USC, UCLA, Texas, OK are all eager to make more money regardless of likely future records as they face more quad 1 teams. Voters are not stupid. Killer conferences will send many teams to bowls. These teams might have mediocre records in conference and unblemished OOC records None of them are going to lobby for the addition of bottom feeders. Quad 4 wins mean nothing. Being a bottom feeder is not going to get us into a super-conference
SHORT VERSION:
Show your win distribution for the SEC (8 conference games annually) and B1G (9 conference games annually. The list the teams that will accept their fate as perennial losers and prove that fanbases and donors will support your position. This assumes each SEC and B1G wins every OOC game annually. Obviously, I will also demand that you prove the likelihood of your dream scenario, but for now, we will assume you are correct.
LONG VERSION:
The super conferences are allegedly leaving D1 when they break away. How will they play D1? That is the point of the alleged superconference, to become the NFL lite or NFL developmental league, if you prefer.
Even if the superconferences don't break away, they will play D1, the records will show they beat 3 or 4 bottom feeders and lost to 5-8 games in conference. How does that impress voters and Bowls? Especially if they fail to meet the requisite win total. Worse yet, the middle teams will lose some of the games against the lesser conferences.
You forget that the remaining D1 conferences will have the top of each conference with high win counts. The Big 12, PAC and ACC, as well as other conferences will have good win totals. You cannot justify selecting a 6-6 SEC team that has lost 6 conference games of 5 conference games and 1 OOC game over a 10, 11, 12 win ACC, Big12, PAC team for a playoff spot. Neither the fans nor the voters will accept that. Nor will the media. The ridicule will be too much for anyone of reason to accept that a 6-6 LSU is better that a 12 win FSU, Clemson, Washington, Baylor, Houston, etc.
Add to the above the fact that fans and donors LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida Tennessee, OU, UT, TAMU will not accept less that 9-10 wins, there is insufficient wins available to all of these schools. Add in Ole Miss, Arkansas, Mississippi State, USC-East and Mizzou fans will not accept less than 7-9 win seasons as the norm. This is the problem, there is not enough wins for everyone.
Assuming the SEC maintains an 8 conference 4 OOC game formula. Using your suggestion that the SEC wins every OOC game. This could happen periodically, but not every year, so this is your dream scenario. That leaves 8 conference games X 16 teams, (yes, 8X16 equals 126, but each game will involve two conference teams resulting in only 64 conference games) or 64 wins and 64 losses. Now the wins must be distributed:
The first and easiest example is that you have eight teams with 8 conference wins each and eight teams with zero wins, 64 wins and 64 losses, or eight teams that finish 12-0 and eight teams that finish 4-8. Which teams will accept their fate? (I'll give you Vandy and Kentucky)
A second scenario
- Lets be generous and allow four teams to win 8 conference games, this equals 32 wins of 64 and leaves 32 wins for the remaining 12 teams.
- Let's allow four teams to win 6 conference games, that's another 24 wins, leaving 8 wins (64- 32-24=8) for the remaining 8 teams.
- Lets allow four teams to win 2 conference games, that's the final 8 games (64-32-24-9=8=0), leaving four teams with zero conference wins.
You are free to create your own win distributions, the results are the same, too many bigwigs will no longer be bigwigs. Too many fans and donors will stop supporting the team or at least decrease their support.
Then do the same for the B1G. (Or rinse and repeat because the numbers do not work.)
Then factor in the fact that no conference has won every OOC game annually for any period of time, this destroys your scenario because no conference wins every OOC game year in and year out.
I am not trying to be a son of a gun, (I know, I am doing a good job of it, apologies) but I am attempting to have fans apply logic to the mess around SU sports. The internet mouth pieces speak loud, often, and without logic. When logic is applied, they all fall apart. It's like the GOR argument, if it was as easy as everyone claims, it would have happened already.