The rating we got at the beginning of the year was based on having Austin Nichols on the team. He was supposed to provide us with an inside presence and more scoring. He was thrown off the team for a rules violation before ACC play began. Most of our posters believe we would have be ranked in the pre-season ACC "standings" about where we ended up if he hadn't been on the roster at the beginning of the year, and probably not in many, if any, pre-season Top 25s.
We were on borrowed time on offense all year once Nichols was gone. Most of us hoped the good shooting would hold up or we could score "by committee". It didn't happen. The smoke dissipated and the mirrors fell down. When Wilkins left the UNC-W game because he was still sick, even the hard-core knew in their heart of hearts we weren't going to beat the Gators. No one says it was guaranteed we would have won if he played, but there could have been a different dynamic.
Next year most of the projections will have us starting in the middle of the pack in the ACC and probably as an AGV for the Top 25s (about where we finished).