4 Seed Now?

[TexanMark]

So with two wins are we a shaky 4 seed now? I gotta believe if we beat GTown on Fri we become a strong 4/Shaky 3. Winning it all I say a strong 3. Not sure if we can squeak into a 2 seed.

 

[tptcuse]

4 seed.

 

[Marsh01]

So with two wins are we a shaky 4 seed now? I gotta believe if we beat GTown on Fri we become a strong 4/Shaky 3. Winning it all I say a strong 3. Not sure if we can squeak into a 2 seed.

We are not a strong 4 seed but have moved onto the 4 seed line. Oklie State, Kansas State, Arizona and Marquette were all ahead of us on the matrix. Does our win and a Marquette loss move us ahead of them? Not so sure. Winning tonight would certainly cement the 4 seed. I still think if we lose tonight we are a coin flip 4/5 seed come Sunday.

 

[Yegorange]

4, 5? Who cares? Still playing a 1 in Sweet 16. Need to win both to slide into a 3. That would also knock G'town and L'ville out of 1's.

 

[GardenOrange]

3 seed is a big advantage over 4 or 5. unlike most, I think if we win the tournament we have a shot at 2. We will have beaten Pitt Gtown and Louisville in a row. That's hard to ignore. We need some help in other conference tournaments for it to happen. Georgetown seems to have our number this year in a big way though...

 

[Knicks411]

We are not a strong 4 seed but have moved onto the 4 seed line. Oklie State, Kansas State, Arizona and Marquette were all ahead of us on the matrix. Does our win and a Marquette loss move us ahead of them? Not so sure. Winning tonight would certainly cement the 4 seed. I still think if we lose tonight we are a coin flip 4/5 seed come Sunday.

Don't think we can move ahead of Marquette yet. They did finish 3 games ahead of us in the standings. Win tonight might take care of it

 

[kingtidge]

3 seed is a big advantage over 4 or 5. unlike most, I think if we win the tournament we have a shot at 2. We will have beaten Pitt Gtown and Louisville in a row. That's hard to ignore. We need some help in other conference tournaments for it to happen. Georgetown seems to have our number this year in a big way though...

Thinking ANYTHING past G-Town right now is folly...

I want scalps taken today...

 

[Marsh01]

Don't think we can move ahead of Marquette yet. They did finish 3 games ahead of us in the standings. Win tonight might take care of it

Yea we have not moved ahead of them but like you said if we win tonight and we will.

Plus for those people who say a 4/5 doesnt matter...Think again


Here’s some stats:
--The current 13 seed candidates (which the 4 seed plays) have an average RPI of 58.
--The current 12 seed candidates (which the 5 seed plays) have an avg. RPI of 46.
--That’s a big deal because the Cuse is 20-1 against teams outside the RPI Top 50 this year and only 5-7 against the teams inside the Top 50. I definitely want to play the former group in the first round.
--In NCAA Tourney history (since 1985 switch to 64 team field), the 5 seed beats the 12 seed in the first game 67% of the time, but the 4 beats the 13 seed 79% of the time.

 

[jncuse]

12 seed is typically the last at larges, and the mid-major confernce champions that would have been at-larges. The 13 seeds are typically not even in bubble discussion. Solid teams but a level down.

Their is typically a fairly large dividing line between 12 to 13 because of this factor. I think it has decreased in prior years... but still remember where the dividing line is for at larges. There is a reason for that.

As per Marsh's date above - 12 seeds have won about 50% more games than 13 seeds. Its not because of the difference in 4/5, but the difference between 12/13.

 

[jncuse]

We are clearly in the 4 discussion, but at the mercy of the committee. We win today, some of the other schools on the 4 line will lose, and we will make a nice gain.

 

[Marsh01]

As per Marsh's date above - 12 seeds have won about 50% more games than 13 seeds. Its not because of the difference in 4/5, but the difference between 12/13.

spot on regarding the 12/13 comparison

Looking at the matrix here are the 12 seeds in question

Tennessee
Kentucky
Belmont
Bucknell
Lasalle
Boise State

The 13 seeds are

Akron
Stephen F Ausitn
Valpo
Davidson

Big difference between a 12 and a 13 this year.

 

[Hoboken Cuse]

I think if we win the tournament we have a shot at 2...

The only scenario where we end up being a 2 seed involves several plane crashes.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Don't think we can move ahead of Marquette yet. They did finish 3 games ahead of us in the standings. Win tonight might take care of it

I think we have to win two more to move ahead of Marquette. If we had beaten them during the regular season it might be different, but doesn't the committee look more favorable for the regular season.

 

[jncuse]

I think we have to win two more to move ahead of Marquette. If we had beaten them during the regular season it might be different, but doesn't the committee look more favorable for the regular season.

Committee is supposed to treat every game as a single entity with similar worth from November 1 to March 17. One team having a better conference record should not be a factor. This is due to the difference SOS of certain schedules. Syracuse had a much tougher conference sched than Marquette.

After last night:
Marquette: 8 losses (one bad loss at Wisc Green Bay), 7-6 vs top 50, 10-7 vs top 100, 1 top 50 road or neutral win (at Pitt)
Syracuse: 8 losses (no bad losses), 5-7 vs top 50, 11-8 vs top 100, 3 top 50 road or neutral win (SD St, at Louisville, N Pitt)

The bolded part is important. Note that Marquette had many more shots at top 50 home wins - so a straight comparison of record is not the end game. Committee values road or neutral win much, much more.

I would put Syracuse ahead as of now on basis of road/neutral wins and not having any bad losses, but it could go either way.

Really, I don't expect the committee to waste any time comparing Syracuse to Marquette directly. Committee tends to focus on other things. Although, I guess they may focus hard on the teams on the 4/5 line to esnure they get the pods right.

 

[ImperialOrange]

We are not a strong 4 seed but have moved onto the 4 seed line. Oklie State, Kansas State, Arizona and Marquette were all ahead of us on the matrix. Does our win and a Marquette loss move us ahead of them? Not so sure. Winning tonight would certainly cement the 4 seed. I still think if we lose tonight we are a coin flip 4/5 seed come Sunday.

I'm fully expecting to get a 5 seed and be p*ssed off at the 12 seed the committee matches up with. Something like Iowa State in Kansas City.

 

[Marsh01]

I'm fully expecting to get a 5 seed and be p*ssed off at the 12 seed the committee matches up with. Something like Iowa State in Kansas City.

I have little doubt that if we lose tonight w will probably get a 5 seed and play Kentucky.

 

[ImperialOrange]

I have little doubt that if we lose tonight w will probably get a 5 seed and play Kentucky.

I thought that as well but I'm also taking into account that the committee will somehow put Kentucky as a 10 or 11 seed in Dayton, Auburn Hills or Lexington.

 

[jncuse]

If we lose tonight and we get a 5, I don't think its reason to get angry. Its a toss up between severak schools at the 4 line, and somebody has to be left out.

Only thing we can do is win and take it out committee control.

 

[Marsh01]

I thought that as well but I'm also taking into account that the committee will somehow put Kentucky as a 10 or 11 seed in Dayton, Auburn Hills or Lexington.

They cant play in Lexington but I agree that they could go to Auburn Hills or Dayton

 

[jncuse]

I thought that as well but I'm also taking into account that the committee will somehow put Kentucky as a 10 or 11 seed in Dayton, Auburn Hills or Lexington.

They can't put them in Lexington. At 10/11/12. it just becomes hard sometimes to place a team on the bracket and follow the rules. I think they can end up anywhere. Committee knwos the fans will follow them to any location. And Kentucky needs to take care of Vanderbilt today.. a team which has been playing much better as of late.

 

[ImperialOrange]

They cant play in Lexington but I agree that they could go to Auburn Hills or Dayton

Duh, got Lexington and L'Ville mixed up in my head. Typed the correct location but was thinking games were in L'ville in my head.

 

[All4SU]

--In NCAA Tourney history (since 1985 switch to 64 team field), the 5 seed beats the 12 seed in the first game 67% of the time, but the 4 beats the 13 seed 79% of the time.

That's really an incredible stat.

 

[jekelish]

NOW we are guaranteed a 4 seed. Win tomorrow and I think we are a 3 seed.

 

[Orangemen]

NOW we are guaranteed a 4 seed. Win tomorrow and I think we are a 3 seed.

Win tomorrow, and 3 is a lock.

UConn went from a 9 to a 3, I feel fairly confident we could got from a 5 to a 3.

 

[JoeSU]

Wait, we're not on the bubble?