2021 Optimism Thread

[GoSU96]

Topic one: Potential OL.

Here is one potential three deep. Class is based on the idea that class status does not change this year, which I think is correct.

No.	Name	Pos.	Yr.	YrSt	Ht	Wt
60​	Matthew Bergeron	OT	So.	2	6-6	312
67​	Chris Bleich	OG	R-So.	1	6-6	332
70​	Wil Froumy	OC	R-So.		6-6	307
57​	Dakota Davis	OG	R-Jr.	2	6-5	327
68​	Airon Servais	OT	R-Sr.	4	6-6	309
51​	Anthony Red	OT	R-Fr.		6-5	297
56​	Darius Tisdale	OG	R-Jr.	1	6-4	342
55​	Josh Ilaoa	OC	Fr.		6-3	295
69​	Patrick Davis	OG	Sr.		6-5	311
52​	Carlos Vettorello	OT	R-So.	2	6-4	289
72​	Mark Petry	OG	So.		6-4	265
53​	Garth Barclay	OT	Fr.		6-7	270
76​	Qadir White	OG	R-So.		6-7	343
	Enrique Cruz, Jr	OL	R		6-5	252
	Kalan Ellis	OL	R		6-5	350
	Wes Hoeh	OL	R		6-4	250
	Austyn Kauhi	OL	R		6-5	260
	Tyler Magnuson	OL	R		6-5	260

If this is the position group that is here August 1 it will be the biggest, most experienced, and have with the best class balance at least in Dino's tenure, if not ever.

That starting group is a legit P5 OL. I think Bergeron, Bleich, and Dakota are locks, and Servais if he returns. Dino has a lot ways to go at center, but my starting group is based on the idea that an upgrade at center is needed. Vettorello, Ilaoa, and Froumy will all be battling. If they want to go massive maybe slide Dakota or Tisdale to center and the other plays right guard.

The OL was noticeably better once Dakota came back. If it holds there won't be a need to play true freshmen like Bergeron and Iloao. If any of those guys play next year it will be because they are really good, not because they need to fill a hole in the roster. Also won't need to make the FB the starting guard. There will be true competition, not scrambling to find guys to play. This will also allow the team to maximize practice and play fast again.
I think they can absorb the seniors not returning, but if Servais moves on adding a transfer OT might be advisable, but in my opinion not essential.

Again, this assumes 100% retention and health so we will know more in the next two months.

Think about a bigger, better OL picking up from the one that paved the way to two one yard rushers at ND and were able to win a 9 1/2 yard rugby scrum against one of the best defenses in D1 this year.

If Rhino comes back I think the short yardage woes of the past are gone.

 

[GoSU96]

Topic two:

Tulsa. Phil Montgomery and Dino have the same influences, run very much the same offense.

Last year they went to the 3-3-5 after going 2-10, 3-9, prior two years and giving up 37.5 and 30 pts per game respectively.

Last year they went 4-8 and gave up 31 pts.

This year they are 6-1, the loss being by 9pts to Okie St., playing in the AAC championship game and giving up 20 pts per game. They are 20th in total defense, 15th in pass defense, 50th in rush defense.

That is a hell of a turnaround from a defense that was awful.

SU in year one of the install definitely had issues, in particular on 3rd down, but SU is 20th in sacks, 15th in TFL, 3rd in Int's and 4th in fumble recoveries.

That is guys making plays. The problems with yardage and points is about getting physically overwhelmed and being on the field too much.

A big part of the 2018 formula was turnovers and giving the offense short fields. They at least had that part down, even if the offense couldn't turn those into nearly enough points.

They repeat that defensive play making with being stouter and improving on 3rd down and watch out, this is at least a top 40 defense that also makes game changing plays.

 

[money3189]

Topic two:

Tulsa. Phil Montgomery and Dino have the same influences, run very much the same offense.

Last year they went to the 3-3-5 after going 2-10, 3-9, prior two years and giving up 37.5 and 30 pts per game respectively.

Last year they went 4-8 and gave up 31 pts.

This year they are 6-1, the loss being by 9pts to Okie St., playing in the AAC championship game and giving up 20 pts per game. They are 20th in total defense, 15th in pass defense, 50th in rush defense.

That is a hell of a turnaround from a defense that was awful.

SU in year one of the install definitely had issues, in particular on 3rd down, but SU is 20th in sacks, 15th in TFL, 3rd in Int's and 4th in fumble recoveries.

That's is guys making plays. The problems with yardage and points is about getting physically overwhelmed and being on the field too much.

A big part of the 2018 formula was turnovers and giving the offense short fields. They at least had that part down, even if the offense couldn't turn those into nearly enough points.

They repeat that defensive play making with being stouter and improving on 3rd down and watch out, this is at least a top 40 defense that also makes game changing plays.

Definitely a positive outlook. Thanks for sharing.

 

[GoSU96]

Topic two:

Tulsa. Phil Montgomery and Dino have the same influences, run very much the same offense.

Last year they went to the 3-3-5 after going 2-10, 3-9, prior two years and giving up 37.5 and 30 pts per game respectively.

Last year they went 4-8 and gave up 31 pts.

This year they are 6-1, the loss being by 9pts to Okie St., playing in the AAC championship game and giving up 20 pts per game. They are 20th in total defense, 15th in pass defense, 50th in rush defense.

That is a hell of a turnaround from a defense that was awful.

SU in year one of the install definitely had issues, in particular on 3rd down, but SU is 20th in sacks, 15th in TFL, 3rd in Int's and 4th in fumble recoveries.

That's is guys making plays. The problems with yardage and points is about getting physically overwhelmed and being on the field too much.

A big part of the 2018 formula was turnovers and giving the offense short fields. They at least had that part down, even if the offense couldn't turn those into nearly enough points.

They repeat that defensive play making with being stouter and improving on 3rd down and watch out, this is at least a top 40 defense that also makes game changing plays.

BTW, they have a 6-3 351 lb NT.

 

[JKinPhilly]

BTW, they have a 6-3 351 lb NT.

let's move Qadir White. It's apparent he's never going to see time on the OL

 

[sufandu]

let's move Qadir White. It's apparent he's never going to see time on the OL

There's a reason he'll never see the field on the oline. It's the same reason he won't see it on the dline. And it's not because he doesn't want to or is lazy.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

There's a reason he'll never see the field on the oline. It's the same reason he won't see it on the dline. And it's because he doesn't want to or is lazy.

Negative. Ghostrider.

There are always other reasons.

 

[sufandu]

Negative. Ghostrider.

There are always other reasons.

Doh, I just reread what I posted. The omission of the word "not" makes a big difference. I'll fix it.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Doh, I just reread what I posted. The omission of the word "not" makes a big difference. I'll fix it.

This changes everything.

 

[Crusty]

Topic two:

Tulsa. Phil Montgomery and Dino have the same influences, run very much the same offense.

Last year they went to the 3-3-5 after going 2-10, 3-9, prior two years and giving up 37.5 and 30 pts per game respectively.

Last year they went 4-8 and gave up 31 pts.

This year they are 6-1, the loss being by 9pts to Okie St., playing in the AAC championship game and giving up 20 pts per game. They are 20th in total defense, 15th in pass defense, 50th in rush defense.

That is a hell of a turnaround from a defense that was awful.

SU in year one of the install definitely had issues, in particular on 3rd down, but SU is 20th in sacks, 15th in TFL, 3rd in Int's and 4th in fumble recoveries.

That is guys making plays. The problems with yardage and points is about getting physically overwhelmed and being on the field too much.

A big part of the 2018 formula was turnovers and giving the offense short fields. They at least had that part down, even if the offense couldn't turn those into nearly enough points.

They repeat that defensive play making with being stouter and improving on 3rd down and watch out, this is at least a top 40 defense that also makes game changing plays.

Interesting analysis. The only thing I would say is this is a heavy lift for one year. We are 111 in total defense, 116 in run defense, 95 in pass defense and 90 in scoring defense.

In order to get to 50th we will need some help on the D line, maybe from a transfer, juco or surprise recruit.

The big challenge for the 3-3-5 as everyone knows is run defense. I don't see the answer at the moment.

That said, I agree with your thinking just wonder if it might take another year.

 

[TheCusian]

Interesting analysis. The only thing I would say is this is a heavy lift for one year. We are 111 in total defense, 116 in run defense, 95 in pass defense and 90 in scoring defense.

In order to get to 50th we will need some help on the D line, maybe from a transfer, juco or surprise recruit.

The big challenge for the 3-3-5 as everyone knows is run defense. I don't see the answer at the moment.

That said, I agree with your thinking just wonder if it might take another year.

BC, NC State, and #2 ND all had issues running the ball vs us late. We dared them to throw by bringing enough numbers up, then moved guys around on the backend to confuse the QB.

The 3-3-5 can be very tough to run on and throw on.

 

[CapitalO]

Negative. Ghostrider.

There are always other reasons.

? for you ( OX ) do you think Qadir will be on next years roster.

 

[AngryOtto]

Interesting analysis. The only thing I would say is this is a heavy lift for one year. We are 111 in total defense, 116 in run defense, 95 in pass defense and 90 in scoring defense.

In order to get to 50th we will need some help on the D line, maybe from a transfer, juco or surprise recruit.

The big challenge for the 3-3-5 as everyone knows is run defense. I don't see the answer at the moment.

That said, I agree with your thinking just wonder if it might take another year.

Part of the numbers was they were on the field for over 80 plays a game. I believe it was the most in all the ncaa. If the offense can actually even be decent next year D will excel.

 

[sufandu]

Interesting analysis. The only thing I would say is this is a heavy lift for one year. We are 111 in total defense, 116 in run defense, 95 in pass defense and 90 in scoring defense.

In order to get to 50th we will need some help on the D line, maybe from a transfer, juco or surprise recruit.

The big challenge for the 3-3-5 as everyone knows is run defense. I don't see the answer at the moment.

That said, I agree with your thinking just wonder if it might take another year.

I think part of the thought is that a young team was learning a new system on the fly. A year of physical maturation, experience from this season, and a legit off season should help.

 

[GoSU96]

Interesting analysis. The only thing I would say is this is a heavy lift for one year. We are 111 in total defense, 116 in run defense, 95 in pass defense and 90 in scoring defense.

In order to get to 50th we will need some help on the D line, maybe from a transfer, juco or surprise recruit.

The big challenge for the 3-3-5 as everyone knows is run defense. I don't see the answer at the moment.

That said, I agree with your thinking just wonder if it might take another year.

they were playing from such an installation, physical, and complementary football deficit that that kind of improvement is possible with reasonable improvement in all three factors

 

[Cuseregular]

Wow great read, thanks for taking the time Steve. Good stuff

 

[upperdeck]

the issue wasnt that most teams ran on us.. it was that we gave up to many 3rd and long so drives never ended..
the biggest issue with young players is confusion.. these kids never played that D and we didnt have quality practice time either.. they depth on drops was off all the time and we got killed on under neath stuff we got too deep on.. that can be fixed pretty fast in an off season.

 

[Crusty]

they were playing from such an installation, physical, and complementary football deficit that that kind of improvement is possible with reasonable improvement in all three factors

Let's hope you are right. I will certainly feel better about our chances if we get some line help.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Topic one: Potential OL.

Here is one potential three deep. Class is based on the idea that class status does not change this year, which I think is correct.

No.	Name	Pos.	Yr.	YrSt	Ht	Wt
60​	Matthew Bergeron	OT	So.	2	6-6	312
67​	Chris Bleich	OG	R-So.	1	6-6	332
70​	Wil Froumy	OC	R-So.		6-6	307
57​	Dakota Davis	OG	R-Jr.	2	6-5	327
68​	Airon Servais	OT	R-Sr.	4	6-6	309
51​	Anthony Red	OT	R-Fr.		6-5	297
56​	Darius Tisdale	OG	R-Jr.	1	6-4	342
55​	Josh Ilaoa	OC	Fr.		6-3	295
69​	Patrick Davis	OG	Sr.		6-5	311
52​	Carlos Vettorello	OT	R-So.	2	6-4	289
72​	Mark Petry	OG	So.		6-4	265
53​	Garth Barclay	OT	Fr.		6-7	270
76​	Qadir White	OG	R-So.		6-7	343
	Enrique Cruz, Jr	OL	R		6-5	252
	Kalan Ellis	OL	R		6-5	350
	Wes Hoeh	OL	R		6-4	250
	Austyn Kauhi	OL	R		6-5	260
	Tyler Magnuson	OL	R		6-5	260

If this is the position group that is here August 1 it will be the biggest, most experienced, and have with the best class balance at least in Dino's tenure, if not ever.

That starting group is a legit P5 OL. I think Bergeron, Bleich, and Dakota are locks, and Servais if he returns. Dino has a lot ways to go at center, but my starting group is based on the idea that an upgrade at center is needed. Vettorello, Ilaoa, and Froumy will all be battling. If they want to go massive maybe slide Dakota or Tisdale to center and the other plays right guard.

The OL was noticeably better once Dakota came back. If it holds there won't be a need to play true freshmen like Bergeron and Iloao. If any of those guys play next year it will be because they are really good, not because they need to fill a hole in the roster. Also won't need to make the FB the starting guard. There will be true competition, not scrambling to find guys to play. This will also allow the team to maximize practice and play fast again.
I think they can absorb the seniors not returning, but if Servais moves on adding a transfer OT might be advisable, but in my opinion not essential.

Again, this assumes 100% retention and health so we will know more in the next two months.

Think about a bigger, better OL picking up from the one that paved the way to two one yard rushers at ND and were able to win a 9 1/2 yard rugby scrum against one of the best defenses in D1 this year.

If Rhino comes back I think the short yardage woes of the past are gone.

I admit, in the spirit of the thread, that those are 10 OL, not only 7, who are "legit" on paper. Healthy and recovery from apparently undisclosed injuries will be critical here. But the numbers seem to be catching up with where they ought to be, plus 5 new guys in this class. But why do they always seem to get injured before the season ever arrives?

 

[IthacaMatt]

Topic two:

Tulsa. Phil Montgomery and Dino have the same influences, run very much the same offense.

Last year they went to the 3-3-5 after going 2-10, 3-9, prior two years and giving up 37.5 and 30 pts per game respectively.

Last year they went 4-8 and gave up 31 pts.

This year they are 6-1, the loss being by 9pts to Okie St., playing in the AAC championship game and giving up 20 pts per game. They are 20th in total defense, 15th in pass defense, 50th in rush defense.

That is a hell of a turnaround from a defense that was awful.

SU in year one of the install definitely had issues, in particular on 3rd down, but SU is 20th in sacks, 15th in TFL, 3rd in Int's and 4th in fumble recoveries.

That is guys making plays. The problems with yardage and points is about getting physically overwhelmed and being on the field too much.

A big part of the 2018 formula was turnovers and giving the offense short fields. They at least had that part down, even if the offense couldn't turn those into nearly enough points.

They repeat that defensive play making with being stouter and improving on 3rd down and watch out, this is at least a top 40 defense that also makes game changing plays.

Do you see 2 or 3 big inside DLs as being likely from the waiver wire?

Because without that, or all 3 of our big guys taking the free year, I don't see the necessary beef at the point of attack. I like aggressive attacking defenses, and it seems we are trending that way again.

But we can't remain so much smaller than the better teams in the conference and expect it to end well, especially if we can't run the ball to convert first downs and give the defense a rest.

 

[sufandu]

Do you see 2 or 3 big inside DLs as being likely from the waiver wire?

Because without that, or all 3 of our big guys taking the free year, I don't see the necessary beef at the point of attack. I like aggressive attacking defenses, and it seems we are trending that way again.

But we can't remain so much smaller than the better teams in the conference and expect it to end well, especially if we can run the ball to convert first downs and give the defense a rest.

Running the ball on offense and putting it in the endzone when given the opportunity could go a long way toward helping the defense. Even if we had a slightly below average running game instead of atrocious and converted a below average number of short fields to touchdowns this year instead of basically none, how much better does that make this year's defense look, and how many more games do we win?

 

[Chip]

I'm going to stay optimistic, but the thing about that OL group is that so many had no development time this year. Which is one problem. The fact that it's due to season missing injuries is what compounds that problem.

We don't exactly recruit the Hogs (of the WFTs of yesteryear), so development is key.

Not worried about Bleich, I assume he practiced. But that group of Froumy, Red, Pat Davis. It will be hard if we have to count on those guys.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Running the ball on offense and putting it in the endzone when given the opportunity could go a long way toward helping the defense. Even if we had a slightly below average running game instead of atrocious and converted a below average number of short fields to touchdowns this year instead of basically none, how much better does that make this year's defense look, and how many more games do we win?

I actually just posted about the idea of combining the 2019 offense and 2020 defense and what kind of result that might get us.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Running the ball on offense and putting it in the endzone when given the opportunity could go a long way toward helping the defense. Even if we had a slightly below average running game instead of atrocious and converted a below average number of short fields to touchdowns this year instead of basically none, how much better does that make this year's defense look, and how many more games do we win?

Oh, yeah, I certainly agree. But without some more beef, we are as susceptible to being "big boyed" as the basketball team's zone is.

 

[GoSU96]

Topic two:

Tulsa. Phil Montgomery and Dino have the same influences, run very much the same offense.

Last year they went to the 3-3-5 after going 2-10, 3-9, prior two years and giving up 37.5 and 30 pts per game respectively.

Last year they went 4-8 and gave up 31 pts.

This year they are 6-1, the loss being by 9pts to Okie St., playing in the AAC championship game and giving up 20 pts per game. They are 20th in total defense, 15th in pass defense, 50th in rush defense.

That is a hell of a turnaround from a defense that was awful.

SU in year one of the install definitely had issues, in particular on 3rd down, but SU is 20th in sacks, 15th in TFL, 3rd in Int's and 4th in fumble recoveries.

That is guys making plays. The problems with yardage and points is about getting physically overwhelmed and being on the field too much.

A big part of the 2018 formula was turnovers and giving the offense short fields. They at least had that part down, even if the offense couldn't turn those into nearly enough points.

They repeat that defensive play making with being stouter and improving on 3rd down and watch out, this is at least a top 40 defense that also makes game changing plays.

Note: Tulsa took Cinci to the last second in the AAC championship game after going 9-27 the prior three years.