2023 Pre-NCAA Tourney Discussion and Bubble Watch

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Toga]

So all of our coaches are out on the road recruiting, not like these schmucks who have to get their teams ready for the tournament. So that's nice.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[PoppyHart]

Comparing Pitt to Vanderbilt


Pitt is currently the last team in per the Matrix (80 of 118)
Vandy is in 13 of 118 per the matrix.

They are actually very close, and its interesting that Pitt won at Vandy in OOC.
Neither has great NET or Power Rankings.
Both have some bad losses - Vandy has one more.
Vandy has the more impressive wins, but more chances.

I would give the slight edge to Vandy based on having 2 Top Half Q1 wins if not for the fact that Pitt won at Vandy. Its very rare that there is actually a head to head matchup between two teams on the bubble from different conferences and that it may matter so much. But to me the teams or so close, that its enough for me to give the final spot to Pitt instead of Vandy.

Pitt vs Vandy Data

NET 67 vs 79
Predictive Metrics (KP, SAG, BPI) 69 vs 72
Record 22-11 vs 20-14
Conf 15-7 ACC vs 13-8 SEC
Q1 4-4 vs 5-10
Q1+Q2 7-9 vs 10-11
Q1 "Elite / Top Half" Wins - 0 vs 2
OOC SOS - 145 vs 122
Bad Losses : 2 vs 3
Q4 Loss : 1 vs 1

Pitt Quality Wins - Virginia, At Northwestern, At NC St, At UNC
Vanderbility Quality Wins - Tennessee, At Kentucky, Arkansas, Kentucky (N), Florida

Pitt Bad Losses - At Notre Dame,Florida St
Vanderbilt Bad Losses - At LSU, Southern Miss, Grambling St

Vandy beat Pitt

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[UpstateSM]

Is Dook better without Coach K?

 

[orange7]

Duke looks good. Scheyer has that team rolling…

Jealous we continue to be bad and we couldn’t win big both past and present come tourney time….

 

[orange7]

Is Dook better without Coach K?

It wasn’t K. It was the Duke brand.

 

[Bulldog04]

Duke winning should at least show somewhat that a main asst coach who was a head recruiter can win as a head coach. Yes I get it, it’s Duke, 5 star players blah blah. But this team was really good when they had all their players and the youth of the coach helps them tremendously so players can relate to their coach and play hard for him. Unc looks smart for last year move. Duke this year. Cuse next year. LFG

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[jncuse]

Vandy beat Pitt

Interesting - misread that in their team charts.
So personally I probably have Vandy in front of Pitt.
But sill close.

 

[jncuse]

Pitt is certainly more vulnerable than he suspects. They are considered the last team in per the matrix.

They are at best on equal footing with Rutgers - behind them per the matrix and in my view (Rutgers at 114 of 118 and Pitt at 80 of 118 in the matrix), Rutgers has good number of quality victories and power metrics -- but those 4 bad losses are a bit ugly.
Wisconsin should not be on the list- they are not getting in.

I have 3 of 7 as the main contenders
Rutgers
Pitt
Arizona St
Vanderbilt
Nevada
Oklahoma St
Clemson

I also strongly considered adding NC St to that list.

NC St has ONE Q1 win (1-6 in top 50) Other than that its a clean resume 7-4 in Q3, No bad losses - solid NET (34), OK enough in the power metrics. (avg of 50). Questionable OOC Sos.

Will make my choices tomorrow. The problem with making choices, is its not always the best choice, but guessing what the committee will do.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I just don’t get how Pitt isn’t in. They had a strong OOC schedule. They won at Northwestern. Against the P5 they are 16-11. So 27 of 33 games vs P5 and one of those 6 non P5 was VCU.

Yes they have bad losses to FSU and at ND, but those are still P5 teams. And shouldn’t beating UVA, winning at UNC and at NC St, and beating Miami more than make up for that?

How does 22 Ws, 14-6 in the ACC, and a strong OOC not get you in?

Really the system is broken.

 

[MSOrange]

I just don’t get how Pitt isn’t in. They had a strong OOC schedule. They won at Northwestern. Against the P5 they are 16-11. So 27 of 33 games vs P5 and one of those 6 non P5 was VCU.

Yes they have bad losses to FSU and at ND, but those are still P5 teams. And shouldn’t beating UVA, winning at UNC and at NC St, and beating Miami more than make up for that?

How does 22 Ws, 14-6 in the ACC, and a strong OOC not get you in?

Really the system is broken.

The system is broken because of debate of who is the best of the mediocre? That's ridiculous.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The system is broken because of debate of who is the best of the mediocre? That's ridiculous.

The system meaning the metrics. The NET is garbage. The Qs are garbage. They favor the small conferences and where you play not who you play. You shouldn’t be able to game a metric.

Look at Utah St. who have they beaten? Their OOC was weak, they played no one. They have bad losses, worse than Pitt’s. They went 13-5 in the MWC which isn’t as good as 14-6 in the ACC. They very well could have zero Ws against NCAAT teams and only play 3 games, losing them all. At best they will be 2-4.

Any P5 team that wins more than 2/3 their conference games and plays a decent OOC schedule IMO should be in. So 14-6 in 20 game or 13-5 in 18 game leagues. That isn’t mediocre.

I would also like to see under .500 in conference not taken. But that is a little more debatable.

 

[MSOrange]

The system meaning the metrics. The NET is garbage. The Qs are garbage. They favor the small conferences and where you play not who you play. You shouldn’t be able to game a metric.

Look at Utah St. who have they beaten? Their OOC was weak, they played no one. They have bad losses, worse than Pitt’s. They went 13-5 in the MWC which isn’t as good as 14-6 in the ACC. They very well could have zero Ws against NCAAT teams and only play 3 games, losing them all. At best they will be 2-4.

Any P5 team that wins more than 2/3 their conference games and plays a decent OOC schedule IMO should be in. So 14-6 in 20 game or 13-5 in 18 game leagues. That isn’t mediocre.

I would also like to see under .500 in conference not taken. But that is a little more debatable.

It's obvious every year that you think the tournament should be the Power 5 invitational and you disregard any metrics that discourage that viewpoint. Should the non-Power 5 schools have a smaller margin or error - sure. But it shouldn't be perfection.

 

[UpstateSM]

Going to finish a seed list after the A10 title game and will post it here so everyone can make fun of me