ACC Tournament projection 5.0 w/who we want to win this week.

[Alsacs]

1. North Carolina 13-3 Clinched 1 seed
2. Florida State 11-5, 1-0 vs. ND and 1-0 vs. UL
3. Louisville 11-5, win over Duke gives them 3 over ND.
4.Notre Dame 11-5 _____Bye into the Quarterfinals

5. Duke 10-6, win over ND gives 5 over Miami
6.Miami 10-6
7. Virginia 9-7 wins over UL gives 7 over VPI
8.Virginia Tech 9-7
9.Syracuse 9-8 ______Bye into the Second Round

10. Wake Forest 7-9 1-0 vs. GT
11. Georgia Tech 7-9
12.Clemson 4-12 1-0 vs. Pitt
13. Pitt 4-12
14. NC State 4-13
15. Boston College 2-14

All games are on ESPN, ESPN2 or the ACC Network

First Round Tuesday March 7th

Game 1- #12 seed Clemson vs. #13 seed Pitt @ 12:00
Game 2 - #10 seed Wake Forest vs. #15 seed Boston College @ 2:00
Game 3 - #11 seed Georgia Tech vs. #14 seed NC State @ 7:00

Second Round Wednesday March 8th

Game 4 - #8 seed Virginia Tech vs. #9 seed Syracuse @ Noon
Game 5- #5 seed Duke vs. Game 1 winner @ 2:30
Game 6 - #7 seed Virginia vs. Game 2 winner@ 7:00
Game 7- #6 seed Miami vs. Game 3winner @ 9:30

Quarterfinals Thursday March 9th

Game 8 - #1 seed North Carolina vs. Game 4 winner @ Noon
Game 9 - #4 seed Notre Dame vs. Game 5 winner @ 2:30
Game 10 - #2 seed Florida State vs. Game 6 winner @ 7:00
Game 11- #3 seed Louisville vs. Game 7 winner @ 9:30

Semifinals Friday March 10th

Game 11 - Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner @ 7:00
Game 12 - Game 10 winner vs. Game 11 winner @ 9:30

Finals Saturday March 11th

Game 13 - Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner @ 9:00

Schedule 2-27-17 to 3-5-17 with who want to win analysis
Monday
North Carolina at Virginia- SU wants UNC
Miami at Virginia Tech- SU wants VPI to beat Miami or if Miami wins then we need Wake to beat VPI as well.

Tuesday
Florida State at Duke- SU wants FSU to beat Duke.
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech- SU wants Pitt to win so we are guaranteed a top 9 seed.

Wednesday
NC State at Clemson- SU doesn't care
BC at Notre Dame- SU doesn't care
Louisville at Wake- SU doesn't care.

Saturday
Pitt at Virginia- SU wants Pitt to keep UVA below us.
Notre Dame at Louisville- SU wants ND because if we get the 7 seed we have a better chance against them.
Miami at Florida State- SU wants FSU so we can catch Miami.
Georgia Tech at Syracuse- SU obviously wants itself to win.
BC at Clemson- SU doesn't care.
Wake at Virginia Tech- SU wants VPI to lose.
Duke at UNC- SU wants Duke to lose.

 

[jdubs30]

So the only way we don't get the double bye is if GaTech goes 2-0 and we lose to GaTech, correct? We have the tiebreaker with Wake.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Am I wrong saying that I like the #10 seed line better than the #9 seed. BC/Virginia/Florida State sounds a little easier than VaTech/UNC.

 

[Alsacs]

So the only way we don't get the double bye is if GaTech goes 2-0 and we lose to GaTech, correct? We have the tiebreaker with Wake.

Correct only way we play Tuesday is if Ga. Tech goes 2-0.

 

[jdubs30]

Am I wrong saying that I like the #10 seed line better than the #9 seed. BC/Virginia/Florida State sounds a little easier than VaTech/UNC.

Only in that if we get the 10, that means we lost to GaTech. It also means we probably need 1 more win. It also means that beating BC wouldn't really mean anything which means we would need a 2nd win.

I agree the 10 is an easier path - but beating GaTech Saturday and getting the double bye is the easier way to an at-large

 

[Trueblue25]

Anyway we can avoid VPI/ND/UNC entirely, I'm in.

 

[djorange1989]

Correct only way we play Tuesday is if Ga. Tech goes 2-0.

We actually will get a single bye, not a double bye. The top 4 teams get double byes

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Only in that if we get the 10, that means we lost to GaTech. It also means we probably need 1 more win. It also means that beating BC wouldn't really mean anything which means we would need a 2nd win.

I agree the 10 is an easier path - but beating GaTech Saturday and getting the double bye is the easier way to an at-large

That's true. I forgot that a win Saturday is still very important at this point.

 

[Briancuse]

1. North Carolina 13-3 Clinched 1 seed
2. Florida State 11-5, 1-0 vs. ND and 1-0 vs. UL
3. Louisville 11-5, win over Duke gives them 3 over ND.
4.Notre Dame 11-5 _____Bye into the Quarterfinals

5. Duke 10-6, win over ND gives 5 over Miami
6.Miami 10-6
7. Virginia 9-7 wins over UL gives 7 over VPI
8.Virginia Tech 9-7
9.Syracuse 9-8 ______Bye into the Second Round

10. Wake Forest 7-9 1-0 vs. GT
11. Georgia Tech 7-9
12.Clemson 4-12 1-0 vs. Pitt
13. Pitt 4-12
14. NC State 4-13
15. Boston College 2-14

All games are on ESPN, ESPN2 or the ACC Network

First Round Tuesday March 7th

Game 1- #12 seed Clemson vs. #13 seed Pitt @ 12:00
Game 2 - #10 seed Wake Forest vs. #15 seed Boston College @ 2:00
Game 3 - #11 seed Georgia Tech vs. #14 seed NC State @ 7:00

Second Round Wednesday March 8th

Game 4 - #8 seed Virginia Tech vs. #9 seed Syracuse @ Noon
Game 5- #5 seed Duke vs. Game 1 winner @ 2:30
Game 6 - #7 seed Virginia vs. Game 2 winner@ 7:00
Game 7- #6 seed Miami vs. Game 3winner @ 9:30

Quarterfinals Thursday March 9th

Game 8 - #1 seed North Carolina vs. Game 4 winner @ Noon
Game 9 - #4 seed Notre Dame vs. Game 5 winner @ 2:30
Game 10 - #2 seed Florida State vs. Game 6 winner @ 7:00
Game 11- #3 seed Louisville vs. Game 7 winner @ 9:30

Semifinals Friday March 10th

Game 11 - Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner @ 7:00
Game 12 - Game 10 winner vs. Game 11 winner @ 9:30

Finals Saturday March 11th

Game 13 - Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner @ 9:00

Schedule 2-27-17 to 3-5-17 with who want to win analysis
Monday
North Carolina at Virginia- SU wants UNC
Miami at Virginia Tech- SU wants VPI to beat Miami or if Miami wins then we need Wake to beat VPI as well.

Tuesday
Florida State at Duke- SU wants FSU to beat Duke.
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech- SU wants Pitt to win so we are guaranteed a top 9 seed.

Wednesday
NC State at Clemson- SU doesn't care
BC at Notre Dame- SU doesn't care
Louisville at Wake- SU doesn't care.

Saturday
Pitt at Virginia- SU wants Pitt to keep UVA below us.
Notre Dame at Louisville- SU wants ND because if we get the 7 seed we have a better chance against them.
Miami at Florida State- SU wants FSU so we can catch Miami.
Georgia Tech at Syracuse- SU obviously wants itself to win.
BC at Clemson- SU doesn't care.
Wake at Virginia Tech- SU wants VPI to lose.
Duke at UNC- SU wants Duke to lose.

I am glad you added the who we want to win category, I was just thinking about it, and was going to start a thread. Wouldn't we want duke to beat unc, to make our win over them look even better?

 

[Alsacs]

I am glad you added the who we want to win category, I was just thinking about it, and was going to start a thread. Wouldn't we want duke to beat unc, to make our win over them look even better?

If Duke loses to FSU and UNC and we beat Ga. Tech we are very likely to avoid the 8-9 game. I want to avoid the 8-9 game.

 

[Briancuse]

If Duke loses to FSU and UNC and we beat Ga. Tech we are very likely to avoid the 8-9 game. I want to avoid the 8-9 game.

Gotcha, I am going on the assumption that they will beat Fsu, if somehow they don't, it makes sense.

 

[Chris02M]

i think we all want to avoid the 8-9 game

 

[jncuse]

Alsacs - "Is the who we want to win" purely in the context of ACC seeding and not NCAA tournament?

 

[W'boro'Cuse315]

1. North Carolina 13-3 Clinched 1 seed
2. Florida State 11-5, 1-0 vs. ND and 1-0 vs. UL
3. Louisville 11-5, win over Duke gives them 3 over ND.
4.Notre Dame 11-5 _____Bye into the Quarterfinals

5. Duke 10-6, win over ND gives 5 over Miami
6.Miami 10-6
7. Virginia 9-7 wins over UL gives 7 over VPI
8.Virginia Tech 9-7
9.Syracuse 9-8 ______Bye into the Second Round

10. Wake Forest 7-9 1-0 vs. GT
11. Georgia Tech 7-9
12.Clemson 4-12 1-0 vs. Pitt
13. Pitt 4-12
14. NC State 4-13
15. Boston College 2-14

All games are on ESPN, ESPN2 or the ACC Network

First Round Tuesday March 7th

Game 1- #12 seed Clemson vs. #13 seed Pitt @ 12:00
Game 2 - #10 seed Wake Forest vs. #15 seed Boston College @ 2:00
Game 3 - #11 seed Georgia Tech vs. #14 seed NC State @ 7:00

Second Round Wednesday March 8th

Game 4 - #8 seed Virginia Tech vs. #9 seed Syracuse @ Noon
Game 5- #5 seed Duke vs. Game 1 winner @ 2:30
Game 6 - #7 seed Virginia vs. Game 2 winner@ 7:00
Game 7- #6 seed Miami vs. Game 3winner @ 9:30

Quarterfinals Thursday March 9th

Game 8 - #1 seed North Carolina vs. Game 4 winner @ Noon
Game 9 - #4 seed Notre Dame vs. Game 5 winner @ 2:30
Game 10 - #2 seed Florida State vs. Game 6 winner @ 7:00
Game 11- #3 seed Louisville vs. Game 7 winner @ 9:30

Semifinals Friday March 10th

Game 11 - Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner @ 7:00
Game 12 - Game 10 winner vs. Game 11 winner @ 9:30

Finals Saturday March 11th

Game 13 - Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner @ 9:00

Schedule 2-27-17 to 3-5-17 with who want to win analysis
Monday
North Carolina at Virginia- SU wants UNC
Miami at Virginia Tech- SU wants VPI to beat Miami or if Miami wins then we need Wake to beat VPI as well.

Tuesday
Florida State at Duke- SU wants FSU to beat Duke.
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech- SU wants Pitt to win so we are guaranteed a top 9 seed.

Wednesday
NC State at Clemson- SU doesn't care
BC at Notre Dame- SU doesn't care
Louisville at Wake- SU doesn't care.

Saturday
Pitt at Virginia- SU wants Pitt to keep UVA below us.
Notre Dame at Louisville- SU wants ND because if we get the 7 seed we have a better chance against them.
Miami at Florida State- SU wants FSU so we can catch Miami.
Georgia Tech at Syracuse- SU obviously wants itself to win.
BC at Clemson- SU doesn't care.
Wake at Virginia Tech- SU wants VPI to lose.
Duke at UNC- SU wants Duke to lose.

I seriously applaud your effort on these.

 

[Alsacs]

Alsacs - "Is the who we want to win" purely in the context of ACC seeding and not NCAA tournament?

I did it in context of ACC seeding. I think we make the tournament if we beat GT.
I just want to avoid the 8-9 game badly that is who we want to win comes from.

 

[Briancuse]

I did it in context of ACC seeding. I think we make the tournament if we beat GT.
I just want to avoid the 8-9 game badly that is who we want to win comes from.

I do too, who wants to play at noon, and have to come with an excuse to get out of work, but I think we should be thinking of how to get in the tournament, first and foremost.

 

[jncuse]

I did it in context of ACC seeding. I think we make the tournament if we beat GT.
I just want to avoid the 8-9 game badly that is who we want to win comes from.

Thanks. That is what I thought.

 

[cuse522]

I do too, who wants to play at noon, and have to come with an excuse to get out of work, but I think we should be thinking of how to get in the tournament, first and foremost.

They are one and the same, if you feel that winning a game in the ACCT does more for our tournament resume than an already-impressive Duke win looking incrementally better.

In the 8/9 game we'd have a tough opponent and probably be about 50-50 to win, and then probably 90-10 to lose. As the 7-seed, we'd get the winner of the 10/15 game, and likely be in the 65-35 range, then play someone other than UNC (we'd avoid them all the way to the title game) so we'd be more in the 70-30 dog range instead of 90-10. Basically, if you simmed it a million times, we'd win way more games in this year's ACCT as a 7-seed than an 8/9-seed. I'm talking like 60%+ more wins.

 

[Brooky03]

We really need to get the 7. The 8 or 9 is awful.

It's conceivable that Duke, Miami, VT, UVa, and us could tie at 10-8, yes? If that happens, we have the tie breaker over all but VT. So the 6 seed is possible, though unlikely?

 

[djorange1989]

We really need to get the 7. The 8 or 9 is awful.

It's conceivable that Duke, Miami, VT, UVa, and us could tie at 10-8, yes? If that happens, we have the tie breaker over all but VT. So the 6 seed is possible, though unlikely?

In a four way tie with these teams we would be the 6 seed. It isn't very likely mostly because Va Tech will have to lose to Wake at home(after beating Miami). I think UVA will end up 10-8. Miami too. Duke has two very tough games and Allen is out with an injury so they could lose to both FSU and NC. I think they will find a way to beat FSU in their home finale however. We need to beat Tech and hope that at least we tie Miami and UVA then we get 7 and a likely 3rd game in less than 3 weeks against Ga Tech. Forget about the next round, Ville will likely be out opposition. Just win the next two and we will be ok

 

[longtimefan]

We really need to get the 7. The 8 or 9 is awful.

It's conceivable that Duke, Miami, VT, UVa, and us could tie at 10-8, yes? If that happens, we have the tie breaker over all but VT. So the 6 seed is possible, though unlikely?

If all 5 you listed end at 10-8 (a long shot, to be sure), SU might get the 5 seed.

 

[Alsacs]

We really need to get the 7. The 8 or 9 is awful.

It's conceivable that Duke, Miami, VT, UVa, and us could tie at 10-8, yes? If that happens, we have the tie breaker over all but VT. So the 6 seed is possible, though unlikely?

If Duke and Miami goes to 0-2.
VPI loses to Wake.
Virginia beats Pitt
Syracuse beats Georgia Tech.

They would all be 10-8.
Syracuse went 3-1 against these 4.
Duke went 2-3.
Miami went 3-2 with a game tonight against VPI.
Virginia Tech went 3-1 with a game tonight with Miami.
Virginia went 1-4.

Thus VPI would be 5,
Syracuse would be 6,
Miami would be 7,
Duke would be 8,
Virginia would be 9.

 

[Brooky03]

If Duke and Miami goes to 0-2.
VPI loses to Wake.
Virginia beats Pitt
Syracuse beats Georgia Tech.

They would all be 10-8.
Syracuse went 3-1 against these 4.
Duke went 2-3.
Miami went 3-2 with a game tonight against VPI.
Virginia Tech went 3-1 with a game tonight with Miami.
Virginia went 1-4.

Thus VPI would be 5,
Syracuse would be 6,
Miami would be 7,
Duke would be 8,
Virginia would be 9.

You, sir, are a gentleman and a scholar.

 

[DonLightfoot]

I seriously applaud your effort on these.

I agree. The time and effort to compile this is much appreciated

 

[Briancuse]

If all 5 you listed end at 10-8 (a long shot, to be sure), SU might get the 5 seed.

So without doing all the math, the best we can get is the 5 seed, and the worst would be 10?