ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[HtownOrange]

So would the GOR fees drop (on an annual basis) after 2030 or just the exit fee?

Rights fees decrease each year. However, the exit fee will still apply. Even at FSU's modest assessment, that would be nearly $300MM in 2030.

 

[HtownOrange]

Obviously we should do everything we can to get into the B1G or SEC. But if we are left behind, is it worth going to the B12? At that point the B12 isn't top level FB, so does it matter if you are in the best non top level FB league vs being in the 3rd or 4th best non top level?

Sure we would make the most money joining that conference. But there is no way for SU to be consistently good in either sport. What is the point in more TV money if at the same time you decrease your chances at success? Which in turn will hurt fan engagement and result in lower revenues in tickets/donations?

I feel like joining the B12 is chasing a win when you have already lost.

I mostly agree with the above. If the P2 is formed and SU is not a part of the P2, the Big 12 will likely not be worth much anyway. A regional conference would suit SU better. I believe this will not be the end game unless SU ends up with another Shaw/Cantor Chancellor. I don't think the BOT will hire another non-sports minded Chancellor, not that sports should overshadow the SU mission, but rather, it will occupy its proper place and not be ignored. Just my take.

I respectfully disagree with your assessment that SU cannot be consistently good in either football or hoops. We have in the past and will be in the future.

 

[HtownOrange]

The $50M campaign to raise money to pay players? Seems odd that it came out last week and seemed rushed/poor quality (discussed elsewhere)... must have been some behind the scenes discussion of a potential settlement/fee restructuring that prompted Syracuse to get out in front of it.

Now it makes sense... if donors do not make up what the ACC will not be giving us any more... then we cannot compete in football. After a 10-win season, and Fran Brown, no excuses for fans/donors either. If not now, then never.

And, if we cannot pay for a good enough football team, we might as well accept lesser football status and prioritize hoops. Frankly, I am not sure Tulane is worse off than us in football. If they go 13-0, they have a chance.

Thanks for responding. Respectfully, I don't agree with your assessment. In General, SU has been doing everything it can to improve sports. The NIL changes are new and SU has done better than many schools. To expect that SU performs as well in the NIL era as UM, PSU, tOSU, UT, OU, Alabama, et al., is not a reasoned basis for comparison. SU has never had nor is it likely to have the money those schools have. Further, SU has historically be a fiscally responsible school, most private schools are. The Big State schools have the luxury of larger alumni bases and State funds to fall back on when needed.

Another issue is that SU's alumni base is less filled with STEM graduates than many state schools. Say what you want, but STEM grads will generally receive much more income and generate much more alumni based donations. Juxtapose TAMU which is largely STEM based graduates with insane amounts of donations. Not really a fair comparison in general but proves my point of the effect of STEM grads v. non-STEM grads.

 

[sufandu]

Closing in on 72 hours without a post in this thread so I decided to go real controversial:

If states no longer matter in this new age of internet streaming, markets no longer matter, and brands are end-all-be-all, what does the B1G do with Rutgers? Rutgers does not have influence in in NYC so they cannot "Bring" the Big Apple market and nor does Rutgers carry the state of NJ, further Rutgers" Athletics Department sucks so bad Congress looks like budget geniuses. Rutgers has no brand, unless you consider their entire history as a tomato soup can. What happens to to Rutgers? Do they get a permanent pass on the coattails of real ADs within the B1G or does the B1G cut their losses and look elsewhere?

If you are really brave and think Rutgers gets the Temple Treatment which team replaces Rutgers?

They keep them for an easy W every year. They don't need branding. They have it with enough teams and they're established as one of the P2. The leagues playing catch up need brands.

 

[Toga]

 

[richmondcuse03]

The $50M campaign to raise money to pay players? Seems odd that it came out last week and seemed rushed/poor quality (discussed elsewhere)... must have been some behind the scenes discussion of a potential settlement/fee restructuring that prompted Syracuse to get out in front of it.

Now it makes sense... if donors do not make up what the ACC will not be giving us any more... then we cannot compete in football. After a 10-win season, and Fran Brown, no excuses for fans/donors either. If not now, then never.

And, if we cannot pay for a good enough football team, we might as well accept lesser football status and prioritize hoops. Frankly, I am not sure Tulane is worse off than us in football. If they go 13-0, they have a chance.

The AD office was discussing the campaign as early as November and fundraising for it. I was at a meeting. It wasn't anything rushed. They get commitments behind the scenes first.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I mostly agree with the above. If the P2 is formed and SU is not a part of the P2, the Big 12 will likely not be worth much anyway. A regional conference would suit SU better. I believe this will not be the end game unless SU ends up with another Shaw/Cantor Chancellor. I don't think the BOT will hire another non-sports minded Chancellor, not that sports should overshadow the SU mission, but rather, it will occupy its proper place and not be ignored. Just my take.

I respectfully disagree with your assessment that SU cannot be consistently good in either football or hoops. We have in the past and will be in the future.

In the mega conference era we haven't been very consistent. In a Franken Big 12 we would have major disadvantages being in a conference with mostly non like schools.

Instead of a merged ACC/B12, I would like to see both realize that they are better off staying apart and trading programs based on location.

The Big East 2.0 would have 7 of 8 schools leftover. Ironically the worst program in the bunch would be in the P2. If you add BC from the OG Big East, UCF, and ACC leftover Wake, then you have a nice regional ACC.

Yes, the Big East 2.0 stunk. I wouldn't ever choose that to be SU's fate. But if you are left behind every option will suck.

For both sports you would have a bunch of traditional rivals. You have mostly like schools which makes it easier to compete. For BBall you have a few top programs which keeps respectability, and a few cupcakes to keep the top programs at decent records.

For the B12 you have a bunch of OG B12 teams, and OG SWC/new B12 teams in TCU, Houston, SMU that should get you to 10. If not there are a few schools in that region to fill the conference.

OG Big East BBall (4/9): BC, UConn, SU, Pitt
Big East 2.0 BBall (5/14): BC, UConn, SU, Pitt, West Virginia
OG Big East FB (4/8): BC, SU, Pitt, West Virginia
Big East 2.0 FB (7/8): UConn, SU, Pitt, West Virginia, Cincy, Louisville, USF
ACC 4.0 (5/14): Wake, BC, SU, Pitt, Louisville

 

[AcAndAc]

The AD office was discussing the campaign as early as November and fundraising for it. I was at a meeting. It wasn't anything rushed. They get commitments behind the scenes first.

OK. But the announcement seemed rushed... maybe to beat the settlement.

 

[AcAndAc]

In the mega conference era we haven't been very consistent. In a Franken Big 12 we would have major disadvantages being in a conference with mostly non like schools.

Instead of a merged ACC/B12, I would like to see both realize that they are better off staying apart and trading programs based on location.

The Big East 2.0 would have 7 of 8 schools leftover. Ironically the worst program in the bunch would be in the P2. If you add BC from the OG Big East, UCF, and ACC leftover Wake, then you have a nice regional ACC.

Yes, the Big East 2.0 stunk. I wouldn't ever choose that to be SU's fate. But if you are left behind every option will suck.

For both sports you would have a bunch of traditional rivals. You have mostly like schools which makes it easier to compete. For BBall you have a few top programs which keeps respectability, and a few cupcakes to keep the top programs at decent records.

For the B12 you have a bunch of OG B12 teams, and OG SWC/new B12 teams in TCU, Houston, SMU that should get you to 10. If not there are a few schools in that region to fill the conference.

OG Big East BBall (4/9): BC, UConn, SU, Pitt
Big East 2.0 BBall (5/14): BC, UConn, SU, Pitt, West Virginia
OG Big East FB (4/8): BC, SU, Pitt, West Virginia
Big East 2.0 FB (7/8): UConn, SU, Pitt, West Virginia, Cincy, Louisville, USF
ACC 4.0 (5/14): Wake, BC, SU, Pitt, Louisville

I could see a big merger to try to keep up with SEC/B1G. 24-32 schools in 3-6 pods/divisions. 6-8 team playoff with 1-2 teams being allowed to compete with the SEC/B1G in their playoff with 5-6 teams each. If it ended up with Syracuse being in a regional conference with BC, UConn, Pitt, WVU, Louisville, Va Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, etc... so be it. About the best we can hope for.

 

[Moontan]

In the end, the conference was scheduled to die in 2036. FSU and Clemson would have to see what they could get. By pushing this out from now to 2031, and yet making it certain to try to predict/react/prepare, who knows what will happen? At least Wildhack scheduled us a momentum-damaging season next year in football and is destroying the hoops program.

They were scheduled to pick up East coast B12 schools well before then.

 

[JimBoston]

According to the ESPN article, it would cost any school leaving the ACC after the 2029/2030 season "less than $100 million" to exit the ACC including both exit fees and GORs.

Sources: FSU, Clemson, ACC expected to settle

 

[0.2 YNdeeR]

According to the ESPN article, it would cost any school leaving the ACC after the 2029/2030 season "less than $100 million" to exit the ACC including both exit fees and GORs.

Sources: FSU, Clemson, ACC expected to settle

Why would any school besides the Clemmies and FSU agree to this? For being AH's and attempting to rupture the conference over ego and money (and promptly, in FSU's case, tanking), we'll reward you with an asymmetric revenue stream and a lower bar for you to bolt in the future? I'd tell them to take a hike.

 

[Cusefan0307]

According to the ESPN article, it would cost any school leaving the ACC after the 2029/2030 season "less than $100 million" to exit the ACC including both exit fees and GORs.

Sources: FSU, Clemson, ACC expected to settle

I read that it doesn't matter if they leave. The ACC would still hold their media rights until 2036 and the GOR cannot be broken. I could be wrong though.

 

[JimBoston]

I read that it doesn't matter if they leave. The ACC would still hold their media rights until 2036 and the GOR cannot be broken. I could be wrong though.

Basically, the agreement defines the financial cost to leave the conference including buying their media rights. My guess is Syracuse is one of the schools that will get a cut in media revenues.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Basically, the agreement defines the financial cost to leave the conference including buying their media rights. My guess is Syracuse is one of the schools that will get a cut in media revenues.

Well probably be in the top half.

 

[NJneer12]

At this point, I'm defeated.

Go independent in FB and get a media deal with Yes Network.

 

[Toga]

At this point, I'm defeated.

Go independent in FB and get a media deal with Yes Network.

Hofstra

 

[Scooch]

No one should be suggesting that the GoR is breakable. It's not.

What we don't know is if the settlement allows for a GoR "buyout" post 2030. It's possible that there is a sliding scale where by, say, 2033 a school could pay a $75M exit fee plus a $150M GoR buyout to leave the conference.

 

[HtownOrange]

According to the ESPN article, it would cost any school leaving the ACC after the 2029/2030 season "less than $100 million" to exit the ACC including both exit fees and GORs.

Sources: FSU, Clemson, ACC expected to settle

I think that portion of the article is poorly written article, probably to get the lead on the story. Nobody knows the real numbers and ESPN must be involved if the GOR is being breached. ESPN is not a party to the lawsuits and things people say without all the facts are to be take with a grain of salt. Presently, the annual payout is $40MM+, it is difficult to imagine that ESPN will agree to less than $100MM when the last six years of the agreement are more than $240MM, especially when ESPN is not a part of the lawsuits and settlement.

The exit fee is presently north of $120MM, reducing that alone to less than $100MM is a big enough issue.

Regardless, this is a terrible deal, I hope SU votes against any and all unequal revenue sharing, especially based on ratings. Even sucky FSU was placed on better networks when they should have been streamed on ACCN+ receiving ratings when others cannot get ratings because the ACCN and streaming are not mesured.

 

[Toga]

No one should be suggesting that the GoR is breakable. It's not.

What we don't know is if the settlement allows for a GoR "buyout" post 2030. It's possible that there is a sliding scale where by, say, 2033 a school could pay a $75M exit fee plus a $150M GoR buyout to leave the conference.

Dumb question. Re GOR, who exactly receives that money and is it lump sum?

 

[AcAndAc]

No one should be suggesting that the GoR is breakable. It's not.

What we don't know is if the settlement allows for a GoR "buyout" post 2030. It's possible that there is a sliding scale where by, say, 2033 a school could pay a $75M exit fee plus a $150M GoR buyout to leave the conference.

No, there is only one exit fee total. So, FSU went from looking at $300K to buyout, plus another $400k to buy the rights to their media to give to a new conference... to... getting an extra $10-$15-$30M per year PLUS a one-time fee that goes down to under $100M in 2031 or so.

Big win for FSU/Clemson. As for the rest of the conference, FSU/Clemson made it clear that they were leaving for greener pastures. They were gone in 2036. Poof. Now, there is at least a chance that it might be viewed too difficult to justify leaving in 2031. Plus, it forces the B1G and SEC to pay them a full share if they want to leave then too. Not as bad as you think.

Anyone thinking Syracuse will be in the top half of distributions is nuts. If this was 2012 with Boeheim at his best, maybe basketball would help. But a 10 win season is not enough to move the viewership dial at all. And when we inevitably win 4 or more less games next year... so much for that. Wildhack seems to be swinging and missing on everything other than Fran Brown (and we will see how well that turns out in 2-3 years).

 

[JimBoston]

No, there is only one exit fee total. So, FSU went from looking at $300K to buyout, plus another $400k to buy the rights to their media to give to a new conference... to... getting an extra $10-$15-$30M per year PLUS a one-time fee that goes down to under $100M in 2031 or so.

Big win for FSU/Clemson. As for the rest of the conference, FSU/Clemson made it clear that they were leaving for greener pastures. They were gone in 2036. Poof. Now, there is at least a chance that it might be viewed too difficult to justify leaving in 2031. Plus, it forces the B1G and SEC to pay them a full share if they want to leave then too. Not as bad as you think.

Schools can leave for the 2030 (football)/2031 (basketball) seasons for "less than $100 million if they have a better offer. That is 5 years from now.

 

[orange79]

Dumb question. Re GOR, who exactly receives that money and is it lump sum?

If FSU walks out the door today, they don't get the conference paycheck for TV rights (and other revenue) as determined by the GOR, as they do now. And wouldn't until the current contract is up (2036). In other words, they have ceded all monetary rights to the conference. If they stayed, they would receive an annual payout as all teams now do. At least, that's how I understand it.

Is that what you are asking?

 

[dan7800]

Why would any school besides the Clemmies and FSU agree to this? For being AH's and attempting to rupture the conference over ego and money (and promptly, in FSU's case, tanking), we'll reward you with an asymmetric revenue stream and a lower bar for you to bolt in the future? I'd tell them to take a hike.

Agreed. Why even negotiate?

 

[Scooch]

If FSU walks out the door today, they don't get the conference paycheck for TV rights (and other revenue) as determined by the GOR, as they do now. And wouldn't until the current contract is up (2036). In other words, they have ceded all monetary rights to the conference. If they stayed, they would receive an annual payout as all teams now do. At least, that's how I understand it.

Is that what you are asking?

Yup, the ACC owns the rights to distribute and monetize all member school's media rights as they see fit through 2036.

If Florida State left the ACC today and became independent they would not be able to license the rights to their football games. Because those rights are owned by the ACC. Theoretically the ACC could launch Seminoles+, produce all of their games and sell a subscription for the service to fans, and not share a dime with FSU.

This same concept applies to entertainment...

A few years ago the Paramount corporation decided to license the right to stream the show Yellowstone to NBCU's Peacock service. A year later Paramount then decided to launch their own streaming service but couldn't make available to subscribers it's most popular show. Because they granted those rights to NBCU for a lengthy term.