I was looking at an advanced stats article on the UK version of ESPN, talking about how the unsung MVPs of European Football are those who advance the balls into dangerous positions.
Mainstream soccer (I.e., not just Barca and Spain) has moved more possession based in the last 10 years, and the counter-press high up the pitch has been in vogue for maybe the last 5 years, where almost
everybody does some of it now. Yes, Germans like Klopp were doing it 10 years ago, and Barca nearly 20, but I'm talking about mainstream tactics.
That's how you beat possession dominant teams, by challenging them (in spurts, not continuously) with vigorous pressing to force errors close to the opponent's goal. You can't press all game against better athletes, because eventually you'll tire, and then they can cut you open.
So, anyway, that's a long introduction to this article talking about those guys who don't necessarily
score the key goal, but create most of a team's best chances, and forward dribbles and passes into the box. It's like an expected goal and assist concept. Here's a link to the article, which is firewall protected at espn.com
From Doku to Saka: Every Premier League team's "possession MVP"
It's like a press in basketball. You can't do it "balls out" for the whole game, at least not without constant substitutions, like you see in hockey, where they play full bore, but for only a couple minutes at a time.
So, anyway, I'm reading this interesting article, and guys like you'd expect are at the top of the list - Saka (Arsenal), Bruno Fernandez (Man U), Trippier of Newcastle (even though he's a fullback, he gets upfield all the time for them and takes most of their set pieces). There are some surprises like Doku of Man City, despite only playing about half their games is already right at the top. Mbeumo of Brentford is going great.
And then the big surprise - Fulham's and the USMNT's own Antonee Robinson, as Fulham's most important player in aiding their possession, and creating chances for others. This particular quote struck me:
"FULHAM:
Antonee Robinson
- Position: fullback
- Age: 26
- EPV: 1.92
How's this for an approximation? The average diagonal from a center back is roughly worth about the same as the average intercepted pass. Robinson leads the Premier League with 38 interceptions this season,
13 more than anyone else. All in all, they've added 0.19 EPV, or 0.5% of goal-scoring probability per interception.
Against Liverpool on Sunday, Robinson added more EPV than any other
Fulham player: 0.28. Some of the highlights:
- From passes: 0.13
- From interceptions: 0.06
- From blocked passes: 0.06
- From attempted take-ons: minus-0.03
Robinson
intercepted 13 (!) passes against Liverpool, more than double the tally of any other player in any Premier League game this season. And despite that freakish effort, those actions just increased Fulham's probability of scoring a goal by 6%, combined. As these models view the game, everything that happens in and around the box is so much more important than everything else."
Way to go, USA!
