9:00 Wednesday Night - | Page 3 | Syracusefan.com

9:00 Wednesday Night -

We're getting no help this week. We could be in some real trouble if some of these teams keep winning. Most of these bubble teams have very few quality wins but recency bias could be persuasive.

To be safe, win the GT game and then beat Miami or UVA.
 
pearl31 said:
well, considering you don't know what you're talking about...
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We have 6 wins against the top 50, they have two, we beat them, if we win on sat and they lost at Vpi, we would be two games ahead of them in the conference, we are so far ahead of them they would need a telescope to see us.
 
Briancuse said:
They are 1-9 against the top 50, they will lost at Vpi, I'm not worried about them.
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They are ahead of us in 3 of the 4 primary factors (thankfully we lead the most important one).

Wake has the advantage in rankings, road wins, and OOC SOS. Now it depends on how much the committee wnats to equalize things in terms of top 50 wins. Would they have beat Monmouth at home? Would they have beat Syracuse home.

Maybe they won't play the what if game... but who knows exactly what they will do. Either way they are closing the gap quite a bit. And if they win one more ACC tourney game than us? There still quite a bit more meaningul ACC games to be played.
 
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jncuse said:
They are ahead of us in 3 of the 4 primary factors (thankfully we lead the rest).

Wake has the advantage in rankings, road wins, and OOC SOS. Now it depends on how much the committee wnats to equalize things in terms of top 50 wins. Would they have beat Monmouth at home? Would they have beat Syracuse home.

Maybe they won't play the what if game... but who knows exactly what they will do. Either way they are closing the gap quite a bit. And if they win one more ACC tourney game than us? There still quite a bit more meaningul ACC games to be played.
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They have no good ooc wins, we have Monmouth, I know they are a Maac team but they are a top 50 win. We are 6-7 against the top 50, they are 2-9, thats a huge difference, if we win sat, and they lose at Tech, we will finish two games ahead in the standings, and we beat them. Wake probably needs two wins to get in.
 
Briancuse: I mean no offense, but every year it's the same thing with you. You have absolutely no idea how to evaluate teams. No one is saying Wake is in for sure, same with Illinois, but they are certainly in the mix and one or both of these teams can hurt our chances.

And top 50 wins is not the only thing that is looked at.
 
jncuse said:
They are ahead of us in 3 of the 4 primary factors (thankfully we lead the rest).

Wake has the advantage in rankings, road wins, and OOC SOS. Now it depends on how much the committee wnats to equalize things in terms of top 50 wins. Would they have beat Monmouth at home? Would they have beat Syracuse home.

Maybe they won't play the what if game... but who knows exactly what they will do. Either way they are closing the gap quite a bit. And if they win one more ACC tourney game than us? There still quite a bit more meaningul ACC games to be played.
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If they use road wins heavily, we're in trouble. Wake has 6 road wins, though the 4 OOC ones are pretty trashy (UNC greensboro, Charleston, UTEP and Richmond). There's not much value there other than propping up the computer numbers.
 
iommi said:
Briancuse: I mean no offense, but every year it's the same thing with you. You have absolutely no idea how to evaluate teams. No one is saying Wake is in for sure, same with Illinois, but they are certainly in the mix and one or both of these teams can hurt our chances.

And top 50 wins is not the only thing that is looked at.
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None taken, I like a good debate. I know a good team when I see them, I just don't understand why everyone is getting worked up over Wake. The Metrics just don't add up, if they win at Tech this weekend, we can start worrying, I really don't think they are as close as some people thing.
 
Briancuse said:
Illinois resume isn't that impressive.
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It's not at our level yet. But it could get close enough. There is always committee judgment and we have so many warts, that I want as few teams as possible that are sniffing around.
 
Jasoncuse said:
If they use road wins heavily, we're in trouble. Wake has 6 road wins, though the 4 OOC ones are pretty trashy (UNC greensboro, Charleston, UTEP and Richmond). There's not much value there other than propping up the computer numbers.
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Agreed - they are double counting on the primary factors (road wins and OOC SOS) by playing against decent but not good teams on the road (Richmond, Charleston).

But the Committee loves P5 teams that will play away games against anybody. (sort of a disadvantage for the high attendance P5 schools where that doesn't make sense., but then again they have quite a few inherent advantages.
 
jncuse said:
It's not at our level yet. But it could get close enough. There is always committee judgment and we have so many warts, that I want as few teams as possible that are sniffing around.
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Yeah, their resume is quite weak but more teams hovering is not good. Let's hope Rutgers beats them this weekend. LOL yeah right.
 
Briancuse said:
None taken, I like a good debate. I know a good team when I see them, I just don't understand why everyone is getting worked up over Wake. The Metrics just don't add up, if they win at Tech this weekend, we can start worrying, I really don't think they are as close as some people thing.
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dude. The metrics DO add up and it's getting tiresome how you somehow can't see it, even after it was explained to you above.
after tonight, whether you can see it or not, we are essentially neck and neck with Wake - as jn was saying, they're one of those bubble teams from below that has now risen up and could quite easily, if the committee goes a certain way with things, edge us out
 
jncuse said:
Agreed - they are double counting on the primary factors (road wins and OOC SOS) by playing against decent but not good teams on the road (Richmond, Charleston).

But the Committee loves P5 teams that will play away games against anybody. (sort of a disadvantage for the high attendance P5 schools where that doesn't make sense., but then again they have quite a few inherent advantages.
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I take it back, Richmond is decent. Greensboro and Charleston are good at their level but those road W's should add nothing to their resume.

Sometimes, I wish we'd play a roadie or two against weak competition (Siena or Canisius, perhaps) just to add to our computer numbers to game the system a bit. It probably won't be happening any time soon though.
 
pearl31 said:
dude. The metrics DO add up and it's getting tiresome how you somehow can't see it, even after it was explained to you above.
after tonight, whether you can see it or not, we are essentially neck and neck with Wake - as jn was saying, they're one of those bubble teams from below that has now risen up and could quite easily, if the committee goes a certain way with things, edge us out
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Ya if the committee goes the way of complete stupidity. We have 4 more top 50 wins, which is a lot. If we win on Sat, and they lose, we would finish two games ahead of them in the standings, that is usually a pretty big factor, and we beat them head to head. Just because they won at Richmond or Utep means they are ahead of us.
 

Bubble update (11:15p, ET). LAST FOUR IN: Xavier, Cal, USC, Wake Forest. FIRST FOUR OUT: Vandy, Ga Tech, Rhode Island, K-State.
 
We have to win the next two, period. Then we will still be sweating. No OOC, or road wins. Our OOC wins saved us last year. One win isn't going to do it, in my mind. Bubble teams are doing well, as we just have four home wins to rely on.

Our top 50 record is good, but it may not do it. Beat GaTech, and VPI. I'd rather throw them on the resume than another over Miami. Pull off a miracle versus UNC, and let's just worry about seeding. JB knows Roy, but their talent is insane. It's not impossible. If it was, we shouldn't even care about sneaking in if we don't think we can beat a top team. No more road games from here on out. Cuse fans will be in full force. These guys will do it.
 
Kansas St pulls it out against TCU.

Another resume with so many bad things in it, and one massive oddity.

They are 3-8 vs top 50, and 5-10 vs top 100. Not good

But 4 of those 5 top 100 wins are on the road, including road wins at #6 Baylor, #30 Oklahoma St, TCU (Bubble Team) and Colorado St. That is really good. The odd thing though is that they lost to those 3 teams above at home (the reverse series split)

So is 1-1 better against a team when you win on the road? Will the committee recognize this anomaly?

They are still comfortalby behind us in my view, but we have another team that may not need to do that much more to potentially catch us next week.
 
Briancuse said:
Ya if the committee goes the way of complete stupidity. We have 4 more top 50 wins, which is a lot. If we win on Sat, and they lose, we would finish two games ahead of them in the standings, that is usually a pretty big factor, and we beat them head to head. Just because they won at Richmond or Utep means they are ahead of us.
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OMG. First off, the committee often goes the way of stupidity. Second, please drop your top 50 wins thing, it's not the only thing the committee looks at but you keep bringing it up over and over again. Third, you keep bringing up conference standings when that's not a factor. Yet you just said it's usually a big factor.

Let me add this: this thread is designed to show who we need to be concerned with and who we need to root against. So...did you think all of these results tonight, especially Illinois and Wake winning, could be framed as a positive thing? If you think Wake winning is a positive because they might become a top 50 win, don't you realize that them becoming a top 50 team only helps their own cause?

I knew it was a mistake getting involved here (and thanks to jn and everyone for their work but I was better off lurking).
 
iommi said:
OMG. First off, the committee often goes the way of stupidity. Second, please drop your top 50 wins thing, it's not the only thing the committee looks at but you keep bringing it up over and over again. Third, you keep bringing up conference standings when that's not a factor. Yet you just said it's usually a big factor.

Let me add this: this thread is designed to show who we need to be concerned with and who we need to root against. So...did you think all of these results tonight, especially Illinois and Wake winning, could be framed as a positive thing? If you think Wake winning is a positive because they might become a top 50 win, don't you realize that them becoming a top 50 team only helps their own cause?

I knew it was a mistake getting involved here (and thanks to jn and everyone for their work but I was better off lurking).
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Did you hear the committee chair last year? When they asked why we got in, the first thing he said was top 50 wins. Beating good teams is the number one factor in getting in. I was rooting for Msu, I still think our resume is better than Illinois. I'm getting killed for this, but I am telling you I don't think Wake is as close as you think, If Wake would have lost a couple of games, they would have dropped out of the top 50, costing us a top 50 win, so it isn't all that bad.
 
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