A tale of two basketball programs (aka, a study in contrasts)

[JeffCuse]

Last night was weird for me. I settled in at 9pm ET to watch Syracuse basketball. Why? I really don't know. But I did. And I was actually pleasantly surprised with the first half performance. Possibly the best first half of the season by many metrics. Certainly passed the eye test. I even tweeted as much. Could they hold on?

Nope.

Same old same old. A 2nd half in which we just didn't adjust. We were outcoached at the half, again, and you could feel it just slipping away the whole time. Despondent, but unsurprised.

Then I turned on the University of Arizona game. Many of you know my son goes there (Bear Down) so it's become a 2nd team of sorts, and one which I pay close attention to. It was like night and day.

Arizona made a coaching change a few years ago, and it was a sudden coaching change because Sean Miller was a moron. And this is a University that has been in financial duress for many years (google it if you want...they are broke). And given the sudden nature of the change, and the fact this was not an expense they had planned for (or could afford), they had every opportunity and obligation to go cheap. Very cheap. And probably would have been justified. Yet, they didn't. They didn't stay in house. In the family. No, they hired the hottest young major program assistant out there, Tommy Lloyd from Gonzaga. And he just became the first AZ coach ever to win 20 games in his first 4 seasons. This is a BAD year for them and they are 20-10, ranked 24, and have the #10 NET ranking. The team is well-coached. Kids always come to play. The offensive is cohesive and creative. They lost their arguably most important player for the season very early. Did they shut it down? Look for excuses? No. Lloyd just coached around it, and kids stepped up.

Oh and to be clear, they had the #35 composite recruiting class last fall according to 247 after losing 2 key guys to the NBA last season. Syracuse? #36. We are not talking about a top 10 type class.

Lloyd makes about $5 mill. It's not cheap, I know. And seeing the JMA Dome so empty is truly upsetting. Games that used to get 30K fans are lucky to get half of that now. But let me ask you this. Could an elite coach get 2K more people a game into the building? I think so. 20 games...2k more people...75 bucks a ticket. That's $3 million. And that's conservative. Simply getting that 15K back into the Duke game could be worth well over a million dollars to the University alone. But It's never been about what we can afford, but what we choose to spend and if we are willing to gamble in the short term for bigger gains later.

Look it is what it is. This feels like a dying basketball program, one in which the administration would rather move the goalposts and explain why we can't do things...why we can't compete...why we can't change coaches...why we can't go outside the program when we do...than make creative investments in the future. I hope Syracuse and its leaders make the decision to do what it takes to be a big time program again rather than seed the media with excuse after excuse as to why it can't be. But I'm sure glad I have another program to watch that seems to care enough to. I know many if not most of you don't. Arizona is an all time great program that acts like it. Syracuse acts like it's happy to be here and its fans should be too.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Arizona also hired a sht coach after Lute Olson. They moved on and were fine.

 

[JeffCuse]

Arizona also hired a sht coach after Lute Olson. They moved on and were fine.

That's true. They actually hired a coach that went 19-15 and knew that was a season beneath the standards of the program and he only got one season, even though he was named the "designated successor" post Lute.

 

[Cusefan0307]

That's true. They actually hired a coach that went 19-15 and knew that was a season beneath the standards of the program and he only got one season, even though he was named the "designated successor" post Lute.

A bit of revisionist history. He actually coached the year prior as well. That record was tied to Olson.

 

[JeffCuse]

A bit of revisionist history. He actually coached the year prior as well. That record was tied to Olson.

Underscores my point. Assistant under Lute. Lute tabbed him as the heir apparent. And he didn't even get a 2nd season after it was clear he was dragging the program down to levels they didn't belong at.

 

[RF2044]

There's a lot of truth to what you post.

Syracuse and the administration need to decide -- quickly -- what type of program they want to have moving forward. Because the way the last coaching change was made isn't going to cut it in P4 basketball. We are literally one of the WORST teams in the major conferences [as evidenced by abysmal KenPom and NET ratings]. Our rotations make no sense. Our players don't improve -- they regress. We can't play defense to save our lives.

All indicative of poor coaching.

This isn't going to cut it. SU needs to decide if we want to be BC or a team challenging for top 4 in the conference every year. The approach needs to follow suit, just as it did for Arizona. They bounced back QUICKLY even after a major scandal, because they hired a coach / staff who [while more unproven that I'd like to see for OUR situation] knew what they are doing.

Beyond a handful of posters, I doubt that anyone sees our staff in the same light. And for the record, this is a really down year for the ACC -- a year where we should have accidentally gotten to 20 wins. On top of that, we had a favorable schedule that was heavily loaded with the bottom teams in the conference. Even so, we posted a terrible record, and couldn't beat anybody [we might have gotten 1 win] above us in the conference standings, which is damning given how down the ACC outside of 2 or 3 teams.

Anyone who watches college basketball outside of just our games can see the difference. Teams at all levels play hard, get after it defensively, and have a structured offensive concept that their players execute properly. Not us.

In 10 years, we've gone from being ranked #1, to not even being ranked in the top 25 for years on end, to being a marginal bubble team, to not even being an NCAA qualifying team for an extended period of years, to being one of the worst teams in major conference P4 basketball. Sad, really.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Underscores my point. Assistant under Lute. Lute tabbed him as the heir apparent. And he didn't even get a 2nd season after it was clear he was dragging the program down to levels they didn't belong at.

He did get two years was my point. Lutes last year was O’Neill coaching. The next guy stunk too. I don't disagree they are doing well now, but it's not like they didn't recycle through a few guys.

 

[RF2044]

He did get two years was my point. Lutes last year was O’Neill coaching. The next guy stunk too. I don't disagree they are doing well now, but it's not like they didn't recycle through a few guys.

My recollection is that Lute Olsen stepped down at the 11th hour -- like, right before the season was going to begin. It might have been something that those inside the program / at the U of A anticipated, but it was a surprise to the rest of college basketball.

The timing necessitated an internal hire -- because what else were they going to do? And O'Neill was a former head coach, so he was the logical move under those circumstances / given the adverse timing.

That's different from a coach stepping down in say, May -- and the AD having time to go find a quality replacement.

 

[rocklloyd]

I find myself screaming “rebound” at the tv way more than I should. It’s all about want to and we don’t want the ball

 

[Cusefan0307]

My recollection is that Lute Olsen stepped down at the 11th hour -- like, right before the season was going to begin. It might have been something that those inside the program / at the U of A anticipated, but it was a surprise to the rest of college basketball.

The timing necessitated an internal hire -- because what else were they going to do? And O'Neill was a former head coach, so he was the logical move under those circumstances / given the adverse timing.

That's different from a coach stepping down in say, May -- and the AD having time to go find a quality replacement.

He was basically given the Hop treatment and was long the coach in waiting by Olson and had coached the previous season as well. You could be right and Olson could have waited to retire late on purpose to ensure his guy got the job.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Watching the game last night, I wasn't impressed with SMU very much. They play a loose offense like SU does and it seemed like most of their points came off of drives into the paint and throwing up prayers. They were also sleepwalking on defense and loose balls. I wouldn't put them in the tourney based on that game.

It's going to be an interesting offseason for SU. Once Red committed to JJ and Bell and Maliq bailed, I knew how this year would go. It'll be interesting to see who the targets are this year.

 

[Fly Rodder]

My recollection is that Lute Olsen stepped down at the 11th hour -- like, right before the season was going to begin. It might have been something that those inside the program / at the U of A anticipated, but it was a surprise to the rest of college basketball.

It was medical after he had an undiagnosed stroke.

 

[kingtidge]

Last night was weird for me. I settled in at 9pm ET to watch Syracuse basketball. Why? I really don't know. But I did. And I was actually pleasantly surprised with the first half performance. Possibly the best first half of the season by many metrics. Certainly passed the eye test. I even tweeted as much. Could they hold on?

Nope.

Same old same old. A 2nd half in which we just didn't adjust. We were outcoached at the half, again, and you could feel it just slipping away the whole time. Despondent, but unsurprised.

Then I turned on the University of Arizona game. Many of you know my son goes there (Bear Down) so it's become a 2nd team of sorts, and one which I pay close attention to. It was like night and day.

Arizona made a coaching change a few years ago, and it was a sudden coaching change because Sean Miller was a moron. And this is a University that has been in financial duress for many years (google it if you want...they are broke). And given the sudden nature of the change, and the fact this was not an expense they had planned for (or could afford), they had every opportunity and obligation to go cheap. Very cheap. And probably would have been justified. Yet, they didn't. They didn't stay in house. In the family. No, they hired the hottest young major program assistant out there, Tommy Lloyd from Gonzaga. And he just became the first AZ coach ever to win 20 games in his first 4 seasons. This is a BAD year for them and they are 20-10, ranked 24, and have the #10 NET ranking. The team is well-coached. Kids always come to play. The offensive is cohesive and creative. They lost their arguably most important player for the season very early. Did they shut it down? Look for excuses? No. Lloyd just coached around it, and kids stepped up.

Oh and to be clear, they had the #35 composite recruiting class last fall according to 247 after losing 2 key guys to the NBA last season. Syracuse? #36. We are not talking about a top 10 type class.

Lloyd makes about $5 mill. It's not cheap, I know. And seeing the JMA Dome so empty is truly upsetting. Games that used to get 30K fans are lucky to get half of that now. But let me ask you this. Could an elite coach get 2K more people a game into the building? I think so. 20 games...2k more people...75 bucks a ticket. That's $3 million. And that's conservative. Simply getting that 15K back into the Duke game could be worth well over a million dollars to the University alone. But It's never been about what we can afford, but what we choose to spend and if we are willing to gamble in the short term for bigger gains later.

Look it is what it is. This feels like a dying basketball program, one in which the administration would rather move the goalposts and explain why we can't do things...why we can't compete...why we can't change coaches...why we can't go outside the program when we do...than make creative investments in the future. I hope Syracuse and its leaders make the decision to do what it takes to be a big time program again rather than seed the media with excuse after excuse as to why it can't be. But I'm sure glad I have another program to watch that seems to care enough to. I know many if not most of you don't. Arizona is an all time great program that acts like it. Syracuse acts like it's happy to be here and its fans should be too.

Sobering read and comparison. Thx.

Not gonna sugarcoat it.

We appear to be an also-ran, unserious program at this point.

Every challenge is also an opportunity.

This offseason is an opportunity to change that.

 

[JustPherU]

I find myself screaming “rebound” at the tv way more than I should. It’s all about want to and we don’t want the ball

I’m more of a “ Are you kidding me” kind of guy.

 

[M2MPrinciples]

It was medical after he had an undiagnosed stroke.

He also took leave to deal with his divorce and was very flaky as to who would succeed him. O'Neill coached 2007-08, Lute said he was taking back over and then the school announced his retirement. Assistant Russ Pennell who was hired earlier that year took over as interim and led a 19-13 .500 conference team to the Sweet 16. But it wasn't enough for the school to keep him so they went with Sean Miller and it went from there.

So I don't think the proceedings are comparable, but as long as you're winning the fans will come back. And winning requires resources.

 

[JeffCuse]

He also took leave to deal with his divorce and was very flaky as to who would succeed him. O'Neill coached 2007-08, Lute said he was taking back over and then the school announced his retirement. Assistant Russ Pennell who was hired earlier that year took over as interim and led a 19-13 .500 conference team to the Sweet 16. But it wasn't enough for the school to keep him so they went with Sean Miller and it went from there.

So I don't think the proceedings are comparable, but as long as you're winning the fans will come back. And winning requires resources.

I mean...the comp is that they never let a coach who wasn't meeting the mark go longer than a season, two max if you count interim time. And when they were forced to make a VERY sudden change, which is post Miller, they went outside the family and spent despite really being in a financial crunch.

 

[JeffCuse]

I forgot to mention, University of Arizona's endowment is $1.2 Billion.
Syracuse University's is $2.1 Billion.

I know it's not a direct correlation but just trying to pre-empt "small private school with less resources" nonsense.

 

[Jasoncuse]

In 10 years, we've gone from being ranked #1, to not even being ranked in the top 25 for years on end, to being a marginal bubble team, to not even being an NCAA qualifying team for an extended period of years, to being one of the worst teams in major conference P4 basketball. Sad, really.

I would like to see more of the "well we made the FF in 2016 and the S16 in 2018" chatter return.

 

[Cusefan95]

A bit of revisionist history. He actually coached the year prior as well. That record was tied to Olson.

I think Lute Olson took a leave of absence at the start of the 07-08 season, and Kevin O’Neill was the coach. When Olson said he was coming back for 08-09, O’Neill left (rumored disagreements with Olson. Then Olson abruptly retired, Russ Pennell was named Head Coach - got the Wildcats to the NCAA tourney in his one year and was let go so they could bring in Sean Miller.

Arizona let a guy go after one season and an NCAA tourney bid. Syracuse is busily explaining to us why Red needs another shot after a sub-.500 season in his second year (and no NCAA in his first).

Arizona is a FANTASTIC example of how schools who are committed to winning operate. Syracuse is not operating that way - which is why I do not expect Syracuse to be a winning program anymore. We might get a dead cat bounce season here or there (just like football) - but the days of winning are gone and are not returning unless there’s a huge cultural shift at the university.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I think Lute Olson took a leave of absence at the start of the 07-08 season, and Kevin O’Neill was the coach. When Olson said he was coming back for 08-09, O’Neill left (rumored disagreements with Olson. Then Olson abruptly retired, Russ Pennell was named Head Coach - got the Wildcats to the NCAA tourney in his one year and was let go so they could bring in Sean Miller.

Arizona let a guy go after one season and an NCAA tourney bid. Syracuse is busily explaining to us why Red needs another shot after a sub-.500 season in his second year (and no NCAA in his first).

Arizona is a FANTASTIC example of how schools who are committed to winning operate. Syracuse is not operating that way - which is why I do not expect Syracuse to be a winning program anymore. We might get a dead cat bounce season here or there (just like football) - but the days of winning are gone and are not returning unless there’s a huge cultural shift at the university.

It helped that O'Neill was only named interim. He never had a contract so obviously no buyout. You are right on Pennell. I had the years wrong.

 

[JeffCuse]

Arizona let a guy go after one season and an NCAA tourney bid. Syracuse is busily explaining to us why Red needs another shot after a sub-.500 season in his second year (and no NCAA in his first).

And you have high profile media types in the market, not only disagreeing with, but actively mocking fans calling for a change.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Syracuse is busily explaining to us why Red needs another shot after a sub-.500 season in his second year (and no NCAA in his first).

The worst SRS ratings for Syracuse (per BBRef) since they started conference play in 79-80, are this season (24-25), 22-23, 81-82, and 23-24 (Red's first season). He may have won 19 games, but they weren't a very good team - especially by established Syracuse standards.

 

[Fishy]

My recollection is that Lute Olsen stepped down at the 11th hour -- like, right before the season was going to begin. It might have been something that those inside the program / at the U of A anticipated, but it was a surprise to the rest of college basketball.

The timing necessitated an internal hire -- because what else were they going to do? And O'Neill was a former head coach, so he was the logical move under those circumstances / given the adverse timing.

That's different from a coach stepping down in say, May -- and the AD having time to go find a quality replacement.

Yep.

Olson missed an entire season and Kevin O’Neill coached the team. Olson came back and basically fired O’Neill. And then something happened to him in the preseason that forced him to retire right as the regular season was about to start.

Arizona tried to give the interim job to Mike Dunlop, but he turned it down, so they gave it to Russ Pennell. There’s no way in hell Arizona would have ever offered either of those two the permanent job - was always gonna be an interim thing.

 

[UnknownOrange]

the upcoming basketball season is looking a whole hell of a lot like Dino Babers' 2023 campaign

hit these benchmarks or thanks for all that you've done for the Orange

 

[kingtidge]

Arizona is a FANTASTIC example of how schools who are committed to winning operate. Syracuse is not operating that way - which is why I do not expect Syracuse to be a winning program anymore. We might get a dead cat bounce season here or there (just like football) - but the days of winning are gone and are not returning unless there’s a huge cultural shift at the university.

This^^^^

Goal = Mediocrity with the least amount of money re-invested into the program as possible.

We're not mediocre, but historically bad, however.

Since we're running it back, "bad" is also acceptable if it can save a few $$.

We'll see how those savings look this time next year.