3 seed

[jncuse]

Every game result is now treated equally -- be it played in November or in the conference tournament. The belief that the committee treats confernce tourney games more importantly is not entirely correct. .The committee made that clear two years ago. The entire body of work. No more last 10 games

Conference tournaments in themselves are just a bunch of single games. Winning a conference tournament is not an extra bonus point

But conference tournaments inherently impact seedings significantly. Two reasons:

1) Winning the conference title in a good conference usually means at least 2, sometimes 3 top 50 wins, and 1 or 2 top 25 wins. And this happens over a few days, with all teams playing. So things can change quickly over the course of a week vs other teams.

2) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY. The games are usually on a neutral floor. Wins on a neutral or road floor, are given much more value by the committee. They are still all evaluated as single games, but three quality neutral wins means more than three regular season wins, So say a team is 4-6 vs top 50, and another one is 7-5 vs top 50. One team goes 3-0 the other goes 0-1. Now both teams are 7-6. Its likely the tourney winner at 7-6 has the better resume because more of those wins are on a road/neutal floor.

Perception is that winning the conference tourney earns you bonus points for seeds. That is not true. But the single game results from winning the tourney have a huge impact on a team resume.

 

[Alsacs]

Every game result is supposed to be treated equally -- from November to conference tournament. The belief that the committee treats confernce tourney games more importantly is incorrect (in theory anyway -- in practice there may be a bias) The committee made that clear two years ago. The entire body of work. No more last 10 games

Conference tournaments in themselves are just a bunch of single games. Winning a conference tournament is not an extra bonus point

But conference tournaments inherently impact seedings significantly. Two reasons:
1) Winning the conference title in a good conference usually means at least 2, sometimes 3 top 50 wins, and 1 or 2 top 25 wins. And this happens over a few days, with all teams playing. So things can change quickly over the course of a week.
2) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY. The games are usually on a neutral floor. Wins on a neutral or road floor, are given much more value by the committee. They are still all evaluated as single games, but three quality neutral wins means more than three regular season wins,

I respect your opinion JNCuse if SU wins @GU and wins the BET as the 5 seed what seed does SU get in the NCAA tournament? Assuming Florida wins the SEC tournament just for giggles.

 

[jncuse]

I respect your opinion JNCuse if SU wins @GU and wins the BET as the 5 seed what seed does SU get in the NCAA tournament? Assuming Florida wins the SEC tournament just for giggles.

I think Syracuse would get the 2 winning the BET, only if it beats the right teams along the way. In recent years, the BET has always been difficult for the top contenders to reach the semi's. In such a scenario it would be difficult. If they beat Georgetown and Louisville it would be gold. If its Cincy and Notre Dame in the semi and final, getting a 2 would be very difficult,

But the key is that it is neutral court wins. Neutral court wins allow you to motor by others more quickly.

If we beat Louisville and Georgetown in New York -- We have 2 road/neutral wins against 2 separate pod teams (Louisville / Georgetown). That has massive worth to a resume.

 

[bpo57]

That same arkansas team waxed a florida team you're so sure wont fall below the 2 line. What cuse game did we lose as bad as florida lost to arkansas?

Hey cord we could play that game all night long. Still love to hear how we're jumping over any of the top four B10 teams.

 

[bpo57]

SU winning out > FLA winning out. Also, Florida has to go to Rupp Arena this weekend and faces a desperate Kentucky. Also, Syracuse won @Arkansas and Florida lost @Arkansas. Florida is a great team on paper, but their resume would CLEARLY be inferior to Syracuse's resume if Syracuse won the BET. Florida's best road win is against whom? Florida State? Georgia? Florida has good wins against Wisconsin and Marquette at home, but the committee wouldn't give them a 2 seed over a Syracuse team winning @Georgetown and winning 4 games in 4 days in NYC. Get it through your head the B1G IS NOT GETTING 4 teams as 1/2 seeds. One of MSU or UM will be a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament the other team will be a 3 seed. UM doesn't have that strong a resume they are living on hype and don't think that lose at Penn State isn't a red herring. They beat MSU at home to basically cancel out that horrendous loss. If SU wins out these will be the 2 top lines Gonzaga, Duke, Indiana, Kansas, Miami, Louisville, MSU/UM, SU. This is moot though because I don't believe SU is going to win out.

Be careful what you wish for my friend. The only B10 team of those we could stay with is UM as they're talented but inconsistent. The other three would handle SU rather easily.

As for UF now home wins don't count? Ok.

Get it through your head that SU will not be seeded higher than any of those four B10 teams.

 

[bpo57]

I think Syracuse would get the 2 winning the BET, only if it beats the right teams along the way. In recent years, the BET has always been difficult for the top contenders to reach the semi's. In such a scenario it would be difficult. If they beat Georgetown and Louisville it would be gold. If its Cincy and Notre Dame in the semi and final, getting a 2 would be very difficult,

But the key is that it is neutral court wins. Neutral court wins allow you to motor by others more quickly.

If we beat Louisville and Georgetown in New York -- We have 2 road/neutral wins against 2 separate pod teams (Louisville / Georgetown). That has massive worth to a resume.

Everything u say is true you just left out one part. SU would need cooperation from the other top 8-10 teams. If they all perform reasonably well in their tourneys then there is no way for SU to climb over them to get a 2 seed.

 

[bpo57]

You realize that if we beat Georgetown on Saturday they won't win the regular season BE title it will most likely be Marquette and Louisville if they beat ND. Georgetown would be 13-5 vs Syracuse being 12-6 Georgetown's x2 opponents were Rutgers, Marquette, Syracuse, St. John's vs. Syracuse x2 opponents Villanova, Providence, Georgetown, Louisville. All of Syracuse's x2 opponents will complete the Big East season 9-9 in fact if PC beats UConn all of them will be above .500. Georgetown never went to Pitt, Louisville, and their tough road games were Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Marquette, and Villanova. The committee would analysis the Syracuse schedule and Georgetown schedule easily deduce that Syracuse's Big East schedule was clearly more difficult than Georgetown's and if we beat them on Saturday and win 1 game in New York at the BET we will be a 3 seed. If, we win out which I highly we will be a 2 seed and the fact you disagree is your opinion, but its not going to be true. The only Big East team that is clearly above Syracuse and will remain is Louisville. Georgetown and Marquette can be passed if Syracuse beats Georgetown and beats Pitt in the BET. If Syracuse won the BET it would clearly pass GU and Marquette. The B1G 3rd team isn't going to be above SU if SU wins the BET.

fla played five RPI top 40 teams OOC and SU played one. That matters.

 

[realorange]

The committee gives strong consideration to how a team is trending. They also consider what happened with a team that was without a key player (Southerland) during the season. If we win out And there is significant loss by teams at this point, above us, we are at the very least 50/50 to get a 2. 3 will be a lock in this situation.

 

[bpo57]

The committee gives strong consideration to how a team is trending. They also consider what happened with a team that was without a key player (Southerland) during the season. If we win out And there is significant loss by teams at this point, above us, we are at the very least 50/50 to get a 2. 3 will be a lock in this situation.

I actually agree with all of that cuz you also add in that we would need a little help. Absent that help it would be nearly impossible to get a 2 seed. Southerland issue is a good point although I am sure we're not the only top 25 team to have to play without a key guy for a stretch.

 

[Alsacs]

fla played five RPI top 40 teams OOC and SU played one. That matters.

Florida had to play a tough non-conference schedule the SEC is a joke this year. Florida hasn't dominated the SEC this year either they haven't won a road game against an NCAA tournament team. Our win @Providence is better than Florida win during conference play on the road. Again Florida, is likely to be seeded above SU because I don't believe SU will win the BET tournament, but the committee would give SU a 2 seed if they won on Saturday and then the BET. The 4 B1G teams will be seeded above SU if we don't win @GU or make it to the Semi-Finals in NY I agree. However, if we beat GU we have a better resume than Ohio State and if Michigan doesn't beat Indiana this weekend our resume would be on par with Michigan's. I don't like dealing in hypotheticals like this, but SU is likely to be a 4 seed, but if we beat Gtown I believe we will sneak into a 3 seed barring a bad loss in NYC.

 

[bpo57]

Agreed that the sec is nothing special although look out for Missouri as they could be a bit of a sleeper. But the BE has seen better days too. I think UF's resume is better than SU's to date but its not a lot better. Keep in mind they're like 6 in the RPI. RPI is a joke but these guys seem to take it seriously.

 

[baggerbob]

With this team seeding really doesn't matter, its whether they can shoot well enough to win their games. People wonder why JB is cranky this year, this is like the Georgetown teams, all bricklayers. The starting backcourt end game play is erratic at best, and our redshirt sub seems to still be redshirting. Missed our best shooter for 6 games, and the freshmen who turns out to be a player is a forward. Our 2 MCD centers one has a problem scoring, the other a problem to keep from being scored upon. Overall with the problems, if this teams wins 2 games in the dance they've overachieved.

 

[jncuse]

The committee gives strong consideration to how a team is trending. They also consider what happened with a team that was without a key player (Southerland) during the season. If we win out And there is significant loss by teams at this point, above us, we are at the very least 50/50 to get a 2. 3 will be a lock in this situation.

Actually they are strongly encouraged not to do this. Body of work concept (match in November is same as in March) is a core ranking principle for the past few years.

 

[jncuse]

Everything u say is true you just left out one part. SU would need cooperation from the other top 8-10 teams. If they all perform reasonably well in their tourneys then there is no way for SU to climb over them to get a 2 seed.

Your correct. Everything is not in a bubble. There may need to be a little chaos in other tourneys.

 

[Chris02M]

OK that's great that we would climb over gtown. What about KU, Duke, Gonz, FLA, IU, MSU, UM, OSU, Miami, Lousiville, etc. How are we climbing over those teams to secure a #2 not to mention even AZ and NM who have higher rpis than SU? You act as if all we have to do is win and who cares about what these other teams do. You're going to be sadly mistaken 10 days from now if SU does win the BET.

1-arizona is below us right now so thats not a problem.
2-new mexico is at the mercy of committee have no idea how high or low they will be but resume without looking closely looks strong.
KU WERE NOT PASSING THEM AS THERE GOING TO BE A 1,DUKE LIKEWISE IS GOING TO BE A 1,GONZAGA WILL EITHER BE A 1 OR 2 OUT WEST PENDING OTHER CONFERENCE TOURNEYS, FLORIDA PROBABLY AHEAD OF US BUT SEC IS CHARLES BARKLEY GOLF SWING TURRIBLE,INDIANA WILL LIKELY BE AHEAD OF US,MICHIGAN STATE IS RIGHT NOW A 3 COULD FALL FARTHER WITH POOR BIG TOURNEY,MICHIGAN COULD BE A 2 OR 3 OR LOWER AS THEY ARE WILDCARD WITH THE PENN STATE LOSS,OHIO STATE IS ON SAME LINE AS US RIGHT NOW SO WE COULD PASS THEM,MIAMI IS A 2 OR 3 NOW LOSE NEXT 2 AND WE COULD PASS THEM,LOUISVILLE WERE NOT PASSING.

LIKELY TOP 6 SEEDS(order tbd but as of now my rank):
Duke
Kansas
Indiana
Gonzaga(wcc hurts them and nothing major out of conference)
Louisville
Florida

last 2 spots are open for any of these teams:
New Mexico
Miami
Georgetown
Michigan
Michigan State
Marquette
Ohio State
Syracuse
Kansas State

And i know syracuse could also lose some games

 

[realorange]

Actually they are strongly encouraged not to do this. Body of work concept (match in November is same as in March) is a core ranking principle for the past few years.

I understand what you are saying and I probably shouldn't have used the word strongly, but you can't tell me they aren't very aware of a hot team. They also don't want to put themselves in a position where people are saying, "How the heck is that team only a 5 seed."

 

[jncuse]

I understand what you are saying and I probably shouldn't have used the word strongly, but you can't tell me they aren't very aware of a hot team. They also don't want to put themselves in a position where people are saying, "How the heck is that team only a 5 seed."

Dont disagree. Bias for such teams is possible... not supposed to be, but I can see it happening in certain situations.

 

[bpo57]

I understand what you are saying and I probably shouldn't have used the word strongly, but you can't tell me they aren't very aware of a hot team. They also don't want to put themselves in a position where people are saying, "How the heck is that team only a 5 seed."

Agreed. I know it's the stated policy that a game in November is the same as a game in March but it's really a stupid policy. We've all seen teams that, for better or worse, do not remotely resemble in March what they were in November. Having said that, they can talk about their policy all they want but it's human nature to be affected by more recent events.

 

[bpo57]

1-arizona is below us right now so thats not a problem.
2-new mexico is at the mercy of committee have no idea how high or low they will be but resume without looking closely looks strong.
KU WERE NOT PASSING THEM AS THERE GOING TO BE A 1,DUKE LIKEWISE IS GOING TO BE A 1,GONZAGA WILL EITHER BE A 1 OR 2 OUT WEST PENDING OTHER CONFERENCE TOURNEYS, FLORIDA PROBABLY AHEAD OF US BUT SEC IS CHARLES BARKLEY GOLF SWING TURRIBLE,INDIANA WILL LIKELY BE AHEAD OF US,MICHIGAN STATE IS RIGHT NOW A 3 COULD FALL FARTHER WITH POOR BIG TOURNEY,MICHIGAN COULD BE A 2 OR 3 OR LOWER AS THEY ARE WILDCARD WITH THE PENN STATE LOSS,OHIO STATE IS ON SAME LINE AS US RIGHT NOW SO WE COULD PASS THEM,MIAMI IS A 2 OR 3 NOW LOSE NEXT 2 AND WE COULD PASS THEM,LOUISVILLE WERE NOT PASSING.

LIKELY TOP 6 SEEDS(order tbd but as of now my rank):
Duke
Kansas
Indiana
Gonzaga(wcc hurts them and nothing major out of conference)
Louisville
Florida

last 2 spots are open for any of these teams:
New Mexico
Miami
Georgetown
Michigan
Michigan State
Marquette
Ohio State
Syracuse
Kansas State

And i know syracuse could also lose some games

1- "Arizona is below SU right now". really? Who sayd so? they have a higher rpi fwiw.
2- Have no idea why UNM has a #2 rpi but i assume that counts for something. Really a joke imo.
3- "Indiana will likely be ahead of us". Ya think?

Otherwise even in your scenario you illustrate how difficult it is for SU to get a #2 seed. There are only a couple of slots open and SU will need to leapfrog a whole bunch of teams to slide in there. Very unlikely unless everything broke their way in terms of other contenders.

 

[Garbs]

1- "Arizona is below SU right now". really? Who sayd so? they have a higher rpi fwiw.
2- Have no idea why UNM has a #2 rpi but i assume that counts for something. Really a joke imo.
3- "Indiana will likely be ahead of us". Ya think?

Otherwise even in your scenario you illustrate how difficult it is for SU to get a #2 seed. There are only a couple of slots open and SU will need to leapfrog a whole bunch of teams to slide in there. Very unlikely unless everything broke their way in terms of other contenders.

it is really not as unlikely as you make it sound

a lot of teams are going to lose over the next week

 

[Knicks411]

1- "Arizona is below SU right now". really? Who sayd so? they have a higher rpi fwiw.

Lunardi has us 15 and Arizona 20, fwiw.

 

[bpo57]

it is really not as unlikely as you make it sound

a lot of teams are going to lose over the next week

Sure some will lose but when? If MSU loses to IU in the B1G semis they're not going to be punished for it. Some of the teams mentioned are not moving out of the 1/2 line no matter what happens next week- KU, Duke, Gonz, IU to name a few.

 

[bpo57]

Lunardi has us 15 and Arizona 20, fwiw.

Arizona is an outlier and not central to my theory. Plenty of other teams that are ahead of us and likely to stay that way (be a 1 or a 2) regardless of next week's outcomes.

 

[Chris02M]

new mexico (and the entire mountain west conference is benefiting from every good team holding serve at home vs other contenders.if you use bpi which espn developed new mexico is 11 which factors in scores, pace of play, players missing

 

[Knicks411]

Sure some will lose but when? If MSU loses to IU in the B1G semis they're not going to be punished for it. Some of the teams mentioned are not moving out of the 1/2 line no matter what happens next week- KU, Duke, Gonz, IU to name a few.

thats fine, was just answering your question