2024 Bracketology / Selection Show

[tbonezone]

And this is why you were last team in in 2021 instead of the ~6 seed you should have been. The one season that used this horsecrap methodology. Want to go back?

basketball moved away from the RPI years ago. it's now who you played and HOW you played.
any casual SU hoops fan knows we had the wins . it's the blowouts that cost us.
if you take an opponent to OT. or double OT and lose. you are still equals on the field .

 

[wgdsr]

basketball moved away from the RPI years ago. it's now who you played and HOW you played.
any casual SU hoops fan knows we had the wins . it's the blowouts that cost us.
if you take an opponent to OT. or double OT and lose. you are still equals on the field .

it's 2 different schools of thought. there's process, development, improvement, be competitive, yada. all good.

but it when it comes to evaluating sports results, i'm glad i grew up with the mantra that wins and losses were at the top of the food chain. not participation trophies.

 

[DMVCuseLax]

Do we move to 2 seed?

 

[blust2i3d4]

Do we move to 2 seed?

Did UNC just screw ACC? B1G could easily get 2 of top 3 seeds. SU got 4th seed. Virginia and Duke also also saw they drop on seeding.

 

[DMVCuseLax]

Did UNC just screw ACC? B1G could easily get 2 of top 3 seeds. SU got 4th seed. Virginia and Duke also also saw they drop on seeding.

I don’t see that but who knows.

 

[Powellfan]

Do we move to 2 seed?

In NCAA’s? Don’t know. I think it comes down to the Duke SU game. Hopkins might have a claim depending on how big 10 tourney goes. Denver might sneak in as well if they beat Gtown again. Lots of games still to play.

 

[blust2i3d4]

In NCAA’s? Don’t know. I think it comes down to the Duke SU game. Hopkins might have a claim depending on how big 10 tourney goes. Denver might sneak in as well if they beat Gtown again. Lots of games still to play.

Both Penn State and Maryland will benefit from Duke's loss to UNC. But how high Penn State and Maryland advance we don't know.

 

[fieldystick]

Do we move to 2 seed?

You already were if looking actual wins and losses.

Monday unless something really shocks me in the data in a way I'm not expecting:
1 ND

2 Syracuse
3 Hopkins

4 Duke
5 Denver

6 Maryland
7 Cornell

8 UVA or PSU
-

If you (meaning anyone, not the poster I'm quoting) subscribe to the idea that own RPI decides all of this, why does anyone care what I have to say or Stevens has to say or Foy has to say etc etc. - just look at the RPI!!!

This stuff is not straight RPI. Period.

 

[fieldystick]

In NCAA’s? Don’t know. I think it comes down to the Duke SU game. Hopkins might have a claim depending on how big 10 tourney goes. Denver might sneak in as well if they beat Gtown again. Lots of games still to play.

I think Big Ten champion Hopkins most likely ends up 2nd. But 3rd is their floor because of the Syracuse head to head.

If:
Syracuse>ND ACC championship
Hopkins wins Big Ten

I suspect Hopkins is 3rd.

I do not think Denver is a factor in this discussion at this point. The sheer volume of what ND, Hopkins, and Syracuse (their top 5 wins) are bringing to the table is vastly different than what Denver has or even can have.

 

[fieldystick]

but it when it comes to evaluating sports results, i'm glad i grew up with the mantra that wins and losses were at the top of the food chain. not participation trophies.

Preach! Wins and losses are what matter!

A very wise man once said: "You play to win the game."

 

[Shrmdougluvr]

Did UNC just screw ACC? B1G could easily get 2 of top 3 seeds. SU got 4th seed. Virginia and Duke also also saw they drop on seeding.

Weird way to look at things. Duke lost. What’s UNC supposed to tank?

 

[FloridaCuse]

I think Big Ten champion Hopkins most likely ends up 2nd. But 3rd is their floor because of the Syracuse head to head.

If:
Syracuse>ND ACC championship
Hopkins wins Big Ten

I suspect Hopkins is 3rd.

I do not think Denver is a factor in this discussion at this point. The sheer volume of what ND, Hopkins, and Syracuse (their top 5 wins) are bringing to the table is vastly different than what Denver has or even can have.

It would be really great to get the #2 or #3 seed to potentially avoid ND until Memorial Day. But we might have to beat Duke on Friday to get there. One possible negative is if Duke drops out of the top 5 RPI then we only have one top 5 RPI win, if that matter to the committee instead of solely own RPI.

 

[cuselaxss26]

Or if we beat duke and beat ND don’t really matter that duke or uva drop out top 5 as our resume still be better then would say everyone and possible get #1 seed. I think we if win out that is more then a possibility no matter what else happens. So yea i like that idea let’s def do that.

 

[cuselaxss26]

Mean come monday rankings were def moving into top 3 would say. So be very hard for anyone to argue don’t deserve 1-2 seeds if we win out.

 

[Zack80]

I think Big Ten champion Hopkins most likely ends up 2nd. But 3rd is their floor because of the Syracuse head to head.

If:
Syracuse>ND ACC championship
Hopkins wins Big Ten

I suspect Hopkins is 3rd.

I do not think Denver is a factor in this discussion at this point. The sheer volume of what ND, Hopkins, and Syracuse (their top 5 wins) are bringing to the table is vastly different than what Denver has or even can have.

Hopkins needs to win the Big Ten championship first.
It is fair to note that Hopkins had the UMd, PSU, and Michigan games all at Homewood this season. Now they need to do it on a neutral field at OSU.

 

[fieldystick]

Hopkins needs to win the Big Ten championship first.

"I think Big Ten champion Hopkins most likely ends up 2nd. But 3rd is their floor because of the Syracuse head to head."

Of course. I led with that, but I realize now it might not have been clear what I meant. (I'm not counting chickens.)

I am talking about a Hopkins team that wins the Big Ten tournament, not the Big Ten regular season championship, which is already in the bank. Hopkins winning out from here is the only serious threat to the ACC hegemony we are staring at.

 

[Powellfan]

Did UNC just screw ACC? B1G could easily get 2 of top 3 seeds. SU got 4th seed. Virginia and Duke also also saw they drop on seeding.

I could be wrong, but it might have helped? UNC is #20 in the RPI, which gives the teams that beat them a significant win (why 20 is a big deal and not 21, no idea). Duke remains in the top five as well, as does Syracuse and Notre Dame. It doesn’t look like Virginia dropped at all from the six spot (which, I have to say I don’t know why they are ranked that high). Seems like no harm no foul, but I might be missing something.

 

[fieldystick]

I could be wrong, but it might have helped? UNC is #20 in the RPI, which gives the teams that beat them a significant win (why 20 is a big deal and not 21, no idea). Duke remains in the top five as well, as does Syracuse and Notre Dame. It doesn’t look like Virginia dropped at all from the six spot (which, I have to say I don’t know why they are ranked that high). Seems like no harm no foul, but I might be missing something.

Aha! The 20/21 dance as the biggest deal that only the real nerds know about re-emerges as a topic at the end of April. It’s a big deal. Why is it a big deal? One of the best questions for the NCAA about these selection criteria!

The question is: does UNC stay in? It seems precarious.

But I don’t think it majorly matters to Duke/the ACC anyway. It’s just another feather for the teams that have already beaten UNC. I doubt it makes or breaks anyone.

As for if UNC becomes a bad loss for Duke: well, we’re still talking about Hopkins who lost to Navy.

There’s nothing to see here, as much as some people won’t like that. It looks like Duke has been pretty bad this season to those who have watched certain games. But the metrics disagree. Duke is headed for likely ~5 seed at minimum.

 

[cuselaxss26]

well syracuse def needs to beat duke. Yes we did earlier in season don’t mean be as easy this time around. Who knows tho i doubt was plan that way. But maby duke want to finish where they did to get revenge on us. Either way we have to come out prepared and ready.

 

[DMVCuseLax]

As a lacrosse fan - Play as many games as possible. Play year round. Lol

 

[blust2i3d4]

I could be wrong, but it might have helped? UNC is #20 in the RPI, which gives the teams that beat them a significant win (why 20 is a big deal and not 21, no idea). Duke remains in the top five as well, as does Syracuse and Notre Dame. It doesn’t look like Virginia dropped at all from the six spot (which, I have to say I don’t know why they are ranked that high). Seems like no harm no foul, but I might be missing something.

Because Virginia only lost by one point to Syracuse at Syracuse?

 

[Powellfan]

Because Virginia only lost by one point to Syracuse at Syracuse?

No, has nothing to do with score differential. Just who you played, and who played who you played. Something like that.

 

[Zack80]

"I think Big Ten champion Hopkins most likely ends up 2nd. But 3rd is their floor because of the Syracuse head to head."

Of course. I led with that, but I realize now it might not have been clear what I meant. (I'm not counting chickens.)

I am talking about a Hopkins team that wins the Big Ten tournament, not the Big Ten regular season championship, which is already in the bank. Hopkins winning out from here is the only serious threat to the ACC hegemony we are staring at.

I don't know that I would agree with that. If UMd were to win the Big Ten championship by beating PSU and JHU, it would give UMd 4 top 10 wins, and they would appear to challenge for the #2 seed.

 

[DMVCuseLax]

S

I don't know that I would agree with that. If UMd were to win the Big Ten championship by beating PSU and JHU, it would give UMd 4 top 10 wins, and they would appear to challenge for the #2 seed.

I guess anything can happen.

 

[fieldystick]

I don't know that I would agree with that. If UMd were to win the Big Ten championship by beating PSU and JHU, it would give UMd 4 top 10 wins, and they would appear to challenge for the #2 seed.

RPI just updated, and in a way that matters. So I have to redo some stuff in my spreadsheet that otherwise I'd post here in relation to this.

I'd be surprised if the Maryland you present here gets higher than #3 seed, which is obviously still good. It's not totally certain that they would have Hopkins in the seeding though. It could very well be 4th. Or maybe even 5th if Virginia beats ND!

I am afraid "we" (the Big Ten) are about to get our collective doors blown off by the ACC Blatant RPI booster, 2024 edition (TM).

Hopkins is starting from a much stronger position to attack the ACC teams at the top in terms of seeding than Maryland would be.

JHU, RPI: 2nd
T5 wins: 0
T10 wins: 3
T20 wins: 8
1 bad loss

UMCP, RPI: 7th:
T5 wins: 1
T10 wins: 2
T20 wins: 5
No bad losses


Hopkins is the probable consensus #2 seed in the brackets on Monday/Tuesday, sorry Syracuse fans. The numbers have flipped pretty wildly in favor of Hopkins this weekend. Maryland will be probably 6th or 7th seed on Monday/Tuesday.