2024 Bracketology / Selection Show

[fieldystick]

This may be impossible to answer, but do you know best/worst case scenario for the Orange? For instance, what might happen if they win both their games in the ACC tournament, vs what happens if they lose their first? I know none of this happens in a vacuum, but I figured with just two weeks left in the season it might be easier to project.

I can’t imagine they would be dinged too much losing to the number 2 team in RPI (Duke, for now). Winning both games might really help, just curious how much? Or winning one but, say losing to Notre Dame again? Hard to believe they could be in play for a one or two seed, but they have an opportunity for a really impressive collection of wins (they already have a bunch). Anyways I’m clearly spiraling now so I’ll stop.

Okay, so let's go worst case first.

Who seems like they could reasonably pass Syracuse?

Notre Dame - already ahead

Duke - pretty close right now, big game(s) left to play
Hopkins - pretty close right now, big game (PSU or UMCP) possibly left to play

Virginia - big games left to play
Maryland - would need to win the Big Ten imo for this to be possible (has head to head over SU)
Cornell - would need to win Ivy League imo for this to be possible (has head to head over SU)

And that's probably it. So I'd hesitantly say that the absolute worst case scenario for Syracuse is 7th, but Hopkins/Maryland might be mutually exclusive... so I'd probably say 6th is the absolute worst case scenario actually.

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Best case scenario... 2nd, unless UVA beats Notre Dame this week. In which case, it's all to play for. If UVA>UND, I think the winner of the ACC tournament is the likely #1 overall seed.

 

[orange79]

This may be impossible to answer, but do you know best/worst case scenario for the Orange? For instance, what might happen if they win both their games in the ACC tournament, vs what happens if they lose their first? I know none of this happens in a vacuum, but I figured with just two weeks left in the season it might be easier to project.

I can’t imagine they would be dinged too much losing to the number 2 team in RPI (Duke, for now). Winning both games might really help, just curious how much? Or winning one but, say losing to Notre Dame again? Hard to believe they could be in play for a one or two seed, but they have an opportunity for a really impressive collection of wins (they already have a bunch). Anyways I’m clearly spiraling now so I’ll stop.

I'm not a bracketologist, but I'll give it a go.

If we were to win the ACCT beating Duke and ND, we would be 4-1 vs. the top 5 RPI. 4-1. No one right now has more than 2 top 5 wins. And wouldn't, if we win the tournament.

So I think we would at least be in the discussion for the #1 seed. Obviously, this is the best cast scenario.

 

[cuselaxss26]

If we won out beating duke, ND or even uva, Nd or however it ends up. No matter who else wins out cause would have best resume n should be #1 seed. No matter if have 4 loses or not would then of beaten least once some twice in top 4 don’t see how don’t give them top seed. Tho i could see them sliding denver in top seed if they won out also along with us tho i really don’t see how they could but stranger things happen.

 

[cuselaxss26]

If we won out beating duke, ND or even uva, Nd or however it ends up. No matter who else wins out cause would have best resume n should be #1 seed. No matter if have 4 loses or not would then of beaten least once some twice in top 4 don’t see how don’t give them top seed. Tho i could see them sliding denver in top seed if they won out also along with us tho i really don’t see how they could but stranger things happen.

cuse not cause

 

[fieldystick]

If we were to win the ACCT beating Duke and ND, we would be 4-1 vs. the top 5 RPI. 4-1. No one right now has more than 2 top 5 wins. And wouldn't, if we win the tournament.

So I think we would at least be in the discussion for the #1 seed. Obviously, this is the best cast scenario.

The part that I bolded is somewhat outside of Syracuse's control and depends on what happens elsewhere.

If Notre Dame beats Virginia on Saturday:
In the situation you describe, I still lean Notre Dame as the #1 overall seed. How strongly I lean Notre Dame at #1... I'd have to see the final numbers.

But yes, it would probably be a discussion. I do not think Syracuse controls their own destiny for the #1 overall seed, though. I guess that's what I want the people reading this to take away from this. Obviously if you win the ACC Tournament and end up seeded 2nd or even 3rd, that's still excellent and a great position to make a run from - don't be disappointed if it's not #1.

 

[orange79]

The part that I bolded is somewhat outside of Syracuse's control and depends on what happens elsewhere.

If Notre Dame beats Virginia on Saturday:
In the situation you describe, I still lean Notre Dame as the #1 overall seed. How strongly I lean Notre Dame at #1... I'd have to see the final numbers.

But yes, it would probably be a discussion. I do not think Syracuse controls their own destiny for the #1 overall seed, though. I guess that's what I want the people reading this to take away from this. Obviously if you win the ACC Tournament and end up seeded 2nd or even 3rd, that's still excellent and a great position to make a run from - don't be disappointed if it's not #1.

Absolutely agree with everything you said. All I was saying was SU would have to be in the conversation if the conditions I listed occurred, since Powellfan asked for a best case scenario.

Thanks for doing this!

 

[Powellfan]

Well, this would be awesome.

 

[fieldystick]

Well, this would be awesome.

Ha. I thought you guys might approve.

Anyway, it's pretty straightforward for me.

Syracuse has better top-end wins than Duke or Hopkins and head-to-head over both. Own RPI is not the be all end all for me.

Hopkins has some semblance of an argument against Syracuse in that they have more wins that "count" (7) than Syracuse (4), but then again, Hop has zero top 5 wins to Syracuse's two T5 wins.

I expect Stevens will have Duke 2nd this week since he seems to lean more heavily on own RPI than I do.

T5/T10/T20, RPI/SOS, *note
Duke: 1/2/5, 1st/6th
Hopkins: 0/3/7, 3rd/4th, *1 bad loss
Syracuse: 2/3/4, 5th/2nd

 

[DMVCuseLax]

Looks great

 

[tech37]

Personally, whether it's first round (which it prob won't be) or Qtrs, want to see Cornell again. Careful wishing for Colgate in first round...remember Bryant/Army first round games. This SU team plays better from behind and might be better off with a first round opponent they're not over-confident about.

 

[Shrmdougluvr]

Ha. I thought you guys might approve.

Anyway, it's pretty straightforward for me.

Syracuse has better top-end wins than Duke or Hopkins and head-to-head over both. Own RPI is not the be all end all for me.

Hopkins has some semblance of an argument against Syracuse in that they have more wins that "count" (7) than Syracuse (4), but then again, Hop has zero top 5 wins to Syracuse's two T5 wins.

I expect Stevens will have Duke 2nd this week since he seems to lean more heavily on own RPI than I do.

T5/T10/T20, RPI/SOS, *note
Duke: 1/2/5, 1st/6th
Hopkins: 0/3/7, 3rd/4th, *1 bad loss
Syracuse: 2/3/4, 5th/2nd

why do you have Colgate in over Army? Just a personal preference?

 

[fieldystick]

why do you have Colgate in over Army? Just a personal preference?

You're about to get a longer explanation than you probably bargained for or wanted, but here goes.

In-season AQs in my bracket are awarded by methodology - never my personal opinion/preference - and this is how I do it:

1) current conference standings. Is there a clear leader/current #1 seed?

If step 1 is inconclusive - no conference games played or an unbreakable tie - go to:

2) media poll - is any tied team ranked in the top 25? If so, highest ranked tied team gets the AQ. I use this step as a "consensus opinion" as to the eventual AQ if there is no conference leader

If step 2 is inconclusive - no teams are ranked in the top 25 or are still tied - go to:

3) RPI - highest ranked tied team from step 1 gets the AQ

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As late as about 7:30 yesterday morning, I had Army as the AQ from the PL. I was giving them the #1 seed/AQ based on step 2, as I anticipated them to be the highest ranked PL team in the media poll. It had not dawned on me that Colgate was actually first in the PL on tiebreakers currently.

--

In the bracket with Army in it, the matchups would have been:
Towson @ #2 Syracuse
Richmond @ #3 Duke
Army @ #4 Johns Hopkins

There are no flights to spare because of Utah/DU and Play-in/UND. Richmond to Syracuse is a flight. It was the only option that I saw that made any sense and still resembled a 1-16 bracket as much as possible.

 

[Powellfan]

Personally, whether it's first round (which it prob won't be) or Qtrs, want to see Cornell again. Careful wishing for Colgate in first round...remember Bryant/Army first round games. This SU team plays better from behind and might be better off with a first round opponent they're not over-confident about.

Cornell would be interesting - first instinct is no way, given how their goalie has been playing recently. He struggled against Notre Dame (sub 50%), but was 75% against SU, 75% against Brown, and 67% vs Harvard. That said, I'm sure SU would love to exact some revenge for the way the first meeting went, especially if ref #77 isn't tilting the field. I think it would be a good game, the emotions of that one would certainly be something.

Bottom line is I don't think there are any "easy" first round opponents, if all things go chalk. Colgate I think would be my preference, they play a very different brand of lacrosse, but given that SU has already played them once, I think they would be prepared for it. Army seems to be without Will Colleti at the face-off x, but they have Paul Johnson back from injury, which makes their offense a little scarier. That said SU seems to have gotten better since their early season matchup, whereas Army is trending down a bit.

A lot depends on tournament upsets and geography. If St Joe's, or UMass end up winning the A10 over Richmond, I imagine they could/would be sent to Syracuse. If Delaware wins the CAA over Towson, same thing. If the Patriot League is won by a team in mid-Atlantic (Navy, Loyola), Syracuse probably isn't seeing one of those teams.

If Air Force wins the ASUN that would give the committee more options for flights, as they would be within driving distance of Denver. If Jacksonville or Utah win that causes more headaches. Very silly that its 2024 and so much of this is based on geography!

 

[Newhouser]

I hate to be that guy but seeding, etc may not matter - hotel rooms over the grad weekend will not be easy for the men's or women's tournament.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

I hate to be that guy but seeding, etc may not matter - hotel rooms over the grad weekend will not be easy for the men's or women's tournament.

Cornell won't need to rent rooms in Syracuse.

 

[fieldystick]

If Air Force wins the ASUN that would give the committee more options for flights, as they would be within driving distance of Denver. If Jacksonville or Utah win that causes more headaches. Very silly that its 2024 and so much of this is based on geography!

This is likely going to be a long, scattered post by me because I have a lot to say about all of this.

To start, if you asked me to seed my current bracket 1-16, I would have it:
#16 @ #1
#14 @ #2
#12 @ #3
#13 @ #4
#15 @ #5
#11 @ #6
#10 @ #7
#9 @ #8

The shuffling from straight 1-16 here is caused by two things: Utah @ Denver and trying to avoid conference games/regular season rematches.

Unfortunately, in the 2-4 seeds trio, I could not find a way to avoid a regular season rematch for someone. Colgate@Syracuse, Towson@Hopkins, Richmond@Duke are all regular season rematches. Someone had to draw one since I couldn't send Richmond to Syracuse or Colgate to Duke.

With that said, I do not think this bracket is too unrepresentative currently. However, Denver at #5 is about as low as they can go that I would be comfortable giving them Utah/Air Force as their first round opponent.

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Potential issue on the horizon:

It's easy to imagine a situation where Notre Dame is the #1 seed, Denver doesn't win the Big East AQ and falls to the #8 seed. Utah wins the ASUN AQ.

The order of seeds 2-7 doesn't really matter here but say: Duke, Syracuse, Virginia, Hopkins, the Maryland/Penn State winner, and Ivy League champion (Yale/Cornell) are those 6 seeds in some order. The last 3 in the field/first 3 unseeded teams are: Maryland/Penn State loser, Yale/Cornell loser, and Georgetown.

The play-in game participants are almost certainly going to be a fight to Notre Dame. There goes one flight.

Utah is a flight to anywhere. Denver is a flight for everyone. Do they send Utah (~14th/15th in this 16 team field) to Denver in the 8/"9" game, or do they spring for the third flight? In my personal bracket, I would budge off 2 flights at this point to maintain a higher degree of matchup equity.

-

Overall, I think trying to limit costs in any sport is admirable. In a sport that is not overall self-sustaining currently/still growing, I think it's nearly vital. Most D1 men's teams are geographically clustered to the point where the flight rule doesn't have too big of an impact most years.

It would be an extreme example, but imagine a situation where a straight 1-16 bracket gave us 5 flights. Or let the nerds like me mess with those pairings a little bit, flip a seed here and there... and we save ~100k on travel in the first round alone. (I pulled that number totally out of my behind, so I could be way off on how much travel/3 additional flights would cost for these programs.)

Some of this is probably me being selfish because I like the puzzle of trying to put together the most sensible bracket possible within the constraints that the NCAA comes up with, but I also think there are long-term benefits to trying to keep costs down for now.

 

[nyclax]

This is likely going to be a long, scattered post by me because I have a lot to say about all of this.

To start, if you asked me to seed my current bracket 1-16, I would have it:
#16 @ #1
#14 @ #2
#12 @ #3
#13 @ #4
#15 @ #5
#11 @ #6
#10 @ #7
#9 @ #8

The shuffling from straight 1-16 here is caused by two things: Utah @ Denver and trying to avoid conference games/regular season rematches.

Unfortunately, in the 2-4 seeds trio, I could not find a way to avoid a regular season rematch for someone. Colgate@Syracuse, Towson@Hopkins, Richmond@Duke are all regular season rematches. Someone had to draw one since I couldn't send Richmond to Syracuse or Colgate to Duke.

With that said, I do not think this bracket is too unrepresentative currently. However, Denver at #5 is about as low as they can go that I would be comfortable giving them Utah/Air Force as their first round opponent.

-

Potential issue on the horizon:

It's easy to imagine a situation where Notre Dame is the #1 seed, Denver doesn't win the Big East AQ and falls to the #8 seed. Utah wins the ASUN AQ.

The order of seeds 2-7 doesn't really matter here but say: Duke, Syracuse, Virginia, Hopkins, the Maryland/Penn State winner, and Ivy League champion (Yale/Cornell) are those 6 seeds in some order. The last 3 in the field/first 3 unseeded teams are: Maryland/Penn State loser, Yale/Cornell loser, and Georgetown.

The play-in game participants are almost certainly going to be a fight to Notre Dame. There goes one flight.

Utah is a flight to anywhere. Denver is a flight for everyone. Do they send Utah (~14th/15th in this 16 team field) to Denver in the 8/"9" game, or do they spring for the third flight? In my personal bracket, I would budge off 2 flights at this point to maintain a higher degree of matchup equity.

-

Overall, I think trying to limit costs in any sport is admirable. In a sport that is not overall self-sustaining currently/still growing, I think it's nearly vital. Most D1 men's teams are geographically clustered to the point where the flight rule doesn't have too big of an impact most years.

It would be an extreme example, but imagine a situation where a straight 1-16 bracket gave us 5 flights. Or let the nerds like me mess with those pairings a little bit, flip a seed here and there... and we save ~100k on travel in the first round alone. (I pulled that number totally out of my behind, so I could be way off on how much travel/3 additional flights would cost for these programs.)

Some of this is probably me being selfish because I like the puzzle of trying to put together the most sensible bracket possible within the constraints that the NCAA comes up with, but I also think there are long-term benefits to trying to keep costs down for now.

they would do 3 flights in this scenario... theyve done it before havent they? sending an ASUN team to the 8 seed would harm bracket integrity...you can maybe get away with sending them to the 5, but 8 is way out of line and would create a bigger headache than the cost of one extra flight than usual

 

[Powellfan]

Dan lays out all of the ACC Tournament possibilities in the below column. SU is locked into the two seed. Most likely scenario to me, is Syracuse plays Duke in the first round, and UVA is the fourth team in. I cannot see how UNC defeats Duke this weekend, especially with Duffy and other out, but I guess crazier things have happened. UNC could only be the fourth seed, so it will be either Duke or UVA for the Orange.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Dan lays out all of the ACC Tournament possibilities in the below column. SU is locked into the two seed. Most likely scenario to me, is Syracuse plays Duke in the first round, and UVA is the fourth team in. I cannot see how UNC defeats Duke this weekend, especially with Duffy and other out, but I guess crazier things have happened. UNC could only be the fourth seed, so it will be either Duke or UVA for the Orange.

Definitely gonna be Duke. Everyone prepare for Oneil and Naso part Deux

 

[Bayside44]

Definitely gonna be Duke. Everyone prepare for Oneil and Naso part Deux

Stupid question - with a top four NCAA seed seemingly done does SU actually need to do this? Other than for the spirit of competition?

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Stupid question - with a top four NCAA seed seemingly done does SU actually need to do this? Other than for the spirit of competition?

And the $$$ it generates for the ACC.

It was always a fundraiser.

 

[FloridaCuse]

And the $$$ it generates for the ACC.

It was always a fundraiser.

If it's really about $$$ they'd hold it in the Dome where it would draw a good crowd. How many will they get in Charlotte? 2,500? [But the ACC give Syracuse any advantage? Please! Money isn't THAT important.]

 

[wgdsr]

Stupid question - with a top four NCAA seed seemingly done does SU actually need to do this? Other than for the spirit of competition?

ask this question again when they're not a top 4 seed.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

If it's really about $$$ they'd hold it in the Dome where it would draw a good crowd. How many will they get in Charlotte? 2,500? [But the ACC give Syracuse any advantage? Please! Money isn't THAT important.]

They were supposed to have a 5 year rotation where every ACC school would get to host twice in 10 years.

Covid ended the ACC's plans. They haven't even had an ACCT for several years. This is the 1st year it's being brought back.

We've always joked that it's an annual fundraiser because the ACC has never had enough teams to be considered for an AQ (except for 1-2 years when SU and ND joined and before Maryland left.

 

[wgdsr]

They were supposed to have a 5 year rotation where every ACC school would get to host twice in 10 years.

Covid ended the ACC's plans. They haven't even had an ACCT for several years. This is the 1st year it's being brought back.

We've always joked that it's an annual fundraiser because the ACC has never had enough teams to be considered for an AQ (except for 1-2 years when SU and ND joined and before Maryland left.

it's a net positive as i don't recall it ever hurting a team getting bumped from the nc$$ (probably a seed line or 2) and it most certainly has gotten teams in (and bumped up seeds).

the tourney is now locked into charlotte thru 2028. unless there's a worldwide pandemic.