3 more wins will not be easy

Consigliere

All Conference
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
2,743
Like
7,058
We are not a bubble team this year. Why do people keep regurgitating this false talking point? We aren’t even close to the bubble. We’re safely in the field today by a comfortable margin - an 8 seed in most projections, with a shot at climbing to the 7 line after this weekend.

Unless we go 0-7 to finish this season, we will not be on the bubble. And if, by some crazy chance, we do end up there... we have the best road win in the country, among several other strong road wins.
Simple look at the P5 standings verifies that. ESPN's bubble watch today lists 38 teams as either "Should be in" 18 teams including Cuse) or "Work to do" (20 teams) and calculates 33 spots for these 38 teams. By that analysis only 5 of the 38 will fail to make the tournament. We could go 2 - 5 and make the field as a 10 seed.
That being said, I'm still hoping for a strong enough finish to get to a 6 and earn a Hartford - D.C. path to Minneapolis!

Bubble Watch: Good news for the ACC all over the bracket
 

dollarbill44

All American
Joined
Aug 28, 2011
Messages
5,264
Like
5,205
That's unrealistic no reason we can't win 4. Beat wake and lville get a split of the road games against clemson and nc state. And get a split against uva and duke.
I think the team's goal should be to go 1-0 seven times.
I will be ok with 3 wins, happy with 4 and ecstatic with 5+.
There are reasons we can't win 4, however, namely that there is another team trying to win the game and we aren't decidedly better than any of them, other than Wake.
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
10,760
Like
14,508
Speaking of the Big 10 I know Purdue is hot but I saw they were given a 3 seed by the mock tourney committee. That seemed a bit high
They are 11-5 in Q1/Q2 games, including 6 Q1 games. That is 3 seed worthy. (of course you have to buy the premise that the B10 is the best conference, and that is why they have 16 such games).

The B10 is the best in the numbers because they did really well in November and December,which determines so much in terms of seeding come March.
 

orange79

Internet Sleuth
Joined
Aug 20, 2011
Messages
23,500
Like
59,209
Strength of "conference record" is no longer a factor by the committee. We also have Duke (on the road), ND (on the road), Ohio St (on the road), at least 2 more road wins, Clemson at home (Q2), and several other Q2 wins.

10-8 with our remaining schedule should get us in safely. As long as one of the losses isn't to Wake. That would give us 3 Q1 wins and 5 Q2 wins. More than enough, I would think.
Ohio St winning at Indiana is a good Q1 win for them, and by extension, good for us as it will keep our road win against them a Q1 win.
 

Vorony

Scout Team
Joined
Nov 18, 2011
Messages
401
Like
794
"Unless we go 0-7 to finish this season, we will not be on the bubble." I mean that's just so far from being a rational thought I don't even know how to respond to it.
What exactly is irrational about this? I’m not saying we WILL go 0-7... I’m saying that IF we go 0-7, we’re in trouble. If you’re saying it’s irrational to think that we’ll actually go 0-7, then I agree with you.
 

Briancuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 16, 2014
Messages
20,827
Like
23,925
What exactly is irrational about this? I’m not saying we WILL go 0-7... I’m saying that IF we go 0-7, we’re in trouble. If you’re saying it’s irrational to think that we’ll actually go 0-7, then I agree with you.
If we go 2 and 5 were in trouble 0 and 7 and its nit.
 

Vorony

Scout Team
Joined
Nov 18, 2011
Messages
401
Like
794
If we go 2 and 5 were in trouble 0 and 7 and its nit.
I agree with this too - my 0-7 comment may have been hyperbole, but the fact remains that we aren’t sniffing the bubble right now. If 4 of those 5 losses are against Duke, UVA, Louisville, and UNC, then those won’t hurt us as much. But if we don’t take care of business against NC State and Wake, we could start feeling some heat. Clemson is a tossup.
 

Day2

WE WANT CHIMICHANGAS!!!
Joined
Jul 7, 2015
Messages
8,284
Like
10,166
We are not a bubble team this year. Why do people keep regurgitating this false talking point? We aren’t even close to the bubble. We’re safely in the field today by a comfortable margin - an 8 seed in most projections, with a shot at climbing to the 7 line after this weekend.

Unless we go 0-7 to finish this season, we will not be on the bubble. And if, by some crazy chance, we do end up there... we have the best road win in the country, among several other strong road wins.
Exactly. We're probably in with a 9-9 ACC record and one win in the ACC tourney, so long as we don't lose to Wake.

The committee is not going to parse our win against Duke. And none of our supposed bad losses are that bad. UConn was a rivalry game. Oregon was ranked at the time. Buffalo and ODU are in position to win their respective conferences. That leaves Georgia Tech...and I would be shocked if the committee kept us out over that one.
 

NorSyr66

Starter
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
Messages
1,110
Like
1,295
Wow...interesting thread. My head keeps returning to JB's comments "we only play one game at a time". That is the only way to look at this murder's row. Which makes me ask, why is the schedule always so back end loaded for us every year? Or is it just my view of things? I honestly think we are going to suprise a couple of these top end teams. Nearly every team has proved that on any given day the can be invincable or they can lay an egg. Right now all I want us to focus on is NC St. Must have this game. Plus we seem to be a better road team this year than at home. Lets Go Orange!
 

Lucid

Last One Picked
Joined
Feb 24, 2017
Messages
1,149
Like
2,432
Plus we seem to be a better road team this year than at home.
Yeah, which is weird. Maybe it's just me, but this team seems to have more "head" issues than most Cuse teams. They seem, for whatever reason, to lack confidence at the Dome.
 

RandygoCuse

All Conference
Joined
Sep 20, 2011
Messages
2,405
Like
2,528
Exactly. We're probably in with a 9-9 ACC record and one win in the ACC tourney, so long as we don't lose to Wake.

The committee is not going to parse our win against Duke. And none of our supposed bad losses are that bad. UConn was a rivalry game. Oregon was ranked at the time. Buffalo and ODU are in position to win their respective conferences. That leaves Georgia Tech...and I would be shocked if the committee kept us out over that one.
How does UConn being a rivalry game make it not a bad loss?
 

Cusefan0307

A very millennial millennial
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Messages
20,912
Like
39,253
Wow...interesting thread. My head keeps returning to JB's comments "we only play one game at a time". That is the only way to look at this murder's row. Which makes me ask, why is the schedule always so back end loaded for us every year? Or is it just my view of things? I honestly think we are going to suprise a couple of these top end teams. Nearly every team has proved that on any given day the can be invincable or they can lay an egg. Right now all I want us to focus on is NC St. Must have this game. Plus we seem to be a better road team this year than at home. Lets Go Orange!
TV.

The non-diehards don't really start watching College BBAll until after the Super Bowl.
 

Day2

WE WANT CHIMICHANGAS!!!
Joined
Jul 7, 2015
Messages
8,284
Like
10,166
How does UConn being a rivalry game make it not a bad loss?
Because those games tend to be a crapshoot regardless of record.

Fast forward to Selection Sunday. Let’s say the scenario plays out where we finish 9-9 and win one game in the conference tournament. ODU gets the CUSA bid and Clemson is at worst a bubble team. You think the committee is going to keep us out because we lost to UConn, Georgia Tech and otherwise a bunch of ranked and/or tournament teams? The win at Duke is far too valuable.
 

Newhouser

All Conference
Joined
Jan 20, 2015
Messages
2,614
Like
3,562
If we beat one of Duke, UVA or UNC then I could see us getting in with a 10-8 conference record. But I’d prefer to win one of those game AND at least 2 more.

Magic number is 20 wins, but 19 might get it done.

I think we find a way to win at NCSU this week, which is now a pivotal game for both teams.
If we beat one of those teams I think we are in at 9-9. The bubble is always awful - wins over 2 of the top 10 teams in the country puts above the car wreck known as the bubble.
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
10,760
Like
14,508
Wow...interesting thread. My head keeps returning to JB's comments "we only play one game at a time". That is the only way to look at this murder's row. Which makes me ask, why is the schedule always so back end loaded for us every year? Or is it just my view of things? I honestly think we are going to suprise a couple of these top end teams. Nearly every team has proved that on any given day the can be invincable or they can lay an egg. Right now all I want us to focus on is NC St. Must have this game. Plus we seem to be a better road team this year than at home. Lets Go Orange!
The best thing is that as fans we can play multiple games at a time.

As long as the players do not do the same.
 

Alsacs

When you elect a clown expect a circus
Joined
Aug 28, 2011
Messages
40,838
Like
45,919
Right now we are classic 8-9 game team.
We aren’t on the bubble but we aren’t a lock.
Win 3 games we are safely in.
Win 2 games we are in the first 4 range.
Win 4 games we are in 7 seed range
Win 5 games we are in the 4-5 seed range.
Any more it’s real good seed range.
 

RandygoCuse

All Conference
Joined
Sep 20, 2011
Messages
2,405
Like
2,528
Because those games tend to be a crapshoot regardless of record.

Fast forward to Selection Sunday. Let’s say the scenario plays out where we finish 9-9 and win one game in the conference tournament. ODU gets the CUSA bid and Clemson is at worst a bubble team. You think the committee is going to keep us out because we lost to UConn, Georgia Tech and otherwise a bunch of ranked and/or tournament teams? The win at Duke is far too valuable.
I think you're correct in that they'll look at who we beat and who we lost to. But are they going to really give less weight to a UConn loss because it's an important regular season game?
 

721Comstock

All American
Joined
Sep 1, 2015
Messages
4,910
Like
14,590
I have been trying to push it down to 10-8.

I think 9-9 is taking it a little too far. Plus that would be a disaster for our team. We are better then that.
Are we? Really?
How would that be a disaster?

We’re not great this year.
Occasionally great, but not remotely consistently good.

Finishing the year .500 in what is by FAR the toughest, deepest conference in the country, would not remotely be “a disaster”.

Our schedule is ridonkulously back-loaded.
We’re only likely to be favored in one of the next 7 games.
 

Online statistics

Members online
275
Guests online
620
Total visitors
895

Top Bottom