

[MSOrange]

Well, yeah - as a fan this stuff is easy. Fire the coach! Get better at recruiting 4*! But that's not reality.

I think we need to refer to this chart more. It takes into account schedule strength - which is huge when you're comparing W/L. Not all win/loss records are created equal. SRS is simple rating system and accounts for schedule strength. 0 is average, a negative number is below, positive above for both SRS and Schedule strength:

HC by Win%	Average SRS	Best SRS Year	Win % at Syracuse	Overall schedule strength while HC
Marrone	0.0	6.27	.500	0.54
Babers*	-1.22	12.14	.400	2.51
Shafer	-1.18	2.81	.378	3.26
Robinson	-8.18	-2.08	.213	3.67

* I don't know how to remove 2020 from the data, but the asterisk should be huge. No HC here had faced a year like that in the "stuff you don't control" category.

I think this tells a pretty accurate story. We've been bad to mediocre since P left. Marrone and Babers are the best of the bunch. EDIT: Obviously, Shafer and Robinson were fired, while Marrone left. Dino is on the edge, but probably closer to safe than the board common opinion IMO

Where in this chart do you account for the facility improvements and additional staff budget that Dino has had access to and also where the program was when they took over?

 

[baggerbob]

Where in this chart do you account for the facility improvements and additional staff budget that Dino has had access to and also where the program was when they took over?

Been around a long time it has to be a bowl game this year, needs to win 7 games. You stand a good chance of losing the fan base for the next 10 years if we don't.

 

[chugg21]

As fans, we were really doing our part in the 2018 and 2019 seasons. We averaged 42,164 per game in 2019. The crowd atmosphere in 2018 was "electric" as Dino would say. Now the question is, can we regroup after the buzz-kill of the 2019 and 2020 seasons?

Highly unlikely this year without some kind of huge start. Going to be little to no hype going into the season and all national predictions with us in the basement. Best chance to get momentum going is to start out 3-0 with top 25 Liberty coming in on a Friday night. Lose week 1 at Ohio and the season is probably dead on arrival for the casual fan.

 

[Scooch]

Where in this chart do you account for the facility improvements and additional staff budget that Dino has had access to and also where the program was when they took over?

This is an important point. Dino has certainly faced a more competitive schedule than any coach since Pasqualoni in the late 90s, but he also has more resources than any SU football coach in the history of the program.

 

[SUskibum]

For the record it was 5 drives vs Western Michigan.
The frame of reference was 2018, but sure at times he has looked promising and played well since then.

Fair enough

 

[OttoinGrotto]

The selective Memory around TD is unbelievable (I think I know why)

So you want to cherry pick his 2 drives vs Western Mich in 2018 but completely ignore his full game vs them the next year where he threw for 4 TDs, ran for another, threw for 287 yarfs (77% comp) and ran for another 85 yarfs

He has has bad games (MD game and Clemson 2019 comes to mind) and great games and some ok games.

Heck even his last two games in 2020 he was decent, he threw for 450 yarfs, 4 TDs and 1 pick with no line and tons of drops

If Tommy is healthy and his line is average and his recovers start catching the ball (go rewatch duke and GT from last year and count the yarfs and TDs left on table because of drops on great throws) he will be somewhere between good and great. I won’t say elite until I see better pocket presence

Edit, also if the line gets to average we will come a lot closer to 2018 than 2020. I think Tommy being healthy helps that but Jorts has shown he can lead a team to wins as well

Yarfs!

 

[FloridaFan]

This is an important point. Dino has certainly faced a more competitive schedule than any coach since Pasqualoni in the late 90s, but he also has more resources than any SU football coach in the history of the program.

FWIW did shafer not spend 2 of his 3 years in the ACC?

 

[MSOrange]

FWIW did shafer not spend 2 of his 3 years in the ACC?

You didn't ask me,, but he actually spent all 3 in the ACC. But if you are talking about resources, it was really Dino that has had the IPF, additional support staff and some access to charted planes for recruiting (at least that's what has been mentioned on here before)

 

[FloridaFan]

You didn't ask me,, but he actually spent all 3 in the ACC. But if you are talking about resources, it was really Dino that has had the IPF, additional support staff and some access to charted planes for recruiting (at least that's what has been mentioned on here before)

I was more contending with the part about Dino facing the toughest schedule since the 90’s shafer had to play in the ACC as well and had to start recruiting ACC level players at the start after marrone left. Not saying he was better but i will argue the fact that if Dungey doesn’t get hurt his first years I think we go bowling both years

 

[syrBossHogg]

I think Dino's first two seasons were tougher schedule wise than what Shafer had to face but thankfully we've smartened up and scheduled softer in OOC so that's no longer an excuse

 

[FloridaFan]

I think Dino's first two seasons were tougher schedule wise than what Shafer had to face but thankfully we've smartened up and scheduled softer in OOC so that's no longer an excuse

According to that table someone posted above Shafers Schedule strength was higher then Dino. I may be wrong but wouldn’t that mean his task was tougher?

 

[syrBossHogg]

According to that table someone posted above Shafers Schedule strength was higher then Dino. I may be wrong but wouldn’t that mean his task was tougher?

Yes but that's including all 5 of Dino's seasons, my comment was specific to Dino's first two seasons here (2016 + 2017)

 

[TheCusian]

Where in this chart do you account for the facility improvements and additional staff budget that Dino has had access to and also where the program was when they took over?

Good point. It’s where that stuff breaks down a bit. But remember, ACC money and Wildhack prioritizing new hires and resources took a bit. I think Shafer probably gets a similar asterisk - he followed a successful HC who left the program better than he found it but began his time jumping into a tougher schedule in the ACC.

You‘re arguing for the same thing I am: more context.

 

[TheCusian]

I think Dino's first two seasons were tougher schedule wise than what Shafer had to face but thankfully we've smartened up and scheduled softer in OOC so that's no longer an excuse

He didn’t get to actually go against the newly easier OOC last year. The SOS last year was pretty intense.

 

[syrBossHogg]

He didn’t get to actually go against the newly easier OOC last year. The SOS last year was pretty intense.

It was but the OOC softened up in 2018 and 2019

 

[BrooklynCuse]

He didn’t get to actually go against the newly easier OOC last year. The SOS last year was pretty intense.

How was the SOS last year so intense? Other than Clemson and ND it was Liberty and a bunch of our peers, BC, Lville, Duke, Wake, etc

 

[TheCusian]

How was the SOS last year so intense? Other than Clemson and ND it was Liberty and a bunch of our peers, BC, Lville, Duke, Wake, etc

No FCS + ACC + ND + 1 Ranked OOC

That’s super unusual. I can post the SoS - it’s very high.