2023 Pre-NCAA Tourney Discussion and Bubble Watch

[jncuse]

Most bad ACC losses are committed by two teams, Louisville and Florida State. If Big12 had two teams in bad year, they will have the same result.

That's not correct. It's quite an inaccurate comment to be honest on a few fronts.

1) It wasn't just Louisville and Florida St - they only had 7 of the 18 losses -- there were 4 other teams that had multiple bad losses as listed below.
2) Add Louisville and Florida St to the B12, and that conference still is way behind the ACC in bad losses. (Or alternatively take them out of the ACC, and its 2 bad vs 11 bad)
3) The ACC had 6 teams with at least 2 bad losses. The Big 12 had ZERO.

The really bad teams really hurt and certainly made things worse for everybody, but you are trying to shine a turd in the ACC that doesn't deserve shining.

ACC (Less Louisville and Florida St) = 11 bad losses
Big 12 = 2 Bad losses


2 Loss ACC teams
Louisville 4
Florida St 3
Boston College 3
Notre Dame 2
Syracuse 2
Clemson 2

 

[jncuse]

Ohio State 68, Sparty 58

Ohio St is the only P6 team that has won today, that had no chance of making the tournament unless they earned the auto bid.

Others that are playing tonight.
Oregon vs UCLA (semi's)
Clemson vs Virginia (semi's) (arguably they have a chance in if they get to the final)
Vanderbilt vs UK (quarter's) (arguably they have a chance if they get to the SEC final)

 

[jncuse]

A few big things happened late yesterday that had not been mentioned earlier.

Arizona St won late last night against USC, which moved them in to the last spot in on the matrix (replacing Nevada)

Utah St won.

Clemson with the win yesterday is now on 12 of 102 brackets. Obviously that would jump up huge with a win over Virginia tonight, such that they would be right on that bubble line with a win.

 

[jncuse]

Regarding the ACC - could go anywhere from 4 to 6, depending on what Clemson does tonight.

Still only 3 locks - Duke, Virginia, Miami

NC St took a bit of a hit on the matrix yesterday after their loss - they are now at 91 of 102. I think they will get in could be certainly looking at a play in.

Pitt is now down to second last team in consensus (72 of 102). If Clemson wins tonight they might be the one that falls out.

And Clemson is now 12 of 102. And a win tonight would realistically vault them up quickly to right near that in/out line.

All the ACC teams are probably also watching Arizona St (last team in) out west closely tonight. If they beat Arizona they lock up a spot as well - they are no longer in the mix with those above teams.

 

[UpstateSM]

I go to the ACCT every season. I’ve never really hated the ACC before.

It hit me this week that I hate the ACC. Everything about it. Syracuse has no place here.

The only possible way to enjoy this league would be to shove it down Tobacco Road’s throats on a consistent basis.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Let’s go Cats! Lady Cats punched their ticket last night.

 

[MSOrange]

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Let’s go Cats! Lady Cats punched their ticket last night.

Ticket punched!

 

[MSOrange]

Ticket punched!

Are you going to party the night away with Larry, Darryl and Darryl?

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[jncuse]

No bubble busters yet this week, and that may well end up being the case.

If Florida Atlantic beats UAB tonight in the CUSA Final, it doesn't look like there will be any bubble busters. They are a lock if they lose tonight - a conclusion made by everybody that looks at what committee has done. 102 people have them at an average seed of 8.09 on the matrix- a Q2 loss is not going to eliminate them!

Only P6 team that is left that was out of the tourney before this week was Vanderbilt. Now in the SEC Final. I suppose Vanderbilt might be the outsider to get in this week (a defacto bubble buster) - they are close to the line right now and a win today would probably put them in that 50/50 territory.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[tptcuse]

Gave this a like in honor of our Iggy winner.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

Xavier looks terrible Sean Miller really carried a crappy squad to a great season.

Shaka Smart has that team firing but can't help but think they'll disappoint in the Big Dance.

Sucks that we can't make a run at one of them to be our coach.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Marquette looks really good. Xavier trying to get back in the game.

 

[jncuse]

#1 Seed Race - Houston, Alabama, Kansas are locks.
I can see the final #1 seed going to Purdue or UCLA.
The #1 overall seed race also seems to pretty tight now between Kansas and Alabama.

The fact that Purdue and Alabama are playing tomorrow might force the committee to make the call tonight on both. They may play around with things for Alabama since the game ends at 3:00, but I suspect they will choose Purdue as the #1 (or not) tonight regardless of what they do against Penn St tomorrow.

Things only get interesting if UCLA beats Arizona. If Arizona wins, Purdue is #1 regardless.

I suppose Texas can't totally be disregarded but that would be surprising.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[jncuse]

Unfortunately for Vanderbilt (and Dick), the entire season has to be looked at. Losing at home to Grambling St and Southern Miss will burn you.

11-7 in the SEC is very nice, but they lost their 4 hardest OOC games and then had 2 bad losses in OOC as well.

There is a reason their record is only 20-14 (and NET of only 79)... and its because they have 3 bad losses, and could not win any of their 4 hardest OOC tests.

If they took care of the two above bad games they are 22-12 and nobody is debating anything.
But you can't focus on the quality only.

Yes they have 5 Q1 wins, and 2 top half Q1 wins (Home Tennessee, At Kentucky)
But they have also had 15 chances at Q1 wins and are 5-10.

 

[kirbivore]

I love the Drake

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[orangecuse]

That's not correct. It's quite an inaccurate comment to be honest on a few fronts.

1) It wasn't just Louisville and Florida St - they only had 7 of the 18 losses -- there were 4 other teams that had multiple bad losses as listed below.
2) Add Louisville and Florida St to the B12, and that conference still is way behind the ACC in bad losses. (Or alternatively take them out of the ACC, and its 2 bad vs 11 bad)
3) The ACC had 6 teams with at least 2 bad losses. The Big 12 had ZERO.

The really bad teams really hurt and certainly made things worse for everybody, but you are trying to shine a turd in the ACC that doesn't deserve shining.

ACC (Less Louisville and Florida St) = 11 bad losses
Big 12 = 2 Bad losses


2 Loss ACC teams
Louisville 4
Florida St 3
Boston College 3
Notre Dame 2
Syracuse 2
Clemson 2

Yeah, should know better than to make such a false statement against you of all people on this topic. You da man on this stuff.

Statistical facts > subjective baseless opinions.

 

[kirbivore]

Maybe Vitale had a change of heart after watching them get boat raced by the Aggies.

 

[kirbivore]

#1 Seed Race - Houston, Alabama, Kansas are locks.
I can see the final #1 seed going to Purdue or UCLA.
The #1 overall seed race also seems to pretty tight now between Kansas and Alabama.

The fact that Purdue and Alabama are playing tomorrow might force the committee to make the call tonight on both. They may play around with things for Alabama since the game ends at 3:00, but I suspect they will choose Purdue as the #1 (or not) tonight regardless of what they do against Penn St tomorrow.

Things only get interesting if UCLA beats Arizona. If Arizona wins, Purdue is #1 regardless.

I suppose Texas can't totally be disregarded but that would be surprising.

That is true. The committee are usually lazy when it comes to Sunday games. There's no true bid stealers left. I agree if UCLA loses the bracket is done tonight.

 

[jncuse]

Comparing Pitt to Vanderbilt


Pitt is currently the last team in per the Matrix (80 of 118)
Vandy is in 13 of 118 per the matrix.

They are actually very close, and its interesting that Pitt won at Vandy in OOC.
Neither has great NET or Power Rankings.
Both have some bad losses - Vandy has one more.
Vandy has the more impressive wins, but more chances.

I would give the slight edge to Vandy based on having 2 Top Half Q1 wins if not for the fact that Pitt won at Vandy. Its very rare that there is actually a head to head matchup between two teams on the bubble from different conferences and that it may matter so much. But to me the teams or so close, that its enough for me to give the final spot to Pitt instead of Vandy.

Pitt vs Vandy Data

NET 67 vs 79
Predictive Metrics (KP, SAG, BPI) 69 vs 72
Record 22-11 vs 20-14
Conf 15-7 ACC vs 13-8 SEC
Q1 4-4 vs 5-10
Q1+Q2 7-9 vs 10-11
Q1 "Elite / Top Half" Wins - 0 vs 2
OOC SOS - 145 vs 122
Bad Losses : 2 vs 3
Q4 Loss : 1 vs 1

Pitt Quality Wins - Virginia, At Northwestern, At NC St, At UNC
Vanderbility Quality Wins - Tennessee, At Kentucky, Arkansas, Kentucky (N), Florida

Pitt Bad Losses - At Notre Dame,Florida St
Vanderbilt Bad Losses - At LSU, Southern Miss, Grambling St