3 Arguments for Shafer

[GoSU96]

You keep saying this and I've never argued against it. I thought Marrone worked a miracle in 2009. He won against some good teams when not favored. A sign of a good HC. It's not about who has been better. I've never said that Shafer has been better.

I'm not trying to tear down Marrone. I'm trying to get people to see his time here accurately.

I've said that had Shafer gotten a season where the SOS was in the hundreds, we'd think of him in a much better light.

I've said that in their first 3 years, Marrone has 3 more wins vs winning FBS schools. Given where the started this is NOT a negative statement on Marrone but a way for the majority of the fans to give Shafer credit for 2013.

I could give a rip what the board thought prior to 2013. We were all feeling great after a "we're back 2012"... Vegas and SOS indicate we over performed, gutted out some tough wins first year in a new conference.

I've said that for 3 of the 4 Marrone years, we depended on a defense that was better than the offense. In 2010 we were 112 in total O and 32 in total D.

For me - that all makes it a very tough decision. Coyle could go either way and I wouldn't be surprised.

So your saying the respective records are nothing more than a factor of strength of schedule and the quality of the program where each took over is either equivalent or unimportant.

BTW the board had it nailed, 8 games with two swing games being PSU and Pitt, which were both really close. So maybe you should give a rip. Speak for yourself about what you were feeling, I know when I do those things it's not from the heart. The 2013 did not over perform, it met expectations, that was it.

 

[Crusty]

Quite honestly we are quibbling over two rather unremarkable tenures. When Shafer has finished his fourth year let's talk about it then.

 

[TheCusian]

So your saying the respective records are nothing more than a factor of strength of schedule and the quality of the program where each took over is either equivalent or unimportant. BTW the board had it nailed, 8 games with two swing games being PSU and Pitt, which were both really close. So maybe you should give a rip. Speak for yourself about what you were feeling, I know when I do those things it's not from the heart. The 2013 did not over perform, it met expectations, that was it.

Sigh. I know you're smarter than this.

I've given Marrone tons of credit for where it was to where he took it. It does matter.

I'm saying if you just look at w-l records without factoring in the quality of the wins or the difficulty of winning - you're dealing with incomplete information. That's fine if that's your thing.

I'm glad we all had it pegged. I respect the boards opinion very much. But when evaluating how good we really were or should have been I prefer actual numbers. Losing our entire offensive staff, NFL QB, top two recovers, a new HC, a new OC, a new DC - maybe Shafer deserves some credit? Context?!

 

[TheCusian]

Quite honestly we are quibbling over two rather unremarkable tenures. When Shafer has finished his fourth year let's talk about it then.

That's my point. Continuity has been achieved. 2012 was an outlier and any continuity from that season coached or was playing in the NFL in 2013.

The rest is all blah.

If you were happy with Marrone, Shafer's tenure shouldn't drive you that crazy. They haven't been that different. Better under Marrone, Go. But not that far off.

My expectations of where we can get are much higher than any of those years... And I'd bet I'm not alone.

 

[GoSU96]

Sigh. I know you're smarter than this.

I've given Marrone tons of credit for where it was to where he took it. It does matter.

I'm saying if you just look at w-l records without factoring in the quality of the wins or the difficulty of winning - you're dealing with incomplete information. That's fine if that's your thing.

I'm glad we all had it pegged. I respect the boards opinion very much. But when evaluating how good we really were or should have been I prefer actual numbers. Losing our entire offensive staff, NFL QB, top two recovers, a new HC, a new OC, a new DC - maybe Shafer deserves some credit? Context?!

Why not factor in the starting position of each job, unless you are saying that it was a complete reset. Because if it was, why is he here?

As for those season predictions, you think that this whole board ignored all of that? Newsflash, they didn't. And the majority of people had the quality of the opponents properly assessed going into the year.

And how come you never list what was coming back?

 

[TheCusian]

Why not factor in the starting position of each job, unless you are saying that it was a complete reset. Because if it was, why is he here? As for those season predictions, you think that this whole board ignored all of that? Newsflash, they didn't. And the majority of people had the quality of the opponents properly assessed going into the year. And how come you never list what was coming back?

I am factoring it in.

Honest question - what was the difference between the 2011 season's results and the 2012 season? What variable changed?

 

[donniesyracuse]

Honest question - what was the difference between the 2011 season's results and the 2012 season? What variable changed?

They picked up the pace of the offense.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Is that the one where we left a receiver uncovered? Smart time out if so.

Ya it worked out great instead of one there was two wide open guys after the timeout.

 

[GoSU96]

I am factoring it in.

Honest question - what was the difference between the 2011 season's results and the 2012 season? What variable changed?

Single biggest factor, the last piece of the puzzle, the run game finally got going.

Also the roster was deeper and healthier than the second half of the year before.

 

[TheCusian]

Single biggest factor, the last piece of the puzzle, the run game finally got going. Also the roster was deeper and healthier than the second half of the year before.

Not quite. We ran AND passed for an extra 1000 yards. We changed to an uptempo system and revamped the passing game. Rushing played a part, but the offense was very balanced. The offense clicked.

I notice you didn't say the defense. But that got better too. 2011 was not a great year for Shafer's D.

Now what's the difference between 2012 and 2013?

- defense got better
- lost starting QB
- lost HC
- lost OC, new OC
- SOS got harder
- lost top two WR
- new conference, new opponents
- still have good line play
- good running game
- passing falls off a cliff

Point is there was a lot of turnover on offense. The catalyst - the very thing that changed the most was gone.

If you're talking continuity ... It exists on D. But to expect that the trajectory would be the same when the difference makers from 2012 were all gone - was and is foolishness.

A mistake was made going with McDonald. That coincided with injuries in 2014. Lester/Dungey era has shown promise.

 

[donniesyracuse]

- SOS got harder

Real Time RPI has the 2012 SOS at 36 and 2013 at 47.

 

[Alsacs]

2012 we played
Southern California
Northwestern
@Missouri
@Minnesota
Stony Brook
@South Florida
@Rutgers
@Cincinnati
@Temple
UConn
Louisville
Pitt

10 BCS teams 1 FCS team and Temple
5H/6A/1N

2013 we played
Penn State
@Northwestern
Wagner
Tulane
Clemson
Boston College
Wake Forest
Pitt
@Florida State
@ NC State
@ Georgia Tech
@Maryland
10 P5 teams 1 AAC team 1 FCS team
6H/5A/1N

I don't think 2013 was tougher than 2012. It was tougher than our 2006-2011 schedules for sure but 2012 we overscheduled and had to do the 1 game deal at Missouri. That extra road game in 2012 makes that scheduler slightly tougher.

 

[Cusefan78]

We shouldn't be beating USF, UVA, Pitt? Shut the program down if the expectations are that low. Nobody and I mean nobody predicted we would go 0-3 in those games.

If in year 3 of SS we can't expect to beat any of these teams he should be gone immediately.

Only one of those games were we favored. All I'm saying is that you can't expect to win all those games. Should we have won them, yes but we didn't and the outcome in 2/3 of them are as predicted by smarter people them us.

 

[TheCusian]

Real Time RPI has the 2012 SOS at 36 and 2013 at 47.

Football Outsiders has it 2012: 54, 2013: 46

 

[TheCusian]

2012 we played Southern California Northwestern @Missouri @Minnesota Stony Brook @South Florida @Rutgers @Cincinnati @Temple UConn Louisville Pitt 10 BCS teams 1 FCS team and Temple 5H/6A/1N 2013 we played Penn State @Northwestern Wagner Tulane Clemson Boston College Wake Forest Pitt @Florida State @ NC State @ Georgia Tech @Maryland 10 P5 teams 1 AAC team 1 FCS team 6H/5A/1N I don't think 2013 was tougher than 2012. It was tougher than our 2006-2011 schedules for sure but 2012 we overscheduled and had to do the 1 game deal at Missouri. That extra road game in 2012 makes that scheduler slightly tougher.

Talk about getting caught up in the weeds. Close enough - and it was ancillary to my main point which is we lost the main reasons we did so well offensively.

I can't even fathom how anyone can see it differently.

 

[Alsacs]

Only one of those games were we favored. All I'm saying is that you can't expect to win all those games. Should we have won them, yes but we didn't and the outcome in 2/3 of them are as predicted by smarter people them us.

If we are going to judge our performance on Vegas point spreads and favorites we won't go bowling probably for the next 3 years.
I am not going to give a coach a pass based on the fact we are underdogs in all of these games. Coaching factors into a point spread. Nick Saban/Urban Meyer factor into point spreads.
We are in year 3 not year 1. DM beat a ranked team in each of his 4 years as SU HC. SS is 0-10 against ranked teams.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Football Outsiders has it 2012: 54, 2013: 46

so even by your numbers, there is not much of a difference

 

[TheCusian]

so even by your numbers, there is not much of a difference

No - it makes "stronger SOS" factual. And illuminates my point - we lost the passing and play calling from our very balanced attack and did so vs a tough schedule.

 

[donniesyracuse]

No - it makes "stronger SOS" factual. And illuminates my point - we lost the passing and play calling from our very balanced attack and did so vs a tough schedule.

by a whole 8 slots; big deal, and another source says the opposite. Your assertion that the schedule was tougher is weak. Own it

 

[TheCusian]

by a whole 8 slots; big deal, and another source says the opposite. Your assertion that the schedule was tougher is weak. Own it

My god. It's ancillary to the larger point. I almost didn't include it because it wasn't a strong point. If I'd known it would have caused a stir I wouldn't have freaking wrote it.

It doesn't matter if they were stronger or on par: the point remains. Expecting the same results when the very thing that made us explosive left was and is pure fantasy. 2013 was always going to be a drop in production even with Marrone/Hackett because of their failure to replace the skill players well enough. But they all left. Continuity in offense was always a pipe dream. Shafer made it worse by hiring McBubble.

 

[donniesyracuse]

My god. It's ancillary to the larger point. I almost didn't include it because it wasn't a strong point. If I'd known it would have caused a stir I wouldn't have freaking wrote it..

Relax, you fact-check people constantly to make sure an accurate picture is being painted. I think you said something like that in another thread. Your overall argument is much stronger without the claim that at best is barely-true.

 

[Consigliere]

If it were not for Shafer's considerable character and likeability we would want his head on a pitchfork by now.
For me he passes that all important test - would I want my son to play for him? He is easy to root for and to be proud of on many levels.

This is why this is such a gut wrenching time as many/most of us desperately want him to succeed.
At the end of the day however, the job requires winning games and that will ultimately determine his fate.
Go Shafer beat Louisville.

Finally. An opinion I can concur with.

The passion for Syracuse is undeniable. High achieving academics and character with virtually no off the field issues, A team that certainly plays hard every minute of every game and some exciting youth vs. 6 - 14 on the field in the last 20 games. Tough call for Coyle but in my mind, the positives should warrant one more season. Particularly since this team is two plays away from having 5 wins. Whigham plays the ball in OT against UVa and he intercepts it to end the game. Stop the fake punt against Pitt or even get the call for illegal man down field and we win that one. In that scenario half the threads on this board wouldn't even exist.

 

[Crusty]

Finally. An opinion I can concur with.

The passion for Syracuse is undeniable. High achieving academics and character with virtually no off the field issues, A team that certainly plays hard every minute of every game and some exciting youth vs. 6 - 14 on the field in the last 20 games. Tough call for Coyle but in my mind, the positives should warrant one more season. Particularly since this team is two plays away from having 5 wins. Whigham plays the ball in OT against UVa and he intercepts it to end the game. Stop the fake punt against Pitt or even get the call for illegal man down field and we win that one. In that scenario half the threads on this board wouldn't even exist.

Coyle has to decide for the long term and the staff has not shown him that they can win 8-10 games, which is what he is accustomed to at Boise.
What does he tell Kent is the reason to stay the course?

I think this chapter has come to an end.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Finally. An opinion I can concur with.

The passion for Syracuse is undeniable. High achieving academics and character with virtually no off the field issues, A team that certainly plays hard every minute of every game and some exciting youth vs. 6 - 14 on the field in the last 20 games. Tough call for Coyle but in my mind, the positives should warrant one more season. Particularly since this team is two plays away from having 5 wins. Whigham plays the ball in OT against UVa and he intercepts it to end the game. Stop the fake punt against Pitt or even get the call for illegal man down field and we win that one. In that scenario half the threads on this board wouldn't even exist.

But those things didn't happen.

 

[BomberOrange]

Seeing that we are at the bottom of the pecking order, who can we really get to coach if Shafer goes? Coyle has one hell of a decision awaiting him.