binghamton, hofstra, albany, and hobart are all true cupcakes. if you're losing to any of those teams you're not making the tournament anyway. you shouldn't play more than one or two of that group and definitely shouldn't add fairfield on top of that. hobart and hofstra are going to stink to high heaven again. part of the scheduling game is seeing a year or two into the future. don't sign a home-and-home with a hofstra team that is going to be very bad for the foreseeable future. they can just drop some of these games, they dont have to replace them
this is what the schedule should look like
ACC x 4 (+ conf tourney)
Army
Cornell
Hopkins
Maryland
Princeton
A third Big Ten team
A Patriot League team
Albany
Hobart
Go 8-5 against that schedule and you're in. Maybe even 7-6. dont play anyone worse than albany/hobart. vermont wouldn't be a bad game to keep if you want to get it to 14 reg season games + playoffs. they're usually top 30 RPI and won't hurt you
I definitely agree with the above strategy. If you look at what the other ACC teams schedule in terms of quality, its pretty obvious Syracuse went overboard with "easier" competition last year. I looked at the "cupcakes" that all ACC teams scheduled last year and Syracuse and UNC stand out for having the most amount of "lesser" teams on the schedule. Syracuse especially.
Duke: Bellarmine (34), High Point (36), Air Force (25), Merrimack (48)
Notre Dame: Marquette (38), Cleveland State (56),
North Carolina: Mercer (54), High Point (36), Providence (46), Dartmouth (47)
UVA: Towson (41), Lafayette (49)
Syracuse: Albany (35), Holy Cross (73), Hofstra (58), St Bonaventure (67), Hobart (51)
It seems pretty clear that they have to at least try and schedule only two or so cupcakes, and that might already be filled by the likes of Albany and Hobart.
Jeremey is right that it's hard to predict these things in the future. I can't seem to find last years RPI, but I would not have expected Bellarmine to be ranked in the 30s this year, or Air Force at 25. That said it was pretty easy to tell that teams like Holy Cross and Hofstra were going to be on the lower end of things. And while St Bonaventure was not expected to be quite so bad, I don't think anyone would have expected them to be in the top half of RPI.
SU was in a different place at the start of last year than they are this year. They were very young and were trying to bounce back from an incredibly disappointing season. I get why they scheduled things the way they did (Gait had to be able to build confidence). That said, if they can grab a fogo I don't think there's any reason to think they can't take on a schedule as challenging as UVA or Notre Dame. I think you need some breaks in there but Syracuse can't have the same amount they had last year.