2024 Bracketology / Selection Show

[FloridaCuse]

With Loyola losing to Navy last night, Loyola has dropped out of the top 20 RPIs, dropping Hopkins number of top 20 wins by 1. Unfortunately, it also dropped UMd's number of top 20 wins by 1.

Also, N.C. rose to RPI #20 beating out OSU who is now #21, giving Syracuse another Top 20 win. N.C. is ahead of OSU by .000075. This also gives these teams a net loss of another Top 20 win: Denver, Penn St., Maryland, Michigan (2). Obviously all subject to change over the next 4 days.

 

[orangecuse]

I also think you reposting this, after I said it was overly harsh and deleted it proves my point even more….

So thank you for that

100%! "Objective fact."

 

[Powellfan]

Terry Foy has Syracuse as the two seed in his latest Bracketology -

• In this line of thinking, Syracuse gets the nod over Duke and Hopkins because they have one and two more Top 20 wins, less because of those wins head-to-head. That’s an important distinction because, otherwise, seeding Hopkins over Denver becomes one of the least justifiable decisions on the board. But there has to be some number of quality wins (seven vs. three), RPI ranking spots (plus-3) and strength of schedule ranking spots (plus-16) that overcomes the additional Top 5 win head-to-head win and one fewer bad loss, and right now I think that gap is wide enough.

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/il-s-2024-bracketology-third-look-well-that-completely-flipped/63260

 

[JeremyCuse]

Terry Foy has Syracuse as the two seed in his latest Bracketology -

• In this line of thinking, Syracuse gets the nod over Duke and Hopkins because they have one and two more Top 20 wins, less because of those wins head-to-head. That’s an important distinction because, otherwise, seeding Hopkins over Denver becomes one of the least justifiable decisions on the board. But there has to be some number of quality wins (seven vs. three), RPI ranking spots (plus-3) and strength of schedule ranking spots (plus-16) that overcomes the additional Top 5 win head-to-head win and one fewer bad loss, and right now I think that gap is wide enough.

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/il-s-2024-bracketology-third-look-well-that-completely-flipped/63260

Seems reasonable but as we noted before this week and weekend results will really set a lot of the top seeds beyond ND. Seems like SU could be anywhere from 2-6.

 

[Lax Mouse]

Selfishly, I like this bracket a lot. Anything that keeps Cuse and Hop on opposite sides of the bracket. I'd love to see them meet again on memorial day.

I'm not a metrics expert, but I'd also hope that the ACC teams were split up evenly on opposite sides of the bracket as well. Not sure how possible that'll be, but this looks like a favorable draw for ND.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Denver loses.

Hop losing

 

[Zack80]

Michigan 10 Hopkins 7 final

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Powellfan]

With both Denver and Hopkins losing tonight, does that guarantee Syracuse and Duke locking up top three seeds? Hopkins still had the RPI advantage by a very slim margin. Perhaps too much recency bias on my part.

 

[wgdsr]

the ivies have yet to play.

 

[wgdsr]

With both Denver and Hopkins losing tonight, does that guarantee Syracuse and Duke locking up top three seeds? Hopkins still had the RPI advantage by a very slim margin. Perhaps too much recency bias on my part.

with both nd and one of those 2 potentially to play, i can't imagine uva isn't still a possibility. or probability if they can win 2.

 

[DoctahLexus]

With both Denver and Hopkins losing tonight, does that guarantee Syracuse and Duke locking up top three seeds? Hopkins still had the RPI advantage by a very slim margin. Perhaps too much recency bias on my part.

We beat Duke and I bet we can pass Hop. At least I would hope

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Denver loses.

Hop losing

Georgetown wins in OT

 

[FloridaCuse]

We beat Duke and I bet we can pass Hop. At least I would hope

At the moment we're very very slightly ahead of Hop for RPI #3. If we lose we're probably back at #4 behind Hop. If we win I'm not sure we pass Duke at #2 on the RPI but probably do as to seeding.

 

[Shrmdougluvr]

At the moment we're very very slightly ahead of Hop for RPI #3. If we lose we're probably back at #4 behind Hop. If we win I'm not sure we pass Duke at #2 on the RPI but probably do as to seeding.

I appreciate computer rating systems, but Duke being ahead of Syracuse in the RPI shows the flaw in that particular system. Same amount of wins and losses. Syracuse beat Duke head to head, and its four losses are by a total score that is less than what SU beat Duke by. Syracuse's best wins based on the media poll are over the #2, #5, and #6. The worst loss is against #11. Duke's best wins are against #4, #5, and #12. In other words, on the field, Syracuse has demonstrated both a higher ceiling and a higher floor.

 

[Powellfan]

Fieldy's latest. Would be a good first round draw for SU (rematch with Utah), though I can't say I love to idea of a potential rematch with UVA in the second round. Third seed looks like the best draw to me (though I would be suprised if Yale makes it, as I think they are going to lose to Princeton tonight).

I have to wonder if JHU is locked into that three seed, and it's either the two or four seed for Syracuse.

Anyways, in a perfect bracket, I'd want to avoid UVA, Cornell or Penn State in the second round. Denver, Maryland and Hopkins right now all look very shaky. More clarity after tonight.

 

[FloridaCuse]

At the moment we're very very slightly ahead of Hop for RPI #3. If we lose we're probably back at #4 behind Hop. If we win I'm not sure we pass Duke at #2 on the RPI but probably do as to seeding.

As of this morning Syracuse is back to #4 in RPI very slightly behind Hopkins at #3. Penn St. has moved up to #6, Denver down to #7. Maryland #8, Cornell #9, Yale #10, and Georgetown #11. N.C. back down to #22 behind Harvard and Ohio St. ND #1, Duke #2, VA #5.

 

[Powellfan]

Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Maryland vs. IVY/Cornell

Towson, Md.
(5) Virginia vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) Duke vs. COASTAL/Towson

Towson, Md.
(3) Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph's
(6) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Hempstead, N.Y.
(7) Denver vs. Yale
(2) Syracuse vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Yale
First three on the outside: Penn, Michigan, Princeton
Moving in: None
Moving out: None
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)

 

[JeremyCuse]

Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Maryland vs. IVY/Cornell

Towson, Md.
(5) Virginia vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) Duke vs. COASTAL/Towson

Towson, Md.
(3) Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph's
(6) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Hempstead, N.Y.
(7) Denver vs. Yale
(2) Syracuse vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Yale
First three on the outside: Penn, Michigan, Princeton
Moving in: None
Moving out: None
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)

That's a dream bracket if your SU, no guarantees obviously as even Utah will be no pushover but hard to find one better.

 

[Zack80]

If Michigan beats PSU on Saturday, as a Terp fan I am going to have my fingers crossed for the selection show.

It hardly seems worth being seeded if Maryland has to play Cornell at Hempstead, NY.

 

[UrbanaOrange]

Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Maryland vs. IVY/Cornell

Towson, Md.
(5) Virginia vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) Duke vs. COASTAL/Towson

Towson, Md.
(3) Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph's
(6) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Hempstead, N.Y.
(7) Denver vs. Yale
(2) Syracuse vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Yale
First three on the outside: Penn, Michigan, Princeton
Moving in: None
Moving out: None
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)

I would love to see Hop draw SJ.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Powellfan]

With SU no longer in play for the second seed, have to imagine they will draw the winner of the Patriot League (BU or Lehigh). I think Hopkins will grab the three seed and get the winner of the CAA. Maybe SU gets St. Joes if they win the A10. Duke getting the two seed and whoever emerges from the Atlantic 10.

 

[Shrmdougluvr]

I appreciate computer rating systems, but Duke being ahead of Syracuse in the RPI shows the flaw in that particular system. Same amount of wins and losses. Syracuse beat Duke head to head, and its four losses are by a total score that is less than what SU beat Duke by. Syracuse's best wins based on the media poll are over the #2, #5, and #6. The worst loss is against #11. Duke's best wins are against #4, #5, and #12. In other words, on the field, Syracuse has demonstrated both a higher ceiling and a higher floor.

Welp, so much for that.

 

[JeremyCuse]

With SU no longer in play for the second seed, have to imagine they will draw the winner of the Patriot League (BU or Lehigh). I think Hopkins will grab the three seed and get the winner of the CAA. Maybe SU gets St. Joes if they win the A10. Duke getting the two seed and whoever emerges from the Atlantic 10.

Think SU could still get the 3 seed over Hop. They have the head to head and more top 5 wins.