8 games in -- What have we learned? What questions linger? | Syracusefan.com

8 games in -- What have we learned? What questions linger?

billsin01

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Also known as the 2/3 pole evaluation for those who enjoy forced, nonsensical sexual innuendo. Regardless, a breakdown of this team and this program through the 8 games this season while trying not to get too excited about a couple wins over a couple of not-very-good teams. I'll start with Nassib and paraphrase the immortal Dennis Green ...

Ryan Nassib is who we thought he was
It's hard to start the eval of this team anywhere other than at QB where Nassib has been a lightning rod in his time on the Hill. His supporters will point to his impressive overall numbers and say Nassib is great. His detractors will point to turnovers or missed deep balls or check downs or passes lacking touch and say he blows. At the end of the day, Nassib is a good, not great QB. That's it. This endless debate is pointless. Take the last two games -- probably the best two-game stretch offensively in the past, what, 8-10 years? Nassib was great. But, we also played very well on specials, ran the ball for around 225 a game and got enough plays from our defense (obviously far better vs. UConn). Nassib certainly deserves some credit, but the point is that improved line play, specials, etc. are much bigger factors.

New for 2012! Special Teams that don't make you cover your eyes!
Fisher's not eliciting memories of Pat O'Neil but he's been better (a long of 51 and two inside the 20 vs. USF, two inside the 20 vs. UConn, 42 yds/punt, 2 inside the 20 vs. RU). Krautman makes things interesting but he's 4/5 since missing two vs. RU. Norton may be the single biggest addition to this team outside of Sales' return this year. Desir has made an impact in the PR game. Eskridge blocked a kick. There remains room for improvement here, but there are at least signs of life from this unit the past few games.

OL has come around a bit
The most troubling unit on this team, for my money, the past few years has been the OL. It was just always worrisome when your HC was considered an OL guru and your OL coach was considered arguably your best recruiter and yet your OL play was, well, below average at best. At times it's been downright ugly. The past couple games have been excellent running the ball and good in pass pro. In general, line play has been inconsistent, but it at least appears to be getting better. As Go pointed out, 3-1 since Pugh's return. Good test to see if they play as well vs. Cincy/L'ville.

The beginnings of a youth movement
With Nassib, Sales, Lemon, Pugh, Macky, Chibane, Sharpe, Bromley, S. Thomas, Spurill, etc. leading the way, the vets have been leading this team. But as this year has gone on we've seen a few more of DM's young guys sprinkled in. Broyld is a very intriguing player, Smith has been solid at RB, Clark's made a couple plays, Desir/Reddish/Eskridge look really solid in the defensive backfield, D. Davis is going to be really good, IMO, at OLB and has made quite a few plays already this year. MPB is contributing, Crume had some nice plays late vs. USF. Still looking for a few more playmakers, but we're starting to see a few more contributions.

DM is safe for 2013
I'm not really convinced this was much of a question prior to the season but I think getting 5 wins makes it an absolute no-brainer. Six would be a decent season given the schedule and 7/8 would be legit progress and obviously we're discussing how long an extension he should get. But realistically, I think DM is back for 2013 and rightfully so.

This new offense is better regardless of personnel
There is a contingent on this board who feel like the only day of the football calendar that matters is the first Tuesday of February (or whenever National LOI Day is each year). I don't buy that and I think part of the reason is what you're watching on the field. this team, with a pretty solid schedule, is averaging 460+ a game. That's ~100 ypg better than last season IIRC with very similar personnel. It's a new offense (tempo is a huge part of it, read option, more shots downfield, etc.) and it's paid dividends. That's great to see and speaks to DM's willingness to change things up if needed.

What questions linger

How good are UConn/USF?
For this program, simply winning those two games is excellent and I'm not taking anything away from being 3-1 at this point in conference. That said, we still don't really know who we've beat (Pitt has won four of it's past six but that's not a murderer's row, even Va Tech). How this team does vs. UL, Cincy and Mizzou will be really interesting to watch. I actually think taking 2 of 3 in that stretch is absolutely possible. We'll see, obviously.

Recruiting remains something of a mystery
I don't buy into stars for the most part and think you have to be pretty patient with a new coach's recruiting. I also think there are some positive signs out of DM's classes and this next one seems to have some pretty solid commits. That said, it's currently pretty small and there appears to be some kids wavering, at least judging by that RU weekend. I'm not commenting positively or negatively as much as simply pointing out that we lose some really productive players after this season -- Nassib/sales/lemon/pugh (potentially)/sharpe/S. Thomas ... we are going to need even more of these young kids stepping up in big roles. we'll see how this works going forward.

In-game decisions
Not my favorite part of DM's tenure so far, ranking just below STs in terms of frustration. But I like that we were consistently aggressive in the second half vs. USF and really executed well in the 2-minute drill. Here's hoping that's a new trend going forward.
 
Only question that really matters is - can we win in November? - since we are 2-10 the past three years under Marrone.

Cheers,
Neil
 
Great work, Bills.

The last two games have helped a lot, but Nassib has the right career trendline. Yards, yards per attempt, attempts, completions, completion percentage, rating, TDs are all up or projected end this season up from last season.
 
Only question that really matters is - can we win in November? - since we are 2-10 the past three years under Marrone.

Cheers,
Neil
If nothing else, the team is deeper and isn't gassed this year, and we are actually doing pretty well for injuries. Esepcially given how hard we hit.
 
Sorry, I had to stop reading after the Nassib eval. You make it sound like we win inspite of him and others should get far more credit. Don't agree at all and neither do the people that matter.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2
 
Sorry, I had to stop reading after the Nassib eval. You make it sound like we win inspite of him and others should get far more credit. Don't agree at all and neither do the people that matter.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

I think my entire point is that Nassib isn't going to win or lose games alone for us. It's one thing if you have mike vick back there or a big-time NFL guy like bradford or someone. Those guys can do a lot of things on their own.

My only point was the improved offensive performance has to do with a bunch of factors and the losses that everyone loves to pin on Nassib aren't his fault alone.

It's been my stance for two years and I honestly don't understand what argument there is against it. You think he's a first-rounder that is singlehandedly propelling this offense to 500 yds/game? Or you think his lack of touch on throws occasionally or poor read are the only things keeping us from a BCS game? He's a good, solid QB who looks faarrrrr better when he's got some solid targets and a good OL.
 
DM is safe for 2013
I'm not really convinced this was much of a question prior to the season but I think getting 5 wins makes it an absolute no-brainer. Six would be a decent season given the schedule and 7/8 would be legit progress and obviously we're discussing how long an extension he should get. But realistically, I think DM is back for 2013 and rightfully so.

Agreed.
 
Which team will show up in any given half ? This team is like the psycho ex-GF. When it's good it's really good and when it's bad it's really really bad.
 
Good post, Bills.

I don't know that it is "offense regardless of personnel" as much as an revamped style, borrowing heavily (many colleges have been running no huddle, shot gun, spreads, up tempo), and executed by senior leaders and juniors who have developed in the program. Lots of credit to Nassib, Smith, Lemon, Sales and an improved OL. Credit to the OC and HC.

Youth movement -- not really. The new power comes from juniors (or those with junior status). Smith, Wales, West, Hickey, Davis, Spruill, Lyn, Anderson, Bromley. And a handful of sophs. Lots of other teams get more from true frosh and RFs.

Recruiting -- you are being kind. We are way behind our rivals in 2013 recruiting and have a lot of make-up work to do. Not many prospects have been looking our way. Fortunately, two big wins and the opportunity to make a mark in November might change things. At a minimum, the program has some new buzz.
 
1st, It's not a new offense. It's just being run faster. 2nd, recruiting is only a mystery because we are waiting on many recruits with numerous BCS offers. You want to recruit with the big boys, you have to sweat it out a bit. 3rd, completely agree with Bees on your stance against Nassib.

I think my entire point is that Nassib isn't going to win or lose games alone for us.

That last drive there was exactly the thing you said he doesn't do. He was a field general, found the open receiver quickly, and was able to put it where the defense wasn't. That pass to Lemon was perfect. The pass to Sales was perfect. His poise in the second half being down 20 and then being down 9 was incredible.
 
Recruiting -- you are being kind. We are way behind our rivals in 2013 recruiting and have a lot of make-up work to do. Not many prospects have been looking our way. Fortunately, two big wins and the opportunity to make a mark in November might change things. At a minimum, the program has some new buzz.

This is incorrect, we have offers out to many guys who have us high on their list but aren't going to commit until later in the recruiting window. Look at Marrone's track record in January/February. He's landed quite a few high profile guys. When players have multiple BCS offers, you actually have to work to get them to commit. We aren't recruiting many single-offer guys anymore. Not to mention we're low on scholarships for this season.
 
1st, It's not a new offense. It's just being run faster.
You are as likely to convince some of us of this as we are to convince you that it is a new offense.
 
You are as likely to convince some of us of this as we are to convince you that it is a new offense.
well i mean, not to sound condescending but i've seen the playbook, and the people saying otherwise haven't seen it.
 
1st, It's not a new offense. It's just being run faster. 2nd, recruiting is only a mystery because we are waiting on many recruits with numerous BCS offers. You want to recruit with the big boys, you have to sweat it out a bit. 3rd, completely agree with Bees on your stance against Nassib.

That last drive there was exactly the thing you said he doesn't do. He was a field general, found the open receiver quickly, and was able to put it where the defense wasn't. That pass to Lemon was perfect. The pass to Sales was perfect. His poise in the second half being down 20 and then being down 9 was incredible.

Holy Christ. Seriously? My stance against Nassib? I said he was a good QB just not a great one. I'm not "standing against" anyone. A lot of good QBs have a ton of success in college FB Kevin McDougal and Kevin Mason come to mind. Regardless, my only point is that he's not an AA type. I mean, he's really solid but he struggles a bit moving within the pocket, is an OK but not terribly dangerous runner, and isn't the purest passer in terms of touch, accuracy and consistency. That's not to say he's bad in any of those areas, just not elite. And that late drive was a thing of beauty. I've always liked the kid's leadership, perhaps not as vocal as some but he never complained despite taking 90000 hits the last three years. Tough, smart kid who appears to be a really good leader. That's a great trait.

And as for the option -- we are running a lot of read-option which I don't ever remember us running before. We're also attacking downfield in the passing game far more often.

But, regardless, changing the entire tempo at which an offense is played inherently makes it a new offense. you think defensive coordinators are preparing for us the same way this year as they were last year?
 
well i mean, not to sound condescending but i've seen the playbook, and the people saying otherwise haven't seen it.

If you weren't running plays in the playbook and now you are running them, that is also different. If you want to make the argument that most of the plays are the same, fine, but the entire nature of this offense has changed dramatically, largely due to the tempo.
 
This is incorrect, we have offers out to many guys who have us high on their list but aren't going to commit until later in the recruiting window. Look at Marrone's track record in January/February. He's landed quite a few high profile guys. When players have multiple BCS offers, you actually have to work to get them to commit. We aren't recruiting many single-offer guys anymore. Not to mention we're low on scholarships for this season.

Yes, Marrone has typically done pretty well in December - January, and there are hopes he can do that again.
We have a very, very short list of offers to top prospects who have visited and still are looking at SU (Smith, Officer, Curtis, EO). We have other offers out to prospects who haven't visited, and who have a lot of other suitors . Some of our rivals have nearly filled their classes; some have garned at least a few commits in the past 5 or 6 weeks. You can look at commit lists for BC, Pitt, Rutgers, West Virginia and the ACC teams. We have work to do.
 
If you weren't running plays in the playbook and now you are running them, that is also different. If you want to make the argument that most of the plays are the same, fine, but the entire nature of this offense has changed dramatically, largely due to the tempo.
We're still running staples of the old offense through, we ran the bootleg to the TE 2 or 3 times against USF. Running plays are largely the same. We ran a few of the option runs against Rutgers back in 2009. You're just seeing execution now. A deep pass to a WR wasn't possible for the last 3 years, we didn't have the personnel until this season.
 
Good post, Bills.

I don't know that it is "offense regardless of personnel" as much as an revamped style, borrowing heavily (many colleges have been running no huddle, shot gun, spreads, up tempo), and executed by senior leaders and juniors who have developed in the program. Lots of credit to Nassib, Smith, Lemon, Sales and an improved OL. Credit to the OC and HC.

Youth movement -- not really. The new power comes from juniors (or those with junior status). Smith, Wales, West, Hickey, Davis, Spruill, Lyn, Anderson, Bromley. And a handful of sophs. Lots of other teams get more from true frosh and RFs.

Recruiting -- you are being kind. We are way behind our rivals in 2013 recruiting and have a lot of make-up work to do. Not many prospects have been looking our way. Fortunately, two big wins and the opportunity to make a mark in November might change things. At a minimum, the program has some new buzz.

Absolutely to the credit to the players. My point was that we didn't go from "no talent" to "really good talent" in a year. Scheme makes a difference. I agree on the youth movement point but was merely trying to point out that some of DM's recruits are starting contribute in more meaningful ways. That includes some juniors like West and Smith who we haven't seen much of before as well as a few of the younger kids like Broyld, Clark (new, I guess, though not young), MPB, Eskridge, Reddish, etc. You are right this has been mostly upper-class driven, but there are some younger/newer names popping up as this season has gone along.
 
I agree it's not a new offense at all, it just isn't. It's the same offense that Marrone has been trying to run since day one, we have cut back on it it at times, ran more with it at times tweaked, etc but is is 100% the same offense. Abolsutely 100% agree, it's the same offense it has been since Hackett/ Marrone went to work together.
 
We're still running staples of the old offense through, we ran the bootleg to the TE 2 or 3 times against USF. Running plays are largely the same. We ran a few of the option runs against Rutgers back in 2009. You're just seeing execution now. A deep pass to a WR wasn't possible for the last 3 years, we didn't have the personnel until this season.

We ran the option a few times vs. RU back in 09? I have no idea if you are right or not but that hardly makes it part of the offense the last three seasons. And Sales and Lemon were both on the roster in 10 and we still didn't push the ball down the field. But really we can disagree on plays. I'll even defer to you if you've seen the playbook. It's all good.

BUT, you don't prepare for an offense that is in an opponent's playbook, you prepare for what you see. And any DC in the world will tell you that they are preparing for a much different SU offense -- even if it's the same exact plays -- this season due to the tempo.
 
I agree it's not a new offense at all, it just isn't. It's the same offense that Marrone has been trying to run since day one, we have modified it at times, tweaked, etc but is is 100% The same offense

Tempo is an absolute game-changer. If Oregon comes in and runs the exact same plays but huddles up before each play and takes the clock down to 5 on every snap, you are not facing the same offense.
 
Tempo is an absolute game-changer. If Oregon comes in and runs the exact same plays but huddles up before each play and takes the clock down to 5 on every snap, you are not facing the same offense.
Yup.

This "is the offense really new?" discussion is even dumber than threads on man vs. zone.
 
Yup.

This "is the offense really new?" discussion is even dumber than threads on man vs. zone.

True -- and the basketball analogy is similar even in terms of the type of offense. Are we running the same offense with our teams now that we did back in the J Hart days? I have no idea though I'd guess the sets are similar. But our length and athleticism has created so many more unsettled situations the past few years and Jardine/Rautins and, I'm assuming MCW, are so adept at getting this team out and running that we are a completely different team "offensively."
 
We ran the option a few times vs. RU back in 09? I have no idea if you are right or not but that hardly makes it part of the offense the last three seasons. And Sales and Lemon were both on the roster in 10 and we still didn't push the ball down the field. But really we can disagree on plays. I'll even defer to you if you've seen the playbook. It's all good.

BUT, you don't prepare for an offense that is in an opponent's playbook, you prepare for what you see. And any DC in the world will tell you that they are preparing for a much different SU offense -- even if it's the same exact plays -- this season due to the tempo.

Can't throw down the field when the QB's on his ass after 3 seconds.
 

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